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Mr Liu, however, advised resisting the temptation of diplomatic overextension and unnecessary military engagements during a crisis. He attributed the global dominance of the United States following the Second World War to its preceding decades of isolationism.


For all its recent unshakable rule, China's history over the past century has been one of economic crises that brought the country to the political brink. During the Great Depression, an impoverished Japan invaded resource-rich Manchuria, sparking two decades of bloodshed and economic devastation in China.


The Chinese Communist Party faced its most severe political crisis in 1989, when tens of thousands of students and workers flooded Beijing's Tiananmen Square. While largely remembered as a pro-democracy movement, Mr von Glahn, the economic historian, says the demonstrations were more about economic grievances than anything else.


Deng Xiaoping, China's paramount leader at the time, gave the fateful order to stamp out the protests with deadly force, but acceded to public demands for faster economic reforms. This has been the deal that Beijing has offered ever since: economic growth in exchange for political quiescence.


Mr Liu illustrated his 2013 report with a series of charts that showed how the global power structure shifted following economic crises. The first showed the United States dominating the global economy after the Great Depression. The second showed emerging economies gaining pace after the 2008 crash.