Fixed Interests

Credit Views on Pakistan Post-Election

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Pakistan discuss the results of Pakistan’s recent elections, their implications for IMF talks, and the country’s reform potential and funding prospects.

The Growing World of Private Credit

Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, dive into the rapidly expanding private credit sector, covering the origins of the space, its growing profile following the 2008 financial crisis and more.

Economic Reforms In Argentina Under Milei - The First 100 Days

Join Shelly Shetty, Head of Sovereign Ratings for Asia & the Americas, and Todd Martinez, Primary Argentina Analyst & Americas Co-Head, as they discuss the potential economic impacts and rating implications for Argentina under President Milei.

Outlook for Chinese Credit - What to Expect in 2024

Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, is joined by fellow Credit Policy Senior Director Lan Wang to discuss the outlook for China’s economy, covering policy support, fiscal rebalancing and the property sector, among other topics.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Risks in the Middle East and North Africa

Toby Iles, Head of MEA Sovereigns, joins Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich to break down the economic and rating implications of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa.

A Challenging Environment for U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Justin Patrie, Senior Director and Head of Fitch Wire, and Melissa Che, Senior Director, North America CMBS, explore the challenges facing U.S. commercial real estate in 2024, including refinancing issues, weakened fundamentals and more.

2024 Global Credit Outlook - Key Themes and What to Expect

Richard Hunter, Chief Credit Officer, and Justin Patrie, Senior Director, discuss the key themes of Fitch’s recent 2024 Global Outlook report, including sustained elevated interest rates, asset quality deterioration, a US growth slowdown, and more.

Opportunities for Supply Chain Diversification In Emerging Markets

Fitch sovereign analysts Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Todd Martinez, Senior Director, and Jeremy Zook, Director, discuss the impact of supply chain diversification trends such as nearshoring/friendshoring on emerging markets.

Global Economic Outlook - High Rates and Slowing Growth

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch's Global Economic Outlook for 2024, including stagnation in the Eurozone, property market concerns in China, and slowing growth in the US

Fiscal Developments in Western Europe

Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Greg Kiss, Sovereigns Director, discuss how underlying fiscal trends in Western Europe have become more challenging in 2023, and divergent debt dynamics among the regions' economies.

Assessing Common Framework Debt Restructuring

Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich is joined by MEA Associate Director Thomas Garreau to discuss the functioning of sovereign restructurings under the G20 Common Framework and cases of its application.

Outlook on APAC Frontier Markets

APAC Frontier Markets continue to face external financing challenges - join Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Sovereign Directors Sagarika Chandra and Krisjanis Krustins, for a discussion of what to expect in these markets in 2024.

US Sovereign Rating and Outlook Going Forward

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the recently averted US government shutdown, the August 1st ratings downgrade, and the outlook for US public finances & the rating going forward.

China's slowdown and sovereign risks

As Fitch cuts its forecasts for China’s economic growth, Thomas Rookmaaker, Jeremy Zook and Brian Coulton discuss the implications of the deteriorating macro-outlook for China’s sovereign creditworthiness.

Nigeria - Policy Settings Under the New Government

Toby Iles, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereigns, and Doug Winslow, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the direction of reform and related credit developments since the new Nigerian administration took office.

Resilience, Nearshoring and What to Expect from Mexico’s Economy

Japan’s monetary policy: shifting gears or doubling down?

Will the Bank of Japan follow the world in tightening? How far could rates go? What could that mean for public finances? Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Japan, explore Fitch’s latest thinking.

How Sustainable are Egypt's External Finances

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, and Laure de Nervo, Primary Egypt Analyst, look into the current pressures on Egypt’s economy following Fitch’s downgrade of its sovereign credit rating in May.

Global Economic Outlook – Central Bank Inflation Fight Continues

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, explore Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report, covering China's recovery, central bank inflation concerns, and more.

Turkish Elections and the Economic Impact

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Sovereigns Senior Director, discuss the recent elections in Turkey, and how policy decisions by the Erdogan administration may impact the domestic economy

Central America’s Positive Rating Momentum

Stress and consequences for the US Banking Sector

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, James Longsdon, Global Head of Banks, and Christopher Wolfe, Head of Bank Ratings, North America,  discuss the recent volatility in the US banking sector, including what still to watch in 2023.

Kazakhstan - Geopolitics and Oil Exports

Crude oil exports to Western Europe are vital to Kazakhstan's economy - learn more about the related geopolitical challenges from Michele Napolitano, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, Emerging Europe Sovereigns

India’s Fiscal Outlook after the 2023 Budget

In this edition of Fixed Interests, Sovereigns Senior Director Thomas Rookmaaker, and Director Jeremy Zook, discuss India's fiscal outlook after the recent budget, including plans for sustaining growth while targeting modest deficit reductions.

Rate Hikes and Canadian Consumers

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Mike Girard, Director, ABS, and Mark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, explore how recent bank rate hikes are impacting Canadian consumers - from unemployment rates, to household debt & more.

What to Expect From Brazil’s New Government

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the policy and rating outlook for Brazil under the new government of President Lula, following his October election win over Jair Bolsonaro.

Global Economic Outlook - Inflation Battle Intensifies

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director discuss the recessionary outlook in Europe and the US as inflation pressures broaden and central banks are forced to take tougher monetary policy actions.

U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls - What to Expect

The US government recently announced new restrictions on China’s access to US semiconductor technology - join Fitch analysts Carla Taylor, Jason Pompeii and Chaim Kurland for a discussion on what to expect from the new regulations going into 2023.

US Economic Outlook and Implications of the Midterm Elections

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the potential economic implications of mid-term elections in the U.S.

GCC Fiscal Update

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Toby Iles, Head of MEA Sovereign Ratings, discuss the impact of high crude oil revenues on the fiscal policies of GCC sovereigns.

Europe's Energy Crisis

Paul Gamble and Federico Barriga Salazar from the Emerging Europe sovereign team and Michele Napolitano, head of Western Europe sovereign ratings discuss the rating implications of the shutdown in Russian gas supplies to the EU.

Argentina - Still on the Brink After IMF Deal

Despite Argentina's deal with the IMF earlier this year, the country's macroeconomic vulnerabilities are mounting, and it remains unclear if political heavyweight and new economy minister Sergio Massa can do what it takes to get things on track.

Colombia - Prospects and Challenges under President-elect Petro

Shelly Shetty, Sovereigns Managing Director, and Richard Francis, Primary Analyst for Colombia, discuss the outlook for Colombia’s economy, public finances & governability under the incoming administration of Gustavo Petro who assumes presidency in August.

US Rating Outlook

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Charles Seville, Co-Head of Americas Sovereigns, discuss the US’s sovereign rating and the rationale behind Fitch’s recent decision to revise the Outlook to Stable from Negative.

Tight Monetary Policy and Global Growth

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch, joins Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, to discuss unrelenting global inflation pressures, the Fed’s impending return to a restrictive monetary policy stance and the implications for the global economy.

Philippines - Post Election Outlook

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Sagarika Chandra, Lead Analyst for the Philippines, discuss the President-Elect’s economic agenda and the implications for the sovereign’s BBB rating and Negative Outlook.

Canada Public Financial Outlook

Doug Offerman, Senior Director for Canadian provincial ratings, and Kelli Bissett-Tom, Director for the Canada rating, discuss the credit impact of the 2022 budget season for Canada, Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

Sustainability Landscape & Islamic Finance in GCC

Saif Shawqi, Associate Director, Islamic Finance, and Bashar Al Natoor, Global Head of Islamic Finance, discuss the development of ESG-related products in the GCC, the growth of green & sustainable sukuk, and more.

Chile - Post-Inauguration Expectations

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, explore the economic and fiscal outlook for Chile in 2022 and the prospects under the new administration of President Gabriel Boric.

Turkey’s post-downgrade economic outlook

Senior Sovereign Ratings Directors Jan Friederich and Erich Morales discuss the economic outlook and operating environment in Turkey following Fitch's February downgrade of the country's sovereign credit rating to 'B+' from 'BB-'.

Macroeconomic Outlooks on Central and Eastern Europe

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Malgorzata Kleniewska Wodtke, Senior Director of Financial Institutions, discuss the macroeconomic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe, including growth expectations, inflation and more.

India’s Fiscal Outlook after the Budget

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, Sovereigns Director, Lead Analyst for India, discuss the implications of India’s recent budget for the medium-term fiscal outlook and sovereign rating.

Ghana’s Downgrade with Negative Outlook and Zambia’s G20 Common Framework Prospects

Toby Iles, Head of Middle East and Africa Sovereign Ratings, and Jermaine Leonard, Sovereigns Director, Lead Analyst for Ghana and Zambia, discuss the recent downgrade of Ghana’s sovereign rating and consider Zambia’s G20 Common Framework prospects.

What’s Next for Irelands’ Sovereign Rating

Michele Napolitano, Head of Western Europe Sovereigns and Malgorzata Glowacka, Associate Director, discuss the findings of Fitch’s recent special report “Ireland’s Exceptional Economic Performance Places Debt/GDP on a Firm Downward Path”

Inflation Fears Take Centre Stage

Shelly Shetty, Head of Americas and Asia Pacific Sovereigns and Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, discuss the policy implications of increasing inflation as the Fed responds to growing evidence that US inflation is broadening to services and wages.

Andorran Banks - Navigating Challenges Ahead

Cristina Torrella, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, and Fernando Sanchez, Lead Analyst for Andorran banks, discuss latest developments in the Andorran operating environment, as well as how banks are expected to navigate challenges ahead.

Sovereign Trends in the Andean Region

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss how elevated commodity prices and the reopening of domestic economies are helping Chile, Colombia and Peru recover from the shock of Covid-19.

Assessing Cyber Risk at Banks and Insurance Companies

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Marjan van der Weijden, Global Head of Financial Institutions, explore how cyber risk can be assessed at banks and insurance companies, as well as Fitch's recent collaboration with SecurityScorecard.

Central America - Macroeconomic Outlook and Recovery

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Latin America Sovereigns, discuss the macroeconomic and fiscal outlook for Central America, including the region's recovery from pandemic-related disruptions.

GCC Update - Budgets, Oil Prices and Reform Prospects

Jan Friederich, Head of MEA Sovereigns, and Toby Iles, Lead GCC Sovereign Analyst, discuss GCC fiscal prospects amid higher oil prices, Oman’s medium term fiscal plan and the tension between fiscal consolidation and diversification in the region.