Economy Watch
1,329 episodes - English - Latest episode: 24 days ago -We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Quarter ending with a whimper
March 28, 2023 18:41 - 4 minutes - 3.68 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that the run to the end of the quarter is proving to be a subdued affair. First up today, the American retail impulse is not in great shape. Compared with a year ago, retail sales were up only +2.8% last week on a same-store basis. This isn't anywhere near str...
Is the world entering a 'lost decade'?
March 27, 2023 18:43 - 4 minutes - 4.29 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that American regulators have been active overnight. First today, we should note that the regional First Citizen's Bank (assets: US$109 bln and #36) has taken over large parts of failed Silicon Valley Bank's business (assets US$72 bln being acquired). The takeov...
You ready for another week of financial turmoil?
March 26, 2023 18:37 - 6 minutes - 5.9 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news investors are bracing for another week of financial turmoil. But first up, there has been a "thumping win" for the Labor Party in the NSW state elections, far more decisive than anyone expected. The Greens struggled and got no coat-tail advantage. Their Teals hel...
Europe's banks follow the Fed
March 23, 2023 18:54 - 5 minutes - 4.99 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that despite the expectations of bears, the US labour market hasn't wobbled yet. US jobless claims rose +213,000 and a small dip from the previous week. This was about what markets expected and still no indication a any special American labour market stress. Ther...
Fed hikes +25 bps, signals more
March 22, 2023 18:47 - 5 minutes - 4.84 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all dominated by the US Fed decision which is playing out in real time as you hear this. They have raised their policy rate by +25 bps to 5.0% today as widely expected. But the outlook was more hawkish than expected. "The Committee anticipates that some additi...
Bill Rosenberg: How to measure household inflation better than the CPI does
March 22, 2023 18:30 - 34 minutes - 31.2 MBAccording to Statistics New Zealand's Consumers' Price Index (CPI) inflation is running above 7%, its highest level since 1990. The Reserve Bank, tasked with targeting CPI inflation of between 1% and 3%, has been aggressively increasing its Official Cash Rate, which means higher interest rates flow through to borrowers and savers. Given the importance of the CPI as a measure of the changes in the price of goods and services for NZ households, do we have its settings right? What's in it, how...
Markets sense banking contagion risks are fading
March 21, 2023 18:39 - 5 minutes - 4.94 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that equity and bond markets are in more of a positive mood ahead of the US Fed's meeting tomorrow morning. But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight and it was yet another weaker one, made worse by both a slumping cheddar cheese price, and th...
Are those smoldering embers really out?
March 20, 2023 18:42 - 4 minutes - 4.48 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that both bond and equity investors are still buying - despite major repricing underway in the giant bond sector. The S&P500 is up today. The UST 10yr benchmark yield is higher too. But as the embers of last week's bank blaze smolder, investors are assessing whe...
Swiss engineer huge unwanted merger
March 19, 2023 18:39 - 5 minutes - 5.07 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news Credit Suisse has been sold off at a bargain-basement price. There is a deal in Switzerland where their #1 bank UBS will buy their troubled #2 bank, Credit Suisse. It is probably a deal no-one wants however, except the regulator. Their central bank is funding a U...
Anthony Healy: How a business growth fund partnership between banks & the Government works
March 19, 2023 18:30 - 41 minutes - 38.4 MBThere's no reason why a partnership between the Government and banks making equity investments in small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) wouldn't work in New Zealand, says the man who heads up such a fund in Australia. The NZ Government expects the major banks to be in a position soon to decide whether to join it as an investor in a business growth fund (BGF). This comes after last year's Budget proposed a BGF to improve SMEs' access to finance, with up to $100 million earmarked for Crown...
Greg Fleming: How to invest in a bursting bubble
March 18, 2023 17:30 - 34 minutes - 31.3 MBSilicon Valley Bank’s meltdown this week was partly because it had been investing customer deposits in US Treasuries, considered one of the world’s safest investments, without hedging the risk of interest rates rising. Last year was the first since 1870 that bonds and equities both experienced an annual decline, as the interest rate shock destroyed the value of assets in almost all classes. Investors have been rushing to redesign their portfolios as the style of investing, which had work...
Risks from wobbly banks not over yet
March 16, 2023 18:46 - 5 minutes - 5 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news banking rescue efforts are underway in both the US and Europe. But first up, the US labour market never stops signaling its strength. Last week's jobless claims came in way below estimates, in fact their lowest in months at +217,000. That is almost back to the lo...
Credit Suisse in a doom loop
March 15, 2023 18:51 - 6 minutes - 5.64 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the banking crisis has shifted to Europe, and investors are betting big on the Fed not changing rates next week. Oddly, some key UST yield inversions are being wound back sharply at the same time. But first, we start with news that American mortgage application...
US bank stocks shake off contagion fears
March 14, 2023 18:52 - 4 minutes - 3.95 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news at face value at least, the US banking crisis appears to have passed. American regulators are uncovering some very questionable practices at the banks they have closed or taken over. But the crisis seems to have passed. Equity markets are recovering the share ...
Markets absorb bank-risk blows
March 13, 2023 18:46 - 4 minutes - 4.13 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the value of bank stocks are being marked down sharply today, globally. First up today, the drama over the failure of some American banks has all the spotlight. Globally, government bond yields fell sharply as investors pared bets of higher interest rates and lo...
Financial markets on watch for SVB contagion risk
March 12, 2023 18:37 - 8 minutes - 8 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the global financial landscape has been changed by a large bank failure in the US. The sudden and unexpected demise of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) over the weekend has has drawn quick comparisons to the 2008 failure of Washington Mutual (WaMu). When WaMu failed in ...
US, China, Japan each reveal data stutters
March 09, 2023 18:39 - 4 minutes - 4.44 MBEyes on US non-farm payrolls as jobless claims and layoffs rise. China inflation very low as demand stays weak. Japan machine tool orders weak.
Powell can't tame the American labour market
March 08, 2023 18:53 - 5 minutes - 5.26 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the strength of global labour markets is still on display, especially in the US. But first, despite mortgage interest rates back rising again, last week mortgage applications rose as well and that breaks a three week retreat. For all the talk about how America...
Faster rate moves and a higher peak coming from the US Fed
March 07, 2023 18:48 - 5 minutes - 5.01 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news markets have been moved by US Federal Reserve chairman Powell's testimony to Congress and it was a bit more hawkish than markets were expecting. The 2-10 US bond yield curve hit -100 bps for the first time since 1981. But first, the overnight dairy auction was...
Lowe to go higher with another rate rise
March 06, 2023 18:42 - 4 minutes - 4.17 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes today are on the signals to be sent by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Inflation seems to be easing there but the central bank is widely expected to keep its foot firmly on the throat of inflation with another rate rise. But first, American factory order...
Central banks on back foot in inflation fight
March 05, 2023 18:37 - 5 minutes - 5.48 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that so far, central bank brakes on inflation or optimism don't seem to be working yet. First up today, global food prices were stable in February from January according to the FAO monitoring. That puts them -8.1% lower than year-ago levels when they were rising ...
Grant Halverson: Was the buy now pay later fintech revolution ever much more than smoke and mirrors?
March 04, 2023 18:00 - 28 minutes - 25.7 MBJust a couple of years ago there was huge excitement about buy now pay later (BNPL) companies. Via smartphone applications, or apps, their buy now and pay over installments service0 was drawing in consumers and worrying banks. The high water mark saw US payments company Square, now Block, strike a US$29 billion deal to acquire Australian BNPL service provider Afterpay in August 2021. But 18 months on the picture is very different with several BNPL companies in serious difficulties or shutt...
Bond market stops fighting the Fed
March 02, 2023 18:44 - 4 minutes - 4.34 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news bond interest rates pushed higher overnight on a backdrop of stubborn inflation signals. But first, last week American jobless claims slipped slightly to +201,000 and taking the total number of people on this support to just under 1.9 mln. A rise was expected. So...
China picks up the pace
March 01, 2023 18:44 - 5 minutes - 5.1 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news China seems to be shaking off its pandemic handbrake faster than many expected. China said both its factory sector, and its services sector, each expanded at a moderate rate in February, a key set of improvements. Both were outcomes better than expected. The se...
Low growth, high inflation settles in
February 28, 2023 18:46 - 6 minutes - 5.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the world seems to be settling in to a low-growth high-inflation period, not quite stagflation but disarmingly close. In the US, retail sales last week on a same store basis were up +5.3% from year-ago levels, unchanged in a week, and hardly accounting for inf...
Hong Kong exports slump to 70 year lows
February 27, 2023 18:39 - 4 minutes - 4.06 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we are in that transition zone where 'gains' and 'losses' are offsetting each other. First, American durable goods orders retreated in January from December. A fall was expected mainly because there was an outsized rise the prior month, but it was more than anti...
US inflation stubborn, equities revalue lower
February 26, 2023 18:26 - 6 minutes - 6.31 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes this week will be on how equity markets react to stubborn US inflation and the expected Fed resolve. But first, in China they are about to dump the respected technocrat boss of their central bank with new political appointments and giving Beijing even cl...
Doug Fairgray: Is the bipartisan attempt to boost urban housing density the right way to go?
February 25, 2023 17:00 - 28 minutes - 26.4 MBIn a rare show of bipartisan cooperation, the Labour and National parties teamed-up to enact new housing intensification laws in late 2021. This came through the Resource Management (Enabling Housing Supply and Other Matters) Amendment Act. Pushed through a rushed select committee process to the protestations of the ACT and Green parties, it will allow the building of up to three homes of up to three storeys on most sites in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch without ...
Resilience limits downsides
February 23, 2023 18:42 - 4 minutes - 4.54 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news underlying resilience is holding the global economy from any meaningful pullback. There are no real signs yet of weakness in the American labour market. Their jobless claims were expected to rise last week, but they fell and were below their low year-ago levels. ...
Gilmour & Hicks: Is the war on dirty money winnable, and if so how?
February 23, 2023 18:30 - 39 minutes - 35.9 MBMoney laundering is a scourge of the modern financial world. Whether it's the actual dirty money stretching its tentacles and influence widely, or the US$210 billion annual tick-box compliance effort as people and companies strive to meet anti-money laundering laws, the impact is massive. In a new book, The War on Dirty Money, authors Nicholas Gilmour and Tristram Hicks detail the failings of the fight against money laundering and offer solutions designed to make the war more winnable. Spe...
'Good' news 'bad' for stock markets
February 22, 2023 18:39 - 4 minutes - 3.87 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news that high bond yields are rattling international equity markets. 'Good' economic news is currently 'bad' for market prices because it brings expectations the monetary authorities will keep raising interest rates. But first, US mortgage applications took another...
Optimism seeps back
February 21, 2023 18:56 - 4 minutes - 4.36 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news all eyes will be on the 2pm RBNZ announcement of its Monetary Policy update where it is widely expected that a +50 bps rate increase will be announced. But first up today there was another dairy auction earlier today and it was a lame affair. Overall prices fe...
Aussie labour market shrinks
February 16, 2023 18:45 - 4 minutes - 4.3 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news the Australian labour market is now shedding jobs in an unexpected development. But first, US jobless claims came in almost exactly as expected at +255,000 last week so there are now 1.95 mln people currently on these benefits. This 'canary' metric isn't yet show...
Stagflation still a real threat
February 15, 2023 18:48 - 4 minutes - 4.55 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news there is more evidence we are in a high inflation period even as economic activity sags. Last week we noted a rise in American mortgage applications, but this week they fell back and hard and to their lowest level of 2023. So no light at the end of the tunnel o...
American CPI to set the tone
February 12, 2023 18:19 - 4 minutes - 4.54 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news American inflation is in the spotlight this week and will set the tone for markets worldwide. But first up in China, we got an indication of just how serious Beijing is to restart their economy after the pandemic. China's banks extended +¥4.9 tln in new yuan loan...
David Mahon: The end of Covid-zero and the Chinese economy 'beginning to really move again'
February 10, 2023 18:30 - 48 minutes - 44 MBAfter their Government's "clumsily conceived and executed lurch" away from its zero-Covid policy, the Chinese people are "back to work with real energy," says David Mahon. Mahon, the Beijing-based Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management, spoke to interest.co.nz in the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast. "China has to come some distance still to get away from the fear of this virus, the fear it may return. I'm sure that when we get into the autumn there'll be considera...
Searching for some wins in the inflation battle
February 09, 2023 18:33 - 4 minutes - 4.27 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news inflation's track has everyone's attention everywhere. But first, US jobless claims rose last week by +235,000 which was a small but significant rise and might signal the start of a weakening labour market there. And it was more than expected. Many will no doubt ...
Are easing inflations signals a mirage?
February 08, 2023 18:37 - 4 minutes - 3.79 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central bankers are coming to realise they are just getting started in their inflation fight, and we are far from past the worst. But first, US mortgage applications rose strongly last week from the prior week in an unusual burst. That still leaves them -37% lo...
Central banks eye more rate hikes
February 07, 2023 18:42 - 5 minutes - 4.93 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news central banks are not yet done raising rates to quell inflation. But first up today we can report a satisfactory dairy auction. Prices rose +3.2% in USD at this morning’s event on an overall basis with +3.8% rise for the dominant WMP product. Butter rose +6.6%...
China returns with unsteady gains
February 06, 2023 18:50 - 7 minutes - 6.56 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we lead with news we return from our long holiday weekend with the rest of the world delivering improved economic performances The Chinese Lantern Festival has ended China's New Year celebrations and shows that the feared aggressive surge in infections did not hold back their re-...
David Hall: Climate adaptation urgency & the potential for parametric insurance
February 02, 2023 18:45 - 37 minutes - 34 MBAuckland's unprecedented flooding highlights the importance of climate adaptation finance and the potential for parametric insurance, says David Hall. Hall, Climate Policy Director at Tohaand until recently Senior Lecturer in Social Sciences and Public Policy at the Auckland University of Technology (AUT), spoke to interest.co.nz for the Of Interest podcast. Hall says in events like the recent flooding he feels "a sense of grizzly resignation" with what has been predicted "playing out befo...
Jet fuel cost surges
February 02, 2023 18:38 - 4 minutes - 4.42 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. And today we start with news international travel may be back on the agenda for many, but it is likely to cost a lot more post-pandemic. But first, US jobless claims came in virtually unchanged last week from the week before. That remains a low level. There are now 1.916 mln people on these...
Waiting for the Fed
February 01, 2023 18:35 - 5 minutes - 4.75 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today the big news of the day, the one markets are waiting for, is the US Fed review and its policy re-positioning. But that isn't released until 8am NZT, so this section of our report will be updated when these details are released, on our website. Markets are now expecting them to raise ...
China's recovery boosts global prospects
January 31, 2023 18:50 - 6 minutes - 5.53 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the IMF says the world in back on a rising expansion track, even if it is pretty modest by past standards. But first, remember all local eyes will be on Stats NZ at 10:45am this morning and the December labour market stats. Our jobless rate is expected to remain a...
What will the US Fed do?
January 30, 2023 18:40 - 4 minutes - 4.14 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now on the eve of some large central bank interest rate announcements, and the size of those rises will tell a story about how they see 2023's economic prospects. First it will be the US Fed, followed by the ECB. Then smaller central banks like the RBA and th...
Metal prices signal fundamental optimism for 2023
January 29, 2023 18:51 - 6 minutes - 5.76 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news metals prices are indicating 2023 may be a year of global economic recovery. But first, if you are North Island listener, we trust you are surviving the downpours. They have been 'amazing', and not in a good way. And of course, today is a holiday in the top half of t...
The US economy shows why it is #1
January 26, 2023 18:46 - 5 minutes - 4.75 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American resilience is on full display today. First up, our weekly look at the up-to-date stress index of the American labour market shows ... nothing. Weekly jobless claims fell last week and fell more than expected. On a seasonally adjusted basis it is a 9-month lo...
Australia suddenly in a tough spot
January 25, 2023 18:39 - 4 minutes - 4.39 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news high and rising inflation in Australia is leaving their central bank with some ugly choices. But first, US mortgage applications rose last week from the prior week, a third week of improvement, while mortgage interest rates remained largely unchanged. But year-on-y...
How fast is inflation slowing?
January 24, 2023 18:32 - 4 minutes - 4.24 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it will be all about CPI inflation today. First, Stats NZ will release our December inflation figure at 10:45am (markets expect 7.1%). Then at 1:30 pm NZT the Aussies will release theirs (markets expect 7.5%). Misses from these expectations could well move financi...
Sentiment remains buoyant despite leading indicators
January 23, 2023 18:32 - 4 minutes - 3.81 MBUS leading indicators weak but equity markets ignore those signals. EU sentiment improves. Aussie leading indicators up. copper prices rise.