Economy Watch
1,329 episodes - English - Latest episode: 24 days ago -We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
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Omicron threatens re-opening
December 01, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.47 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world's factories seem to be in a good expansion mode - except in China. But first we should note that the OECD says the rise of the Omicron pandemic variant threatens to intensify supply shortages and inflation. They are positive about New Zealand with strong ...
Powell & Moderna rattle financial markets
November 30, 2021 18:50 - 5 minutes - 4.66 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Fed boss said the regulator can move faster unwinding its stimulus. In Congressional testimony today, the head of the US Fed painted the standard picture of "the economy has continued to strengthen" and "inflation will move down significantly over the next yea...
Market bounce back lacks conviction
November 29, 2021 18:52 - 4 minutes - 3.94 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been a financial market bounce-back today after yesterday's Omicron drop. But you have to say today's reaction isn't full of conviction. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar has fallen right out of favour But first in the US pending home sales rose in October...
A new round of unsettling volatility
November 28, 2021 18:37 - 5 minutes - 4.65 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been a huge change of mood in financial markets. Normally, this week would be focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report for November and the results of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday retail sales events. But the sudden risk-off mood has changed the pe...
China moves to rescue SME exporters
November 25, 2021 18:46 - 4 minutes - 4.26 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is moving to protect its smaller exporters caught in a demand/cost downdraft. But first we must note that the Thanksgiving holiday weekend is underway in the US and financial markets are all closed, and won't reopen until Tuesday, NZT. There are major retail ac...
US ending 2021 with positive economic momentum
November 24, 2021 18:46 - 4 minutes - 4.48 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American household spending rose in October and savings fell as prices paid by households surged. But first, the headline news in the US is that jobless claims there fell to +199,000 last week, the lowest since the start of the pandemic. In fact, they are celebrati...
Tackling inflation at its source
November 23, 2021 18:45 - 6 minutes - 5.54 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been an international move overnight to try and quell raging inflation levels by tackling oil prices. But first, the 'flash' November PMIs for the US shows that their expansion remains strong and that is despite it being held back by labour shortages and...
Europe faces brutal choices
November 22, 2021 18:48 - 4 minutes - 4.32 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the fourth pandemic wave rolling over Europe presents them with brutal choices, and will have global consequences. But first up, we can report that Jay Powell will be re-nominated for a second four-year term as the head of the US Fed. Lael Brainard, an ex-academic, ...
China braces for stagflation
November 21, 2021 18:25 - 5 minutes - 5.11 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news senior Chinese officials are openly talking about stagflation risks. A senior adviser to the Chinese central bank said at an online forum it is "very likely" that their economy will be in stagflation if producer prices stay high while demand stays weak, and they are ...
Bitcoin and Turkish lira both sink
November 18, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 3.87 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news both Turkey and bitcoin have taken a sharp re-rating lower today. But first in the US, new jobless claims fell to 239,000 and the number of people on these claims is now 1,754,000 and back to pre-pandemic levels. These new levels are about what was expected. The Phi...
Inflation spreads
November 17, 2021 18:34 - 3 minutes - 3.54 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news higher inflation is spreading everywhere. But first, new housing starts in the US were unchanged in October from September, but a small rise was expected. That extends the 2021 tailing off that began in the second quarter, probably due to supply-chain issues mostly...
US data all positive
November 16, 2021 18:44 - 4 minutes - 3.78 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US economy seems to be settling in for a longish positive run. But first, the overnight dairy auction brought higher prices, up +1.9% in US dollar terms. This is the sixth consecutive rise since September during which period the index has risen +14%. Perhaps b...
Global rates rise as some Chinese data improves
November 15, 2021 21:50 - 4 minutes - 4.18 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some improved data out of China, but it isn't all 'good'. But first in the US, the factory survey for the New York region has maintained its strong situation. New orders and shipments posted substantial increases, and unfilled orders rose. Delivery times were sig...
A climate deal only the first world can afford
November 14, 2021 18:44 - 5 minutes - 5.22 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news changes are coming as a result of both action and inaction at the COP26. They will all be inflationary, especially for food. Only the well-off will be able to tolerate these changes. But first in China, this year’s “Double 11” online shopping event saw sales grow at ...
China ignores global concerns
November 11, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.45 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is essentially ignoring COP26, responding to immediate pressures - not the least of which is crowning Xi as an effective emperor. But first, it is Veterans Day in the United States and that is a Federal holiday. Equity markets are open but not their bond market...
It's not going to be transitory
November 10, 2021 18:55 - 5 minutes - 4.59 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is all about consumer inflation, and the market reactions that followed. The US CPI came in way above its expected high level. It was running at 5.4% in September and was expected to rise to 5.8% in October. But the actual October rise was by 6.2%. Even their 'c...
Fragilities make markets cautious
November 09, 2021 18:50 - 4 minutes - 4.35 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets have turned more cautious today even as some key commodity prices keep on rising. And today, we start with a warning from the US Fed in their Financial Stability report. They say (page 60) China’s commercial real-estate sector bond market woes could spread...
Bitcoin touches new record high
November 08, 2021 18:50 - 3 minutes - 3.37 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the bitcoin price has hit a new all-time record high about two hours ago. But first, US consumer inflation expectations are rising, for the year ahead at least. Consumer prices are now expected to be +5.7% higher in a year, but 'only ' +4.1% higher in three years. ...
Global economy in a purple patch
November 07, 2021 18:36 - 5 minutes - 5.24 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the world is flush with positive economic data, but consumers seem very wary and uncertain about their prospects and outlook. China released trade data for October overnight and it was impressive. Exports grew +27% year-on-year to US$300 bln, slowing from a +28% surg...
China pushes harder to join the TPP
November 04, 2021 18:54 - 5 minutes - 4.88 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is making a new push to join the TPP. First we should note that cereals, dairy prices, and especially prices for vegetable oils have driven global food prices to a ten year high. Meat prices were flat. Cereal prices, especially for wheat, are being driven up by...
US Fed dials back QE
November 03, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.41 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that Chinese consumers are wary of what lies ahead in a possible Delta winter, and household preparations are distorting their retail economy. But first, at their latest review, the US Federal Reserve has announced the start of its tapering program this month. It s...
Downward pressures building in China
November 02, 2021 18:51 - 4 minutes - 4.13 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news downward pressures are starting to build in China. But first, the overnight dairy auction was a very good one with overall prices up +4.3% in US dollars and up +5.1% in New Zealand currency. There are many positives. The key WMP price rose slightly more than expec...
Global factories expanding
November 01, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.26 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the global manufacturing sector is in good shape. Overnight a set of factory PMIs for October were released worldwide and were generally reporting improving economic activity. The widely-watched US ISM one reported strongly expanding conditions, little changed from...
Chinese economic momentum leaks away
October 31, 2021 18:41 - 5 minutes - 5.39 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation is high in the US and Europe, but growth is leaking away in China. China's official PMIs remained in a stall in October. The factory survey showed retreating conditions, and marginally weaker than for September. Their services sector is still expanding but ...
Supply chain inflation dampens growth
October 28, 2021 18:53 - 4 minutes - 4.3 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation from the global supply chain woes are taking the wind out of the global economic expansion. The American economy grew at an annualised +2.0% in Q3-2021 according to initial estimates, well below market forecasts of +2.7% and slowing sharply from +6.7% in Q2...
Aussie inflation rocks Kiwi rates
October 27, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.42 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news our wholesale rate markets are being roiled by Aussie inflation data. But first in the US, orders for durable goods declined -0.4% in September from August, following a downwardly revised rise in August. But analysts had expected a much larger -1.1% drop due to ong...
Higher inflation isn't going to be transitory
October 26, 2021 18:49 - 4 minutes - 4.33 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's edition of Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the bond market is sending 'clear signals' that much higher inflation is here to stay. But first in the US, new home sales picked up more than expected in September and are now running at an annual rate of +800,000 which is +17% above the annual ra...
Large, notable and strategic corporate deals
October 25, 2021 18:46 - 3 minutes - 3.5 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's edition of Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of some large, notable and strategic corporate deals underway. But first we should note that the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dropped to a seven month low, suggesting the American economic expansion lost momentum for a second consecutive month. P...
It is crunch time for Christmas gifts
October 24, 2021 19:47 - 6 minutes - 5.71 MBEvergrande surprises with bond payment. China to launch a new property tax. US inflation from bottlenecks creates winners. RBA in fight with bond traders.
Goods inflation surge reaches limits
October 21, 2021 18:55 - 5 minutes - 4.63 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there are signs the global rush up of producer prices may be exhausting itself. But first, we start today with better-than-expected jobless claims data in the US. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 256,000 last week, the lowes...
World divides into a fast-track and slow-track set
October 20, 2021 18:47 - 4 minutes - 4.27 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investor risk sentiment continues to improve as the prospect for stronger interest rate rises. More inflation data was reported overnight but it is clear there are two global tracks emerging, depending on the state of the economic recovery. Canadian inflation has ...
Rising NZD undermines higher dairy prices
October 19, 2021 18:40 - 4 minutes - 3.84 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a rising risk mood among investors and that is generally 'helping' commodity producers. But for us, the overnight dairy auction brought mixed results. Overall prices were up +2.2% in USD terms, but with the fast-rising NZD, they actually slipped -0.5% in local ...
US and China data underwhelms
October 18, 2021 18:38 - 4 minutes - 4.39 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of underwhelming data in the top two global economies. First, US industrial production fell September from August in a retreat the market didn't see coming. But two events crimped the result; Hurricane Ida had an outsized impact, and the chip shortage curbed car making sever...
Inflation with stagnation
October 17, 2021 18:30 - 6 minutes - 5.63 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news sharply rising commodity prices are being caused by shortages that are undermining economic activity. Inflation with stagnation. First up today, the price of copper is taking off again. Its price hit a record high at the end of last week as surging power prices threaten to cu...
The producer price problem is getting worse
October 14, 2021 18:42 - 4 minutes - 4.38 MBUS jobless claims retreat. US PPI stays very high. China PPI still rising. Supply-chain problems get worse. China housing on edge. Aussie jobs shrink.
Higher inflation and faltering growth
October 13, 2021 18:44 - 4 minutes - 3.84 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news all signals point to high inflation and lower growth, and bond markets are scratching their collective heads. The global economy's recovery track seems to be faltering as the combination of rising inflation and supply chain bottlenecks is undermining consumer confidence in ...
First world recovering better than emerging economies
October 12, 2021 18:43 - 4 minutes - 4.54 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are waiting for some US Fed tapering signals. In the meantime we should note the IMF has trimmed their global growth estimates for 2021. Basically they see the developed world handling the Delta pandemic better because of substantial income and fiscal support measu...
China's property contagion at a key point
October 11, 2021 18:41 - 4 minutes - 3.95 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news all eyes are on China's bond markets today. But first, it is Columbus Day in the US, a Federal holiday but not one observed everywhere and markets are operating on a subdued basis. They have had time to reflect on the 'disappointing' non-farm payrolls report and are coming ...
China's services sector expanding again
October 10, 2021 18:31 - 6 minutes - 5.49 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's services sector is stirring again despite some bumps in the road. But first, the OECD has achieved its big reform of how and where multinational companies will be taxed; their BEPS reform. It is an agreement between 136 countries, and brings a reluctant US on board. T...
Would it be possible and/or desirable to engineer a housing market correction?
October 07, 2021 21:52 - 22 minutes - 20.3 MBDipping our toes into the world of podcasting, we look at whether it would be possible and/or desirable to engineer a housing market correction. That means a deliberate move by the government, with the cooperation of the Reserve Bank, local government and banks, to push house prices down. Such a move would require a government prepared to see house prices fall by a significant amount. We look at why homeownership is desirable, whether it would be possible to engineer a housing market corr...
The long-Covid economic problem
October 07, 2021 18:37 - 3 minutes - 3.46 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that perhaps there is a 'long covid' problem for economies too. But first, in the US jobless claims fell more than expected last week to +258,900 (actual) and a weekly drop of more than -40,000. That takes the total number of people on these programs to under 2.4 mln, the low...
Energy prices have global economy in its grip
October 06, 2021 18:22 - 3 minutes - 3.64 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news energy prices are roiling markets everywhere. But first in the US, the ADP employment report was positive, coming in better than expected with an +568,000 increase in jobs for September and suggesting that the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report will be a reasonable one. T...
China doubles down on coal production
October 05, 2021 18:45 - 4 minutes - 4.44 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Evergrande contagion seems to have started. But first up today we should note that the overnight dairy auction brought no overall change in prices in USD terms, and a small +0.5% gain in NZD terms as there has been a small depreciation in the Kiwi dollar since the last...
Commodity prices resume upward push
October 04, 2021 18:36 - 4 minutes - 4.09 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is new energy emerging in commodity price rises, driven by the good US and EU economic recoveries. But first, overnight data shows that American factory orders rose at a slightly faster pace than expected in August, confirming the recent strength in their manufacturing...
Coal suddenly a commodity in extreme demand
October 03, 2021 18:43 - 5 minutes - 5.11 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the price of coal is racing higher, making Australian and American miners rich, all based on extreme stress in both the Chinese and Indian electricity generation sectors. But first up today, the ICIJ has released a new huge trove of documents that reveal "the inner workings o...
China faces a population halving within 45 years
September 30, 2021 18:43 - 5 minutes - 4.77 MBKia ora, Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news underestimates of China's birth rate will have very major long term impacts. But first, new US jobless claims came it just under 300,000 last week, similar to the prior week. A surge in California masked improvements elsewhere. There are now 2.46 mln people on these benefits ...
NZD spurned as USD rises
September 29, 2021 18:43 - 4 minutes - 3.8 MBKia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we have been re-rated lower on currency markets. We start today noting the US dollar is surging higher in markets convinced the US Fed will start reducing some of its money printing operations soon. The NZD has been particularly hard hit by the move, undermined by the perce...
Concerns high energy prices will crimp expansions, bring stagflation
September 28, 2021 18:43 - 5 minutes - 5.06 MBKia ora, Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news energy issues are biting hard in both China and Europe now. But first, Wall Street is trading sharply lower with the S&P500 down more than -2% and Dow Jones falling almost -500 points as a spike in Treasury yields dragged shares, especially tech shares, lower. Uncertainty ...
Keep an eye on China's energy stress, US margin debt
September 27, 2021 18:51 - 4 minutes - 4.19 MBKia ora, Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China is facing a major energy crisis that could have worldwide implications just as it tries to deal with its Evergrande property crisis. But first in the US, American durable goods orders rose more than expected in August, up +10% above the July level, and up +25% above th...
Politics dominate economics to start the week
September 26, 2021 18:50 - 5 minutes - 4.82 MBKia ora, Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news politics is to the fore to start the week. First in Germany at their elections to replace Angela Merkel, seven parties have reached the 5% threshold with the largest garnering only 25% of the vote. The Greens got 14% and the far-right AfD 11%. The far-left party scraped in wi...