Should we be listening any more?

A journalist on a national publication recently asked this question: “Should we be listening any more?” The writer was referring to the latest property price forecasts from National Australia Bank and pointed out NAB’s terrible record on predicting house prices. I wholeheartedly agree. I wish more journalists would challenge the major banks on their real estate predictions. It’s not just NAB: the property forecast track record of senior economists employed by all of the Big 4 banks is laughably bad. I often wonder how senior economists working for Westpac, ANZ, NAB and CommBank keep their jobs, given how often they predict negative price outcomes and are proven spectacularly wrong.