RaboResearch Agri Commodities
87 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 2 months ago - ★★★★ - 10 ratingsRabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 85 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa.
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Episodes
The cocoa rally explained
March 01, 2024 13:39 - 14 minutes - 20.3 MBThe cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, recent price action is fundamentally driven by systemic production issues in West Africa that have led to an enor...
January 2024 WASDE: Disciplined consumers are rewarded
January 16, 2024 13:58 - 18 minutes - 26 MBLast Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook (Buyers sail home on rising supplies) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower global G&O prices.
Grain & oilseed markets move south
November 29, 2023 07:00 - 16 minutes - 23 MBJoin Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers. North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short positions. The risk premium is now largely in soybeans and South America, where more conducive weather (Brazi...
Bulls feed on old grain
October 16, 2023 06:00 - 12 minutes - 17.6 MBThe October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed.
Softs Rally Hard
June 30, 2023 13:23 - 11 minutes - 15.6 MBSince the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three commodities. In this podcast, commodity analysts Paul Joules and Carlos Mera discuss the outloo...
April WASDE: USDA Cuts Argentine Yields
April 13, 2023 08:36 - 7 minutes - 10.4 MBWith minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season.
Outlook 2023: Tightening the Belt
December 06, 2022 08:41 - 13 minutes - 18.9 MBJoin Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as weak consumer demand and more normal weather combine to revive supplies.
October 2022 WASDE: USDA Scissorhands
October 13, 2022 15:05 - 10 minutes - 14.4 MBOn the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bearish on corn and bullish on soy, and it resulted in funds partially unwinding their corn/soy spre...
September WASDE: USDA’s Struggle Session
September 16, 2022 09:11 - 17 minutes - 24.8 MBIn the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR’s August WASDE Report predicted the USDA “may rue their bold move” to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing demand to avoid outright scarcity. A supply-side crisis will give corn and soybean bulls a strong foothold to climb higher...
Momentum
August 16, 2022 11:35 - 14 minutes - 21.3 MBOn the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilseed production. For wheat, recent production improvements among exporters are slightly bearish; t...
Funds in the Sun
July 15, 2022 13:35 - 17 minutes - 23.8 MBHead of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies. From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are strong. Reserves for next year are set to remain well below historical averages, and heat is a ...
High G&O Prices Will Shrink China's Imports and Demand
February 28, 2022 14:54 - 16 minutes - 22.8 MBJoin Rabobank’s Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in China, Lief Chiang, and ACMR’s Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the factors behind the high-price environment in G&O and what it means for China's feed demand.
The Ukraine Metacrisis and Its Impact on Agri Commodity Markets
February 01, 2022 10:54 - 15 minutes - 22.7 MBRussia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular could double, as Turkey, the Middle East, and northern Africa struggle to source wheat from elsew...
Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 2: Softs
December 21, 2021 07:00 - 11 minutes - 16.9 MBSoft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR’s Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee.
Agri Commodities Outlook 2022, Part 1: Grains & Oilseeds
December 20, 2021 07:00 - 15 minutes - 22 MBJoin ACMR’s Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the high price environment in G&O and the risks ahead for 2022. Wheat, feed grains and vegetable oils all hit multi-year highs in 2022 due to supply issues and strong demand. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña, high input costs and post-Covid demand threaten to keep supplies on the ropes and prices well supported.
Halloween Special: More Tricks Than Treats
October 26, 2021 12:50 - 11 minutes - 16.8 MBJoin Rabobank's ACMR team on this very spooky podcast as Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz share frightening tales about global food inflation that will send a shiver down your spine and might send you running for the candy aisles.
September 2021 WASDE: Consumers Come in From the Cold
September 14, 2021 07:59 - 12 minutes - 17.9 MBLast Friday, the USDA published a nominally bearish September WASDE report, with higher objective yields and acreage lifting US corn, soy, and cotton production and ending stocks. Yet, CBOT counterintuitively rallied in response as it became clear that increased G&O availability would be gobbled up by sidelined consumers. Join Rabobank’s Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they deconstruct the latest WASDE report.
EU ‘Fit for 55’ Carbon Reductions: What’s the Impact on Canola?
August 18, 2021 06:00 - 25 minutes - 35.8 MBThe European Commission has proposed ‘Fit for 55’, a package of policies aimed at reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. What does this mean for biofuel and, consequently, canola demand? Our G&O analyst in Australia, Dennis Voznesenski, chats with Rabobank’s Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds, Stefan Vogel. This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand
Any Catches for Aussie Cotton?
August 02, 2021 15:35 - 23 minutes - 33 MBThe 2021/22 outlook for the Australian cotton sector appears bright in terms of production prospects and price. To find out if there are any catches, RaboResearch’s Agri Commodity Markets Cotton Analyst Andrew Rawlings joins Cheryl Kalisch Gordon of RaboResearch Australia to discuss the global market outlook and local Australian conditions. This episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand
Heavy Rains Batter Europe as Harvest Gets Serious
July 26, 2021 06:00 - 19 minutes - 28.3 MBFirst, we saw severe dryness in the western US and Canada, which continues. Now, we have heavy rains and even flooding across parts of Europe during harvest. Are these weather events a big deal? Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Analyst in Australia, is joined by Stefan Vogel, Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds based in Europe, to delve into the details.
Acreage Gains Prove Hard to Make
July 01, 2021 15:34 - 13 minutes - 20 MBIn the wake of the USDA’s June Acreage and Stocks Reports, we discuss the likely impacts on G&O and cotton markets given the USDA’s latest estimates. Expectations for acreage gains were high given higher prices during plantings this season, but mixed weather across the US and stiff competition for acres between crops meant those gains were hard to achieve, especially in corn and soybeans. US June grain stocks also declined to a six-year low. With tighter stocks and lower-than-expected aggreg...
Export Tax Gains for Australian Croppers and Russian Shoppers
June 08, 2021 06:00 - 13 minutes - 19 MBIn a bid to reduce food price inflation, the Russian government put in place an export tax on grains & oilseeds in February. What impact will this have on Russian exports to Australia’s key export destinations? Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst covering Europe, Africa, & the Black Sea, and Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in Australia, dive into the details.
The Canola Files, Part 3: Golden Prices Flatten China’s Demand
May 25, 2021 06:00 - 23 minutes - 33 MBCheryl Kalisch Gordon, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst with Rabobank Australia & New Zealand, is joined by her colleague Lief Chiang, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst based in China, to discuss why the outlook for canola demand in China is flat.
FX and Inflation to Affect Agri Commodity Prices
May 12, 2021 06:00 - 15 minutes - 21.8 MBThe rise of commodity prices in the last year has been supported by the weakness of the US dollar and increasing inflation expectations. While the US dollar has an obvious link to commodity prices, the inflationary concerns are attracting more funds to commodities as they look for an inflation hedge. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, joins Carlos Mera, head of Agri Commodity Markets Research, to discuss what's next for FX, inflation, and the economic recovery.
Bears Come In From the Cold
April 26, 2021 06:00 - 17 minutes - 25.4 MBIn the latest installment of the RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Stefan Vogel and Michael Magdovitz review the explosive grain & oilseed price dynamics entering the critical weather market. Soy and corn have breached USD 15 and USD 6 per bushel, respectively, amid adverse weather that has left bears coming in from the cold. Join Stefan and Michael as they comprehensively address acreage, yield, stocks, and industry prospects for the year ahead.
Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Implications for Grains Markets
April 20, 2021 06:00 - 14 minutes - 20.9 MBOver the last month, tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia have boiled over. Troops from both sides have amassed on the border of eastern Ukraine, and now the Russian defense ministry has announced plans for blocking the Kerch Strait, a passageway connecting the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, for foreign war ships and other state ships. What does this mean, and what are the possible implications if escalation continues? Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds analyst, and Michael Ev...
April WASDE: Market in the Middle
April 13, 2021 08:38 - 11 minutes - 17.1 MBThe April WASDE was destined to be overshadowed by its two explosive siblings – the March Prospective plantings and the new crop May WASDE. Nevertheless, the April WASDE contained important changes at the margins that help set the stage for broad upside price risks to corn, soy, wheat and cotton moving into the US weather market. Join the ACMR team as they discuss the WASDE report and price prospects for products in the months ahead.
You Reap What You Sow
April 08, 2021 13:21 - 15 minutes - 22.6 MBThe USDA’s Prospective Plantings report came in far below expectations on corn and soy and heaped pressure on yields, whose weak performance would exacerbate seven-year high scarcity. CBOT G&O bears' expectations for an imminent G&O resupply have likely been dashed. Instead, consumers face growing trepidation ahead of an historic weather market and potential for scarcity to extend well into next year. Join ACMR’s Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they discuss the explosive report and ...
The 2021 Outlook for China’s, India’s, and Southeast Asia’s Edible Oils
March 25, 2021 07:00 - 18 minutes - 26.7 MBLief Chiang and Oscar Tjakra join to discuss the 2021 outlook for edible oils in China, India, and Southeast Asia. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
ICE #2 Cotton: On a Tear or Torn Apart?
March 23, 2021 07:00 - 11 minutes - 17 MBAfter being ravaged by the pandemic, demand recovery expectations coupled with unrelenting Chinese imports led ICE#2 Cotton prices 30% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Despite a recent sell-off, prices continue to trade at a premium – but how long can this continue? In this podcast, Agri Commodities Market Research and RaboResearch Australia converse on the current global supply and demand situation and the factors that could influence prices in the season ahead. This episode also ap...
Speculation in Commodities to Continue
March 22, 2021 15:39 - 7 minutes - 10.9 MBRyan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist, joins Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research, to discuss speculation in commodities markets. Funds have reached some extreme positions in both energy and agriculture, and Rabobank analysts do not expect this to stop, as persistently low interest rates and inflation concerns continue to lead funds to invest more into commodities. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Softs | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don’t Break
December 03, 2020 18:27 - 10 minutes - 14.7 MBThe 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
G&O | Agri Commodities Outlook 2021: Bull Waves Don’t Break
December 03, 2020 18:25 - 11 minutes - 16.2 MBThe 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19’s economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Halloween Special: Scary Wheat Prices, Ghostly Chocolate Prices, and Spooky Sugar Prices
October 26, 2020 15:37 - 12 minutes - 17.9 MBThe prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition podcast, we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Oil Heats Up, and Farmers Get Cooking
September 25, 2020 13:41 - 14 minutes - 20.6 MBVegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank’s Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and their price outlooks on the podcast. The content of this podcast is for information purp...
Sweet, Sweet Speculation: How Funds Are Supporting Sugar
September 10, 2020 19:00 - 16 minutes - 22.9 MBCarlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Opportunity Awaits the ‘Bolled’ and Brave – A Ten-Year Outlook for Cotton
September 03, 2020 22:30 - 14 minutes - 21.9 MBCharlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
G&O Market Update July 2020
July 16, 2020 16:31 - 20 minutes - 28.9 MBIn this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and misplaced expectations of threatening weather in the Midwest. Meanwhile, CBOT Wheat prices have ...
Coffee Outlook Q2 2020
June 08, 2020 15:21 - 12 minutes - 17.9 MBWhile the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in markets where people are used to drinking tea at home and in markets with increasing unemployment b...
May 2020 G&O Market Update
June 04, 2020 06:00 - 15 minutes - 20.8 MBBrent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric. The rather positive USDA expectations for US 2020/21 soybean exports will require a strong commi...
CBOT Springs a Leak – Agri Commodity Markets Monthly April 2020
April 30, 2020 14:50 - 14 minutes - 20.9 MBApril witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring plantings in the US are proceeding well but have the potential to bring volatility. The conte...
Havoc in the Hamper, Hell in the Handbasket
March 26, 2020 18:28 - 17 minutes - 25.7 MBJoin the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and feed products like wheat, coffee, and soymeal, stockpiling and supply chain concerns are driving ...
Slow Recovery: Coronavirus Will Extend the Feed-Demand Hangover
March 02, 2020 13:29 - 15 minutes - 21.8 MBChina G&O analyst Lief Chiang and ACMR analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the spread of coronavirus and the threat it poses to already fragile Chinese and global feed demand. Lief and Michael then consider the implications of coronavirus on China’s 'phase-one' trade deal compliance, US summer plantings, and CBOT Corn and Soybean prices through 2020. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
What Brexit Could Mean for Global Sugar
March 02, 2020 07:00 - 15 minutes - 21.6 MBBrexit is anticipated to have far-reaching impacts around the world, with many industries – including sugar – feeling the effects. Charlie Clack and Maria Afonso join forces to see if Brexit could, however, also translate into opportunities for the world’s major sugar exporters. This podcast episode also appears on our sister podcast RaboResearch F&A Australia/New Zealand The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Is Sugar's Sweet Start to 2020 Here to Stay?
February 10, 2020 07:00 - 16 minutes - 24.4 MBSugar prices have gained ground in 2020, owing to a catalogue of reasons including speculative buying and global supply and demand. Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to outline the reasons, risks, and outlook for the year ahead. This episode also appears on our RaboResearch F&A Australia & New Zealand sister podcast The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
US-China: Phase One
February 05, 2020 15:52 - 14 minutes - 21.1 MBWhat does 'phase one' mean for US agriculture? Is it a return to normal, or is the old normal gone for good? RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Erin FitzPatrick and Steve Nicholson talk through some possibilities with Andrew Tasker from Rabobank's Markets team. This episode originally appeared on our RaboResearch F&A North America sister podcast The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Coffee Rally Keeps Traders Awake and Farmers Happy
December 19, 2019 00:00 - 10 minutes - 15.3 MBArabica coffee prices rallied 40% in the last two months on the back of a frantic speculative rally. This is in sharp contrast to the low-price trend seen over the last two years, in which coffee prices traded below cost of production. Commodity analysts Carlos Mera and Andrew Rawlings discuss the reasons for the rally and where it may lead. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Hot Oil: Vegetable Oil Prices Rise to the Top
December 17, 2019 15:25 - 12 minutes - 18.3 MBThe vegetable oil complex has enjoyed strong price increases in 2019. In this ACMR podcast episode, grain & oilseed analysts Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz review vegetable oil market fundamentals and price catalysts for CBOT Soy Oil, MDE Palm Oil, and Matif Rapeseed. Listen in as Oscar and Michael share Rabobank’s price outlook for vegetable oils in 2020. The content of this podcast is for information purposes only. Review our disclaimer here.
Upsides in a Burdened Global Grain Market
November 06, 2019 07:00 - 25 minutes - 35.5 MBRabobank’s Global G&O Strategist, Stefan Vogel, joins Australian-based Senior G&O Analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon to talk grains. They discuss where we expect upside in a market burdened by supply and trade war troubles, what might undermine that upside, and what this means in the context of Australia’s 2019/20, again, drought-affected grain harvest. This episode also appeared on our sister podcast RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/New Zealand The content of this podcast is fo...
Sugar: Volatility Ahead
August 23, 2019 11:01 - 16 minutes - 23.4 MBIn this joint Rabobank ACMR & FAR Australia podcast, South-East Asia Sugar expert Charles Clack joins ACMR senior analyst Carlos Mera to discuss the outlook for sugar prices. While the current glut in the market is manifested in heavy deliveries of both raws and whites, the market is turning towards a global deficit in 2019/20. The drop in estimates for the 2019/20 crops in Thailand, India and the EU stands in sharp contrast to the record net short position held on London #5 (whites) futures...