Degenerate Business School
185 episodes - English - Latest episode: 11 months ago - ★★★★★ - 16 ratingsTired of the same dry, monotonous business news and the squawkery of finance television? Here at Degenerate Business School, we aim to give you an irreverent take on the latest news, trends and forces in markets. Plus we acknowledge openly that, in some ways, stock and crypto trading are merely exercises in degenerate, white-collar gambling. But please note, this is not investment advice.
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Episodes
Silver & Gold
July 25, 2020 05:00 - 26 minutes - 17.9 MBOn this week's episode! Like the ancient King Solomon, attention turns to Silver and Gold as both minerals soar. Gold scratched a new record not seen since 2011. What gives? Risk off? Nervousness about inflation? The modest pull-back in tech continues, as the NASDAQ clocks another week of declines. James finds joy on Taiwan SemiConductor TSM. And perennial underperformer Twitter gets some lift from chatter around it's subscription model.
Is the Great Tech Bubble losing steam?
July 19, 2020 03:00 - 26 minutes - 18.3 MBThe markets muster on, mostly, as the FOMO rally of the ages continues.However the Nasdaq lost some steam, with flagship Netflix lowering it's guidance and getting walloped on Friday. What do we make of Netflix's dual CEO consulship thingy? Reed Hastings has proven immeasurable Value over Sock in the past. Will this pull the luster out of their darling rise? And is the bubble in tech starting to cool off somewhat? Furthermore, Chinese markets pull back as the People's Republic encourages ...
Is Tesla Worth It?
July 11, 2020 19:00 - 29 minutes - 20.3 MBThe Golden Cross arriveth, after the S&P 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average. Historically, this means the end of a Bear Market (if we can call the last 4 months such a thing). But in the context of the Fed's balance sheet, does this mean anything? Probably not... The People's Republic of China returns to Pump and Dump, exhorting its citizens to stop saving and start buying stock. But, responsibly of course. What does this mean? If the past is any indication...a quick b...
The 2nd Wave Approacheth
June 27, 2020 21:00 - 25 minutes - 17.7 MBGreg is back in the market! And he picked the worst possible week. Aside from eating dust on some European and Emerging Market ETFs, he had a moment in the sun with PLUG. Meanwhile, Bobby remains the LeBron James of day trading, doubling his money on PLUG options. The markets took to wavering again this week as the United States extends it's epic losing streak on top of COVID mountain. Cases are on the rise, and the prospect of a 2nd wave puts the fabled V-shaped recovery in the shade. ...
Will the Emerging Markets ever Emerge?
June 22, 2020 01:00 - 36 minutes - 24.8 MBTHIS WEEK! We bring back the Degenerate Champion of the Week: Markus Braun, CEO of the doomed Wirecard. Under the gloss of high Fintech, Markus manufactured $2 Billion of non-existent credit facilities in the Philippines that, well, never existed. AND in the markets? Broadly, US equities rebounded as Jerry the Bear continues to assure the markets that Fed interventions will encompass individual corporate bonds, signaling that the S&P is range bound. Leading Greg to ask James. Where can ...
At last the Market wavers...a little
June 13, 2020 21:00 - 27 minutes - 18.8 MBhe Markets at last waver! And Greg's timing is truly terrible, having divested his short and retreating to cash completely last week. The S&P shed ~5% this week and the VIX exploded 47% after a brisk sell-off on Thursday. Why? Quite simply, anxiety and getting chumped by the big boys. On Wednesday, Jear Bear Powell laid out the economic wasteland that awaits, as if somehow that was a surprise. Troubling news trickled in about an uptick in coronavirus cases, stoking fears of a prolonged re...
The New Theory that Explains the Stock Market
June 06, 2020 21:00 - 30 minutes - 21.2 MBA favorable jobs report caps the sharpest rally of our lives, all but restoring the S&P to its former heights. And so Greg cuts bait on the worst gamble of a generation: SPXS. Tech cements its command as the new risk-off, and Wall Street looks with smug relief on a V-shaped recovery. With the benefit of hindsight, Greg having missed the rally completely, we put forward a new theory to explain the great divergence between equities and the economy. And Greg asks, is now the time to go lon...
The Rally Abides
May 30, 2020 22:00 - 31 minutes - 21.6 MBThe improbable rally continues! The question is...if you're itching to get into the market and out of cash...should you? The answer hinges on your beliefs. The market is riding the wave of human optimism around re-opening to near full rebound. The S&P scratched 3,044 on Friday, matching late October. We ask the question, is society setting the stage of its own destruction? Will the great re-opening lead to a 2nd wave that crushes today's glimmers of optimism. Or is the market right and ...
The 2nd Great Depression
May 16, 2020 20:00 - 26 minutes - 18 MBThe Markets waver in small measure this week as uncertainty reigns.
Destroying a Decade of Employment Growth
May 09, 2020 23:00 - 30 minutes - 20.8 MBApril unemployment rate soars to 15%, destroying 10 years of employment growth in a flash. But the markets stand strong with cold indifference to poverty and suffering, with the NASDAQ recouping all of its losses YTD, underpinned by irrational confidence and an epic fear of missing out.
Lessons of the Great COVID Rally and the New Stock Market
May 03, 2020 01:00 - 35 minutes - 24.3 MBVolatility reigns supreme as we round out earnings season and the Street ingests real numbers. On Friday, tech's meteoric rise from the wreckage gets a heat check, as Amazon and Apple show they too are vulnerable to the global pandemic when before they were thought immune. Meaning Robert's a GD genius. Which is a way of saying that tech was over bought and uncertainty will govern the coming weeks. But with April soaring to the heavens, we ask again, is this a Bear Rally that will correct...
The Great Oil Collapse
April 25, 2020 22:00 - 26 minutes - 17.9 MBLive from Jerry Jones' yacht in an undisclosed location, we discuss the week that was. The S&P corrects modestly as the half-cooked Oil Cartel collapses, and oil prices fall into the sea. Netflix adds 16M subscribers to no fanfare in its valuation. We explain why. And the bulls shrug off another 4M jobless claims. We explore why unemployment claims won't correlate with market performance as they once did.
The FOMO Rally
April 18, 2020 22:00 - 20 minutes - 14.1 MBThe S&P continues its callous rally, clocking a second consecutive week of gains. Why? Meet the FOMO rally. Investors have a fear of missing out on the Bear Rally that is. What supports this? Nothing fundamental. Unemployment claims continue to soar. China posts its first economic contraction EVER (basically).
Why the Stock Market is Defying Gravity
April 11, 2020 21:00 - 29 minutes - 20.1 MBThe S&P surges higher this week, gaining 12% while all the world is dying. So why is the investor community happy to ignore the deaths of thousands and the recession sure to follow? The answer is simple...and yet not so simple. 1) Stock valuations are pricing in a RAPID recovery from today's contraction, the scientifically named "V-shape" 2) That recovery is informed by faith in a massive Federal Government intervention in the form of ongoing stimulus AND 3) Jear Bear's equally massive...
Tottering through the Storm
April 04, 2020 21:00 - 27 minutes - 18.8 MBThe Bear Rally falters as even the Trumpus admits that plague has come to America. The S&P sheds 2% as the jobs report signals the largest spike in employment since 1975 and unemployment claims reach stratospheric levels. But given that the world is ending, the market is still hovering below 2,500, where it was at the end of 2018. What gives? A cocktail of Federal Reserve intervention, news of the flimsiest Oil cartel in economic history and willful ignorance.
Don't let the Bear rally fool you
March 28, 2020 21:00 - 39 minutes - 27.1 MBWondering what happened this week? The Bear market of our generation lurched upward as news of the $2T stimulus resounded and the big boys exit their hedge positions (see Pershing Square). But don't be fooled. Unemployment claims are soaring to the heavens and the recession that follows will be truly terrible. That is not to say if you held on to SPXS, like we did, you didn't get absolutely drubbed this week. But hold fast friends, the worst is yet to come. If you're looking for BETA in ...
Is this a Bear Rally?
March 28, 2020 21:00 - 39 minutes - 27.1 MBWondering what happened this week? The Bear market of our generation lurched upward as news of the $2T stimulus resounded and the big boys exit their hedge positions (see Pershing Square).
The S&P is far from the bottom
March 21, 2020 22:00 - 23 minutes - 16.3 MBThe sky is falling...and so we exit our long positions... Why? Because the S&P is far from the bottom... The S&P shed another 15%, closing this week at ~2,300. How far will it go? If we use the last two recessions as proxy, the floor is somewhere between 1,650 and 1,850. And Robert's Fibonacci sequencing suggests a floor of 1,700. What does this mean? If you haven't sold out already, it's not too late. Sell your longs and take out a hedge. And thus our flier on SPXS is cruising. Behold t...
Is the S&P far from the bottom?
March 21, 2020 22:00 - 23 minutes - 16.3 MBThe sky is falling... Why? Because the S&P might be far from the bottom... The S&P shed another 15%, closing this week at ~2,300. How far will it go?
The Great Recession of 2020 is Here
March 14, 2020 20:00 - 43 minutes - 30 MBDon't be fooled by Trump's press conference. This week's sell-off is only the beginning.
The Great Recession of 2020 is Here!
March 14, 2020 20:00 - 43 minutes - 30 MBDon't be fooled by Trump's press conference. This week's sell-off is only the beginning. If 2008 is any measure, we have miles to go before the bottom. Economic participation will plummet as society droops into social distancing. The Fed has no power to dent it. And the bubble in Corporate Debt will be laid bare. The Secret History of recessions tell us that economic downturns are multiple and months-long. Therefore, we set a course to short the S&P in the near term, re-entering SPXS inver...
The Feather Strategy
March 08, 2020 01:00 - 5 minutes - 4.12 MBWhile stupendous volatility has roiled the markets, the S&P was effectively sideways this week, closing this Friday where it opened on Monday. But uncertainty is high, so much so that Jerry Powell announced a 50 bps rate cut to allay the Street and investors are growing increasingly concerned about the historic Corporate debt bubble.
Surviving the Stock-pocalypse!
February 29, 2020 20:00 - 39 minutes - 27.2 MBThe end is here! And like William Wallace at the Battle of Stirling Bridge, we were ready. The S&P notches its worst week since 2008 as the Coronavirus engenders fear throughout the world. In more trivial news, Bobby Iger surprises us all and replaces himself.
Black Fridays, Apple Sucks & Betting on Bloomberg
February 22, 2020 21:00 - 40 minutes - 27.6 MBCoronavirus strikes back, dragging the markets into destruction again, as aggregate output in the US and Japan slinks to a 6 year low. Allegedly companies like Apple and Nike are facing supply chain disruptions. Should we be shorting the market every Friday? For Fridays have been the doom of the market. SLACK bucks the market as rumors swirl of an impending contract with UBER to support messaging services for its drivers. WELLS FARGO pays $3B in fines to settle its fake accounts case. S...
Facebook is Evil Good & The Information Age is All
February 15, 2020 22:00 - 36 minutes - 25.4 MBThe Markets strike back, posting the biggest weekly gain since June 2019, as the financial elites move on from their angst over Coronavirus. The Long Summer continues with the Fed backstopping markets for eternity. But is there more to this than just the collusion between central banks and elites? Element 1: The Information Age is a revolution in economic affairs that creates explosive investment on capital Element 2: The Information Age began in America and has bred massive technology mo...
The Best CEOs of the Decade
February 01, 2020 20:00 - 54 minutes - 37.8 MBThe S&P falls this week for the first time in living memory. Then, we return to the advanced performance metric, Value over Sock, and proclaim the greatest non-founder CEOs of the decade. You won't believe who's #1.
Pandemic strikes! & the Degenerate Portfolio Unveiled
January 25, 2020 22:00 - 38 minutes - 26.6 MBWe unveil the Degenerate Portfolio! And plague has come to China, sparking a sell-off as fears of global pandemic fulminate. We reach back into the annals of history to discuss other plague fueled recessions, including: -the Black Death of 1347, which ironically, originated in China and came to Europe on the Silk Road, and which led to the greatest recession of all time -the Spanish Flu of 1918, which arguably contributed to the post World War 1 recession of 1918 -the SARS crisis of 20...
The pandemic strikes
January 25, 2020 22:00 - 38 minutes - 26.6 MBA plague has come to China, sparking a sell-off as fears of global pandemic fulminate. We reach back into the annals of history to discuss other plague fueled recessions, including: -the Black Death of 1347, which ironically, originated in China and came to Europe on the Silk Road, and which led to the greatest recession of all time -the Spanish Flu of 1918, which arguably contributed to the post World War 1 recession of 1918 -the SARS crisis of 2002-03 Again we discuss the multiplicit...
The Endless Rally
January 20, 2020 05:00 - 36 minutes - 24.8 MBThis Week! The S&P continues its historic run, but there may be sinister hands at work. And the China Trade Deal at last reaches safe harbor after an endless round of talks. Does it matter? No. Except maybe for BIDU?
The Meatless Revolution is at hand!
January 12, 2020 21:00 - 33 minutes - 23.1 MBWe explore a new approach to retirement.
The Meatless Revolution is at hand!
January 12, 2020 21:00 - 33 minutes - 23.1 MBWe explore a new approach to retirement.
The Lessons of 2019 and 2020 Predictions
December 28, 2019 21:00 - 44 minutes - 30.3 MBThe 2019 Year in Review! -The Cloud is Everything and Everything is in the Cloud -Prominent IPOs are dangerous -2020 will be a tough year for the S&P and a better year for Oil And we crown the Degenerate Champion of the Year.
Food Delivery is Doomed
December 15, 2019 01:00 - 36 minutes - 24.9 MBIn the MACROECONOMICS: The China Trade Deal is achieved! Sort of...The Chinese agree to buy more farm goods. The Americans agree to pump the brakes on tariffs. But hasn't this happened all before? November Retail sales were weak sauce. Does it matter? And the DEGENERATE CHAMPION OF THE WEEK returns! See who it is! In the BUSINESSES: Global Food Delivery heats up! European Delivery Hero buys South Korean rival Woowa. But is this whole industry slated for death? And Saudi Aramco is up i...
Google's Succession and Moonshots
December 07, 2019 21:00 - 29 minutes - 20.5 MBOn MACROECONOMICS CORNER: The jobs report strikes gain, propping the S&P as it chugs along in the face of all common sense. AND IN THE BUSINESSES: At Google, Larry Page passes the torch to Sundar Pichai. Does that mean anything?
UBER ascends and the case for BEYOND MEAT
November 24, 2019 02:00 - 42 minutes - 29.3 MBThe S&P! The S&P starts to waver, but the sell-off shan't happen until January. We remind you why! On that note, the Trumpian-China negotiations are waffling, adding to the miserable context of 1st quarter. What is our strategy? Elon Musk breaks glass... In other news, Elon Musk throws a metal ball at the window of his fake electric truck.
DISNEY breaks the doors off
November 16, 2019 21:00 - 36 minutes - 25.2 MBThe S&P cracks 3,100. This validates our theory that the trade deal never even mattered. So what's really happening? DISNEY+ breaks onto the scene. DISNEY+ is an early triumph, clocking 10M downloads in its infant launch
It's time to buy UBER
November 09, 2019 20:00 - 44 minutes - 30.5 MBJames is back for Macroeconomics Corner! So how in the world is the jobs report made? James sets it straight. Speaking of...the S&P is a god damned monster. It crept up from 3,067 to 3,093. This bodes poorly for our all-in, sure thing buy on SPXS, the triple leveraged inverse S&P ETF. Back to the Why? Strong corporate earnings, the jobs report, optimism about China trade...blah...blah...blah But what do the indicators look like? And what has the news cycle missed? QE4! On to Stock tip ...
Is it time to buy UBER?
November 09, 2019 20:00 - 44 minutes - 30.5 MBJames is back for Macroeconomics Corner! And back to Energy! James will tell us the saga of Chesapeake Energy.
The S&P is going down
November 02, 2019 16:00 - 34 minutes - 23.8 MBWE ARE SHORTING THE MARKET! This week we got a trifecta of irrational goodness. Supposedly strong corporate earnings, an allegedly strong jobs report and a 25 bps rate cut from Geraldo. Therefore, it is our time to bet on a slide down the mountain. James, Robert & I have all gone on in on SPXS, the triple leveraged inverse S&P. We explain why. WE RETURN TO EARNINGS SEASON: We hand out awards. The Winners: Facebook! The Winners of the Losers: Exxon Mobil & Valero The Losers: Be...
Is the S&P Going Down?
November 02, 2019 16:00 - 34 minutes - 23.8 MBWE RETURN TO EARNINGS SEASON: We hand out awards. The Winners: Facebook! The Winners of the Losers: Exxon Mobil & Valero The Losers: Beyond Meat plummets from $145 to $82. Wayfair skids from $118 to $82. Puegot and Fiat Chrysler. Mega mergers don't work!
Earnings Season is a Nothing Burger
October 27, 2019 18:00 - 27 minutes - 18.6 MBEARNINGS SEASON: Let's turn to the broader market and the return of earnings season. Earnings have been mostly a nothing burger. MICROSOFT delivered but did not impress. AMAZON tanked on crappy profit, but then corrected somewhat. VERIZON sold phones robustly. As we mentioned, SNAP ate it on lower 4Q guidance, which was unfair. And yet, the S&P surges forever forward on nebulous CHINA trade optimism.
NETFLIX is sideways
October 19, 2019 19:00 - 32 minutes - 22.4 MBAnd triumphantly, the DEGENERATE CHAMPION OF THE WEEK returns! KEN FISHER takes the crown. We explain why. In the BUSINESSES: We celebrate Robert's assessment of BEYOND MEAT, which has settled into mediocrity as he predicted. Marc Benioff waxes on about the advent of a new capitalism, sending Salesforce stock down to destruction. Come on Marc! NETFLIX goes up, then down, after lukewarm earnings. And Greg screwed the pooch on operation sell-off. So now what does he do? And finally we r...
NETFLIX is sideways
October 19, 2019 19:00 - 32 minutes - 22.4 MBAnd triumphantly, the DEGENERATE CHAMPION OF THE WEEK returns! KEN FISHER takes the crown. We explain why. In the BUSINESSES: We celebrate Robert's assessment of BEYOND MEAT, which has settled into mediocrity as he predicted. Marc Benioff waxes on about the advent of a new capitalism, sending Salesforce stock down to destruction. Come on Marc! NETFLIX goes up, then down, after lukewarm earnings. And Greg screwed the pooch on operation sell-off. So now what does he do? And finally we r...
NETFLIX is sideways & Robert plays both sides
October 19, 2019 19:00 - 32 minutes - 22.4 MBOff the top! FREE NFL PICKS! And triumphantly, the DEGENERATE CHAMPION OF THE WEEK returns! KEN FISHER takes the crown. We explain why. In the BUSINESSES: We celebrate Robert's assessment of BEYOND MEAT, which has settled into mediocrity as he predicted. Marc Benioff waxes on about the advent of a new capitalism, sending Salesforce stock down to destruction. Come on Marc! NETFLIX goes up, then down, after lukewarm earnings. And Greg screwed the pooch on operation sell-off. So now what...
China Week!
October 12, 2019 16:00 - 31 minutes - 21.6 MBRECAP! Coming out of the Fed meeting, James is a genius, but he sold off of TZA too soon. We acknowledge him as the father of Robert's triple leverage / heroin addiction. But what is the next frontier? James speaks on the lessons of trading through a recession. When you go long, stay in your long. And it's CHINA WEEK!America and China agree to some feeble truce. America promises no new tariffs, while China promises to buy US farm goods. And the NBA accidentally tracks into the dumpst...
A truce with China?
October 12, 2019 16:00 - 31 minutes - 21.6 MBRECAP! What is the next frontier? James speaks on the lessons of trading through a recession. When you go long, stay in your long. And America and China agree to some feeble truce. America promises no new tariffs, while China promises to buy US farm goods. And the NBA accidentally tracks into the dumpster zone, after Daryl Morey lends twitter support to the protesters in Hong Kong.
The Secret History of Recessions
October 06, 2019 00:00 - 35 minutes - 24.3 MBOn MACROECONOMICS CORNER: We tell the history of the last 4 recessions to help us understand risk.
Peloton Fails & We Nailed WeWork
September 28, 2019 06:00 - 37 minutes - 25.7 MBIn the BUSINESSES: Peloton tanks in it's opening foray into the public markets. Surely this is a fad. And let us add it to the ranks of the fallen among new IPOs: LYFT, UBER, SLACK. The lesson? Stay away from immediate openings. And feast after they crash. WeWork jettisons Adam Neumann as CEO and his retainers, finally realizing that his gun-slinging antics were the stuff of fraud. We nailed it. But was there anything to his idea about the future of work.
Apple bores me...
September 21, 2019 23:00 - 31 minutes - 21.3 MBIn the BUSINESSES: We discuss the doom of Apple, in celebration of the iPhone 11 release. Also, we continue to be ahead of our time. Malcolm Gladwell proposed the following solution to the player empowerment era...player equity stakes in partnerships. Did he listen to our podcast about the NFL going public?
Our Big Short...Sort of...
September 14, 2019 22:00 - 34 minutes - 24.1 MBJames Lin returns to the studio, which is a room in my house, to take a victory lap on Deutsche Bank. He also weighs in on how the US-China trade war works, informing us that China cannot be beaten. Finally he praises our foresight on the clownery of WeWork. Robert goes risk off in preparation for the FED meeting next week. And I beg the question. What is a leveraged ETF?