79 - Michael Story - Superforecasting
Two for Tea Podcast
English - February 21, 2021 12:00 - 1 hour - 124 MB - ★★★★★ - 52 ratingsNews Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
For more on Michael visit:
https://michaelwstory.com/
Follow Michael on Twitter @MWStory
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015)
Tom Chivers, The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World (2019)
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (2012)
James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few (2005)
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)
Metaculus:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
Timestamps
03:43 The process of superforecasting with the example of predicting how long it would take to develop a coronavirus vaccine
12:50 The wisdom of crowds
18:04 The inside vs. outside view, anchors and base rates
23:15 The foxes versus the hedgehogs
29:39 The conjunction fallacy
37:15 Accountability, falsifiability, Brier scores
46:54 Loss of institutional credibility: a problem or an opportunity?
01:02:05 The importance of A/B testing
01:06:36 Back of the envelope (Fermi) calculations
01:12:11 Psychological characteristics of superforecasters, caring about being wrong