Jack Tame: Todd Muller's chances diminishing by the day

Seven weeks ago, the morning after Todd Muller became the new leader of the National Party, I said I thought he could win September’s election.
Never say never, but whatever chances he and National might have had then are diminishing by the day.
It’s odd really, because the playbook was pretty obvious. Muller was praised early on for acknowledging what the government had done well with the Covid-19 health response. That was a smart move. As the World grappled with thousands upon thousands of deaths, you couldn’t ignore the fact that relative to most other countries, we were doing stupendously well. The vast majority of New Zealanders thought the government had done a good job. All Muller and National had to do in the following few weeks was turn attention to the future of New Zealand’s economic recovery.  
But what has become increasingly clear is that before the leadership challenge, Todd Muller and his supporters focused all of their attention and energy on the challenge itself; the seizing of power, rather than what might follow in the next few days and weeks.
I find it quite remarkable, even in the uncertain world of Covid-19, that in the weeks after he took over, National wasn’t pumping out new policies, and Muller wasn’t looking to more assertively differentiate himself from the previous party leader. National has criticised the government plenty for quarantine and border restrictions, but they haven’t articulated clearly just what they would do differently. And of course any criticisms they now make are going to come with a giant footnote reminding voters that they were the ones responsible for leaking the covid-19 patients’ data.  
This should have been a week for National to make hay. They should have been scoring points. They should have been crowing from the rooftops about Tiwai Point and the breaches of quarantine.
But No. 
The political news cycle moves very quickly. Who knows what will be sucking up oxygen in a couple of weeks? You can only imagine that community transmission – heaven forbid – would significantly change public discourse heading into September.
But I still think National faces a tough ask in shifting an impression that the Party is unusually disorganised.
Think about it. For the longest time, National MPs have sold their party as the efficient manager... slick, organised, united, and cohesive. I can’t imagine the row boat advertisement of a few years back working so well for them right now.
The party clearly hasn’t got some of its basic systems and chains-of-command in check. For example, Hamish Walker should never have been allowed to send out a press release on a potentially sensitive issue without the explicit approval and sign-off of the leader and the leader’s senior advisors. 
As soon as he found out his party was responsible for the data leak, Todd Muller should have immediately sought assurances from all of his MPs they didn’t also have the information.
I can’t keep up with the number of National MPs who are standing down at this election, which, again, doesn’t help with a sense of cohesion. And if the polls are bad, there will be some list MPs and MPs in marginal seats feeling very anxious indeed. That won’t help unity one bit. 
National needs to do something more basic than convince voters they should be in government. They need to convince voters they’re ready to be in government.