Episode Harry Watson (443): Tavares Hits 1000pts. Over and Under Achievers. TOTW Tampa Bay Lightning

John Tavares hits 1000 points vs the Islanders. After 30 games, what teams are overachieving and which are underachieving? We do a bit of a statistical evaluation to predict the rest of the season.  Team of the Week is the Tampa Bay Lightning.    Listen Here:  iTunes  Google Play  Stitcher  Direct MP3   iHeart Radio

 

Title Player: Harry Watson - connect to John Tavares

News:

1. Tavares gets 1000th pt vs Islanders

Leafs continue to go to OT - 27 GP - 15-6-6 / 13 OT games - 7-6   

2nd in division despite injuries

Matthews at 23 G - on pace for 70G

2. Kyle Connor out 6-8 weeks - no suspension for Strome?

https://youtu.be/TPZow5phhEA?feature=shared

3. 2 investigations into Wild front office

AGM Chris O’Hearn fired or “agreed to part ways”

Was Guerin’s right hand man

Something is afoot but everyone is very quiet

4. Rob Ray takes puck to face between the benches -

https://youtu.be/E3z40vmKm5s?feature=shared

5. Oilers finally lose a game - need help for Skinner

Outshot Lighting 57-24 and lost 7-4 

Lost 5-1 to Panthers

6. All Star Game - back to skills

8 skills - 12 players compete for $1MM prize

Guess the 5th

Who is for real and who is not?

Method - xGF% - GF% - per Naturalstattrick.com at 5v5

Top 5 Pretenders

Vancouver - 48.7-61.2 Winnipeg - 49.6 - 59.4 Detroit - 46.8-55.8 Boston - 50.1-56.9 Arizona - 47.2-51.8

Top 5 Underachievers - xGF%-GF% -

Oilers - 58.0 - 47.4 New Jersey 53.3-46.09 Calgary - 51.9 - 45.5 Carolina - 55.7-50.4 Seattle - 51.3-47.1

** San Jose and Anaheim have large difference but xGF is still well below 50% so wouldn’t expect much improvement

Team of the Week

Tampa Bay - xGF% 48.98 - 44.78

Should expect some improvement, but not good enough

SF% 48.37 (21) GF% 44.78% (29) xGF% 48.97 (19)  SV% 90.24 (26) SH% 8.45 (15)

Vasilevskiy .902 after injury - expect that to improve

Kucherov - 50pts, 1st in league

Depth?

Hagel-Point-Kucherov - most TOI - dominant stats 62% GF

Anyone plays with Kucherov - stats are over 50%

Without, almost everyone below.

BucPower - turnovers like crazy - via  Statmuse.com TBL are 9th in league in GVA with 250

League leaders- CHI, MTL, EDM, NSH, TOR

Kucherov leads league with 41.  (Draisaitl next with 37)

D Pairs

Hedman / Perbix - 231:58 - xGF 41% GF% 52

Cernak / Sergachaev - 218:15 - xGF 47.9% GF% 42

Raddysh / Sergachaev - 217:36 xGF 55.6 GF 20%

Of all regular 6 D, Hedman is only one with +50% GF

Summary - I think depth is the story. Kucherov is pushing the river but supporting cast is weak

Need Vasilievskiy to save them

Hot / Not

Atlantic - TOR 5-1-4 / OTT 3-7-0  - 4 teams with 5 wins

Metro - NYI 6-1-3 / CBJ 4-5-1 - (NJD 7-3-0 )

Centroal - NSH 7-3-0 / CHI 3-6-1 -

Pacific - EDM 8-2-0 / ANA 1-9-0  - (Van 7-3-0, SJS 6-3-1)

Crazy Stat

DOPeS - Perron 6 games suspension for cross checking Zub

NHLPA Appealing  - will they go to an arbitrator?

Gudbranson 1 Game -https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/player-safety/erik-gudbranson-suspended-one-game-for-actions-in-blue-jackets-game

Should hit by cousens on Gudbranson have been a suspension?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfShpOFYqZs

Pastrnak kicked out of game vs Rangers for similar hit