The state of the race regarding polls, an update on the Supreme court and also the new NY Times rep

The state of the race regarding polls, an update on the Supreme court and also the new NY Times report on Trump’s banking connection to China.

Now, if you’re like me, you check polling websites every 5 minutes or so to see if there’s anything new to report. Fortunately for us junkies, today was a telling day! Something to remember: polls are not mirror balls or magic wands. They don’t actually know who will win. They are imperfect as we saw in 2016. But polls are designed to give us the best guess as to how people are feeling. For those who are super distrustful because of 2016, fear not, pollsters have tried to learn the lessons and are weighting polls accordingly. But again, they are imperfect. All pollsters agree that Trump has a path to 270 electoral college votes, and therefore winning, even if it’s a small one. For what it’s worth, I check five thirty eight dot com and real clear politics dot com for my polling info.

In short, polling is either tied or the margin is statistically insignificant in the following states: Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia and Ohio.

Biden is up by significant enough margins, aka outside the margin of error, in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to assume he would win those states if the vote were held today.

Trump is up in Texas by 4 points which is likely outside the margin of error too.

Interesting things to note: Biden getting more support among white voters than Hillary Clinton did. This is being driven by white women, older white voters, and he’s even making inroads with white voters without college degrees.

So you may be asking, how are so many states still so close? Turns out that Trump has made small gains with white voters WITH college degrees as well as Latino voters and younger black voters. It’s said that younger black voters feel democrats have taken the black community’s support for granted.

While Biden is polling 9 points ahead of trump nationally, as I discussed a couple weeks ago, national polls are virtually useless when it comes to the electoral college. The presidency is won and lost state by state.

Tonight the New York Times reported that Donald Trump has foreign bank accounts in Britain, Ireland, and China. He had apparently also opened an office in China and was hoping to do deals there as recently as 2015 when he was running for President. So why does this information matter if that office is no longer operating? Because China is a huge issue in this election. Trump has tried to paint Biden as soft on China and has tried to connect Biden’s son Hunter with business dealings there. That Trump has a bank account there, had an office, and was trying to pursue business dealings would imply that Trump has a financial stake in the United States’ relationship with the country and that he could be influenced accordingly. It certainly cuts into Trump’s attempts to hurt Biden on this front.

Finally, on the Supreme Court. Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination is expected to be voted on by the Judiciary committee on Thursday and then fully confirmed by the Senate on Monday. It’s expected the vote will fall on party lines. Can democrats do anything to stop this? No. They don’t have the votes and current senate rules dictate they only need a majority which it seems they have.

Please let me know if you have any questions and I’ll answer them in the comments or a future video! Stay safe and thanks for watching.