Star Spangled Gamblers
252 episodes - Afar - Latest episode: 19 days ago - ★★★★★ - 54 ratingsTwo of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
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Episodes
UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
July 03, 2024 09:12 - 45 minutes - 62.2 MBPart I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps 0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farag...
Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
July 01, 2024 07:15 - 46 minutes - 42.7 MBPart I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importan...
Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
June 25, 2024 22:03 - 45 minutes - 41.9 MBPart I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09:...
Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
June 17, 2024 07:22 - 42 minutes - 38.7 MB3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition. Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community 0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment ...
How Trump Will Select His VP
June 06, 2024 08:57 - 41 minutes - 38.1 MBPratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG...
CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
June 03, 2024 03:07 - 49 minutes - 45.7 MBThe CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam's statement 11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts 14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin J...
Rishi Sunak's Political Future
May 20, 2024 02:50 - 45 minutes - 41.7 MBLondon-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 4...
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
May 09, 2024 06:00 - 50 minutes - 45.9 MBEvery year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will...
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
April 15, 2024 19:04 - 46 minutes - 42.9 MBHemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift...
Stalemate in Ukraine
March 22, 2024 05:36 - 39 minutes - 36.3 MBDoug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia https://youtu.be/BZ0BbIbMcYg?si=Hr-jrGmlmi3LX9O2 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest https://youtu.be/Yrh...
The Emerging Forecasting Community
March 06, 2024 00:41 - 41 minutes - 38.1 MBSaul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to ad...
The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
February 16, 2024 03:49 - 40 minutes - 37.1 MBPart 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the ...
How Bad Is Trump's Health?
February 08, 2024 18:58 - 46 minutes - 42.9 MBDr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart...
Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
January 10, 2024 18:00 - 38 minutes - 71.1 MBWhile Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment 1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Polit...
AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
January 08, 2024 16:39 - 44 minutes - 82.5 MBPrediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry 6:18: AI and effective altruism 13:25: What exactly ...
Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
December 31, 2023 08:08 - 41 minutes - 77.1 MBFour Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets Timestamps 5:08: Interview with Lucas begins 6:39: Biden's cognitive decline 8:49: Biden's physical health 10:20: ...
Can DeSantis Make a Comeback?
December 22, 2023 01:27 - 47 minutes - 65.1 MBThree-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes. Timestamps 4:30: Inter...
A Mitch McConnell Health Cover-up?
December 01, 2023 15:46 - 41 minutes - 57.8 MBThree-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 5:01: Interview with Lucas b...
Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
November 18, 2023 17:14 - 43 minutes - 60.1 MBColombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39:...
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
November 14, 2023 17:54 - 40 minutes - 37.3 MBEurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan 12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia 15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is ser...
Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
November 07, 2023 06:49 - 41 minutes - 56.8 MBOn the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market pric...
A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
October 30, 2023 22:37 - 39 minutes - 36.2 MB3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps 4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins 4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers ...
Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
October 28, 2023 15:44 - 43 minutes - 39.4 MBAfter another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42...
Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
October 21, 2023 22:45 - 42 minutes - 38.6 MBAfter listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book Th...
Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses
October 08, 2023 22:31 - 40 minutes - 75 MBBen Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot cand...
Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
September 15, 2023 17:09 - 50 minutes - 116 MBRule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forec...
How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
September 07, 2023 01:25 - 41 minutes - 94.3 MBIntro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets 1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest ...
Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
August 31, 2023 01:24 - 46 minutes - 106 MBIntro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik ...
Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?
August 27, 2023 10:13 - 43 minutes - 99.8 MBIntro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump ...
The Bull Case for Ron DeSantis
August 19, 2023 21:46 - 42 minutes - 97.9 MBLongtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White House intern 12:13: Why DeSantis prices have dropped 14:24: Why DeSantis remains the strongest candidate after Trump 24:19: Trump's odds ...
PredictIt's Big Win at the Fifth Circuit
August 11, 2023 03:33 - 37 minutes - 86.9 MBMick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets. 4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling 14:51: CFTC attorneys and their legal strategy against PredictIt 27:19: PredictIt hiring for a DCM 31:21: New markets at PredictIt? 34:20: SSG websi...
CFTC as "Election Cop"; Side bets on DeSantis county wins; Kalshi's role in "killing" PredictIt/Polymarket; mailbag on Kalshi's debt ceiling market
August 02, 2023 15:52 - 44 minutes - 102 MBPart I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop." Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or Polymarket and how the FOIA process works at the CFTC Part IV (40:53): Mailbag on Kalshi's recent debt ceiling market
How Bad Will It Get for Ron DeSantis?
July 31, 2023 16:03 - 50 minutes - 115 MBGaeten Dugas, Iabvek, and Pratik Chougule debate and place side bets on the question of when Ron DeSantis drop out of the race. In part II, Pratik addresses a mailbag question on the question of whether prediction markets and political gamblers have failed to disrupt the political discourse. Timestamps: 5:25: PredictIt's victory at the Fifth Circuit 7:12: DeSantis's political future 41:47: Mailbag on prediction market traders who can't explain politics
Does Political Betting Threaten Democracy? Lessons from the UK
July 15, 2023 03:50 - 43 minutes - 78.7 MBThe CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts has shown that policymakers in America have deep concerns about risk political betting poses to democracy. UK-based political gambler and election compliance specialist Adrian Smith joins the show to discuss what lessons can be drawn from Britain's longstanding, liberal regulations on political betting. In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel Nick Ottens returns to the show to discuss why Hungary won't leave the European Union. Timestamps: 0:00:...
Another CFTC Review of Kalshi's Election Markets
July 06, 2023 16:35 - 1 hour - 143 MBMick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into Kalshi's latest attempt at the CFTC to offer election markets. StarSpangledGamblers.com Twitter: @ssgamblers
Trump Nicknames for DeSantis
June 30, 2023 00:11 - 43 minutes - 39.6 MBWineMom, Gaeten, and Title Belt Champ The Winner discuss: — Dating advice for political gamblers — Trump's nicknames for DeSantis — When Trump will show up to a Republican debate and who he will attack
Will Trump Show Up to the First Debate? + New Markets on PredictIt and the Future of the European Union
June 22, 2023 20:14 - 52 minutes - 120 MB— Gaeten Dugas and Pratik Chougule debate their side bet on whether Trump will show up to the first Republican debate in August — Abhi and Pratik discuss whether PredictIt will offer new markets and how to trade on this question on Insight Prediction — Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens explains how countries can leave the European Union and why the odds of Italy and Poland exiting are very low
Odds of Trump Leaving the Race + Spain Prime Minister Elections
June 14, 2023 01:51 - 53 minutes - 122 MBIn part 1, Pratik Chougule and Jason Pipkin discuss the odds that Trump will stop running for the Republican nomination for president before the South Carolina primaries. In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens does a deep dive into Spain's July elections and whether Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez can survive as prime minister. Nick and Pratik discuss the odds on BetOnlineAg's next leader out market.
DeSantis's Weirdness and Why He Is Overpriced
June 10, 2023 18:06 - 53 minutes - 122 MBPratik Chougule, TheWinner, and MagaVacuum discuss: — Ron DeSantis's weird behavior, why he's overpriced in the betting markets, and how long to hold short shares. — The right price to pay for Tim Scott and other longshot candidates for the Republican nomination. — Side bets and the future of the political gambling community.
Bet Against Senator Feinstein Resigning
June 10, 2023 04:52 - 44 minutes - 102 MB— Pratik Chougule on market manipulation and pump-and-dump schemes in political prediction markets — Gaeten Dugas on why he's betting against California Senator Dianne Feinstein resigning this year — Nic Horton assesses the likelihood of an Arkansan vice presidential nominee, discussing the odds on former Governor Asa Hutchinson, Senator Tom Cotton, and the current Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders — Abhi (@aenews_pi) explains how to profit in Insight Prediction's Russia-Ukraine war m...
Odds of Russia Nuking Ukraine
May 26, 2023 23:00 - 48 minutes - 66.4 MBNaman (@nmehndir) and Abhi (@aenews_PI) discuss their side bets on the odds of Russia nuking Ukraine by the end of June as well as the odds of a nuclear explosion by the end of the year. Both debate Pratik on the likelihood of an offensive nuclear war by 2050.
The Right's Problems with Educated Voters
May 24, 2023 19:08 - 51 minutes - 71.2 MB— Pratik Chougule analyzes Victoria University's response to the CFTC. — Gaeten Dugas explains why he's making the largest bet of his career on George Santos not resigning from Congress. — Zeus O'Dea considers why the right is losing educated voters across the western world and whether this reality is being priced in on betting markets.
Fox News After Tucker Carlson
May 05, 2023 02:12 - 1 hour - 96 MBPratik Chougule provides an update on the ongoing lawsuit between the CFTC and PredictIt now that the Fifth Circuit has rejected the CFTC's motion to dismiss the case and Victoria University has responded to the agency's questions. Zoltar and Fred Norris debate their side bet on whether Fox News will be able to maintain its primetime ratings after Tucker Carlson's departure. StarSpangledGamblers.com
Biden’s Cognitive Decline: What Computer Vision Is Telling Us
May 02, 2023 19:06 - 51 minutes - 70.8 MBJoe Biden announced his campaign for re-election, but the markets still give him less than an 80% chance of securing the Democratic nomination for president. Perhaps foremost among trader concerns are questions about Biden's health. To investigate the issue, Tessa Barton, a computational photographer, AI Research Scientist, and political gambler, has compiled a video database of Biden. Tessa comes on the show to explain what computer vision tells us about Biden's cognitive decline and d...
The Case Against Asa Hutchinson Lottos + Jeremy Corbyn's Potential Comeback
April 24, 2023 15:28 - 50 minutes - 69.3 MBAs part of our continuing coverage of longshot Republican presidential candidates, Arkansas politics expert Nic Horton joins the show to discuss Asa Hutchinson's presidential bid. Nic explains why Hutchinson probably isn't going to be the longshot that breaks out. In part 2, professional gambler Zeus O'Dea discusses the possibility of a Jeremy Corbyn comeback in the UK and what it means for the future of left-wing politics in the west. Zeus has a side bet with Paul Krishnamurty on the iss...
Argentina's Upcoming Presidential Elections
April 20, 2023 16:24 - 52 minutes - 71.5 MBArgentina's upcoming presidential elections are looking like a volatile and uncertain contest between a number of colorful candidates. Among others: an incumbent with a track record of racist comments overseeing 100%+ inflation, a Harvard Business School grad, and an anarcho-capitalist tantra instructor. Latin America based financial analyst Ian Bezek returns to the show to assess the odds on Smarkets and how you should trade in the run-up to primaries in August and the general election i...
2024 Republican Longshots for President + Debt Ceiling Negotiations
April 11, 2023 04:27 - 42 minutes - 57.9 MB— Jason Pipkin and Pratik Chougule discuss which longshots for the Republican nomination for president are worth buying — Zubby Badger assesses when Congress and the Biden administration are likely to reach a debt ceiling deal — Casino.org reporter Steve Bittenbender predicts that political gambling deregulation might not happen until the 2028 elections — Zoltar "retires" from political gambling
How to Bet on the Trump Indictment Fallout + Julie Su's confirmation problems
April 07, 2023 18:06 - 52 minutes - 71.6 MB— Jason Pipkin on how to bet on the fallout from Trump's New York indictment — Zubby Badger on the future of Kalshi, why Julie Su's nomination for Secretary of Labor is in trouble, and how to make money from confirmation markets. — Gaeten Dugas and Zoltar wrap up Golden Modelos coverage with an award for 2022 Trader of the Year
The Bull Case for Vivek Ramaswamy
April 03, 2023 02:45 - 47 minutes - 65.1 MBEli Braden and Pratik do a deep dive on Republican candidate for president Vivek Ramaswamy. They discuss how to weigh his odds as a prospective nominee and his future in conservative politics.
How to Crack Foreign Elections: Traders weigh in on elections in Nigeria, Turkey, and Greece
March 25, 2023 21:06 - 43 minutes - 59.7 MBElections in countries outside the United States provide some of the most lucrative opportunities in political gambling. The fact that traders know little about these countries and information is hard to track down creates market distortions that saavy traders know how to exploit. In this episode, Pratik interviews three traders—Naman Mehndiratta, Jay Yu, and Paul Krishnamurty—who have made money on recent elections in Nigeria, Hungary, and elsewhere and have advice on how to apply thei...