Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast
287 episodes - English - Latest episode: 19 days ago - ★★★★★ - 71 ratingsIn this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Economist, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Associate Managing Director.
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Episodes
The Elephant In the Room
July 03, 2024 19:14 - 28 minutes - 39 MBThe recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Joe Biden’s effort result in a new Democratic candidate? In this week’s Trading Perspectives...
In Some Places, the More Things Change the More They Don’t.
June 27, 2024 15:06 - 27 minutes - 37.7 MBWith China as the most notable exception, the world’s richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world’s poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering out? How do some economies without any natural resources perform so well while others with an a...
The G7, Giorgia Meloni and the Rest of the Lot
June 20, 2024 17:02 - 23 minutes - 31.7 MBRecently, the G7 held its annual meeting in Italy. In the past, this gathering got a lot of media attention. Recently, it hasn’t, and this year was no exception. After all, the only leader of the group who is certain to be at next year’s event is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. As a result, some have called the meeting “Meloni & the 6 Lame Ducks.” This relative weakness from the developed, western world’s leaders comes at an inopportune time. The Global South, led by China, is increasingly flexing i...
Elon's Big Payday
June 13, 2024 18:23 - 24 minutes - 33.7 MBWith the news surrounding Elon Musk’s potential $50+ billion pay package from Tesla, people are again focusing on CEO pay in general. Should these people be making THAT much money? While the headline numbers are truly mindboggling, is there more to it than meets the eye? Is there a difference between income and wealth creation when analyzing an executive’s true value to a company? Further, do shareholders really care if the company is making them money? Finally, do we really want the governm...
Global Elections Have Global Ramifications
May 29, 2024 16:46 - 23 minutes - 32.8 MBSouth Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament are all having elections over the next 6 weeks. Individually, each of them has consequences for the United States and their own regions. Combined, they could very easily have a massive global impact. Will the South Africans continue their drift into the Chinese and Russian orbits? Will Mexico continue to move further away from the center, as it has under its current President? Will the United Kingdom be able to stop its dec...
The Inevitable Energy Crunch
May 23, 2024 15:26 - 22 minutes - 30.7 MBThe world’s population is growing. Most of these people will be in third-world countries. They will aspire to have creature comforts Americans take for granted. Things like appliances and central air. In the United States, accelerated computing (AI), cloud and blockchain technologies and electric vehicles consume a lot of energy off the already stretched grid. In short, the demand for electricity, energy in general, is poised to accelerate over the next several decades. Is the global grid pr...
How Much Longer Can the Market Rally?
May 16, 2024 20:43 - 23 minutes - 32.7 MBThe U.S. stock market has been surprisingly strong thus far in 2024. This, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut the overnight rate, and doesn’t appear poised to do so anytime soon. So, what is driving the current optimism? How much higher can stock prices climb? What will it take for U.S. investors to finally sell their positions? Should we reimagine the traditional methods of valuing the markets? Are the younger generations changing the rules of the game? In this week’s Tr...
Perception vs. Reality? Or Is It Something in Between?
May 09, 2024 16:16 - 22 minutes - 30.3 MBWashington continues to report rosy economic data, and the general public continues to not believe it. Why is the average American so down on the economy when the official data suggests they should be happy? Is it inflation? Is it societal divisiveness? What is the real story? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the disconnect between the public’s perception of the economy and what the government is saying is the reality. Who is right?
Are the Ivies Still Worth It?
April 24, 2024 17:27 - 22 minutes - 30.7 MBThe recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What’s more, will it ever again. In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing protests at numerous...
Can the United States Win A Global War?
April 18, 2024 19:39 - 23 minutes - 32.1 MBWith all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What’s more, is the American public ready for such a thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss about American military preparedness in what is increasingly a dange...
California Dreaming - Minimum Wage Edition
April 10, 2024 20:37 - 22 minutes - 30.4 MBLast week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn’t just going to be employers. Don’t tell anyone in Sacramento that, though. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the concept of the minimum wage and what it...
Is the Key Bridge Key to the Economy?
April 03, 2024 20:28 - 22 minutes - 30.6 MBLast week, a wayward container ship struck the Key Bridge causing it to collapse. This effectively closed the Port of Baltimore until the powers that be can clear the wreckage from the shipping channel. Will these delay derail the US economy? Will it cause supply chain issues up and down the East Coast? Will we have to wait months for our cars, our coal and our sugar? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent collapse of the Key Bridge and what the indefinite clo...
Our Men & Women in Haiti?
March 28, 2024 19:13 - 23 minutes - 32.1 MBThe recent turmoil in Haiti begs the question just what is the United States’ role in that fractured country? However, what should our role be in the Democratic Republic of Congo? Somalia? Myanmar? Gaza? Ukraine? The jungles of Colombia? Central America? And any other place which is suffering with internal strife, famine, civil war and worse, if that is possible? Should Washington spend taxpayer money and risk American lives meddling in other countries’ affairs? Are there any generational di...
EV or Not EV? That is the Question.
March 21, 2024 16:40 - 24 minutes - 33.7 MBThis week the Administration restated tailpipe emission standards which will effectively end the American auto industry as we currently know it. The goal is simple: to have more Americans drive more electric vehicles in order to drive down harmful carbon emissions. However, as the old saying goes, for every action there is a reaction. Did the Administration really think through all of the probable consequences of its emissions mandate? At first blush, it wouldn’t appear so. On this week’s ...
Can't Buy Me Love?
March 13, 2024 16:04 - 24 minutes - 34 MBEverywhere you look, it seems people are doing better than you are. They drive nicer cars. Eat better food. Wear nicer clothes. Have cooler friends. Take fancier trips. You name it. However, the chances are someone is looking at you, and feeling the same way. This begs the question: can money really buy happiness in a society which consumes so much of it? At first blush, it would seem so. But can it really? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about whether money truly ca...
Not So Super Tuesday
March 06, 2024 20:05 - 23 minutes - 32.4 MBWhat if they threw an election and no one cared? After all, both Biden and Trump had pretty much locked up their party’s nomination long before this week. So, a lot of Americans didn’t even bother voting. How will the sense of resignation impact the consumer and markets over the long months to November? Is the recent rally in cryptocurrencies and precious metals due to this sour sentiment, this angst, or something else? How much longer can it last? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam ...
To Spend or Not to Spend? That is the Question.
February 29, 2024 21:27 - 22 minutes - 31.3 MBThe government says the economy is growing rapidly and the U.S. consumer is alive and well. However, people don’t seem to believe this apparent good fortune, and complain about having to tighten their belts. So, just how strong is the U.S. consumer? And, what would you least be willing to cut out of your budget if worst came to worst? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about what they would chop and what they would keep in their budget if times really got tight. Are the...
When Will Inflation Quit Inflating?
February 14, 2024 18:36 - 25 minutes - 35 MBThis week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher in January than analysts had been predicting. The markets didn’t like the news, much like consumers. The question remains: how much longer will inflation be a problem? If higher interest rates can’t do it alone, what must happen in the economy? And from what Washington has been telling us, the economy has been chugging along nicely. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the rec...
The Case Against Emerging Markets
January 31, 2024 22:15 - 21 minutes - 29.7 MBThere is little argument much of this century’s economic growth will come from emerging economies. However, that doesn’t mean there will always be money to be made in them for US investors. Growth is one thing, profit is another and the return of profit is yet another. Do the powers that be in places like Beijing, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Hanoi, New Delhi and elsewhere have US investors’ best interests when at heart? That is a difficult question to answer in the affirmative. In this ...
The Campaign is Already Wearing Thin
January 24, 2024 20:59 - 23 minutes - 32.3 MBThe bickering, back-biting and name calling which we have come to expect from election cycles is already at a fever pitch. Although Donald Trump still has to get past Nikki Haley, the two political parties are wasting little time bad-mouthing each other. It is enough to make one tune down the volume or switch channels. How did we get to this point? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing political campaigns to determine if there are any generational difference...
Crypto for Grandma
January 11, 2024 16:28 - 24 minutes - 33.4 MBThis week, the SEC effectively approved Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency ETFs for retail investors. No longer will folks have to trade on some shadowy platform or even open up a Coinbase account. It is cryptocurrency for the masses, but is it a good idea? After all, can anyone effectively value, say, a Bitcoin? Is it really a currency? A method of exchange or store of value? Or is it a volatile asset class? If the latter, what happens when it becomes completely mainstream? When your grandmother can bu...
A Few Resolutions to Start the Year
January 04, 2024 21:38 - 20 minutes - 28.1 MBWhile a lot of people make resolutions to start the year, few of them actually see them through to fruition. With that in mind, what should the planet’s most powerful people resolve to do this upcoming year? What will they actually resolve? The two don’t have to be the same. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John try to solve the world’s problems by guessing the new year’s resolutions of the world’s biggest leaders. Do you agree?
A Look Into the Crystal Ball for 2024
December 27, 2023 17:53 - 26 minutes - 36.7 MBWhat will the stock market do next year? Will the economy go into recession? How many times will the Fed cut rates, if they do so at all? As always, there are so many questions leading into a new year. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John share their thoughts about what could be in store for 2024. Is it good news or bad? You will have to listen to find out.
The End of Higher Rates - For Now
December 14, 2023 20:29 - 21 minutes - 29.9 MBThis week, central banks across the world essentially said their collective fight against inflation was over. In the United States, the Fed’s own data suggested it would start cutting the overnight rate roughly 3 times in 2024. Couple that with Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments about inflation, and investors took it as the end of this tightening cycle. However, this begs the questions: 1) is inflation really dead, and; 2) did the Fed do the right thing? In this week’s Trading Perspecti...
College Football Tomfoolery?
December 06, 2023 20:42 - 23 minutes - 32.1 MBThis past weekend, the CFP Committee chose its Top 4 teams to participate for the national championship. But were they the best, let alone the most deserving teams? Is there any real difference between the best and the most deserving? Or did the committee simply make a business decision? After all, money talks, and it always has. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the upcoming college football playoffs, and ask the question: are the Top 4 teams participating or are t...
The Global Shift to the Right?
November 29, 2023 17:55 - 23 minutes - 31.6 MBAfter surprising right-wing victories in elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, pundits have noticed there seems to be a growing trend towards nationalism, especially in Europe. While some outlets blame record immigration levels for this change in sentiment, the causes could also be economic. After all, has globalism produced the economic benefits in Europe or South America that its supporters claimed it would? That is a good question. What if it is a combination of the two? After all, ...
Bringing AI Back to the Front Page
November 22, 2023 01:38 - 19 minutes - 27.4 MBThis past week, the board of directors at OpenAI abruptly terminated co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This came as a shock to just about everyone but the board itself. However, it reopened the conversation about AI and its potential future impact on, well, everything. That it has the potential to fundamentally change our lives and conduct business is without question. However, who will benefit the most? Who will adapt the quickest? Who won’t adapt at all? Are there any generational differences...
Is America's Influence Declining?
November 15, 2023 20:07 - 23 minutes - 32.7 MBDepending on to whom you are talking, America’s global influence is either plummeting or slowly decreasing. Regardless, it seems no one feels the US is in ascendency. How did this come about and what are the reasons? Further, what does it mean for the US economy, if anything at all? Does it matter if the US is no longer the world’s policeman, but is still a major economic force? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John welcome Sid...
When Will the Consumer Quit Complaining?
November 08, 2023 21:39 - 20 minutes - 28.3 MBAlthough analysts keep saying inflation is coming down, prices at the store certainly aren’t. This is the difference between relativity and absolutism. Although prices have been elevated for a while, consumers continue to have sticker shock. So, how much longer will it be before the average U.S. consumer accepts higher prices are here to stay and move on? While it be next year, 2025 or never? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss higher prices and when the U.S. consumer...
How Are We Going to Buy for Everything?
October 25, 2023 18:37 - 20 minutes - 28.6 MBAs everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn’t. At some point in the not so distant future, the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop reducing its balance she...
How Weight Loss Impacts the Economy
October 19, 2023 14:36 - 21 minutes - 29.3 MBRecently, consumers have been using drugs approved to treat diabetes to lose weight. Depending on the person, the results can be significant. Further, it seems people using these drugs for weight loss often change their consumption patterns, at least to some degree. While this is obvious great news for a country struggling with obesity, what does it mean to companies and economic sectors which depend on Americans being fat? There is real money at stake. In this week’s Trading Perspectives,...
Turmoil in the Middle East
October 12, 2023 17:26 - 23 minutes - 32.8 MBLast weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world’s leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren’t anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If so, what has caused it and what does it mean if the situation escalates? In this week’s Trading...
How Much Higher Will Rates Go?
October 05, 2023 14:54 - 23 minutes - 32.5 MBLong-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren’t buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is the current mess in Washington. So, just how much higher will rates go before people start gobbli...
Are EV Dreams a Nightmare?
September 27, 2023 19:04 - 24 minutes - 33.3 MBThis week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expanding its EV production without technical assistance from China? In this week’s Trading Perspecti...
How Many Strikes Are In An Out?
September 21, 2023 15:24 - 23 minutes - 32.4 MBThe division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss various strikes around the world, but focus on those cl...
Will Inflation Eat Your Wallet?
September 14, 2023 14:35 - 22 minutes - 31.2 MBRecent sharp increases in energy prices have caused pain at the pump and pushed the inflation gauges higher. Couple this with student loan repayments, and what, then, is the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping season? When things get tight, what gets the ax? Is it travel? The movies? Restaurants? Or is everyone different? Further, what impact would this have on overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Basically, how much will this recent uptick in inflation drive d...
Student Debt Payback Blowout!
September 06, 2023 17:57 - 22 minutes - 30.4 MBAfter years of pandemic-related moratoriums on the repayment of student loan debt, the clock has finally stopped ticking. Unless something dramatic happens, people will have to start paying back what they have borrowed. Have they budgeted for it? Not likely. If they haven’t, what expenditures get the ax? Essentially, what can younger people cut out of a monthly budget when there is a serious need for cash? In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam and John welcome another member of Generat...
COVID. Come Again?
August 30, 2023 16:15 - 24 minutes - 33.7 MBIt seems COVID is rearing its ugly head again. As a result, more and more people are wearing masks in public and consciously keeping their distance from others. It begs the question: what would the public’s response be to future mask mandates, economic shutdowns and shelter in place orders? Would we acquiesce as quickly as we did in 2020? Or will people push back on the government this time around? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the potential for a return of p...
Are High Interest Rates as Bad as Advertised?
August 23, 2023 15:48 - 22 minutes - 30.7 MBEveryone knows lower interest rates are supposed to stimulate economic growth. If that is the case, the inverse must also be true. However, is that really the truth? After all, the Japanese have had manufactured low interest rates for almost three decades, and where has the growth been? The same could be said for the Europeans over the last decade or so. Shoot, even the American economy seemed to be weaker than it should have been with artificially low rates. This begs the counterintuitive q...
Who is Going to Buy Our Debt?
August 16, 2023 19:19 - 22 minutes - 31.4 MBThe Chinese have been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve has stopped adding huge amounts to its balance sheet. However, Washington will still have to borrow trillions of dollars over the next decade. Will we be able to finance at 4% if the Chinese and the Fed are on the sideline? What will individual U.S. investors need to see before they go back to bonds? 5% 6% or higher? It seems higher interest rates are here to stay, but just how high is high? In t...
The Dog Days of Summer Have Finally Arrived
August 10, 2023 16:14 - 21 minutes - 29.8 MBAfter a positive July, the dog days of summer have shown up in August. The heat has been oppressive, Fitch downgraded U.S. Treasury debt, Moody’s downgraded the banks and the tech stocks have fallen apart. Is it time to worry? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, John and special guest Grace Schlenker discuss why things seem to be boiling over during the hottest time of the year.
They Downgraded the Nation's Debt. So What?
August 03, 2023 13:59 - 22 minutes - 31.5 MBThis week, the Fitch Rating organization downgraded U.S. Treasury debt from its highest rating of AAA to AA+. But what did it accomplish? Is the U.S. Treasury market no longer the world’s most liquid? Is the U.S. dollar no longer the world’s primary reserve currency? Did the U.S. financial system suddenly become more opaque? Is the U.S. Treasury in danger of defaulting on its debt? Or is the bigger issue Washington’s inefficiency in spending money that it will eventually have to repay? Furth...
Barbie Movie Magic?
July 26, 2023 18:29 - 24 minutes - 33.1 MBFor much of 2023, commentators have been wondering about the health of the domestic movie industry. Actor and screenwriter strikes aside, a lot of tried-and-true formulas weren’t performing as well as the studios wanted. Was this a change in consumer preferences? Had streaming killed the movies? Or were viewers just bored? Then came along a strange combination of the world’s most famous plastic doll and “the father of the atomic bomb.” Did Barbenheimer save Hollywood? In this week’s Tradin...
Beating the Heat
July 19, 2023 19:54 - 24 minutes - 33.5 MBAlthough the economic data has been a little cooler recently, the temperatures outside have been blisteringly hot. What are people doing to escape heat? Further, what can governments around the world do to combat what seems to be more volatile weather patterns? Can they do anything at all? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the current heatwave and how they are trying to stay cool. Is there something we all can be doing to reduce stress on the climate?
Where Did Our Trust Go?
July 12, 2023 20:23 - 24 minutes - 33.5 MBRecently, Gallup released the results of its annual survey tracking Americans’ faith in their public and private institutions. Not surprisingly, the results were pretty disappointing. It seems, we don’t place a lot of trust in much in 2023. However, this has been a trend going back decades. But where did our trust go and why? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss their own faith in various institutions. Are there any generational or gender differences? Further...
Did You Have a Meatless Holiday?
July 05, 2023 16:53 - 21 minutes - 29.3 MBConsidering all of the advancements in artificial animal protein products, are they logical substitutes to the real thing? After all, all of that soy and pea proteins have to come from somewhere. That doesn’t even include the palm and coconut oil many of these companies use. Further, are animals really as bad for the environment as many would lead you to believe? Then, (and finally) are American consumers ready to switch to meat grown in a lab? Is that sort of thing even kosher or halal? Let...
How Much Would You Pay to Explore the World?
June 28, 2023 18:18 - 22 minutes - 30.7 MBLast week, the terrible saga of the OceanGate Titan made global headlines. Will this put an end to commercial exploration or give it a spark? What’s more, who should pay for search and rescue missions when things go awry? Finally, is there any real difference between hubris and risk taking? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent disaster and what it would take for them to take such risks when exploring the world.
The High Cost of Hidden Fees
June 21, 2023 19:19 - 24 minutes - 33.2 MBIt seems there is always a ‘gotcha’ hidden fee whenever you purchase anything. From thinking you are getting a good deal to sticker shock, this has been a bane for consumers for years. A fee here, a fee there and you are in the poorhouse before you know it. How can companies get away with all of the hidden costs? Or is it the consumer’s responsibility to find out all of the costs before making their purchase? Finally, is it the government’s responsibility to get to the bottom of this? In t...
Are They Really Taking My Stove?
June 14, 2023 15:38 - 24 minutes - 33.3 MBRecently, the Administration has pushed for the eventual elimination of natural gas stoves. Intuitively, this could eventually entail hot water heaters, furnaces and other gas powered appliances or products. Is this feasible? Who will produce all of the necessary parts, wires and final products? How much additional electrical capacity will we need? Can the current grid even withstand a mandated uptick in demand for electricity? How do we get from here to there in an economically doable fashi...
The Vanishing Hourly Worker
June 07, 2023 17:08 - 23 minutes - 31.7 MBFrom Dothan, Alabama, to Edinburgh, Scotland, it seems good help is hard to find. Despite soft economic data, the labor markets remain surprisingly strong. This is especially true for hourly workers. Why are they in such short supply? Are there just not enough people to do the work? Or is there something else happening here? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss chronic labor shortages here at home as well as over in the UK. How can this be... with economic ac...