Saxo Market Call
1,110 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago - ★★★★★ - 101 ratingsThe Saxo strategy team delivers insights and opinions about financial markets three times a week.
Monday’s episode will focus on the events that have unfolded in the past week and what you should pay attention to in the coming week.
Tuesday’s episode will focus on equities both in terms of performance and other relevant developments.
Thursday’s episode will focus more narrowly on a specific topic, which can be everything from earning seasons, to yield curves and oil prices.
The podcast will feature a wide array of Saxo’s financial experts.
Homepage Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Episodes
Theme: How geopolitical uncertainty affects bond and commodities
April 18, 2024 03:00 - 20 minutes - 14.5 MBIn today's thematic episode, Søren Otto is joined by no less than two experts, as Althea Spinozzi and Ole S. Hansen both join in the studio. The three discuss how the growing geopolitical uncertainty affect fixed income and commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities: Are earnings overshadowed by geopolitics?
April 16, 2024 11:51 - 23 minutes - 16.7 MBIn today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They talk about the latest geopolitical developments and discuss whether that or the earnings season will drive equity markets in the near future. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Special episode: Market reactions to Iran-Israel escalation
April 15, 2024 13:27 - 6 minutes - 4.72 MBThis is a special episode that we've decided to put out to provide you with our immediate takes on the market reactions following the Iran attack on Israel over the weekend. The episode features Ole S. Hansen, with Søren Otto as the host. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro: Something's brewing in China
April 15, 2024 03:00 - 15 minutes - 11.5 MBIn today's episode, macro is in focus as Peter Garnry is standing in for Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host. Peter and Søren discuss last week's US CPI and ECB meeting and zero in on the Chinese import and export numbers. They also talk about the upcoming EU and UK inflation figures. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Theme: Quarterly Outlook special
April 11, 2024 07:11 - 33 minutes - 23.7 MBIn today's thematic episode, we talk about the Quarter Outlook, which was released last week. Each SaxoStrat explains his or her take and adds a bit of flavour to it. This means that this episode features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen, Althea Spinozzi and Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities: What you need to know as the earnings season kicks off
April 09, 2024 12:00 - 18 minutes - 14 MBIn today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They talk about the earnings season, which is beginning this week. Per usual, it is the financial companies in the US that kick things off. Garnry gives his take on, what the expectations are and what to pay attention to. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro and FX: NFP, CPI, ECB and Japan
April 08, 2024 08:05 - 20 minutes - 14 MBIn today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as the host. They discuss the nonfarm payroll from Friday, the upcoming CPI number in the US. They also talk about the ECB meeting and the momentum in Japanese market. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities and macro: Tesla, Quarterly Outlook and inflation
April 03, 2024 13:23 - 20 minutes - 15.9 MBIn today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss Tesla's recent earnings and look at the regional equity performance. They also discuss our recently published Quarterly Outlook. Finally, they talk about the biggest macro events in the near past. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Theme: Central bank meeting impact on fixed income
March 26, 2024 11:21 - 28 minutes - 18.7 MBIn today's episode, Saxo's Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Althea Spinozzi, discusses how last week's many central bank meetings have impacted the fixed income markets with a special focus on the US, UK, Switzerland and Japan. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro & FX: Swiss central bank surprises; PCE and China
March 25, 2024 08:48 - 25 minutes - 16.9 MBIn today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as the host. The two touch upon last week's central banks meetings and look ahead to Friday's PCE figure. Finally they discuss overall FX views and also the development in Chinese currency. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Theme: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates
March 20, 2024 13:38 - 34 minutes - 26.1 MBIn today's thematic episode, Charu Chanana is in the studio with Søren Otto. They dive into the recent rate hike from the Bank of Japan. They put it into a historical context and discuss why it's significant. They also talk about, how it'll impact markets and what the path is from here. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities: Nikkei, Nvidia and PDD
March 19, 2024 12:53 - 28 minutes - 22.6 MBIn today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss the Japanese Nikkei index in the light of the Bank of Japan rate hike. They also talk about Nvidia and it's new Blackwell platform. Finally, they dive into the earnings of PDD, parent company of online marketplace Temu. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro & FX: Central bank meetings all over
March 18, 2024 09:15 - 18 minutes - 13.8 MBIn today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as host. The focus in this week is central bank meetings with the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday being the most important. BOJ will demand attention too, while it's also worth keeping an eye on the UK, Swiss and Australian central banks. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Commodities: Action everywhere
March 14, 2024 10:00 - 27 minutes - 23.4 MBIn today's thematic episode, Ole Hansen joins Søren Otto in the studio. They take the temperature on the commodity markets with a specific focus on metals. They also talk about cocoa's wild surge, and what to be aware of with grains and natural gas. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities: Nvidia, Oracle and CPI
March 13, 2024 14:28 - 22 minutes - 17.9 MBIn today's equity-focused episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss the last week's equity performance around the globe before diving into the Nvidia, which is a company that has had a tough week, which can point to greater issues in equity markets. They also talk about the yesterday's CPI inflation number and Oracle earnings. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account ...
Macro & FX: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?
March 11, 2024 07:58 - 27 minutes - 21.4 MBIn today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus. That means Charu Chanana is our in-house expert. She discusses Jerome Powell's speech and the non-farm payrolls from last week. She also looks ahead to a week where the inflation figure CPI is the most important macro number. Finally, she talks about the Japanese yen and British pound. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Fixed income: Gilts, Treasuries and Century bond
March 08, 2024 13:59 - 20 minutes - 15.9 MBSaxo's Head of Fixed Income Strategies, Althea Spinozzi, discusses this week's ECB meeting, Gilts in the light of the UK budget release and evaluates the coming week's Fed meeting and how it may impact Treasuries. With guest host Melody Morgan. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Equities: ESG criteria for the long term
March 06, 2024 10:11 - 14 minutes - 10 MBSaxo's Head of Commercial ESG, Ida Johannesen, discusses how investors can use ESG criteria to make long term investment decisions, and shares her outlook for 2024. With guest host Melody Morgan. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro & FX: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" & Super Tuesday
March 05, 2024 08:51 - 25 minutes - 18.1 MBIn today's episode, Charu Chanana, Saxo's Head of FX Strategy and macro expert, discusses the latest macro and forex news, and what investors should be aware of in the coming week. With guest host Melody Morgan. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Commodities: Why speculative interest is important for everyone
February 29, 2024 11:58 - 24 minutes - 21 MBIn today's episode we're talking with Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, about the weekly so-called Commitment of Trader report and discuss why it may be relevant for all investors interested in commodities. We do so by focusing on cocoa, which has seen a very steep price increase. We dig into the why, how and future perspectives for the commodity. We also discuss grain and natural gas and the difference in dynamics in all three commodities. Read daily in-depth market updates from...
Equities: Evaluating geographical valuations
February 27, 2024 13:30 - 23 minutes - 21 MBIn today’s episode it’s all about equities. That also means that Peter Garnry is the host. He takes on a journey from Asia to the US and through Europe to give a status on the valuation of equities in some of the major markets in the world. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Macro & FX: Will markets turn their attention to macro?
February 26, 2024 07:48 - 23 minutes - 16.2 MBIn today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. After a week with a very high focus on the Nvidia earnings report, markets may move to focus more on macro figures with one of this week's most important ones being the American PCE. Depending on how it comes out, this may inform Fed's approach to rate policy. She also gives an update on last week's positive performance in China and presents what forex to watch. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market C...
Special edition: Why traders and investors should care about the US election
February 22, 2024 04:00 - 28 minutes - 21.3 MBIn this special episode of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equity Strategy and John J. Hardy, former podcast host and US politics expert, dive into the turbulent seas of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and its potential impact on the financial markets. Their discussion revolves around key points are relevant for investors and traders alike to get a better understanding of the effects of what promises to be a highly contentious electoral battle on globa...
Equities: Will Nvidia shake the AI boom?
February 20, 2024 13:08 - 27 minutes - 18.8 MBNvidia's earnings report is the most important event for market sentiment in this week. Expectations are sky high, but past performance has also been remarkable. But the further you go up, the further you risk falling. In today's equity focused episode, Peter Garnry is the expert and he discusses the expectations of Nvidia's earnings and take the temperature of the boom in AI stocks and their expected growth over the past few years. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market C...
Macro & FX: How the debate about the US economy has shifted
February 19, 2024 07:42 - 21 minutes - 14.7 MBIn today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. She discusses how the debate about the US economy has gone from expecting recession to now looking at a so-called “no-landing” scenario. She also touches on the US dollar, US equities as well as Chinese and Japanese performance. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
What rate cuts mean for bond markets
February 15, 2024 12:28 - 21 minutes - 16.4 MBIn today’s episode, Althea Spinozzi, Head of fixed income strategy, is the expert. She presents a status of the US and EU bond markets so far in 2024. She then presents what the current development may mean for fixed income in the coming quarter before discussing what that may mean in terms of diversification and positioning. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Is confidence in a soft landing restored?
February 12, 2024 04:00 - 19 minutes - 15.6 MBIn this episode, Head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry looks back at an action-packed earnings week and concludes the general vibe of it. Looking ahead to the coming week, there will be less earnings, but a host of important macro figures especially from the US, which are bound to come back in to investors' focus as they judge if we are heading for recession, when rate cuts are happening and whether we will have a soft landing. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call an...
Year of the metals
February 09, 2024 04:00 - 26 minutes - 19.2 MBThis week's thematic podcast episode is all about metals. Ole S. Hansen, Head of commodity strategy, is the expert. He talks about the idea that 2024 could be the year of metals - especially gold, silver and copper are in focus. He discusses their performance so far, why it may be their year and how curious people can be invested in the sub-asset class. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with ...
Has the March rate cut been cancelled?
February 06, 2024 04:00 - 31 minutes - 21.8 MBWith Charu Chanana in the studio, we leave the earnings season aside for a while and focus on the macro side of things. We take a look at the US economy in the light of the very strong non-farm payroll report that came out Friday. We also discuss the Red Sea crisis and its implications for oil, freight rates and markets at large. Finally, we assess the financial situation in China and Australia. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Te...
Tis the (earnings) season
February 02, 2024 08:37 - 32 minutes - 22.9 MBThis week has been teeming with earnings and many of the US mastodons as well as Europe's largest company has reported. Therefore, Peter Garnry is once again in the studio to give us an overview of what has happened and what it means for investors and traders across the globe. It's earnings, earnings, earnings. This episode comes out a little bit later than usual, so we're able to catch the freshest earnings from the US region. We hope you still like it and look forward to listen in. Read ...
The biggest earnings week is here
January 30, 2024 04:00 - 23 minutes - 17.6 MBThis week is the biggest during this earnings season, as many of the US tech mastodons will report. Therefore, Peter Garnry is in the studio. Before touching on this exciting week, he and Søren Otto also discuss last week's earnings as well as the key figures that come out of the US. The two also talk about the Chinese real estate company Evergrande and the important central bank meetings that also takes places in the coming week. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Ca...
Earnings are heating up
January 26, 2024 04:00 - 28 minutes - 22.7 MBIn this week's thematic episode, we're talking earnings season with Peter Garnry, Head of equity strategy. We talk about earnings seasons in general and what Garnry pays attention to when reading an earnings report. He also gives his view on some of the biggest reports this week and looks ahead to the coming week, where earnings will roll in. Finally, we talk about how investors can get going by integrating earnings seasons into their investment strategy. Read daily in-depth market updates ...
Central banks and key figures run the show
January 23, 2024 04:00 - 27 minutes - 18.7 MBIn today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Charu Chanana, Market Strategist and Head of FX strategy is the expert. Together with Søren Otto, she provides an overview of the financial status in important financial regions. First, she talks about the US and how a variety of factors may impact the timing and pacing of rate cutes by the FED (1.02). She also gives a brief overview of the European situation and how the ECB meeting this week may affect that (6.45), before a short status on the e...
Sticking the landing: what a normalising yield curve means for bond investors
January 19, 2024 04:00 - 23 minutes - 17.9 MBIn the first episode of our thematic podcast, we zero in yield curve normalisation. The expert in the studio is Head of fixed income strategy, Althea Spinozzi. She talks about how the yield curve is bound to normalise and how that may look depending on whether we see a soft or hard landing - or what she refers to as a 70's landing. She also takes the temperature on both sovereign and corporate bonds to consider the risk and return pictures for the fixed income asset class. Read daily in-dep...
Uncertainty is the name of the game
January 16, 2024 04:00 - 23 minutes - 17.2 MBIn today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Ole S. Hansen discuss the conflicting CPI and PPI numbers that came out last week and their potential impact on the markets' expectations to rate cuts through the year (01.57). They then talk about the new SEC-approved Bitcoin ETFs (04.48) followed by a brief update on the Taiwan election (9.36). Friday, the banks kicked of the earnings season, which is only going to pick up pace over the next weeks (10.51). As Ole is our commodit...
Fixed-income: Fair value, inflation report and our outlook for bonds
January 10, 2024 14:37 - 16 minutes - 12.9 MBThis is the first fixed-income episode of the year and we are talking about the negative start to the year with rising bond yields and one US rate cut almost being priced out already. We also talk about whether the US 10-year yield here at 4% is attractive and what the risks are and especially in the context of tomorrow's US inflation report. We also talk about our recently published quarterly outlook where we highlighted three scenarios in the economy and how these scenarios will impact the...
Macro and FX: Upcoming US CPI figures, USD momentum, and musings on China
January 08, 2024 09:01 - 17 minutes - 12.6 MBIn today's episode we talk about Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls and how to read the report while looking ahead to this week's US macro figures across NFIB small business optimism index, initial jobless claims and the important inflation report on Thursday. We also talk about the USD rebound this year and whether momentum can continue and touches on levels in USDJPY and EURUSD. Finally, we touch on the weak sentiment in China and the big batch of Chinese macro data coming out before ending the ...
Commodities: Crude oil and gold in focus as a new year begins
January 04, 2024 14:26 - 17 minutes - 13 MBIn today's episode we discuss the developments in the Middle East and how it is impacting crude oil, gold given the expected lower policy rate this year and inflation expectations generally trending down, and finally a perspective on the grains sector that had a terrible 2023, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Equities: What to expect in 2024?
January 03, 2024 14:04 - 17 minutes - 13.5 MBIn the first episode of the year we discuss what to expect in equities. We touch on different topics ranging from BYD overtaking Tesla as the largest EV maker in the world, earnings growth expectations and whether they are realistic, the AI hype and whether it can continue, what we like the most in developed market equities, thoughts on China and India, and whether we can expect a recession or not, with Søren Otto Simonsen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo M...
Macro and FX: Watch USD sentiment and BoJ hints on rate policy
December 18, 2023 09:00 - 14 minutes - 10.2 MBThis is the last macro episode before the holiday season. We talk about the upcoming macro figures this week and why they might matter less given the Fed pivot on policy rates. The USD weakening last week and we discuss whether the trend will continue into in the year. Finally, we focus on BoJ rate decision tomorrow with expectations looking for no change but markets are certain that BoJ will hint of maybe leaving negative interest rates behind at the January meeting, with Charu Chanana and ...
Special Edition: The best outrageous prediction for 2024 by our clients
December 14, 2023 12:00 - 19 minutes - 14 MBIn this episode we discuss what we have chosen to be the best outrageous prediction for 2024 sent to us by our clients at Saxo. The outrageous prediction is simply that government abandons the GDP measure as the yardstick for progress and how to steer the economy. Given that rising GDP has been the key policy objective by developed countries since the Great Depression this would truly be an outrageous prediction. We discuss this outrageous idea and the problems with GDP in a greater macroeco...
Fixed-income: Where are we now, surprises in 2023, and what to expect in 2024
December 12, 2023 12:00 - 19 minutes - 15.7 MBThis is likely the last podcast on fixed income this year so we take a look at the current situation with rate decisions this week from the Fed, ECB and BoE. We also go through the key events and performances across bonds in 2023 with high yield bonds and the Austrian 100-year bond being some of the biggest surprises. Finally, we talk about what to expect in bonds next year as the market has fixed its expectations on lower inflation and lower policy rates, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinoz...
Macro and FX: Will central banks, inflation, and PMIs deliver fireworks?
December 11, 2023 09:34 - 16 minutes - 11.5 MBThis week is crucial for markets given the big moves last week across gold and JPY with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday supporting the soft landing narrative. Tomorrow, the US inflation report will set the stage for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the key focus is still on services inflation. On Thursday, ECB and BoE will deliver rate decisions and Friday will end the week with key PMI figures across the Eurozone, UK and the US. Central banks will not keep rates so the market will focus o...
Equities: YTD performance, rate cuts pricing, and Adobe earnings
December 06, 2023 15:37 - 16 minutes - 13.4 MBToday we discuss equity market performance across country indices and thematic baskets highlighting Nasdaq 100 as the big winner together with semiconductors and cyber security. We also talk about the equal weighted performance between US and European equities which has not been that bad after all for Europe. We also discuss the current policy rate cuts priced in markets and how for now they are viewed as a positive thing but that it could quickly change. Finally, we flag upcoming earnings r...
Special Edition: Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions 2024
December 05, 2023 14:00 - 30 minutes - 23.9 MBLink to our publication -> Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the world is set for a very different journey than the calm environment post the pandemic with little geopolitical risks, stable technology backdrop, low inflation, and low interest rates. Three our outrageous predictions are 1) With oil at $150, Saudis b...
Macro and FX: Key macro data this week, the USD slide ended and gold is on the move
December 04, 2023 09:00 - 16 minutes - 11.5 MBLast week's backdrop was shaped by Fed Waller's comments about rate hikes had ended and the market got into overdrive mode on those comments and soft inflation figures repricing bond yields lower across the curve. This week will be interesting with key macro figures across JOTLS job opening ISM Services tomorrow and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The USD also finally turned around last week and gold spot was also reacting forcefully to the lower bond yields. Finally, with RBA rate decision comi...
Commodities: Mixed performance as peak rates gather momentum
November 30, 2023 14:00 - 15 minutes - 11.1 MBOil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here. Click here to open an account with Saxo
Equities: Dangerous index concentration, cyber security stocks, and the wisdom of Charlie Munger
November 29, 2023 14:00 - 19 minutes - 15.9 MBToday we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he d...
Fixed-income: Biggest rally in US 10-year Treasuries since August 2011
November 28, 2023 14:00 - 13 minutes - 10.5 MBToday we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bp...
Macro and FX: Inflation week, PMI test in China, and USDJPY
November 27, 2023 09:00 - 15 minutes - 11 MBAfter last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk...