77 - Danger in the Air, Danger in the Streets (7.28.2020)

Some 4.25 million Americans have come down with confirmed cases of coronavirus, with deaths nearing the 150,000 mark. And California joins Florida and Texas as one of the hot spots. The Golden State is about a week or two away from reaching half a million confirmed cases and 9,000 deaths, just as the school year starts up. In various counties, 1 in 100 people have tested positive for the virus, and down at the border in Imperial County, the number is closer to 1 in 20.

Here in Sacramento County, we're at about the 1 in 200 mark, though we've been surprised by a spike in July. We've crossed the 9,000 case threshold, with 114 deaths--though our curve seems to be evening a bit as well.

Four months into the shutdown, there's a lot we know about COVID-19, and a lot more we don't know. We discuss some of the things we do and don't know about the virus four months in, using a comprehensive write-up from UCSF Magazine as our core reference.

 
Trump's re-election bid appears to be in serious trouble at the moment thanks to coronavirus, with experts hinting that it is quickly getting out of hand just under 100 days out (Cook Political, FiveThirtyEight, The Economist). Nate Silver did an analysis of the last 13 elections over the weekend, applying his model to each race 100 days out--correctly guessing 11 out of 13. The ones the model got wrong? Dukakis in 1988 (61% chance 100 days out) and Clinton in 2016 (58%). Currently The Economist has Biden at a 90% chance to win.
 
We then move to the death of Garrett Foster, an Austin protester who was shot and killed at a Black Lives Matter demonstration last weekend. A lot of folks don't yet seem to understand just how dangerous things are out there for protesters. Police using tear gas and weapons capable of killing. Right-wingers showing up to start trouble. People running demonstrators over with their cars.
 
In recent weeks we saw racists shouting down BLM demonstrators in Placerville, and protesters in Loomis met by aggressive counter-demonstrators. We know folks who have been hit by cars, and who regularly receive threats in their inboxes after demonstrations. Given the violence we've seen around the country, these threats need to be taken seriously.
 

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