147 – Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West

Sully continues his annual Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series with a look at the AFC West

2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 147 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West

Player I Am Buying

Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 76 WR32

Jerry Jeudy was a WR that I wanted a lot of shares of in 2020. In 2021 nothing has changed except my appetite to roster him has become even more elevated. Jerry Jeudy ranked sixth among wideouts with 1,529 air yards, sixth in receiving average with 16.5, and 19th with 5.46 yards after catch per reception as a rookie with rather horrific quarterback play. In year two I expect him to take the next step.

The haters will point to his 46% catch rate, his 3.3 receptions per game and his 14 drops. None of those stats concern me. Jeudy seeing 113 targets as a rookie is a good thing, I get he dropped 14 passes but Tyreek Hill dropped 11, Alvin Kamara 10, and DK Metcalf 9. Funny we don’t see folks fading them. Jeudy is an elite route runner that will continue to get open, Courtland Sutton is back to take some attention off Jeudy, and teh QB in Denver will be much better than a season ago. In the sixth round I love the value that Jerry Jeudy is, and I will be buying.

Player I Am Selling

Javonte Williams – Overall ADP 68 RB28

Javonte Williams is likely going to be among the most popular rookies taken in Fantasy drafts with Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. I have no problem with drafting Williams, in fact he is one of the rookies that I would like to roster in redraft this season. My concern is the price not the player.

Williams scored 19 touchdowns and ran for over 1,400 total yards in a split backfield last season at North Carolina. That experience sharing touches will help him deal with Melvin Gordon in 2021. The split however I believe with favor Gordon, especially early in the season. If you draft Williams, you’re hoping, that he takes over the touches in this backfield and that Gordon fades sooner than later. Williams has the higher upside but also brings with him, a lower floor. The recent injury to Melvin Gordon, might help Williams but it will also lead to an elevated ADP. I am happy to select Williams in the mid to late six round. The problem is he will be long gone by then. That is a situation I am comfortable with and I will sell him at his current round five value.

Take the Flyer

Drew Lock – Overall ADP 298 QB35

I like Drew Lock much more than others. Is he a week in week out fantasy starter in a twelve team league, no he is not. He is also not a 35th ranked QB. Lock played in 5 games as a rookie, completed 64% of his passes for 1020 yards 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not world beating numbers but over 16 games that is a pace of 3264 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTS. His 16 games pace was 199 points and a QB26 finish.

In 2020 he finished as QB24 averaging 15.10 per game nearly the same as his rookie season. After being cleared from Covid-19 he started weeks 13-27 and was QB17 averaging 17.97 points per game. He gets Courtland Sutton back to go along with Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, and Javonte Williams. Add to that a full offseason with Pat Shurmur who led Sam Bradford and Case Keenum to their best seasons in the NFL. He will win the job and he will be better than QB35, that is near laughable. Take the flyer.

Kansas City Chiefs

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West

Player I Am Buying

Travis Kelce – Overall ADP 8 TE1

When it comes to Travis Kelce, it’s hard not to notice his consistency. Since missing his 2013 rookie season with a knee injury, Kelce has finished as a top-12 TE every season. In those seven seasons he has averaged 236.94 PPR points. He has finished as the TE1 the past five seasons and has averaged 263.64 points a season. Last season at the age of 31 he had the best season of his career.

Now if you are concerned about taking a tight end in the first round, I hear ya. I really do. You are passing up on a potential top-8 running back, or perhaps a top-5 WR. The good news is Travis Kelce is a top-5 WR. During his 5 years as TE1 his finishes as a WR were 12th,10th,9th, 9th, and 4th. Kelce is a no-brainer in the back-half of Round 1 in PPR formats if you’re looking for a proven, safe, consistent player, especially one at a tough-to-fill position.

Player I Am Selling

Patrick Mahomes – Overall ADP 19 QB1

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. He may very well be the best fantasy QB as well. In his first full season as a starter in 2018, he had a monster season and finished as the QB1 with 417.08 points (63.16 points clear of QB2). In 2019 he was QB8, and last season he was QB4.

I have Mahomes ranked as my QB1, clearly I believe in the talent. The Chiefs bolstered their offensive line this offseason, likely making Mahomes even more dangerous. What I can’t get behind in the second round draft cost to acquire him. I have Josh Allen ranked second and his ADP is currently 32nd overall (which is also to high for me). If I am grabbing Mahomes at 19, I could instead grab a WR like Calvin Ridley and simply wait on QB. If I take Allen I could start with Ridley in round two and grab Allen in round three. The reality is I’ll grab Ridley who was WR1 overall upside and grab a QB like Ryan Tannehill in the 7th, or Stafford in the 8th. I am even comfortable waiting until round 10 for Baker Mayfield. The comparative cost of rostering Mahomes is not worth it, no matter how goods he is in my opinion.

Take the Flyer

Demarcus Robinson – Overall ADP 282 WR88

Demarcus Robinson has a shot to be the Chiefs’ No. 2 wideout. Now he is going to have to earn the role over Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle. Robinson averaged 3.7 targets per game last year, and that is an average that I can see increasing by 3-5 targets a game in 2021. He would have to blow away his competition in the preseason, then earn about double the targets he saw last season for him to come close to being useful in Fantasy, but hey any piece of the Chiefs offense that has the upside of the No.2 WR is worth the flyer.

Los Angeles Chargers

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West

Two Player I Am Buying

Mike Williams – Overall ADP 128 WR49

I do not like Mike Williams if I am being honest, but like I said at the top, buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player. Williams has always been a potential-laden receiver, but he’s rarely delivered. Through four seasons, he’s topped 100 yards in a game four times, amassed 80 yards nine times and scored 17 times in 56 games. His best fantasy season was his 180.2 PPR point WR32 2018 campaign.

Perhaps it’ll take a contract year in 2021 for Williams to finally break through. New Chargers OC Joe Lombardi, who served as the Saints’ QB coach and carries over his version of New Orleans’ passing game, suggested Williams will fill the “X” WR role. This is the same position in which Michael Thomas put up record-setting stats. to be clear I am not comparing Williams to Thomas, that is not the case. I am simply stating that this role will likely lead to opportunity. He has an above average QB, and the defense needs to key on Keenan Allen before worrying about Mike Williams. I don’t know how good he will be but I am betting its much better than WR49.

Player I Am Selling

Jared Cook – Overall ADP 166 TE18

From one Charger I don’t like to another, Jared Cook. Cook signed with the Chargers to fill the void created when Hunter Henry departed for New England. Selling Cook isn’t overly obvious but when looking at the Chargers current ADP, he was the obvious choice. I am not selling Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, or Justin Herbert. As a result Jared Cook it is.

Cook was extremely TD dependent last season in New Orleans, he scored seven times which was 33% of his total fantasy production. His age concerns me as does his recent injury history as well. If Cook stays healthy and stays on teh field, he may make me look foolish this year as QB Justin Herbert did target the TE 21.4% of the time a season ago. I’m betting on that having more to do with Hunter Henry than anything else. Cook will be a TE I stream this season, but he won’t be a TE I am drafting.

Take the Flyer

Donald Parham Jr. – Overall ADP 401 TE51

Finally a Charger I do like, former XFL darling Donald Parham Jr. Parham scored on 30% of his receptions in 2020, but only played 221 of a possible 1,127 snaps, likely leading to his near nonexistent ADP of 401.

Jared Cook as noted is the veteran addition to the Charger’s tight-end room, further keeping Parham off the field. Parham standout shouldn’t be a consideration in Fantasy until his playing time rises and his targets become consistent. I am betting that, that situation occurs this season in LA and I am taking the flyer as a result.

Las Vegas Raiders

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West

Player I Am Buying

Darren Waller – Overall ADP22 TE2

Darren Waller is finally practicing with the Las Vegas Raiders this preseason. The ankle injury that has kept him out until now was concerning, and would have impacted my desire to buy if it were considered a serious injury. Darren Waller is a top-3 TE, there is little doubt about that if he is healthy for the duration of 2021.

There are questions about when to draft him and whether or not to do so over George Kittle. My response to those questions is back of round two and yes, take Waller over Kittle. Waller has scored at least 10 PPR points in 22 of his past 32 games and at least 15 PPR points in 10 of his past 16. He is a target machine, with 262 of them the past two seasons, an average of 8 a game. In 2020, Waller averaged 9 a game and saw 28% of QBs Derek Carr’s targets. I don’t see any reason that should change in 2021, and as a result I am buying here.

Player I Am Selling

Josh Jacobs – Overall ADP 37 RB20

Josh Jacobs is a good running back. He has totaled 2,215 yards and 19 touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. The past twelve months however haven’t been overly great for Jacobs. He finished 14th among rushers in PPR points per game at 14.3, but actually scored at least that many points just five times in 15 games. His lack of pass catching really impacts him in PPR formats.

In addition to the lack of targets, the Raiders let three capable offensive linemen go for salary cap reasons, only to spent decent salary-cap space on RB Kenyan Drake. He figures to keep Jacobs off the field in most passing situations and has the potential to replace Jacobs in goal-to-go opportunities. Drake didn’t have the greatest 2020 season but he did score on 8 of 19 rushes from inside the five yard line. Round 4 is the place to target Josh Jacobs in PPR formats, not the start of round three. As a result he is a sell for me here.

Take the Flyer

Henry Ruggs III – Overall ADP 118 WR48

There was once a time when the third year was considered the breakout year for wide receivers. The talent at the position in recent years has pushed that up to year two and in a few cases even year one. When we look at all the second year wide receivers in 2021, Henry Ruggs can easily be overlooked when searching for breakouts. A disappointing rookie year saw Ruggs get just 43 targets in 13 games, catching (26) 60.5% of them for 452 yards and 2 scores. WR94 is typically not what we expect from 1st round drafted players.

Realistically, Ruggs needs expansive target growth to even have a chance to sniff Fantasy lineups in 2021. Replacing Nelson Agholor with John Brown sure won’t help that cause. It’s going to take a big preseason for Fantasy managers to buy into Ruggs as a breakout receiver. Until then, he’s a dart throw. At pick 118 I am willing to take a flyer on Henry Ruggs, I believe he has the upside to exceed his WR48 ADP.

Thank you for listening to episode 147 – 2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West

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