Frontrunner
195 episodes - English - Latest episode: 6 days ago -Frontrunner is the weekly grain marketing update from Frontier Agriculture. Covering wheat, barley, oilseed rape, pulses, seeds and fertiliser, we make sure growers can keep up to date with the latest developments while on the go.
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Episodes
Frontrunner - 25th April 2024
April 25, 2024 12:01 - 10 minutes - 14.2 MBIn an eventful week for the wheat markets, speculative fund short-covering spurred a sharp ascent, propelling London November 2024 wheat futures past £200/t - their highest level since 10th January. Geopolitical tensions and weather fluctuations initially fuelled the surge, although values retraced mid-week. Escalating missile attacks on the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa by Russia over the weekend, coupled with the US government's proposed $61 billion support for Ukraine's war efforts ag...
Frontrunner - 18th April 2024
April 18, 2024 09:37 - 9 minutes - 13.3 MBLast week's United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report brought minimal shifts in the global wheat landscape. While world wheat production saw a slight increase to 787.36 million tonnes and consumption rose marginally to 800.1 million tonnes, end stocks dipped to 258.27 million tonnes. Notably, the adjustments made for India hint at a potentially bullish scenario for world wheat markets. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of m...
Frontrunner - 11th April 2024
April 11, 2024 12:24 - 11 minutes - 16 MBThe latest weekly crop condition and progress report from the US highlights a positive outlook for production potential. Winter wheat maintained a steady condition, seen 56% ‘good/excellent’, which is unchanged on the week. However, this is significantly higher than the same period last year when just 27% of the crop was seen looking this well. Kansas is the number one producing state and edged one point higher on the week, to 49% ‘good/excellent’. Spring wheat and corn planting is off to ...
Frontrunner - 4th April 2024
April 04, 2024 11:22 - 12 minutes - 16.5 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presented a bullish set of data before the Easter weekend and sent futures prices higher. On 1st March, US wheat stocks were marginally higher than average expectations at 1.087 billion bushels versus 1.044 billion bushels. This was also up on last year which was 0.941 billion bushels. The surprises for the market didn’t come from the stocks though, rather it was the lower-than-expected 2024 US corn and US winter wheat prospective planted...
Frontrunner - 28th March 2024
March 28, 2024 14:03 - 13 minutes - 18.3 MBWorld wheat futures markets enjoyed a short-lived price spike at the end of last week. Early on Monday, follow-through buying took Paris futures to their highest since 7th February and 22 euros above the contract low seen earlier this month. Prices rallied following the news that the largest private Russian grain exporter was in dispute with Russian authorities and was not being issued with the appropriate documentation to allow vessels loaded with grain to sail to their end destinations. ...
Frontrunner - 21st March 2024
March 21, 2024 12:57 - 9 minutes - 12.5 MBSpeculative fund short covering has driven wheat futures higher in recent days, led primarily by gains in the Paris market. The May 2024 contract breached €200/t on Tuesday which was the market’s highest level since 27th February 2024. The funds had built record short positions in the Paris wheat market but improved physical wheat demand, Black Sea supply concerns and EU political moves have been the catalysts to trigger a need to reduce the exposure to potentially higher prices. During...
Frontrunner - 14th March 2024
March 14, 2024 12:53 - 12 minutes - 16.9 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) late last Friday afternoon, trimming end stocks for both world wheat and corn which helped to lift prices. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the ...
Frontrunner - 7th March 2024
March 07, 2024 11:44 - 11 minutes - 15.7 MBEarlier this week, both US and French wheat futures fell sharply again and struck new contract lows. Wheat futures have nearly lost half their value from their peak in May 2022 and are under pressure from abundant world wheat supplies and cheaper export sales from Black Sea origins. Offers are reported to have fallen below $200/t FOB – the sterling equivalent of £157/t for milling quality on a vessel at a Black Sea port. Algeria is thought to have taken advantage of these low prices, secu...
Frontrunner - 29th February 2024
February 29, 2024 12:11 - 11 minutes - 16.2 MBSo far, 2024 has proven to be disappointing for wheat prices. London wheat futures lost 20% of their value over the first seven weeks of the new year, but in week eight they managed to reverse the trend and for the first time this year closed higher on the week. There was little to be bullish about and the gains were more a desire for speculative traders to lock in profits as wheat futures bounced higher from their contract lows. During current intense volatility, markets can move significa...
Frontrunner - 22nd February 2024
February 22, 2024 15:02 - 15 minutes - 21.4 MBSo far, 2024 has been a bad year for wheat prices under the weight of world grain. This is now heavier according to the International Grains Council who raised its latest world corn production estimate by four million tonnes to a total of 1.234 billion tonnes, now 71 million tonnes up on last year. World wheat production was left unchanged at 788 million tonnes. London wheat futures have lost over 16% of their value since the end of last year and they struck a new contract low earlier this...
Frontrunner - 15th February 2024
February 15, 2024 14:08 - 13 minutes - 17.9 MBLate last Wednesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and there were very few changes from January’s numbers. Year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn will be less than estimated in the previous month’s report, but the cuts made were insufficient to halt the slide in wheat prices seen since the beginning of 2024. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - som...
Frontrunner - 8th February 2024
February 08, 2024 13:22 - 10 minutes - 13.7 MBBy midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline. Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is fr...
Frontrunner - 1st February 2024
February 01, 2024 12:15 - 10 minutes - 14.5 MBWorld wheat prices continued to fall this week, extending the decline that has prevailed since the beginning of 2024. The Paris and London wheat futures markets both fell to new contract lows - the lowest prices seen since July 2021. Over supply and slow demand have encouraged speculative selling, with managed money traders holding record short positions in the Paris market. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside reg...
Frontrunner - 25th January 2024
January 25, 2024 11:37 - 11 minutes - 15.4 MBThis week UK wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows despite support for US and European wheat markets. UK feed wheat prices remain around £10/t too expensive to compete for export market share. Traditional UK feed wheat EU export destinations, such as Spain and Ireland, continue to find cheaper offers from other origins and there is no shortage of sales opportunity should prices become competitive. The EU has so far imported 5.4 million tonnes of wheat - 3.65 million tonnes of tha...
Frontrunner - 18th January 2024
January 18, 2024 11:59 - 12 minutes - 17 MBLast Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE) for 2024, presenting a bearish set of data for both wheat and corn. Subsequently, futures wheat prices dropped sharply and both the Paris and London markets established new contract lows. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier cust...
Frontrunner - 11th January 2024
January 11, 2024 11:39 - 13 minutes - 18.3 MBThis week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins. Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $2...
Frontrunner - 5th January 2024
January 05, 2024 15:49 - 11 minutes - 15.6 MBThe new year hasn’t been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to mark...
Frontrunner - 22nd December 2023
December 22, 2023 13:52 - 6 minutes - 9.59 MBWorld wheat futures markets are drifting into the festive period, with little change in value but trading above the season’s lows. There has been no shortage of international trade, however, with Saudi Arabia buying 1.3 million tonnes and Egypt securing 480,000 tonnes in the week before Christmas. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 ...
Frontrunner - 15th December 2023
December 15, 2023 14:42 - 10 minutes - 15.1 MBThis week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to m...
Frontrunner - 8th December 2023
December 08, 2023 14:49 - 11 minutes - 16.4 MBThis week, China - the world’s largest wheat producing country - has put pen to paper with US wheat exporters. Published sales data showed US traders selling around one million tonnes of US wheat to the country and in the process triggered a sharp price rally. As a result of this, the short covering launched Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures 15% higher from the previous week’s multi-month lows. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of ...
Frontrunner - 1st December 2023
December 01, 2023 15:03 - 10 minutes - 14.7 MBEarlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news. Up to Sunday 26th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier c...
Frontrunner - 24th November 2023
November 24, 2023 16:28 - 13 minutes - 19.1 MBWorld wheat markets have come under further selling pressure this week, with little to no fresh bullish features to be seen. Whilst demand slows, an improvement in the weather and crop ratings has encouraged speculative funds to build on their short positions in agricultural markets. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to mar...
Frontrunner - 17th November 2023
November 17, 2023 17:49 - 12 minutes - 17.7 MBLast week's price spike because of Black Sea supply concerns and confusion over a cap on Russian grain exports seems a distant memory. The plentiful nearby physical wheat supply is again weighing on markets and whilst Russian exports continue to power ahead, the EU and US are left trailing in its wake. Russia is expected to have its poorest performing month in November since the start of the season, but despite that the country is likely to ship about four million tonnes of wheat as it cont...
Frontrunner 10th November 2023
November 10, 2023 15:58 - 15 minutes - 21.2 MBThis week has brought more volatility across the US and European wheat markets. On 3rd November, London International LIFFE (Financial Futures and Options Exchange) closed at £200.50/t. Since then, London futures traded in a £7.05/t range between £205.00/t and £197.95/t before closing last night at £201.05/t. MATIF (Marché à Terme International de France) followed a similar pattern, closing at €240.00/t on 3rd November. Futures traded in a €8.25/t range between €245.00/t and €236.75/t befo...
Frontrunner - 3rd November 2023
November 03, 2023 15:44 - 14 minutes - 19.4 MBIt has been a relatively quiet trade week, with a lot of Europe out of the market for All Saints Day on Wednesday. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) remained open, but it was very quiet. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time...
Frontrunner - 27th October 2023
October 27, 2023 16:23 - 14 minutes - 19.8 MBEuropean wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying. Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to marke...
Frontrunner - 20th October 2023
October 20, 2023 14:57 - 14 minutes - 19.9 MBWorld wheat futures markets have been choppy this week, but have edged forward and recovered from the lows seen at the end of last month. Speculative funds holding significant short positions have taken some cover because of the uncertainty around increasing tensions in the Middle East, as well as the rise in other commodity prices such as crude oil. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm p...
Frontrunner - 13th October 2023
October 13, 2023 14:13 - 15 minutes - 21.5 MBWheat futures markets came under pressure again this week, extending recent losses under the weight of fresh export sales from Russia. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarmi...
Frontrunner - 6th October 2023
October 06, 2023 16:20 - 12 minutes - 17.8 MBLate last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the markets with its latest US wheat production estimates. The data showed a marked increase over its previous figures, ahead of the most upbeat pre-report trader estimates, which resulted in a sharp fall in wheat futures. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 ac...
Frontrunner - 29th September 2023
September 29, 2023 14:44 - 13 minutes - 18.2 MBRussia's appetite for world wheat export market share continues to be the primary bearish market driver. The latest estimates see Russia shipping 5.1 million tonnes of wheat in September and although this is 200,000 tonnes below last month, the first quarter of the season will now see a staggering 14.8 million tonnes shipped. On average, this figure is more than one million tonnes each week. There's also a quest for future sales, made evident by the news of intergovernmental discussions with...
Frontrunner - 22nd September 2023
September 22, 2023 16:18 - 12 minutes - 17.4 MBDespite UK wheat futures prices falling back from their recent highs earlier this week, weaker sterling is now edging them upwards although current values are only £10/t over the futures contract lows. Consumer demand has helped maintain domestic values, but UK feed wheat export prices remain at least £10/t above other origins irrespective of sterling’s fall. Therefore, feed wheat exports remain uncompetitive and aren’t attracting any fresh business. To date, UK wheat shipments into the EU...
Frontrunner - 15th September 2023
September 15, 2023 17:22 - 11 minutes - 15.6 MBLast week’s trade ended quietly with all markets posting small losses at the close. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) was down £0.85/t, Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) lost €1.50/t and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by $0.05/t. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to m...
Frontrunner - 8th September 2023
September 08, 2023 15:32 - 15 minutes - 21 MBRussia continues to dominate world wheat export trade whilst the US and EU fall further behind, leaving falling prices. Leading analysts revised estimates and put the Russian wheat crop between 91 and 92 million tonnes, with exports for the season between 48.5 and 49.5 million tonnes. 20% or more of that export target has already been achieved during the first two months of the season, with 9.7 million tonnes reportedly shipped by the end of August at record pace. During current intense vo...
Frontrunner - 1st September 2023
September 01, 2023 14:52 - 15 minutes - 20.8 MBWith the Russian wheat harvest progressing further than expected, yields are leading more analysts to revise their crop estimates for Russia - the world's leading wheat exporter. Total production is now seen ranging between 91 and 92 million tonnes, therefore creating potential for a higher record export target of 49.5 million tonnes. The first two months got off to a racing start, with estimates of 9.5 million tonnes shipped during July and August. However, the government has since imposed...
Frontrunner - 25th August 2023
August 25, 2023 15:10 - 14 minutes - 19.3 MBMany UK farmers crossed the finish line this week, bringing a welcome end to one of the most challenging harvests for over a decade. Continued periods of rain delayed combining – a complete contrast to last year’s harvest where prolonged dryness allowed for the earliest and quickest harvest since 1976. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 2...
Frontrunner - 11th August 2023
August 11, 2023 16:26 - 12 minutes - 16.7 MBThe week started with a sharp rally for wheat futures prices following a weekend of military action between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine seaborne drone attacks on Russian commercial shipping, including a tanker near the Crimean, caused renewed wheat supply fears. Russia is currently shipping between 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat each month, with approximately 70% of this total coming from its Black Sea ports. Any tangible disruption to sea freight will have a positive impact on prices, e...
Frontrunner - 4th August 2023
August 04, 2023 15:29 - 13 minutes - 18.7 MBWheat futures prices continued to fall this week, dampening any signs of trade activity much like the UK weather is doing for harvest progress. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Black Sea wheat supply, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures fell again on Thursday for the seventh consecutive trading day. This wiped out all the gains made since 17th July when Russia withdrew from the Black Sea export corridor deal with Ukraine. Russia has continued to launch drone strikes on the Ukrain...
Frontrunner - 28th July 2023
July 28, 2023 14:58 - 13 minutes - 19.2 MBThis week, US wheat futures markets rallied to briefly touch their highest level since late February this year in what has been a notably volatile period of trade. On Monday, aggressive fund short covering took prices to their daily trading limit of 60 cents up - the equivalent of a 9% price gain. The primary trigger for the gains was the Russian military attacks on Ukrainian grain loading terminals on the River Danube. This river has proven an effective export route for Ukraine wheat and ot...
Frontrunner - 21st July 2023
July 21, 2023 16:08 - 12 minutes - 17.6 MBEvents unfolding because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict have once again had a major impact on world wheat prices this week. Following months of threats, Russia chose to halt its engagement with the UN-brokered Black Sea wheat export deal on Monday, which previously allowed vessels to safely collect wheat and other grains from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports. Since its inception a year ago, the deal has seen almost 33 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped around the world, helping to...
Frontrunner - 14th July 2023
July 14, 2023 14:49 - 14 minutes - 20 MBThis week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It added weight and area to both US wheat and corn crops. The increasing supply of these crops triggered a wave of selling and futures prices went back down to early June levels. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier cust...
Frontrunner - 7th July 2023
July 07, 2023 15:37 - 13 minutes - 18 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and out...
Frontrunner - 30th June 2023
June 30, 2023 15:57 - 15 minutes - 21.4 MBThe week started with news that the Wagner Group’s attempted coup against the Russian government had failed. In addition, Sterling has weakened against the Euro over the past week while it has strengthened against the US dollar. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the opti...
Frontrunner - 23rd June 2023
June 23, 2023 14:58 - 14 minutes - 19.7 MBFrom early 2023, speculative funds had built near record short positions in agriculture futures markets. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market alone received over 120,000 contracts which is the equivalent of over 16 million tonnes. This process helped wheat prices decrease to multi-month lows at the end of May, but the current month has seen a price recovery. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hou...
Frontrunner - 16th June 2023
June 16, 2023 15:09 - 13 minutes - 18.1 MBThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published revisions to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report late last Friday afternoon. There was a notable jump in its world wheat production estimate, which it now sees rising to over 800 million tonnes. This is 10.4 million tonnes up on last month and 12 million tonnes up on last year. It came as a surprise to many that the USDA did not cut production estimates for areas where adverse weather may reduce output...
Frontrunner - 9th June 2023
June 09, 2023 16:58 - 12 minutes - 17 MBThe world’s wheat futures fell to new multi-month lows last week, with London wheat dropping to its lowest value since mid-January 2022. However, a combination of weather-related factors and concerns for the security of supplies from the Black Sea helped deliver five consecutive days of positive closing prices and an overall gain of around 9% from this low. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our My...
Frontrunner - 2nd June 2023
June 02, 2023 15:29 - 11 minutes - 15.1 MBFor most of this week wheat values have remained on the defensive with London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Marche A Terme International de France (MATIF) all falling to their lowest point in over a year. Without much bullish news traders continued to add to their short positions after the small bounce in prices last week. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and...
Frontrunner - 26th May 2023
May 26, 2023 16:32 - 12 minutes - 268 MBWorld wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated ‘good/excellent’ and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six poi...
Frontrunner - 19th May 2023
May 19, 2023 14:43 - 12 minutes - 16.8 MBLate last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world’s 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of m...
Frontrunner - 12th May 2023
May 12, 2023 15:28 - 14 minutes - 19.4 MBLast week’s wheat price gains were quickly lost this week as the weight of old crop stocks, demand concerns and improving 2023 production prospects motivated selling interest. Despite uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor deal and increased hostility from Russia towards Ukraine, eastern EU states are heavy with previously imported Ukrainian supplies. During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outsi...
Frontrunner - 5th May 2023
May 05, 2023 14:49 - 11 minutes - 16.4 MBWorld wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year. Russian wheat exports remain the primary negative price driver, dominating world trade with an estimated five million tonnes shipped during April alone, taking the season’s total above 37 million tonnes. ...