Mantic Monday 10/17/22

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

English - October 20, 2022 04:05 - 22 minutes - 31.2 MB - ★★★★★ - 63 ratings
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Previous Episode: Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley

Next Episode: Another Bay Area House Party

What do Sam Altman, Matt Bruenig, and the Sacramento Kings have in common? -- Are the polls wrong? -- CFTC vs. Everybody

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-101722

Midterm Examination

Polls this year look bad for Senate Republicans. Pollsters’ simulations give them a 22% chance (Economist), 34% chance (538), or 37% chance (RaceToTheWH) of taking power. Even Mitch McConnell has admitted he has only “a 50-50 proposition” of winning.

But polls did pretty badly last election. ”Least accurate in 40 years”, said Politico. On average they overestimated Biden’s support by four points, maybe because Republicans distrust pollsters and refuse to answer their questions. Might the same thing be happening this year? If so, does it give Republicans reason for optimism?

Prediction markets say . . . kind of!