Risk of Ruin
39 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 1 month ago -Audio documentaries about risk takers.
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Episodes
Value Traps
May 27, 2024 20:00 - 1 hour - 48 MBDavid Orr is a former poker player turned fund manager. He started out investing with a value bias, and then eventually did a 180 and started shorting value traps. He talks about how his strategy evolved and also his plan to grow his fund. Follow David on Twitter: https://twitter.com/orrdavid Support the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly Email: risk of ruin pod at gmail
Movers
March 04, 2024 12:00 - 1 hour - 65.5 MBCurtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a sportsbook. Find Reilly on X. https://twitter.com/ValleyBlitz_15 Support the show credit card links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit?usp...
The Character Building Side Effect of Losing
December 26, 2023 23:00 - 52 minutes - 36 MBJason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms. Follow Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/strassa2 Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ha...
Waiting on Value
December 26, 2023 00:00 - 49 minutes - 33.8 MBEvan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments. Follow Evan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/evantindell Bireme Capital Blog Post on Meta: https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/pounding-the-table-on-meta Risk of Ruin Podcast Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ Email the show risk of ruin pod at gmail. Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitt...
Zero, by Way of a Hundred
December 25, 2023 03:00 - 55 minutes - 38.1 MBJohn Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard. John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_Hempton John's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/ Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/t...
Life's Too Short
December 24, 2023 01:00 - 53 minutes - 36.8 MBMarc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direc...
Credit Card Arbitrage
December 17, 2023 00:00 - 1 hour - 42.6 MBMatt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing...
You Can't Beat the Lottery*
October 25, 2023 01:00 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBMr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery. Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppy Support the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot com Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly
Rocket Man
October 20, 2023 06:00 - 1 hour - 73 MBIn 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga. Guests: Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capital https://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJr Evan Tindell - Bireme Capital https://twitter.com/evantindell Chance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Daily https://twitter.com/chancery_daily Media Clips Used: Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Call https://www.yo...
The Mayfair Revisited
October 20, 2023 01:00 - 1 hour - 58 MBErik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve. Special thanks to Larry Bernstein. Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail Twitter: @halfkelly Follow Erik on Twitter: @Erik_Seidel
A Family Business
October 18, 2023 00:00 - 1 hour - 42.6 MBJim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks. Follow Dan on Twitter: @dan_pasko Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly Email t...
The Game-like Aspect
October 16, 2023 18:00 - 47 minutes - 32.4 MBKai talks about leaving the work world behind in favor of early retirement, and the part time pursuit of bank and credit card bonuses. He also discusses Lean FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) and how churning bonuses fits into his FIRE plan. Kai's podcast: The Daily Churn https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-churn/id1577648675 Email the show: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly
Greetings from Las Vegas - Part I
October 10, 2023 03:00 - 46 minutes - 32.2 MBMark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas. Follow Zack White on Twitter. Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter. Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter. Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated.
Greetings from Las Vegas - Part II
October 10, 2023 02:00 - 45 minutes - 31.3 MBMark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas. Follow Zack White on Twitter. Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter. Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter. Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated.
The Audacity of Help
October 02, 2023 18:00 - 1 hour - 50.4 MBRichard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork. Darryl Purpose's music website: https://darrylpurpose.com/ Richard Munchkin / Gambing With an Edge: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/ Earlier episode of Risk of Ruin featuring Richard and Darryl: https:...
The Frontier - Part II
August 19, 2023 20:00 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBTo this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part II of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in. To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree. https://linktr.ee/johnreeder
The Frontier - Part I
August 17, 2023 21:00 - 1 hour - 48.3 MBTo this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part I of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in. To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree. https://linktr.ee/johnreeder
A Healthy Disrespect
June 12, 2023 21:00 - 1 hour - 41.3 MBKyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in baseball. Prior to his career in sports Kyle was a professional gambler. On this episode he tells stories about exploiting online casino bonuses, as well as shuffle tracking, and playing poker. Driveline Baseball: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/ Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drivelinekyle Blackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook: https://ww...
The Road of Trials
May 06, 2023 06:00 - 49 minutes - 34.3 MBHouyi went from Yale Law School to a job in finance before he left it all behind to become a professional advantage player. He talks about counting cards, learning to play hole cards, traveling the world, and a fateful poker game in Cambodia. Email the show: [email protected] Follow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
Bill Perkins is Not Afraid
May 06, 2023 04:00 - 44 minutes - 30.8 MBBill Perkins is a natural gas trader, a minor celebrity in the poker world, and the author of "Die With Zero." Bill talks about his start in the markets and becoming an energy trader. He tells the story of almost blowing up during an extremely cold winter. Links: Die With Zero https://www.diewithzerobook.com/ Bill's Twitter https://twitter.com/bp22 Bill's Instagram https://www.instagram.com/billperkins/?hl=en WSJ Article titled "The Last Cowboy" https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-perkins...
David & Goliath, Part I
May 05, 2023 06:00 - 39 minutes - 26.9 MBThey went to Las Vegas as card counters and over years they discovered other ways to win in the casino. Eventually they became advantage players. This episode is about the Las Vegas that existed before mega resorts. Our heroes played hole cards, used computers in the casino, used video cameras in the casino - to name a few of the crazy stunts they pulled off. Guests: Richard Munchkin, Mark Billings, Tommy Hyland, Darryl Purpose. Contact the show: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly...
David & Goliath, Part II
May 05, 2023 05:00 - 31 minutes - 21.5 MBThey went to Las Vegas as card counters and over years they discovered other ways to win in the casino. Eventually they became advantage players. This episode is about the Las Vegas that existed before mega resorts. Our heroes played hole cards, used computers in the casino, used video cameras in the casino - to name a few of the crazy stunts they pulled off. Guests: Richard Munchkin, Mark Billings, Tommy Hyland, Darryl Purpose. Contact the show: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly
Inside Long Term Capital
May 02, 2023 20:00 - 1 hour - 43.5 MBThe story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM. Resources: HBS Study on LTCM dividend Eric's talk at MIT in 2009 Michael Lewis article on LTCM When Genius Failed, Roger Lowenstein Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly Email: [email protected] Web: halfkelly.com
The Disrespected
May 01, 2023 22:00 - 1 hour - 50 MBMarc Cohodes was the subject of the prior episode titled "Life's Too Short." Marc returns to the podcast to talk about figuring out the FTX scheme, using that to short Silvergate, and Signature Banks, and also the banking turmoil that has followed. Follow Marc on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggs Life's Too Short https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lifes-too-short/id1527018692?i=1000498472731 Odd Lots episode with Sam Bankman-Fried https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sam-bank...
Blackjack Legacy
March 13, 2023 01:00 - 50 minutes - 34.5 MBJeff Ma was a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He told his story to the writer Ben Mezrich, who wrote a book titled "Bringing Down the House." The book was later made into the movie "21" which starred Kevin Spacey, Kate Bosworth, and Jim Sturgess. In addition to blackjack, Jeff talks about his career in tech where he has focused on using data and analytics to create value. Note: an earlier upload contained a claim that the Patriots were caught filming opponent practices. That has been cor...
Rabbit Hole
February 16, 2023 05:00 - 1 hour - 45 MBAn episode about the ever elusive idea of winning at craps using physical skill, aka dice control. Guests: Advantage player Frank B., PhD economist Robert Scott, and special guest Richard Munchkin. Risk of Ruin Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/ Links: Robert Scott's papers on dice control https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1375&context=grrj https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrj Gambling With an Edge e...
From Blackjack to Black Monday
February 08, 2023 01:00 - 34 minutes - 23.5 MBBlair Hull played on the original Big Player blackjack team in the 1970s. He played with Al Francesco, Ken Uston, and ran into other pioneers of the game including Keith Taft. The Francesco teams were the subject of the book "The Big Player". After blackjack Blair moved into the financial markets where he used his proprietary options strategies to turn $25,000 into millions. Blair talks about his life searching for edges, and the lessons he learned. Links: Hull Tactical ETF Email the show:...
Two Hustlers
September 14, 2022 20:00 - 50 minutes - 35 MBMickey Crimm hitchhiked to Laughlin with little more than a sleeping bag and a backpack. In the casinos there he learned to hustle slot machines and play video poker with an advantage. He made a career out of these advantages and built up a bankroll over the years. Bob Dancer arrived in Vegas with a bankroll of $6,0000. He eventually became a video poker pro and then later a millionaire. This episode is about playing casino machines with an advantage. Resources: Follow Risk of Ruin on T...
A Seemingly Obvious Idea
September 05, 2022 01:00 - 45 minutes - 31.2 MBAndrew "Bert" Black is a co-founder of Betfair, which is the world's largest betting exchange. He recounts his life in gambling, coming up with the idea for Betfair, and how they managed to win the P2P betting war in the early 2000s. Bert's horse farm: https://www.chasemorefarm.co.uk/ Bert's Twitter: https://twitter.com/bertthebold Email the show: [email protected] Follow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
Made in America - Part I
September 01, 2022 19:00 - 44 minutes - 30.6 MBThe lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. Our guests talk about getting started in gambling, going from losers to winners, and the technology they use to keep their edges. Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray Marino Spanky's Be Better Bettors: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/be-better-bettors/id1493902736 Captain Jack's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH3gZ9jpBZY Captain Jack's new venture: https://unabated.com Ray Marino: https://www.book...
Made in America - Part II
September 01, 2022 08:00 - 47 minutes - 32.8 MBThe lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. The guests expand on the relationship between sharp bettors and bookmakers. Spanky talks about being the target of a government investigation. Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray Marino Spanky's podcast on closing line value: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/closing-line-breakdown/id1493902736?i=1000505042641 Spanky's interview with Chris Bruno: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/christopher-bruno-interview/id1493...
Before the Boom
May 23, 2022 14:00 - 49 minutes - 34 MBBarry Greenstein is in the poker Hall of Fame based on a resume that includes decades as a professional player, and being a regular at high stakes cash games. In this episode he talks about his life playing games including bridge, backgammon, poker, sports, and more. He also tells stories from his 50 years in poker, where he's played with Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey, Dr. Jerry Buss, Larry Flynt, Andy Beal, and more. Find Barry on Twitter. Find Dealio Poker. The Professor, the Banker, and the...
Swimming With Sharks
March 22, 2022 23:00 - 43 minutes - 30.1 MBHoward Lindzon started his career as a stock broker. In the late 90s he founded a small hedge fund. Then he went on to found Wallstrip and Stocktwits. In 2013 his venture capital fund invested $100,000 in Robinhood. His career illustrates that the delineation between retail and smart money isn't a bright line. As a hedge fund manager he outperformed the S&P despite the fact that he did not have access to the same data used by most big funds. He advocates for, and his career supports, the id...
The Idea Man
June 17, 2021 18:00 - 46 minutes - 32.3 MBDr. William Ziemba talks about his life working on horse racing, lotteries, and the stock market. Links: Bill's website where you can find his books and a summary of his career. Article on Bill Benter Article on Jeff Yass Obit for on Paul Makin Article on Harry McPike Wikipedia entry for Ed Thorp Risk of Ruin episode about Blair Hull Email the show: [email protected] Follow us on Twitter: @halfkelly
What Are the Odds?
June 01, 2021 22:00 - 59 minutes - 40.8 MBArnold Snyder and Radar talk about becoming advantage players, a shuffle tracking play on a million dollar bankroll, and how they ended up together. Link to Radical Blackjack by Arnold Snyder: https://www.amazon.com/Radical-Blackjack-Arnold-Snyder/dp/1944877487/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Email the show: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly
The Points and Miles Game
January 15, 2021 20:00 - 54 minutes - 37.5 MBTravel hackers spend their days looking for inefficiencies in the credit card points system. This episode is about two travel hackers, Nick Reyes and Grant Thomas, and how they ended up completely down the rabbit hole. They talk about spending hundreds of thousands of miles per year, and also relay tips for newcomers to the hobby. Follow Nick Reyes on Twitter. Read his writing at the Frequent Miler. Get the Frequent Miler Podcast on iTunes. Follow Grant Thomas on Twitter. Read his writing ...
The Road Warrior - Part II
October 23, 2020 21:00 - 37 minutes - 25.5 MBThe secret lives of traveling card counters. Comps, casino backoffs, a converted sprinter van, and more. The true story of what it's like to be a traveling professional gambler, by people that actually live it. Guests: SassyRed, Joe748, Ryemo, and Dan Email: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly Special thanks to Colin Jones of Blackjack Apprenticeship.
The Road Warrior - Part I
October 23, 2020 21:00 - 40 minutes - 28 MBThe secret lives of traveling card counters. Comps, casino backoffs, a converted sprinter van, and more. The true story of what it's like to be a traveling professional gambler, by people that actually live it. Guests: SassyRed, Joe748, Ryemo, and Dan Email: [email protected] Twitter: @halfkelly Special thanks to Colin Jones of Blackjack Apprenticeship.
Casino Exploits
August 07, 2020 19:00 - 54 minutes - 37.6 MBThe Gambling With an Edge podcast has made some 500 episodes featuring gamblers from every game imaginable. While most gambling content on the internet is filled with scammers and con artists, GWAE finds guests with credibility who have made their living as professional gamblers. This pilot episode is a tribute to GWAE. GWAE Archive: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/ GWAE Facebook page:https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge/ GWAE Blog: https://www....