Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
324 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 22 hours ago - ★★★★★ - 3 ratingsThere is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp.
For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.
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Episodes
The Tortured Bond Investors Department
April 22, 2024 14:24 - 10 minutes - 9.59 MBBen Bernanke v the Bank of England.
UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts
April 19, 2024 07:29 - 11 minutes - 10.7 MBAnd: Skyscraper - I Love You.
India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance
March 27, 2024 17:46 - 16 minutes - 15 MBAnd RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.
Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?
March 25, 2024 09:01 - 9 minutes - 8.49 MBLooser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.
Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.
March 22, 2024 09:14 - 12 minutes - 11.4 MBAnd I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).
Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.
March 20, 2024 08:31 - 8 minutes - 7.7 MBAlso: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.
The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵
March 18, 2024 08:18 - 11 minutes - 10.9 MBThe BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’s FOMC.
Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?
March 14, 2024 09:17 - 10 minutes - 9.38 MBAnd in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!
The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading
March 11, 2024 08:38 - 10 minutes - 10.2 MBThe latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.
No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK
March 07, 2024 08:58 - 12 minutes - 11.5 MBWhat does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?
No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data
February 29, 2024 15:56 - 11 minutes - 10.4 MBAnd a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.
Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike
February 26, 2024 21:21 - 8 minutes - 8.28 MBAnd the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?
Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?
February 23, 2024 09:47 - 9 minutes - 8.61 MBThe AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.
Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?
February 21, 2024 09:52 - 18 minutes - 16.8 MBAnd some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!
‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧
February 19, 2024 08:43 - 10 minutes - 9.66 MBAnd the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.
Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking
February 09, 2024 15:56 - 9 minutes - 8.65 MBAnd more motorway related urban myths.
Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?
February 04, 2024 11:52 - 7 minutes - 6.99 MBAnd US employment is still on 🔥.
Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan
January 28, 2024 02:21 - 15 minutes - 14 MBWhat’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don’t say Frank Sinatra.
How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa
January 19, 2024 08:29 - 12 minutes - 11.2 MBAlso: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.
Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?
January 16, 2024 09:25 - 10 minutes - 9.34 MBGrowth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.
Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!
January 12, 2024 14:36 - 9 minutes - 9.13 MBLowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.
Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot
January 08, 2024 09:44 - 12 minutes - 11.5 MBHuge supply wave in January.
Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
January 05, 2024 12:46 - 12 minutes - 11.7 MBElection year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special
December 14, 2023 13:27 - 38 minutes - 36.1 MBMan I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.
The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
December 06, 2023 15:12 - 9 minutes - 8.7 MBIn which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.
Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock
December 01, 2023 07:18 - 10 minutes - 9.81 MBAnd Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.
Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally
November 29, 2023 08:54 - 11 minutes - 11 MBAlso Noah Smith on productivity
The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?
November 25, 2023 09:42 - 13 minutes - 12.6 MBGilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.
The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.
November 19, 2023 18:17 - 11 minutes - 10.7 MBUS CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.
US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.
November 13, 2023 09:24 - 10 minutes - 9.46 MBWe also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.
Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny!
November 06, 2023 14:11 - 9 minutes - 8.83 MBAlso today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.
Trump Trades 2024
November 03, 2023 10:27 - 13 minutes - 12.7 MBWhat would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?
UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview
October 26, 2023 11:13 - 31 minutes - 15.2 MBBanking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.
The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.
October 22, 2023 20:04 - 11 minutes - 10.8 MBAlso: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.
UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1
October 16, 2023 09:21 - 29 minutes - 27.4 MBA deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.
US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally
October 13, 2023 07:53 - 12 minutes - 11.2 MBAnd Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.
US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy.
October 09, 2023 07:34 - 12 minutes - 11.5 MBAnd a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook.
101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off
October 06, 2023 08:58 - 11 minutes - 10.6 MBAnd why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.
A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves
October 02, 2023 07:35 - 11 minutes - 10.5 MBAnd Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.
Are the Monetarists Back?
September 29, 2023 13:47 - 11 minutes - 10.3 MBIf they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…
What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid.
September 25, 2023 16:05 - 10 minutes - 9.34 MBBonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.
A Wall of Worry For Bonds
September 22, 2023 12:12 - 12 minutes - 11.6 MBAlso: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.
Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook.
September 20, 2023 19:22 - 10 minutes - 9.35 MBA Dynamically Priced Episode of IJWOB. Send me a fiver.
Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields?
September 18, 2023 07:58 - 10 minutes - 9.29 MBLots of central bank activity this week, albeit with a lurking threat from higher oil and rents.
Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds
September 11, 2023 08:06 - 13 minutes - 12.9 MBIs Season 11 ‘The One Where The Fed Stops Hiking’? Find out soon.
UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️
August 25, 2023 11:06 - 27 minutes - 25.6 MBAll your summer bond market fun in one place.
The End of Season 10 of UJWOB
July 28, 2023 14:06 - 14 minutes - 13.1 MBThree central banks, three policy actions. Oooh, and SUPERCONDUCTOR HOPE!
Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers
July 24, 2023 17:14 - 9 minutes - 9.24 MBFed, ECB and BOJ. Central bankers are spoiling us.
Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers.
July 19, 2023 07:28 - 7 minutes - 7.22 MBAnd Chinese property bonds fall.
The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds.
July 17, 2023 07:59 - 10 minutes - 9.34 MBBut bad news from the Chinese economy as GDP disappoints.