Frontrunner
198 episodes - English - Latest episode: 5 days ago -Frontrunner is the weekly grain marketing update from Frontier Agriculture. Covering wheat, barley, oilseed rape, pulses, seeds and fertiliser, we make sure growers can keep up to date with the latest developments while on the go.
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Episodes
Frontrunner - 29th April 2022
April 29, 2022 15:01 - 13 minutes - 18.7 MBThere are new contract highs for 2022 European new crop wheat futures this week, as markets continue to react to the longer-term threats to Black Sea wheat supplies - particularly those from Ukraine. The London November 2022 contract passed £300/t for the first time and the old crop May 2022 contract set a new record with a high of £332.20/t. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is...
Frontrunner - 22nd April 2022
April 22, 2022 14:34 - 12 minutes - 17.1 MBEuropean wheat futures started the post-easter bank holiday weekend with strong gains, with both the Paris and London new crop markets setting new contract highs in early trade following stronger US wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures were higher on the latest crop condition report and the overall situation is worse than trade expectations. Winter wheat slipped two points to just 30% good/excellent, this compares to 53% last year and trade expectations at 33%. The crop condi...
Frontrunner - 14th April 2022
April 14, 2022 15:06 - 11 minutes - 16.4 MBNew crop European wheat futures rallied further this week and set new contract highs, reflecting trade concerns around the prospect of a long-term conflict between Ukraine and Russia. London November 2022 wheat futures briefly touched £295/t, almost double its initial trades and the contract low made in September 2020. The extent of the loss of Ukraine as one of the world’s major grain exporters was highlighted by comments from a Ukrainian official, who said corn exports this season would be...
Frontrunner - 8th April 2022
April 08, 2022 14:26 - 12 minutes - 17 MBGrain markets have continued to see volatile trading and early in the week US wheat futures rallied following the first 2022 national crop condition and progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter wheat crops are in a particularly poor condition, with ratings as bad as they have ever been at this time of year, with the exception of the 1996 crop. Crops have suffered from prolonged dry conditions, expanding drought and storms in December. During current i...
Frontrunner - 1st April 2022
April 01, 2022 14:39 - 10 minutes - 14.4 MBWheat markets continue to experience notable price volatility in response to developments in the conflict in Ukraine. US wheat futures fell sharply on Tuesday to their lower trading limit and to their lowest level since 1st March. This is in response to encouraging comments made in peace talks being held in Istanbul. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier custome...
Frontrunner - 25th March 2022
March 25, 2022 17:09 - 12 minutes - 17.9 MBThe escalating conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent fears for future wheat supplies from the Black Sea led to extreme volatility in the wheat market this week, resulting in new record highs for futures markets. Wheat futures rose to their highest on record this week, with Paris futures exceeding €400/t and London futures rising above £300/t, breaking the previous record set in 2008. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a ...
Frontrunner - 18th March 2022
March 18, 2022 16:18 - 12 minutes - 2.79 MBWheat futures continued to see volatile trading this week as the trade reacted to the impact of the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There were early notable falls in prices with reports that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were making some headway and that all five of Russia’s Black Sea ports were operating normally for grain shipments. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our M...
Frontrunner - 11th March 2022
March 11, 2022 17:24 - 13 minutes - 3.04 MBThe escalating conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent fears for future wheat supplies from the Black Sea led to extreme volatility in the wheat market this week, resulting in new record highs for futures markets. Wheat futures rose to their highest on record this week, with Paris futures exceeding €400/t and London futures rising above £300/t, breaking the previous record set in 2008. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a ...
Frontrunner - 4th March 2022
March 04, 2022 16:11 - 14 minutes - 19.3 MBWheat markets have been extremely volatile this week due to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. London old crop wheat futures hit a high, which was more than £50/t above last week’s closing prices, and in doing so set a record high for the market. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures climbed up by over 30% to their highest figure for 14 years, although remained below the all-time highest figure of $13.49/t which was set in February 2008. Frontier farm trader, Ollie Wilson...
Frontrunner - 25th February 2022
February 25, 2022 16:08 - 10 minutes - 2.44 MBRussia’s invasion of Ukraine this week triggered unparalleled price movements in commodity markets. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures posted gains of almost 20% on last Friday’s close and, at their peak, were at their highest level since 2008. Fear, panic and speculative trade exaggerated futures price gains but the world’s wheat importers have lost access to a primary supplier of wheat and corn as military action brought a halt to commercial shipping and Ukraine’s ports shut dow...
Frontrunner - 18th February 2022
February 18, 2022 14:30 - 12 minutes - 17.3 MBWorld wheat markets have seen less volatile trading than they have over the past three to four weeks, but prices continue to be underpinned by the worsening situation in Ukraine. US President Biden said on Thursday that there was now every indication that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine in the next few days. Should this be the case, it seems likely there would be interruptions to wheat exports from the Black Sea region, which is a serious concern considering that Russia, Ukraine and Rom...
Frontrunner - 11th February 2022
February 11, 2022 16:34 - 10 minutes - 14.3 MBThe threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to generate price volatility in world wheat markets. The week started with an optimistic view from traders that a diplomatic solution to the tensions could be found following a seemingly successful meeting between French president Emmanuel Macron and Russian president Vladimir Putin. This triggered a bout of selling on futures markets on Tuesday. However, later in the week, military exercises between Russia and Belarus led Ukraine to...
Frontrunner - 4th February 2022
February 04, 2022 16:54 - 10 minutes - 14.6 MBFollowing last week’s notable volatility, wheat markets started this week making sharp loses and struggled to find any form of recovery. The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains and, should this be realised, wheat futures prices would rally again. Speculative longs have, however, been encouraged by progress with diplomatic solutions, with many having subsequently taken the exit, bringing futures prices down in the process. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more inf...
Frontrunner - 28th January 2022
January 28, 2022 16:14 - 8 minutes - 11.1 MBThe world’s wheat markets have seen significant price volatility this week. Fuelled by news reports of increased tension between Russia and the Ukraine, short covering and speculative buying extended gains on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures by 6% by the close of Tuesday and took the market to its highest level since the end of November last year. Subsequent diplomatic efforts gave markets confidence a solution to the tensions between Russia and the west might be found, easing sp...
Frontrunner - 21st January 2022
January 21, 2022 15:23 - 14 minutes - 3.24 MBWorld wheat markets rallied sharply this week, reacting to mainstream media reports of increasing tension between Russia and the Ukraine. This was highlighted by Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which gained over 7% and, in doing so, recaptured all the losses they had made so far in 2022. The short covering and speculative buying are understandable given the potential disruption to international trade should conflict develop. Russia is the world’s primary wheat exporter with as...
Frontrunner - 14th January 2022
January 14, 2022 16:05 - 11 minutes - 15.4 MBWorld wheat prices have fallen again this week, which was highlighted by London wheat futures. This extended losses to the lowest level since the middle of last October. Paris wheat futures have led the way down with increasing concerns that the EU export pace is falling behind where it needs to be to meet export estimates. Brussels updated its weekly EU wheat export data, which included French data that was previously lacking. Shipments to 9th January 2022 rose to 15.1 million tonnes, up by...
Frontrunner - 7th January 2022
January 07, 2022 17:15 - 11 minutes - 16 MBWheat markets made an uncertain start to 2022 but after some early small gains, trade futures prices posted some notable losses. This week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices fell to their lowest since mid-October and were followed by the Paris and London futures markets. Strong price support had been expected to continue to come from the world’s major wheat importers – including Egypt, China and Algeria - as it had done throughout December. However, such support was found lacking th...
Frontrunner - 17th December 2021
December 17, 2021 15:51 - 10 minutes - 14.8 MBWheat futures markets fell heavily mid-week, losing almost 4% of their value. A number of changing elements led to this long liquidation resulting in the loss of all the gains made last month and the new record high prices. The fast-spreading Omicron variant of Covid-19 presents a host of uncertainties but will almost certainly result in lower demand as the hospitality trade once again has to manage lost business. However, there are changing fundamentals that point towards a more relaxed worl...
Frontrunner - 10th December 2021
December 10, 2021 16:51 - 12 minutes - 16.8 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday, presenting a bearish set of wheat data. World production is seen 2.61 million tonnes higher than last month at 777.89 million tonnes. Overall, wheat supplies are seen up 4.3 million tonnes with increased carry in from last season. Production volumes reflect recent official revised estimates which have seen many increases since figures were previo...
Frontrunner - 3rd December 2021
December 03, 2021 15:54 - 10 minutes - 14.8 MBWheat markets have endured a volatile week of trading, as traders and speculators reacted to the uncertainty of the latest Covid-19 variant Omicron and what it might bring. Having peaked at nine-year highs last week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost over 10% of their value by close of business on Tuesday. This was due to a wave of panic selling, which caused prices to tumble. European wheat futures made similar losses from their record highs last week. However, the tight wor...
Frontrunner - 26th November 2021
November 26, 2021 16:56 - 10 minutes - 15 MBEuropean wheat futures rallied further this week, striking new record-high levels as bullish drivers continue to influence markets. Adverse wet weather across east and southeast Australia has proved damaging for wheat crops with reports of sprouted grains and quality wheat consigned to the feed bin. The world’s major milling wheat importers were hoping that the arrival of a predicted bumper crop in Australia would ease the tight supply of quality wheat and cap record prices but that may no l...
Frontrunner - 19th November 2021
November 19, 2021 16:30 - 14 minutes - 19.7 MBEuropean wheat futures struck new record highs in volatile trading this week. Markets continued to rise, reacting to further notable purchases from some of the world’s major wheat importers while being mindful of the likelihood of further export restrictions for Russia, the world’s primary wheat exporter. Algeria weighed in with a chunky purchase, thought to be up to 800,000 tonnes, having to pay up to $384/t including freight for shipment mid-December to the end of January. The country relax...
Frontrunner - 12th November 2021
November 12, 2021 16:20 - 15 minutes - 21.3 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its November World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimate (WASDE) report early this week, bringing an end to a short spell of declining prices. A revised estimate for world wheat stocks was released, which was below average trade estimates. The USDA cut world wheat stocks from 277.18 million tonnes to 275.80 million tonnes. This revision changed the negative market sentiment. The profit-taking that was seen from the middle of las...
Frontrunner - 5th November 2021
November 05, 2021 16:02 - 8 minutes - 11.7 MBWheat markets have continued to go from strength to strength. Future markets have moved sharply higher, with price gains of over 25% since early September. This rise has been driven by wheat production losses for major exporters Canada, US and Russia and by a loss of French quality amidst strengthening demand. Official EU wheat export data is not fully accounting for all shipments, but private estimates suggest that the EU will have breached 11 million tonnes by the end of October. Ukraine ...
Frontrunner - 29th October 2021
October 29, 2021 15:17 - 8 minutes - 12.2 MBWheat futures prices soared again this week, striking new contract highs. This is another record on the back of multi-year highs, driven currently by strong export demand and concerns for tightening world supplies. The Paris wheat market reached its highest level since March 2008 following the release of the EU weekly export data which shows exports have now reached 8.99 million tonnes. Official data for France dating back to July remains incomplete showing just 753,000 tonnes shipped. Howeve...
Frontrunner - 22nd October 2021
October 22, 2021 14:58 - 10 minutes - 14.6 MBChina is the largest wheat producing country and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the country’s total production this season will reach 136.9 million tonnes. However, Chinese government officials said this week that persistent heavy rain impacting the main wheat producing areas across the country has left planting at only 26% complete so far. This is 27 points below the normal pace. Nevertheless, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China said authorities ...
Frontrunner - 15th October 2021
October 15, 2021 15:09 - 13 minutes - 19 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated markets with the release of its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, presenting bullish data that further underpins the strong prevailing prices. Traders expected to see cuts for Canadian wheat output in line with updates from local analysts. Prolonged spells of heat and dryness have been significantly damaging to the Canadian crop and the USDA now sees the crop total down to 21 million tonn...
Frontrunner - 8th October 2021
October 08, 2021 15:23 - 13 minutes - 18.3 MBWheat markets continued to rise this week, supported by strong export trade and uncertainty over Russian wheat export capability. Paris wheat futures have set new contract highs, gaining over 10% in value since the 20th September. So far this season, from 1st July to 4th October, Brussel’s trade data showed the EU had shipped just over eight million tonnes of wheat. This was up by one million tonnes on the week and unofficial vessel counts suggests this is still significantly understated. In ...
Frontrunner - 1st October 2021
October 01, 2021 14:11 - 10 minutes - 14 MBParis and London wheat futures rallied to new contract highs this week, the jump in prices triggered by bullish wheat stocks and production data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). US wheat stocks estimates for the 1st September 2021 have been set at 1.78 billion bushels - 70 million bushels below average trade estimates and the lowest since 2007. The USDA also cut its 2021 US wheat production estimate by 50 million bushels from its previous estimate, down to a new total ...
Frontrunner - 24th September 2021
September 24, 2021 16:38 - 13 minutes - 18.9 MBLondon wheat futures prices gained 3.5% from their low on Monday and came within £4/t of the contract high which was achieved in the middle of August. Following higher world market prices, there seemed no clear catalyst for the sharp price rise, but the latest export data from the EU and US was supportive. Last week, analyst group Stratégie Grains cut its EU wheat export availability estimate by 1.7 million tonnes down to a new estimate of 31 million tonnes. This is as a result of a lower E...
Frontrunner - 17th September 2021
September 17, 2021 15:52 - 11 minutes - 16.3 MBLate last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report; much in line with traders’ expectations it produced neutral to bearish data. World wheat production is seen rising 3.7 million tonnes up to 780 million tonnes, with Australia up 1.5 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes and India up 1.52 million tonnes to 109.52 million tonnes. These increases in production estimates are offset by a one mil...
Frontrunner - 10th September 2021
September 10, 2021 16:11 - 12 minutes - 17.6 MBFranceAgriMer updated its French wheat crop data this week with changes that highlighted the poor quality of its crop. Domestic and export milling specifications demand that grain specific weight meets at least 76kgs but only 30% of the crop is estimated to have reached that standard. Such poor French wheat crop quality is unusual; last season over 98% of France’s crop met the minimum 76kgs standard. The Hagberg falling number (HFN) is also an issue, with only 67% meeting the minimum 220 spe...
Frontrunner - 3rd September 2021
September 03, 2021 14:16 - 10 minutes - 14.6 MBEarlier this week Statistics Canada (StatsCan) updated its country’s wheat crop estimate, now seeing the crop falling to 22.95 million tonnes. This compares to 35.18 million tonnes last year and, if realised, will be Canada’s smallest crop for 14 years. Persistent excessive heat and dryness for much of the growing season has slashed yield potential for Canada; one of the world’s major wheat exporters. In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United S...
Frontrunner - 27th August 2021
August 27, 2021 15:13 - 12 minutes - 17.5 MBIn contrast to UK feed wheat futures, the Paris futures market has a milling standard specification. Under normal circumstances traders may elect to deliver physical wheat against their futures sales at harvest or buy futures as a hedge against milling wheat export sales they make. However, the adverse French weather and delayed harvesting has seen lower than average specific weights, particularly in northern France, and has left traders unable to source wheat of a sufficient standard to mee...
Frontrunner - 20th August 2021
August 20, 2021 14:35 - 10 minutes - 9.58 MBIn its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the United States Department of Agriculture surprised markets last week with larger-than-expected production cuts for some of the world's major wheat and corn producers. After the report was released, strong wheat futures surged a further 5% to multi-year highs. However, fresh selling and speculators banking profits gathered pace throughout this week and wiped out the short-lived spike in prices. Hosted on Acast. See acast...
Frontrunner - 13th August 2021
August 13, 2021 16:21 - 13 minutes - 17.9 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday and presented some bullish surprises. Futures markets reacted with notable gains and US, Paris and London wheat futures all rallied to set new contract highs. Having taken an overly conservative view of potential crop losses in its July estimates, this time the USDA made some aggressive production cuts. This was particularly the case for Russia w...
Frontrunner - 6th August 2021
August 06, 2021 15:40 - 11 minutes - 15.4 MBThis week, the UK’s oilseed rape harvest has continued making progress further up the country where weather has allowed. As mentioned last week, yield reports seem to be improving as harvest makes its way north. An increase on the widely estimated 3.3t/ha may well be seen before harvest with numbers as high as 5t/ha being reported in the Lincolnshire area. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Frontrunner - 30th July 2021
July 30, 2021 15:08 - 9 minutes - 13.1 MBWheat long-holders in many areas can still achieve attractive premiums for old crop wheat as the market scrambles to find stocks to service late-season demand. In Scotland and the North of England particularly, wheat prices that are £30-40/t above harvest levels should encourage most sheds to be emptied as the country enters a new crop year with bare boards and minimal carryover. As wheat harvest started in the south this week, most merchants and consumers will breathe a sigh of relief as we ...
Frontrunner - 23rd July 2021
July 23, 2021 15:42 - 13 minutes - 18.7 MBPersistent hot and dry weather continues to damage spring wheat crops in the northern US states, particularly North Dakota and Minnesota. Weekly crop condition ratings slipped to 11% rated ‘good to excellent’, which is just one point above the worst condition rating on record in 1988. The area rated ‘poor to very poor’ increased on the week to 63% from 55% and this data propelled US spring wheat futures to new contract highs - their highest level since November 2012. The weather forecast sign...
Frontrunner - 16th July 2021
July 16, 2021 15:54 - 10 minutes - 14.4 MBUS Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rallied sharply this week, gaining 10% in value from last week’s three-month lows. Persistent hot and dry weather conditions across US and Canadian spring wheat production areas look set to continue into next week and will prove further damaging for yield potential. Minneapolis spring wheat futures rose above $9/bu which is their highest since December 2012. The fast rise in spring wheat futures prices has significantly extended its premium to...
Frontrunner - 9th July 2021
July 09, 2021 15:23 - 11 minutes - 16.4 MBWheat markets have stepped lower this week again, strongly influenced by the fortunes for US corn. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) markets were closed on Monday for Independence Day but most of last week’s sharp price rally was lost on Tuesday following the long US weekend. CBOT corn opened 40 cents down but losses over the week amounted to 10% as US weather changed to cooler and wetter conditions. This was deemed ideal for developing corn plants as they head towards their pollination period. ...
Frontrunner - 2nd July 2021
July 02, 2021 15:10 - 9 minutes - 4.53 MBIn recent weeks, analysts have been increasing their wheat production estimates for major exporters Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. This has left a negative tone and seen world prices continually ease during June. This change has been highlighted by London wheat futures which lost £14/t during the month. However, the primary negative price driver has been expectations for a notably higher 2021-22 US corn crop than previously anticipated. Since March, the United States Department of Agriculture...
Frontrunner - 25th June 2021
June 25, 2021 14:47 - 14 minutes - 12.9 MBWheat futures have slipped lower this week. London November 2021 wheat futures closed below £170/t for the first time since mid-April. Grain markets have been pressured by wetter and cooler weather across the primary US corn producing states, which are conditions that are ideal for the pollination period and signal improved yield potential. Speculative funds have been active sellers, reducing their long corn futures positions, which has also helped to lower wheat prices. The US winter whea...
Frontrunner - 18th June 2021
June 18, 2021 14:53 - 12 minutes - 24 MBWheat prices have fallen sharply in recent days and London wheat futures have lost more than £10/t from their highs early last week. The fall has been driven by the US agriculture market, particularly by US corn, which has lost over 12% of its value this week. A host of bearish features have combined to galvanise the aggressive speculative fund sell off. A change in weather prospects is one of the main drivers for lower US corn and wheat markets with cooler and wetter conditions now arrivi...
Frontrunner - 11th June 2021
June 11, 2021 15:01 - 8 minutes - 11.7 MBThe week began with markets on an upward trajectory. Weather is hot and dry in Northern USA, Canada and throughout Europe. Any rain we might see is likely to be confined to the Black Sea region. Despite the dryness, the EU wheat crop should achieve a good volume. However, it will not be an early harvest this season, which raises concerns over quality and, subsequently, prices are generally supported. On Tuesday, Algeria purchased 450,000 tonnes of wheat for August delivery, most likely orig...
Frontrunner - 4th June 2021
June 04, 2021 15:32 - 12 minutes - 11.4 MBPrice volatility for the world’s wheat markets continued this week. After initially making a sharp recovery following last week’s slump, ultimately wheat markets failed to hold onto their gains. This was highlighted by London wheat futures, which increased by £8/t at their peak midweek before subsequently losing two-thirds of that rally. Contrasting fortunes for potential wheat yields across the Northern Hemisphere are contributing to this choppy trade. Much of Europe, the Black Sea and cen...
Frontrunner - 28th May 2021
May 28, 2021 15:40 - 11 minutes - 20.9 MBUS Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and corn futures have been particularly volatile this week. Spring planting has advanced at a fast rate which has encouraged notable long liquidation from market speculators. Spring wheat planting reached 94% complete, which is well ahead of the 85% average for this time of year. Meanwhile, corn planting advanced to 90% complete compared with the 80% average. Some analysts predict that US farmers will expand their corn planted area to over 96 million ...
Frontrunner - 21st May 2021
May 21, 2021 15:02 - 11 minutes - 10.9 MBWorld wheat markets have fallen again this week as a result of the pressure of improving production potential for some of the world’s primary exporters. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices are now 10% below their end-of-April high and London wheat futures hit a low at £21.50/t beneath their recent peak. Conversely, US winter wheat prospects look particularly upbeat following this week’s annual Kansas crop tour. Yields for the south west of the state are seen at 56.7bu/a, which is si...
Frontrunner - 14th May 2021
May 14, 2021 16:08 - 14 minutes - 13.4 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, updating its current season balance sheets and its first estimates for next season. The markets were particularly keen to see how the USDA would assess corn production prospects for Brazil. Late drilled crops are now suffering from an almost complete lack of rain, low soil moistures and rising temperatures. Despite the planting difficulties and obvio...
Frontrunner - 7th May 2021
May 07, 2021 14:33 - 11 minutes - 10.8 MBPersistent dryness across many of the primary corn growing regions of Brazil is continuing to stress late drilled corn crops and impact their yield potential. In April, the estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the Brazilian corn crop was at 109 million tonnes, but analysts see the lack of rain taking at least nine million tonnes from that crop potential. If the dryness continues, there are concerns that the crop could fall to as little as 90 million tonnes. The...