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Lecture H (2021-10-26): Verification, Validation, and Calibration of Simulation Models
IEE 475: Simulating Stochastic Systems
English - October 26, 2021 21:03Courses Education simulation stochastic des dess discrete event system industrial engineering modeling Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
In this lecture, we review summary statistics, MLE, and goodness-of-fit tests (particularly Chi-square and Kolmogorov–Smirnov, with some mention of Anderson–Darling and Shapiro–Wilk), with a particular focus on the type-I error, type-II error, and statistical power. We then introduce verification, validation, and calibration of simulation models and close with an example for the simulation of a bank. We use rigorous statistical methods to drive the calibration process that leads to updating the model of the bank and ensuring its outputs are a good statistical match for outputs in a real bank. This involves making use of a power analysis for a one-sample, two-sided t-test. We will cover the paired t-test version of this problem in the next lecture.