Podcast #46 - Model portfolio Q2 review

It’s time for the half-year review of our model portfolio, a collection of 15 stocks that we selected in January as our core investments for 2021. The sell-off in growth stocks earlier this year made for grim reading at the end of Q1, but many of these stocks have rebounded - ten of the stocks in the model portfolio are now up from our start date, with nine of them beating the market (S&P 500).

Unfortunately, a couple of big losers are dragging down the overall return. While it’s probably too early to declare that “growth is back!”, our portfolio performance at the end of Q2 is much closer to the benchmark of the S&P 500 index. In today's episode, we dig into some of the key stories and updates from the portfolio.

Shopify (SHOP) are showing their developers some love by forgoing commissions on the first $1 million of revenue, every year. Investors were not impressed with the news at first, but it appears that they have come around to Tobi Lutke and his team’s vision, and the stock is back to near all-time highs. Shopify are "arming the rebels" against the Amazonian Empire and this move is just the latest in their customer-centric growth strategy.

MercadoLibre (MELI) and Sea (SE) showed amazing growth in their respective businesses in their Q1 earnings releases, but the performance of their stock are markedly different. There’s been talk about Sea and MercadoLibre battling it out for their share in the Latin American e-commerce market, but at only around 5% market penetration, we think there’s is plenty of growth to capture, with room for both companies to prosper.

Teladoc Health’s (TDOC) share price has not recovered and it's the worst performer in the portfolio to date! Much of this is due to lacklustre customer growth projections for the coming year, with almost zero growth expected. What the market might not be fully accounting for is the forecast increase in revenues per customer, as customers with long-term health conditions form a lasting relationship with Teladoc. 

The biggest winner in the portfolio was Cloudflare (NET), a leader in edge computing. Edge computing brings online resources closer to the customer, lowering response times and improving customer experience. In the most recent quarter, Cloudflare announced a partnership with Nvidia to bring its AI tools to the edge.

The removal of third-party cookies from web browsers is playing havoc with online advertising businesses. However, Google delaying their plans gave programmatic ad companies like The Trade Desk (TTD) and our model portfolio pick, Magnite (MGNI) a reprieve as they work on replacement technologies for targeted ads. Investors are still cautious about the impacts of these changes, but in the long term, the removal of third-party cookies may help supply-side platforms (SSP) like Magnite as they have direct access to first-party data.

Interim results from a clinical trial from Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) showed strong evidence that CRISPR-based therapies can work inside the body and gave a boost to all other CRISPR companies including our model portfolio pick, Editas Medicine (EDIT).

The following companies are mentioned in this episode: SHOP, MELI, SE, TDOC, AMZN, NET, FSLY, MGNI, EDIT, NTLA, SQ, ISRG, GH, CRWD, TWLO, DOCU, FVRR, DIS, NVDA

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