Actionable Intelligence Alert
148 episodes - English - Latest episode: 11 months ago - ★★★★★ - 17 ratingsTimely discussion on investing/speculating with an emphasis on seeking out market beating returns from a deep value and contrarian perspective.
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www.actionableintelligencealert.com
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Episodes
New Swiss Physical Uranium Fund Created As Uranium Prices Break Higher. AIA Weekly Report 5-27-23
May 28, 2023 12:06 - 47 minutes - 43.5 MBNew physical uranium fund with $100 million initial placement. Uranium prices look to have broken higher out of a wedge formation. Fred Hickey author of High Tech Strategist sees continued declines in Tech Sector stocks and the overall stockmarket. Why he is bullish on gold.
The biggest and broadest asset bubble I’ve ever studied, Stan Druckenmiller. AIA 5-13-23
May 14, 2023 12:19 - 57 minutes - 52.4 MBBillionaire hedge fund manager says the current asset bubble is more significant than any has seen and even bigger than anything he has ever studied. More positive nuclear energy news articles. The Iranians dumped 100 million barrels of oil on the market over the last three months. Has this contributed to the recent price weakness in oil?
The Banking Crisis Is Not Over. FED Says Banking System Is Ok. AIA Weekly 5-6-23
May 07, 2023 12:09 - 1 hour - 59.2 MBThe current financial system is built to work on low-interest rates and high liquidity. The exact opposite exists. Expect more banking system issues and further issues to manifest negatively as things break in the economy.
Cameco First Quarter Results Reaffirm Continued Nuclear Renaissance. AIA Weekly 4-29-23
April 30, 2023 12:18 - 55 minutes - 51 MBI review the Cameco first quarter 2023 earnings call. It was very positive and reaffirmed the continued upswing in the nuclear energy and uranium market.
Tracking The Impact Of Rate Increases And Tightening Liquidity. AIA Weekly Update 4-23-23
April 23, 2023 20:33 - 44 minutes - 40.3 MBI came upon a methodology conceived by analysts at Piper Standler to track the effect of interest rate increases on the economy. It will require additional research and refining of data sets but I think it will be helpful in the analysis of where we are in the economic cycle.
China Recovery Struggling? India Oil Demand Surging. Effect On Oil Demand. AIA Weekly 4-15-23
April 16, 2023 15:47 - 54 minutes - 50.1 MBThe China reopening might be struggling to gain momentum. Will this lead to less oil demand growth? India's oil demand continues to make new all-time highs.
Yes Gold Is In A Bull Market. Why Most Will Lose Money Trading It. AIA 4-8-23
April 09, 2023 12:38 - 1 hour - 64.7 MBI believe gold is in a new bull market. However, most people try and take advantage of it by buying junior gold mining stocks. This is a difficult way to make money and I explain why.
The move to a multi-polar world continues. AIA Weekly Update 4-1-23
April 09, 2023 12:37 - 35 minutes - 32.1 MBSeveral countries have applied for BRICs membership. International flights to and from China begin to resume. I still expect higher oil prices as we progress through 2023
But Janet Yellen Said We Would Never Have Another Banking Crisis. AIA Weekly 3-25-23
March 26, 2023 12:03 - 1 hour - 62.4 MBBack in 2017, Janet Yellen said it was likely we would never have another banking crisis in our lifetime. The whole banking system is a confidence game and these people are just making it up as they go along. Believe them at your own risk.
The US Must Inflate Or Die. AIA Weekly 3-18-23
March 19, 2023 12:14 - 1 hour - 68.8 MBThings are breaking due to rates being too high. In the past, every time we had a financial crisis the FED always went back to the playbook of papering over the problem. Are we closer to the end of the tightening cycle or the beginning? What asset classes benefit from a cycle of excess liquidity?
As Liquidity Tightens Things Continue To Break In The Economy. AIA Weekly 3-11-23
March 11, 2023 22:52 - 1 hour - 57.7 MBWith the failure this week of Silicon Valley Bank I believe we are seeing the results of continuing liquidity tightening. If the FED continues raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet you will see more of this.
Why I Sold Peabody Energy Stock. AIA Weekly 3-4-23
March 05, 2023 13:13 - 1 hour - 61 MBI had two tranches of coal producer Peabody Energy in the AIA portfolio. I discuss why I bought the shares and why I recently sold both positions for 400-600% gains.
Economic Indicators Point To Weak Economy And Lower Stock Market. AIA Weekly Market 2-25-23
February 25, 2023 19:28 - 49 minutes - 45 MBMore data sets are lining up to indicate that the economy is weakening and yet the market has been rallying. My view is the lag effects of the rapid rise in the FED funds rate still have not fully shown themselves in the economy.
AIA Economic Base Case For 2023. AIA Weekly Update 2-18-23
February 19, 2023 13:21 - 57 minutes - 52.8 MBI give my base case for the economy and what I am looking at for the rest of the year. I caveat this by reiterating that I am not an economist. I am looking at data points that in the past have led to certain outcomes. Notably a recession. However, keep in my mind that as new information comes in I may change my forecast and that forces me to change course with various investments. Again this is not investment advice.
Cameco Reports Largest Nuclear Fuel Deal Ever. AIA Weekly 2-11-23
February 18, 2023 03:17 - 1 hour - 62.9 MBCameco reported the largest fuel deal ever signed by the company. The deal is with the Ukraine State Energy Company. Other discussion points This Week -Japan reaffirms extensions to nuclear plants and commitment to nuclear energy. -Shell's board being sued by climate activists -Duke Energy takes big impairment on sale of renewable business -Jet fuel demand soaring as China leaves pandemic -Investigative article on US complicity in Nordstream 2 sabotage
Even More Positive Uranium News! AIA Weekly Report 2-4-23
February 05, 2023 13:18 - 57 minutes - 52.5 MBIn this week's video: -Yellowcake upsizes offering from $50 to $75 million -Sprott Junior Uranium ETF begins trading -How much spot uranium is really out there. One trader says if he tried to buy 1 million pounds it bump Uranium's price $5/lb -Uh oh. Cramer said to buy oil.
Actionable Intelligence Alert Weekly Market Report. 1-28-23
January 29, 2023 13:20 - 55 minutes - 50.2 MBLots of news this week: -KazAtomProm production downgraded by 4-5 million pounds in 2023 -Chile's copper production down for four years in a row. -Biden administration kills major copper mine in Minnesota -Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback and increases dividend.
China Sets Coal Production Record In 2022. "We Don't Want To Be Like Europe". AIA Weekly 1-21-23
January 22, 2023 13:24 - 1 hour - 63.9 MBChina set coal production records in 2022. The country will build 270 GW of New Coal Generation Capability by 2025. Why? They say because of energy security.
Chinese Travel Demand Is Bouncing Back Quickly. Oil Demand To Hit New Highs In Q2 2023. AIA 1-14-22
January 14, 2023 19:48 - 39 minutes - 36.5 MBOne of the main ideas at AIA for 2023 is the return to normal of the Chinese economy and how this will affect oil and other commodity prices. Traffic congestion and air travel are bouncing back quickly since the CCP lifted the lockdowns on Chinese citizens. Forecasts are for up to 103 million barrels per day of oil demand by Q2 of 2023. The question is can the world produce this amount of oil?
Uranium Is Still My Highest Conviction Thesis. AIA Weekly 1-7-23
January 08, 2023 04:13 - 1 hour - 58 MBAlthough the price of uranium mining stocks did not perform well in 2022 as many uranium investors might have liked, the fundamentals in my opinion have never been better. I do not know if 2023 will be better, especially in the context of a general market bear market and tightening of liquidity. Nevertheless, I remain bullish and will add on dips.
China Embarks On New Liquidity Impulse To Stimulate Economy As Country Reopens. AIA Weekly 12-31-22
January 01, 2023 13:35 - 48 minutes - 44 MBAs reported China is not wasting time and is re-opening its economy by ripping the band-aid off. There should be a lull as the virus sweeps through the population. However, experience in other countries tells us that when herd immunity is achieved we should see a rush of consumer spending as the population emerges from three years of lockdowns. This coincides with the PBOC now engaging in a new liquidity cycle which in the past has led to a rise in commodity prices.
Stock Of The Year Pick For 2023. AIA Weekly 12-23-22
December 23, 2022 21:58 - 57 minutes - 52.4 MBThis may or not be the last video for 2022. Merry Christmas! In this video, I talk about the stock of the year pick for 2023. The point of the SOY is blatant and unashamed clickbait for the channel and newsletter. The premise is to select a highly speculative stock that has catalysts that could lead to a doubling in the stock price over the next year. In the past, I did this and was successful for three or four years in a row.
The Negative Fundamentals For Oil Are Now Reversing. Higher oil Prices In 2023? AIA Weekly 12-17-22
December 17, 2022 17:11 - 1 hour - 55.1 MBThe fundamentals in the oil market that were causing weakness in the oil market over the last six months now appear to be reversing and becoming tailwinds. -Chinese economy opening up from three years of zero Covid policy. This could result in 2-3 million barrels of demand. -SPR releases ending. Biden administration now announcing refills of SPR. 1 million barrels per day of supply off the market. -Russian supply was juiced due to get ahead of sanctions earlier this month. 500-800k of...
Oil Market Update And What I Am Doing Currently. AIA Weekly Market Update 12-10-22
December 11, 2022 13:23 - 1 hour - 61.4 MBPeople want answers and in this video, I give an update about how I see things in the short, medium, and long term.
The US Has Become The Swing Oil Producer Of Last Resort. AIA Weekly 12-3-22
December 04, 2022 13:04 - 1 hour - 61.6 MBThe US just hit a record for overall petroleum exports (both crude oil and refined products). Much of this has come from the SPR releases and exports to the EU due to sanctions on Europe's main energy supplier Russia.
Oil Fundamentals Are Mixed As Prices Fall. What's Up? AIA Weekly Update 11-26-22
November 26, 2022 20:33 - 58 minutes - 53.9 MBOil prices got clobbered over the last couple of weeks. However, long-term fundamentals have not changed in my view. In this week's video, I try and explain what is happening in the oil markets. China re-opening, recession in the US and EU, Emerging market demand growth, etc...
We Are Seeing Who Is Swimming Naked. My Comments On FTX and Crypto. AIA Weekly 11-19-22
November 19, 2022 23:27 - 1 hour - 55.9 MBI am no expert on crypto and have dabbled in it in the past. However, I was always aware of the bubblicous conditions surrounding it facilitated mainly by years of low-interest rates along with investor's insatiable desire to get rich quick. Oil got nuked this week. Is this the beginning of deflation?
Is The Era Of Shale Gas Growth Over? Where Will Supply Come From? AIA Weekly 11-12-22
November 12, 2022 14:00 - 1 hour - 67 MBWith tier-one assets developed along with constraints on the industry with respect to supplies and manpower are we at the end of continuous growth of shale oil and gas? Follow me on Twitter: @JohnPolomny Follow me at my blog: www.actionableintelligencealert.com Interested in knowing how I translate the information in these videos into investment ideas? Consider a subscription to my paid newsletter “Actionable Intelligence Alert”. You can check it out by going to: https://prudentsquirr...
Joe Biden Upset Because the Oil Companies Are Doing Exactly What He Told Then To Do. AIA 11-5-22
November 05, 2022 19:12 - 1 hour - 79 MBWhen Joe Biden was running for President he told us he was going to "end fossil fuels". Now that high oil prices and in particular gasoline and diesel prices are contributing to record inflation he is mad at them for doing what he told them to do. The lack of a coherent energy policy across not only the US but the entire west is opening up a host of opportunities for investors and speculators like us.
High Energy Costs Force Permanent Plant Closures In Germany. AIA Weekly 10-29-22
October 29, 2022 18:38 - 57 minutes - 52.4 MBThe world's largest chemical company, Germany-based BASF, is announcing permanent plant closures and restructuring of its facilities in Germany. I forecasted this would happen and it will continue all over the EU until the Europeans figure out how to replace cheap and plentiful Russian gas.
Bloomberg Says Net Zero To Cost $114 Trillion Dollars. Will This Really Happen? AIA Weekly 10-22-22
October 22, 2022 17:50 - 1 hour - 70.7 MBBloomberg Green article says the transition to 100% zero carbon will cost $114 trillion dollars. That is 5-6 times the size of the US single-year GDP. I don't think that will happen. Nevertheless, the political class will move this agenda forward. Heads we win, tails we win more.
Peak ESG Has Been Reached. Jamie Dimon Says, "Investors Don't Give A Sh*t About ESG." AIA Weekly Report 10-15-22
October 16, 2022 12:31 - 49 minutes - 45.6 MBInteresting comments out of JP Morgan CEO this week regarding our energy policies in the US. In addition, it looks like the zeitgeist is moving away from ESG, at least by the bankers.
OPEC+ Cuts Quota by 2 Mbd. CNBC Karen Reporter Accuses OPEC Of Supporting Russia. AIA 10-8-22
October 09, 2022 12:24 - 1 hour - 63.1 MBAs most of you know the OPEC members decided on a 2 million barrel per day reduction to their production quota. This is not necessarily a cut in production because the organization members were already underproducing their quotas by 3.5 million barrels. Nevertheless, this is a big boost for oil prices because it represents a sentiment shift in oil markets. Of course, oil markets responded by rallying. I discuss the second-order effects in this video.
Europe Has A Shortage Of Energy Molecules. Prepare For Gas To Oil Switching. AIA Weekly 10-1-2022
October 02, 2022 12:34 - 1 hour - 58.8 MBWith the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipeline destruction last week, the EU energy situation is now critical. However, the various industries will try and adapt as best they can. One way to adapt will be to replace gas consumption with oil consumption. This could be close to a million barrels per day.
Falling Liquidity And Intermarket Relationships Wrecking Havoc on Markets. AIA Weekly 9-24-22
September 25, 2022 18:22 - 1 hour - 72.1 MBAs Stan Druckenmiller has said," “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets...”~ Stan Druckenmiller This is what we are seeing and it will continue until central banks pause and go back into a new liquidity cycle.
It Looks Like A Tanker Supercycle Is Starting. AIA Weekly Report 9-17-22.
September 17, 2022 17:35 - 1 hour - 56.8 MBDue to sanctions placed on Russia by the EU, oil and refined products now need to be sourced from places more distant from the EU than before. This is causing more ton-miles for the existing tanker fleet. This is also causing rates to skyrocket as there are not enough tankers to move all this product further distances. It appears, that for as long as sanctions are in place, we are looking at a time of elevated rates for tankers.
"It's a question of energy". India Energy Minister, "I have a moral duty to my consumers". AIA Weekly 9-10-22
September 10, 2022 21:33 - 1 hour - 61.1 MBThe energy minister was interviewed on CNBC. He was asked why is India still buying oil from Russia. The interviewer tried to make the purchase of oil from Russia a moral issue. The minister wasn't going to have it. He is responsible to India not the EU, the US, or Ukraine.
Russia Shuts Nordstream 1 Indefinitely. EU Economy Collapsing. AIA Weekly 9-3-22
September 03, 2022 18:05 - 48 minutes - 44.4 MBIt was announced yesterday that the Nordstream 1 pipeline will be down indefinitely. The only Russian gas coming into the EU is coming in through the pipelines from Ukraine. That will not be enough. We are now seeing story after story of businesses shutting down and jobs lost.
Rick Rule Was Right. Japan Pivot Back To Nuclear Power Causes Resumption Of Uranium Bull Market
August 28, 2022 15:28 - 51 minutes - 46.8 MBFor several years billionaire resource investor Rick Rule maintained the view that a real move higher in uranium prices would be incumbent on the restoration of nuclear energy in Japan. It seems he was proved correct as Japan recommitted to nuclear energy in the past week which caused a blastoff in uranium stock prices.
Saudi Aramco CEO, "We Are On The Right Side Of Reality". AIA Weekly 8-20-2022
August 19, 2022 22:39 - 48 minutes - 44 MBRecent comments by the Sadi Aramco CEO and the CEO of OPEC back up what we have been saying for a while now. Although the west is moving rapidly to transition away from oil, the rest of the world, and the majority, will be using oil for decades.
Peak ESG? Japan To Turn On More Reactors. Power Prices In Europe Make New Highs. AIA Weekly 8-13-22
August 13, 2022 18:04 - 52 minutes - 48.4 MBLots of energy news this week. Power prices in Europe are soaring to record highs. How long can this continue until there is a political backlash? Japan vows to turn on more nuclear reactors for energy security.
Oil Prices Are Dropping But There Is Always A Bull Market Somewhere. AIA Weekly Report 8-6-22
August 06, 2022 19:34 - 1 hour - 57.9 MBOil prices have been dropping over the past couple of months. I explore why this is and where oil prices might be going. Although oil prices are dropping natural gas and coal prices are at historical highs. Why it might be a while before they drop.
US Oil Majors Report Record Quarterly Results. AIA Weekly 7-30-22
August 02, 2022 02:00 - 51 minutes - 47.6 MBExxon and Chevron reported record quarterly results this week as record refining margins along with high oil prices resulted in excellent results. European oil majors also reported excellent results with several companies announcing additional returns of capital to shareholders via share buybacks.
Why Oilfield Services Are Going To Boom. AIA Weekly Update 7-23-22
July 23, 2022 14:41 - 1 hour - 55.3 MBSchlumberger, the world's largest oilfield service provider, just reported a tremendous quarter, guiding their business substantially higher for the next few quarters. This report along with Halliburton's bullish report earlier this week indicates that we finally have an upswing in the oilfield services sector. A boom that I believe will outshine previous booms.
Has US Inflation Peaked? AIA Weekly Report 7-16-2022
July 17, 2022 00:12 - 1 hour - 67.2 MBCPI came in at a decades high of 9.1%. If calculated the way it was in 1980 it is actually 17%! I also discuss how far oil could fall in the current recession.
Why Is Warren Buffett Buying Oil Stocks? AIA Weekly Update 7-9-22
July 09, 2022 20:38 - 56 minutes - 51.7 MBIn the past, Buffett has said he does not like cyclical or commodity-type businesses. Yet he has been buying Oxy and Chevron stock. What gives. I discuss in this week's video.
Is The Market Shifting From Concern Over Inflation To Recession? AIA Weekly 7-2-22
July 03, 2022 13:01 - 1 hour - 56.9 MBThe bond market seems to be shifting from concern over inflation to economic weakness. The bond market forecasts a rate cut in the first half of 2023. The energy crisis continues as the "leadership" in the EU and the US just can't stop digging their hole deeper.
Will Energy Stocks Buckle Under The Weight Of Higher Rates? AIA Weekly Report 6-18-22.
June 18, 2022 17:56 - 1 hour - 60.3 MBRates are being raised by the FED. However, the market has raised rates well in advance of FED. Consequently, the FED is way behind the curve. How far can rates go up before an over-indebted economy full of malinvestment begins to break? How will this affect energy prices? Will liquidity and sentiment overwhelm the positive long-term energy fundamentals in the short term?
How To Take Advantage of the Joe Biden Recession. AIA Weekly Report 6-11-2022
June 12, 2022 21:22 - 49 minutes - 45.5 MBConsumer confidence is at an all-time low. Credit card debt is at an all-time high. Energy costs continue to strangle the US consumer and economy. I give a free stock pick that could soar during a recession.
Energy Crisis Continues As Oil Closes Week At $120 a Barrel. AIA Weekly Market Report 6-4-22
June 05, 2022 12:48 - 49 minutes - 45.6 MBThe energy crisis continues. At some point, the energy price will rise to a sufficient price to choke off demand. The question is what is that price? $150, $200, or even $300 per barrel. In the meantime, many of the stocks in the Actionable Intelligence Alert Newsletter are printing tons of money.