87. Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request

87. Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request

Episode 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request.

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome into Episode 87 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. 

Today’s episode I am going to touch on some players in the news, answer some mailbag questions.

Before I get into it I want to remind you all that over on the RotoHeat YouTube Channel we are streaming 4 nights a week.  We are covering IDP on Monday, Dynasty on Tuesday, Redraft on Wednesday, and Devy on Thursday.  Coming soon we will add DFS on Friday’s.  I have the pleasure of joining Rob Silvers and Bryce Frazier on the Inferno Podcast, our Redraft steam on Tuesday’s.  Be sure to head over to YouTube and subscribe and click the notification bell so that you do not miss out on any of our great content.

I am currently 8 picks into my first venture into the world-famous Scott Fish Bowl.  I will say that the draft is more stressful than any other draft I have done. When you are trying to win a draft full of the industry’s top analysts, some celebrities and a bunch of hardcore degenerate fantasy managers that has a total of 1440 teams well it can be a little intimidating.  The fact that RotoHeat’s Rick Butts and Brad Menendez are also in the league adds a little spice as it would be nice to have bragging rights.

My team after 8 rounds consists of

I am picking out of the 11 hole and I started with Dak Prescott at 1.11 and followed it up with Kyler Murray at 2.02.  The league has some unique scoring settings and with the ability to start two QB’s each week I wanted to be set up at the position.

I followed the selection Zach Ertz at 3.11 even though I have been telling you all not to draft Zach Ertz and to wait on TE.  The league is TE premium with an additional .5 points per reception and first down.  This is a pick I wish I could have back, but it is what it is. 

At 4.02 I selected Chris Godwin and all of a sudden, I am in a full blown zero RB type of situation.  This is basically the reason I am sharing this draft with you all.  Zero RB is not recommended. 

As a result of the pressure to grab some friggin running backs, I went with Chris Carson at 5.11, David Johnson at 6.02 and James White at 7.11.  The backs all have upside, but they also have a floor that scares the hell out of me. 

My 8th pick was Michael Gallup, felt I needed to jump back to WR with a starting requirement of 3, and I like the idea of pairing Gallup with Dak Prescott. 

I have a long way to go as there are 22 rounds.  I know that nobody really cares what my Fish Bowl roster looks like, but I can tell you.  Running Backs fly off the board.  I strongly recommend a RB/RB start to your 1 QB league drafts this season, when you get into round 3 the backs that remain don’t match the value of round three and there are an absolute ton of wide receivers available here that you are going to want. Now I went QB early as this is super flex, and TE early due to premium.  Clearly knowing your league scoring and starting requirements are crucial to your overall success here.  So just a little Sully’s 2 Cents redraft strategy 101.  If you are in the fish bowl, shoot me your roster over on twitter, I am @rotoheatsully. 

Time to take a look at some news and notes from around the league;

NFL players still remain subject to fines for positive marijuana tests under the new CBA. 

Testing used to begin on April 20 (really), but now begins when players report to camp. “You must be prepared to drug test as soon as camp opens,” the NFLPA reminded its membership in a memo. “As in years past, testing is unannounced and will happen in groups. You won’t know the date of the test. You may be tested when you walk through the door, or you may be tested two weeks after camp begins.” Weed suspensions are a thing of the past, but escalating testing and fines are not.

Honestly, I have no idea why the league still tests for it at all.  The drug is becoming legal in more and more jurisdictions and quite frankly isn’t a performance enhancer.  The NFL needs to get over this and just move on. 

Raheem Mostert requested a trade from the 49ers.

It’s one of the only leverage points he has over the 49ers right now as he looks to increase his salary up from $3 million. Mostert was the most efficient back in San Francisco last season and ultimately took over playoff games during the 49ers’ Super Bowl run. His agent, Brett Tessler, notes that Mostert’s contract was negotiated when he was just a core special teamer, not when he was entrenched as the 49ers’ Week 1 projected starter.

A trade is possible, but unlikely. Mostert is seeking Tevin Coleman money ($4.5M) which in all reality is a pretty reasonable request.  If I am the Niners however I let him know that his deal will not be renegotiated,  Raheem Mostert has zero leverage, and if it were not for the Niners taking a shot on him he would be bagging groceries or driving for Uber.

Mostert is 28 years old which in RB years is like 40. He needs to zip it and play on his existing deal because he has no other option.  Now if Mostert is traded, Coleman’s average draft position of 115th and RB45 will climb dramatically.  Jerick McKinnon may have some value and don’t forget about Jeff Wilson especially in a best ball league, there will be goal line opportunities for Wilson. He will have some weeks where he is fantasy relevant.

The Titans are open to signing a new deal with franchise-tagged RB Derrick Henry prior to the July 15 deadline, but “no extension is on the verge of happening,” according to Titans Insider Terry McCormick.

As of now, Henry will be playing on the $10.278 million franchise tag after rushing for over 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. McCormick reports Titans GM Jon Robinson and Cap Specialist Vin Marino continue to discuss long-term possibilities with Henry. The Titan’s top back has already signed his tender, so he will be on the field in 2020 if an extension is agreed to or not. 

It was reported that Henry is seeking to be one of the leagues highest paid backs.  Simply put Tennessee is insane to extend Henry at the number he is making this year let alone more.  Do not pay your running backs big money people there is no reason too, regardless of the back unless your name in Christian McCaffery or Saquon Barkley.

And finally

49ers WR Jalen Hurd is expected to play the “big slot” role this season.

Per beat writer David Lombardi, the 49ers strive for “position-less” football, and Hurd might be the prime example. The former Tennessee Volunteer running back could handle a couple carries per game, catch passes over the middle of the field, or use his 6-foot-4 inch frame to block on the edge. If Hurd is the “big slot,” that makes Trent Taylor the “small slot.” Both are coming off injuries that forced them to miss the entire 2019 season.

The way I see it, Hurd’s value is tied to the health of Deebo Samuel.  If Samuel ends up missing significant time, I have interest in Hurd late in my drafts.  If he doesn’t, I want no part of Jalen Hurd.  The Niners will be run heavy, and when they go to the air its George Kittle’s offense followed by everyone else cannibalizing each other.  Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Taylor, Hurd and the running backs.  Jalen Hurd is an unknown and do not reach for him in your drafts.  Hurd has a WR92 ADP for a reason kids.

Mailbag time

First question is from Johnny Chhun Tang from the RotoHeat Redraft Community on Facebook

Will JK Dobbins be a factor this season?

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 28: J.K. Dobbins #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes carries the ball against the Clemson Tigers in the second half during the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on December 28, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request

The easy answer is yes.  JK Dobbins is as talented a RB in this year’s draft class and will see snaps and touches.  His ADP is currently RB38 and Mark Ingram is RB26.  This is about right IMO for Ingram and Dobbins even though I like him is a tad overpriced at RB38. 

I look for Dobbins like most rookies to start slow this season. As everyone knows this is a strange offseason and one that may not include any preseason games.  One thing that works in favor of Dobbins and all the backs in Baltimore is the Ravens lineup in 22 personal (2 running backs, 2 tight ends, 1 wide receiver) a league-high 16.9% of their snaps in 2019.  I like Dobbins as the back of the future in Baltimore but on 2020, he’s a flex play IMO, with the potential to start for your roster in the back half of the season.

Second question also from the RotoHeat Redraft Community on Facebook comes from Colin Fitzgerald

What 2019 breakout WR was a one hit wonder?

MIAMI, FL – NOVEMBER 03: DeVante Parker #11 of the Miami Dolphins runs up field after a catch during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on November 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images) 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request

This one for me is rather easy.  It is 5th year breakout WR DeVante Parker. 

Through four seasons, the highest Parker had finished in fantasy was WR49 in 2016. He had never played a full 16 games and had nine total TDs for his career.

In 2019, the team had basically no run game.  Ryan Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing for goodness sakes.  The team was also terrible.  In 2020, the Fish have added Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda, a massive upgrade.  They have had a nice offseason adding some O line help, improved their defense and added a potential start QB in Tua Tagovailoa. 

They also have Preston Williams healthy and Mike Gesicki has shown he can catch balls in this league.

Bottom line Miami is a much-improved football team.  A team that will run the ball much more in 2020.  Last year they were 7th in pass attempts and 32nd in rushing attempts with 349, 54 of which came from Fitzmagic.  The leading rusher in terms of attempts out of the backfield was Kalen Ballage with 74.  Jordan Howard will hit that number at some point is week 4.

This all adds up for Parker to shows us more of his first four seasons and a lot less than his 5th season.

Our third question comes from The RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Community on Facebook from Andy Peirson

The Buffalo Bills, in general, there whole offense is a ? For me ….i think it could be so good with Diggs in the mix and Allen’s 3rd year and I just think there team as a whole is headed in the right direction but a lot of people don’t seem to feel the same

MIAMI, FL – DECEMBER 02: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills leads the team on to the field prior to the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on December 2, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request

So Andy, I am taking this as a question of what do I think of the Bills offense. My answer is its ok.

I am not as high on Josh Allen as most but he is still in my top 12.  I see Allen rushing for less TD’s with a full season from Devin Singletary and the addition of Zach Moss.  Frank Gore was horrific down the stretch last season and the Bills have not had a goal line back in Allen’s tenure with the team.  Allen has a career completion percentage of 56.3, that is terrible.  Mitch Trubisky is at 63.4% as a comparison.  Allen can run and it has saved him fantasy wise.  1141 yards and 17 TD in two seasons.  I like him to improve in the passing game and regress on the ground.

Devin Singletary was impressive in spurts last season, but I am not really sure what we have here. He was over 5 yards per carry last season on 151 attempts and ran for 775 yards in 12 games. He can catch the ball and that holds his value in PPR.  He doesn’t appear overly durable and he had only 3 carries all season inside the ten ayrd line.

Zach Moss does little for me other than some potential TD upside as the goal line guy.  He is slow and uninspiring, sorry Anthony Leone you know I am right.

Diggs is a great addition but nothing amazing.  He is likely a mid WR2, and John Brown has relevance in the offense as well. 

Last season the Bills ranked 24th in total yards with 330.2/game.  26th in passing with 201.8/game and 8th in rushing yards with 128.4 a game.  Total points they ranked 23rd with 19.6 points a game. 

Bottom line they improve in 2020 but not by much.  I expect the passing yards and the points to elevate and the rushing likely stays near where it is.  The Bills have a great defense and they will win more than they will lose in 2020, and they may even win their division.  Make no mistake this team is defense first and run the ball.  Diggs helps the passing game but not enough to move the needle.

And out last question comes from twitter, from @dynastysam1473

Is it hard winning in fantasy when everyone knows how you value players and how you draft?

Well Sam, winning is hard in fantasy period.  You need a lot of things to go your way to win a ship, and dare I say luck might be the biggest one of all.  I do play in a lot of leagues mainly with guys I know so there is an element of knowing what I like and what I do.  The biggest disadvantage I feel I have is I want to contribute as much written content, live streams and this podcast as I can.  All the time I previously spent on my fantasy teams I out into this.  I want to win as much as I can trust me, and it certainly doesn’t happen often enough.  If I make 1 fantasy manager better as a result of my content then it is all worth it.

That’s going to do it for this episode.  Thank you for listening to episode 87 Mailbag Questions and the Raheem Mostert Trade Request.

If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Podbean, Spotify, Google Play, and now Player FM. 

In addition, you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football Community , and RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football Community on Facebook and I am @Sully in our Discord chat as well.

Don’t forget to tune in over on YouTube to the Fantasy Inferno Live Steam Wednesday Nights 9:30 EST with Rob Silvers, Bryce Frazier and myself.

I’ll be back next Friday with episode 87.  Until then, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers.

Take care.