Fixed Interests
122 episodes - English - Latest episode: 14 days ago -From global macroeconomic trends to impacts on the credit markets to regulatory and political changes, Fixed Interests delivers your economic update in 15 minutes or less.
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Episodes
GCC Update - Budgets, Oil Prices and Reform Prospects
September 02, 2021 05:54 - 9 minutes - 17.1 MBJan Friederich, Head of MEA Sovereigns, and Toby Iles, Lead GCC Sovereign Analyst, discuss GCC fiscal prospects amid higher oil prices, Oman’s medium term fiscal plan and the tension between fiscal consolidation and diversification in the region.
Canada Banks - Calm in Stormy Waters
August 06, 2021 13:58 - 9 minutes - 8.95 MBMark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director, Americas Sovereign Ratings, talk rating implications for Canadian banks & the country's macroeconomic environment following Fitch’s 2020 sovereign rating downgrade.
Argentina and Ecuador - Tackling Policy Challenges Ahead
July 19, 2021 17:10 - 12 minutes - 11.3 MBShelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Americas Sovereigns, explore the macroeconomic and political challenges ahead in Argentina and Ecuador following their respective debt restructurings in 2020.
Rule of Law and Sovereign Ratings in Central and Eastern Europe
July 07, 2021 16:19 - 10 minutes - 9.56 MBPaul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, discuss the rising prominence of rule of law issues in CEE and how they impact sovereign ratings.
Mexico's Prospects After the Mid-Term Congressional Elections
June 18, 2021 15:07 - 10 minutes - 9.36 MBShelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Charles Seville, Co-Head of Americas Sovereign Ratings, discuss the potential economic implications of Mexico’s recent mid-term congressional elections.
NextGen EU
June 14, 2021 15:20 - 10 minutes - 9.79 MBMichele Napolitano, Head of Fitch’s Western Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings, discuss the impact of the Next Generation EU Fund on EU growth prospects and public finances.
US Inflation Pressures, Bond Yields and the Fed
May 25, 2021 13:40 - 15 minutes - 14.4 MBElevated debt levels in the wake of COVID-19 have exposed borrowers to global interest rate risks. Join Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, as they discuss the outlook for US inflation, bond yields and the Fed.
Fitch Presents "China Perspectives"
May 14, 2021 02:24 - 1 minute - 1.94 MBHow will China’s 14th Five-Year Plan impact its medium-term growth prospects? Will the Chinese yuan soon challenge the US dollar as one of the world’s leading global currencies? These are among the topics we will discuss on “China Perspectives,” a new Fitch Ratings podcast hosted by the firm’s lead sovereign analyst for China, Andrew Fennell. China Perspectives will feature candid discussions on the economic and credit developments most impacting China with experts from both withi...
EM Taper Tantrum Risks
May 07, 2021 15:33 - 10 minutes - 9.81 MBEd Parker, Head of Fitch’s EMEA Sovereign Ratings, and Tony Stringer, a Managing Director in the Sovereigns Group, discuss the risks facing emerging and frontier markets from Fed tapering its quantitative easing programme and rising US bond yields.
Colombia - Economic, Fiscal and Ratings Outlook
April 29, 2021 13:02 - 11 minutes - 10.7 MBShelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director & Primary Analyst on Colombia, discuss Colombia’s economy, the recently unveiled tax reform, and key factors to resolve the country’s negative outlook.
Revision of Turkey’s Outlook to Stable
March 17, 2021 13:57 - 12 minutes - 11.1 MBPaul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereigns and Douglas Winslow, Director, discuss Fitch’s the revision of the Outlook on Turkey’s ratings to Stable from Negative and the recent evolution of economic policy.
GCC Update
February 09, 2021 02:33 - 9 minutes - 16.9 MBJan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereigns and Krisjanis Krustins, Director covering GCC sovereign ratings, discuss GCC ratings in light of higher oil prices, political developments and reform announcements.
Biden Administration Policy and Sovereign Ratings Outlook
January 19, 2021 14:01 - 10 minutes - 9.64 MBIn this podcast, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director in the Sovereigns group, and Charles Seville, Senior Director in the Sovereign group, discuss what the Biden administration means for U.S. economic policy and the U.S. sovereign rating outlook.
Outlook on Sub-Saharan African Sovereigns and the Debt Markets
December 01, 2020 03:49 - 10 minutes - 19.7 MBCote d’Ivoire recently became the first Sub-Saharan African sovereign to access international markets since the start of the pandemic crisis. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings, and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns, discuss SSA’s growth prospects for 2021 and the financing pressures in the region.
Argentina and Ecuador - Post-Restructuring Outlook
November 16, 2020 19:02 - 10 minutes - 20 MBIn the latest Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director of Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Director of Sovereigns, discuss the future economic prospects and challenges in Argentina and Ecuador following their respective debt restructurings in September. They compare and contrast the two restructurings and examine Fitch’s upgrade of Argentina’s ratings to CCC and Ecuador to B- with stable outlook, and the risk factors to monitor in these countries in 2021.
Downgrade of Morocco’s Sovereign Rating
October 30, 2020 07:33 - 10 minutes - 9.21 MBJan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Mahmoud Harb, Director, discuss the rationale for the recent downgrade of Morocco’s ratings to BB+ with Stable Outlook, the pandemic impact and prospects for the country.
Korea’s Steady Performance Amidst Pandemic Headwinds
October 13, 2020 07:17 - 7 minutes - 14.1 MBAmidst the global pandemic, Korea is outperforming its peers as a result of virus containment and rebounding exports. Stephen Schwartz and Jeremy Zook of APAC Sovereign Ratings discuss Korea’s economic and trade outlook, policies, and key risks.
Central America’s Weakening Fundamentals - Challenges Amidst US Recession & Health Pandemic
September 30, 2020 19:58 - 9 minutes - 9.17 MBIn this latest podcast, Shelly Shetty, Managing Director of Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director of Latin America Sovereigns, discuss sovereign trends in Central America. They delve into the challenges Central America are facing including fiscal pressures, headwinds from the U.S. and the global recession, spread of the coronavirus, downgrades and Negative outlooks ratings, and more. Find out which countries can be more resilient and what’s ahead for the region.
The Negative Outlook On Turkey’s Sovereign Rating
August 27, 2020 15:15 - 10 minutes - 9.74 MBPaul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Douglas Winslow, Director and lead analyst for Turkey, discuss Fitch’s recent revision of the Outlook on Turkey’s sovereign rating to Negative from Stable.
Indonesia’s Credit Profile in the Age of COVID-19
August 17, 2020 09:54 - 6 minutes - 5.79 MBStephen Schwartz, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings and Thomas Rookmaaker, Director and Lead Analyst for Indonesia, discuss the economic impact of the Coronavirus in Indonesia, the fiscal and monetary policy responses and long term growth prospect.
Increased Fiscal and External Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereigns
July 29, 2020 08:10 - 9 minutes - 17.8 MBThe pandemic has had a heavy impact on SSA ratings. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Jermaine Leonard, Director, discuss the impact on sovereign ratings, the oil price shock, financing pressures and the G20 DSSI.
Climate Change: The Impact on Sovereign Ratings
July 21, 2020 11:15 - 9 minutes - 8.46 MBClimate change is a huge topic of political, social and financial market discourse. Ed Parker, Head of Fitch’s EMEA Sovereign Ratings, and Tony Stringer, a Managing Director in the Sovereigns Group, discuss the main types of climate change risks, the uncertainties involved and the impact on sovereign ratings.
Peru's Rating Trajectory: Challenges Ahead
June 16, 2020 20:29 - 9 minutes - 8.49 MBIn the latest edition of Fixed Interests Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director and primary analyst for Peru, discuss the recent downgrade of Peru’s Local Currency IDR and its equalization with the Foreign Currency IDR which was also affirmed with a Stable Outlook. They examine the challenges ahead for Peru’s economic and fiscal profiles amid the coronavirus pandemic and an impending election cycle.
Nigeria and the Pandemic Shock
June 04, 2020 02:13 - 7 minutes - 14.4 MBNigeria faces significant challenges from the pandemic shock. Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Rating, and Mahmoud Harb, Director, discuss ongoing pressures on Nigeria’s external finances, its funding plan and growth outlook.
Update on the GCC – Impact of Oil Shock and the Coronavirus Crisis
April 28, 2020 14:30 - 7 minutes - 13.3 MBThe GCC has been severely impacted by the global coronavirus pandemic. In this podcast, Jan Friederich, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, Director and GCC Sovereigns analyst, discuss how sharply lower oil prices and the coronavirus crisis affect GCC sovereign ratings and currency pegs.
Downgrade of Mexico’s Sovereign Rating
April 21, 2020 11:20 - 9 minutes - 9.07 MBShelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas, and Charles Seville, Senior Director, Americas Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s rating downgrade, our main rationale behind our rating action and our overall views on how Mexico is placed to face the current difficult circumstances of global recession, including the contraction of the U.S., lower oil prices, coronavirus impact and other potential hits. What are the main drivers of Mexico’s economic recession? How will Mexico respond to the...
China's Recovery from COVID-19
April 14, 2020 02:46 - 6 minutes - 8.41 MBThe lockdown on Wuhan has been lifted and China’s economy is recovering gradually. Stephen Schwartz and Andrew Fennell of APAC Sovereign Ratings, discuss China’s economic prospects, the course of policies, and implications for the sovereign rating.
Global Economic Crisis
April 06, 2020 22:10 - 8 minutes - 7.96 MBGlobal GDP is collapsing as the COVID-19 crisis escalates rapidly. Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook - Crisis Update.
Lockdown
March 20, 2020 18:06 - 7 minutes - 6.49 MBWith the coronavirus crisis taking an extraordinarily heavy toll on the world economy, Tony Stringer, Chief Operating Officer, Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the latest Global Economic Outlook forecasts and downside scenarios.
Ireland: Elections and Rating Assessment
March 04, 2020 10:06 - 9 minutes - 8.51 MBIn the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Michele Napolitano, Head of the Western Europe team, and Alex Muscatelli, from the Western Europe team and Primary Analyst for Ireland, discuss the implications of Ireland’s recent election for our analysis, and the outcome of our recent rating review of Ireland.
Unrest in Chile and Colombia: The Economic Impact & Risks Ahead
February 21, 2020 19:05 - 9 minutes - 8.46 MBWhat are the economic and political implications of the recent social protests in Chile and Colombia, and what does the future hold? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Richard Francis, Director of Sovereign Ratings and Primary Analyst for Colombia and Chile, discuss how the aftershocks of the recent social unrest impacted the growth outlook and political profile of each of the countries. The overall impact was much more profoun...
CIS and Black Sea Region Rating Cycle Slowing
February 12, 2020 17:58 - 9 minutes - 8.87 MBSovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Black Sea Region have experienced positive rating momentum recently, with four upgrades in 2019. Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Senior Director on the Sovereign team, discuss the factors behind the improvement in the regions rating, and why Fitch believes that further upgrades may be tougher to achieve.
Asian Frontier Markets
January 23, 2020 02:12 - 6 minutes - 9.44 MBAsia’s Frontier Markets have great potential, but are also prone to external financing pressures. Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, moderates a discussion with Sagarika Chandra and Jeremy Zook, Associate Directors on the Sovereigns team, to discuss the ratings outlook for Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam. Sagarika explains the rationale for the recent revision of Sri Lanka’s outlook to negative, in contrast to Vietnam’s positive outlook. Jeremy discusses progre...
Global Economic Outlook
December 05, 2019 15:34 - 10 minutes - 9.39 MBThe relative stability of the service sector - which accounts for 70% of GDP in the advanced economies – should help global growth to stabilise next year after a sharp leg down in 2019. Manufacturing has been hit much harder by the trade war, the related decline in business investment and the broader emerging market slowdown and we do not expect any rebound, even if signs are emerging that the downturn maybe starting to ease. Service sector output is much more closely tied to consumer spend...
Global Economic Outlook
December 05, 2019 15:34 - 10 minutes - 9.39 MBThe relative stability of the service sector - which accounts for 70% of GDP in the advanced economies – should help global growth to stabilise next year after a sharp leg down in 2019. Manufacturing has been hit much harder by the trade war, the related decline in business investment and the broader emerging market slowdown and we do not expect any rebound, even if signs are emerging that the downturn maybe starting to ease. Service sector output is much more closely tied to consu...
Demographic Trends
November 28, 2019 16:59 - 8 minutes - 7.41 MBDemographic trends such as declining or rapidly expanding populations, a bulging youth cohort or pronounced ageing can create risks to sovereign creditworthiness. Key channels of impact include stagnant potential GDP growth, unsustainable pension systems and public debt, and risks to social and political stability. Demographic forces are already affecting some sovereign ratings and Fitch Ratings believes they are likely to become a more important driver over the medium term.
Argentina's Post-Election & Debt Restructuring Prospects
November 04, 2019 16:27 - 12 minutes - 11.1 MBWhat are the implications of Argentina’s most recent presidential election, and how will it affect the nation’s current economic uncertainty? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss President-elect Alberto Fernandez’s potential fiscal policies to help stem inflation, the pending renegotiation of the IMF program, and necessary debt restructuring to avoid default and establish a su...
Fixed Interests Global Economic Outlook
October 01, 2019 09:27 - 8 minutes - 7.44 MBWorld growth forecasts have been cut across the board following the escalation in the US-China trade war in August. We now expect world growth in 2020 to fall to 2.5% , the lowest rate since 2012. Trade policy disruptions will adversely affect exports, manufacturing and business investment and there are limits as to how effective monetary policy easing will be in softening the blow.
Global Sovereign Conferences Key Talking Points
August 29, 2019 06:14 - 5 minutes - 10.9 MBJames McCormack, Head of Sovereign Ratings and Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, provide a preview of key issues that will be discussed at Fitch’s Global Sovereign Conferences taking place in Asia, Europe and the U.S. during the weeks of September 9th and 16th. Issues include the growth implications of the China-US trade war, and policy space across Asia for stimulus, if required, in light of risks to the growth outlook. Check out the events page on Fitchratin...
South Africa Economic and Political Outlook
August 21, 2019 03:28 - 7 minutes - 14.1 MBJan Friederich, Head of Middle East and African Sovereign Ratings, explains the key drivers behind the decision to revise the outlook on South Africa to Negative and affirm the rating at ‘BB+’ in a conversation with Stephen Schwartz, Senior Director, Sovereign Ratings. They also discuss South Africa’s economic and political outlook from a credit perspective.
Sovereign Trends in Central America
August 08, 2019 18:37 - 8 minutes - 8.19 MBAs a result of political polarization, fiscal constraints, and rising tensions with the U.S. over immigration policy, Central America faces political instability; currently, three out of five countries in the region have negative outlooks. In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, co-Head of Latin American Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director of Sovereign Ratings, discuss the latest trends in Central America Sovereigns as well as the more common themes behind some ...
Political Developments in Spain
August 01, 2019 15:34 - 8 minutes - 7.85 MBMichele Napolitano, Head of Western Europe Sovereigns, and Alex Muscatelli, Director, discuss the failure of Pedro Sanchez to win a confidence vote in the Spanish parliament on 25 July. This could delay fiscal consolidation measures scheduled for 2020, although this would not significantly change our debt-to-GDP projections. The increase in political instability in recent years has not damaged the economic recovery that has supported Spain’s fiscal adjustment. However, a cyclical slo...
India Fiscal and Growth Outlook
July 24, 2019 01:04 - 7 minutes - 14.6 MBStephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, and Thomas Rookmaaker, Director and Lead Analyst for India of Sovereigns Ratings, discuss India’s fiscal and growth outlook, along with the key drivers of the sovereign rating.
Sub-Saharan African Debt
July 08, 2019 13:09 - 8 minutes - 7.67 MBTony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings discuss Sub-Saharan African (SSA) debt, noting government debt/GDP has risen steeply in SSA, with the median of 19 Fitch-rated sovereigns doubling since 2012 to 56% at end-2018. Fitch believes that SSA sovereigns have used some of the fiscal space afforded by the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative to boost investment, GDP growth and human development.
Global Economic Outlook
June 17, 2019 13:02 - 11 minutes - 10.4 MBTony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, say threats to the global growth outlook from trade protectionism have become much more significant in recent months. The breakdown of US-China trade negotiations, the recent use of a US tariff threat to pressure Mexico to change migration policies, and the rising chance of a no-deal Brexit all raise the possibility of disruptions to global trade that could have a much bigger impact on the world economy t...
Mexico Downgraded on Pemex Risks, Trade Tensions, and Policy Uncertainty
June 06, 2019 19:25 - 11 minutes - 10.3 MBShelly Shetty and Charles Seville, Co-Heads of Sovereigns Ratings for the Americas, discuss the recent downgrade of Mexico's credit ratings. Key drivers for the rating action include liability of Pemex's deteriorating credit profile, poor economic growth performance exacerbated by trade tensions, and domestic policy uncertainty from the new administration.
Risks Remain for Argentina in 2019
May 28, 2019 20:15 - 11 minutes - 10.4 MBShelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss the Negative Rating Outlook for the country against a backdrop of continuing high inflation, economic contraction, as well as a competitive presidential election in October.
Fiscal Trends in the GCC
April 12, 2019 18:54 - 10 minutes - 9.77 MBJan Friederich, Head of Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, Director focusing on GCC sovereigns, discuss the fiscal trends in the region, the risks stemming from the oil market, the credibility and direction of reforms and the outlook for sovereign ratings.
Biggest Fall in Global Growth Since 2012
March 26, 2019 10:43 - 9 minutes - 9.14 MBIn the latest Fixed Interests Podcast,Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the Global Economic Outlook for 2019, noting global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since December 2018.
Colombia’s Fiscal Challenges and Tax Reform
March 18, 2019 13:04 - 11 minutes - 10.5 MBShelly Shetty, Co-head of Sovereigns—Americas, and Richard Francis, Primary Fitch Analyst for Colombia, discuss the fiscal and growth challenges for Colombia and how the new government is trying to tackle those issues.