Israeli-Palestine Conflict 13. The End of the Conflict. The Black Swan Scenario

The end of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict:  A Black Swan Scenario 

You will have to believe me when I tell you that one morning we woke up and Soviet Union was gone.  After decades of Cold War, and dire predictions that it would go up in flames some day, it ended without a shot being fired.  All across the country professors were trying to recall their lectures from just the semester before.  We were SO wrong. None of us saw this coming. 

When I started teaching back in the 1970s, I told students that there were three conflicts that would go on forever.  One was Northern Ireland.  The population was 60% protestant and 40% Catholic.  There was no solution.  Another was the situation in South Africa where a white minority held onto power and wealth.  They were never going to give up their control of the country.  The third was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Back then, about 85% of the population of Israel was Jewish, 15% Palestinian.  (Today within Israel itself, the Jewish population is 78%.  We will not be discussing that change in this talk but it is significant).  

But look at those three examples I just gave.  I was totally wrong on two of them.  The situation in Northern Ireland was resolved in 1998 by a negotiated settlement (after a lot of bloodshed, to be sure).  The situation in South Africa was resolved by the white government releasing Nelson Mandela and allowing a majority rule election that brought him to power. 

Is it possible that the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict could be resolved short of a catastrophe?  

I am going to discuss four scenarios that work elsewhere but will not work here.  Those scenarios are explained much more fully in my Land Day Talk that is available on Deep Blue under the title “Strategic Options in the Israeli-Palestinian Conclict.”  I will give you a five-minute scenario here, but the full text is much richer. 

As I mentioned before, you might go to the internet and download a map of the West Bank with Areas A and B and C outlined.  A and B are where Palestinians live.  C is where most of the Jewish settlements are.  When I say the Israelis are talking of annexing the West Bank, it is Area C that they mean.  (Although sometimes they talk about annexing the whole thing).  They would then give the rest to Jordan (although it is not clear Jordan would want to be a party to such an unstable arrangement). 

I discuss near the end of the talk the difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews.  Today the balance of those two groups is about 48-48.  But what if the Ashkenazim began to leave and the balance shifted to 60-40 in favor of the Sephardic Jews?  What would that mean?  

The professor I mentioned is Ian Lustick.  He is very good.