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Episode Summary:

To buy or not to buy?To buy or not to buy?Micron earnings recap MU

Guests:

Joel Kulina, Wedbush Head of Technology/Media Trading, Wedbush Securities

MEET THE HOSTS:

Dennis Dick

Twitter: https://twitter.com/TripleDTrader

Spencer Israel

Twitter: https://twitter.com/sjisrael

Joel Elconin

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Spus

https://www.premarketprep.com/

Disclaimer: All of the information, material, and/or content contained in this program is for informational purposes only. Investing in stocks, options, and futures is risky and not suitable for all investors. Please consult your own independent financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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Unedited Transcript

Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a vowel tile puppy here. Isn't it. And Dennis stick, I've been in the petty. I will buy the stock for a pet, everything that you need to start your trading day

to buy or not to buy. Is the question, whether TIS nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous tellers to take arms against a sea of troubles. That is what we're going to talk about today. Good morning, Walter Shakespeare this morning. That's impressive. I did not do well on any of the sh I never did you read the books, Joe Spencer, when you were in class and you're in your English class, you probably read all the books.

Then you Shakespeare books, mandatory Shakespeare books. I never read them. Did you, did you read them? Joel? Joel was no way read. Cliff notes, cliff. I bet just Spencer did read them though. Spencer probably enjoyed them too. Uh, some more than others, some more than others. Yeah. Anyway, Romeo and Juliet. And there was like Hamlet we had to read.

I didn't understand any of them. Like I couldn't, like, I obviously I'm not smart enough. I couldn't understand any of them. So I did not appreciate Shakespeare, but you know, what, if I did read them, I think Spencer just did a fantastic impression of Williams. Thank you. Thank you. Uh, yeah, my, my old pal bill, that is the question today to buy or not to buy.

If I can quote Joe from like 20 minutes ago, you said today is the most important day for the market ever. Uh, whether or not that's true is really, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, for debate. But, uh, we're going to talk about, uh, yesterday, the sell off the overnight rally, what it means going forward to what you should do.

Today, we have a couple of individual headlines, micron, et cetera, but the overall market will be the theme of the day. Joel kulina from Wedbush securities will be our guests at 8 35 a lot to get to before I throw it to Joel. And before I bring on Joel's charts, I just want to remind everyone that coming up next is the Benzinga small cap healthcare conference day.

One of two starts today, right after this show, we'll be joined right off the bat by mark charrettes and Paul from lifecycle funds. And we're talking to healthcare. We're talking to the sector, we're talking to individual stocks all day long, BZ, small cap.com. That's bring up my overlay. If I have it there, there it is.

Right. BZ, small cap.com winner for your Benzinga pro go to that website, check it out. That's going to come up right after this show hit that like button for Joel and his charts there on the screen. How are we doing this morning to sell into south shore, to sell or to self storage? That is, I agree with both.

That's what, that's, what I'm looking at. It might be too obvious, Adam though, you know, it really is like I woke up and this is, I hit the rally. This is a hiphop bed market for sure. Go ahead, Joel. I got up, I looked at my phone at like five 15 and we retreated over, uh, 43 70 and I, I just, I couldn't help myself.

And, uh, so I got up and hit a bid, no big deal. And I was in the pool by 5 35. Then hit the, hit the pool. Yeah. We caught a bid. We close, we caught a bid. We even see that closing price from yesterday 45 and a quarters of low. We got the 78 75 that much up here, folks. The other day high from yesterday was over 4,400.

So I'm just using this 78, 75 as a target for any longs. And if we get beyond that, I want not necessarily short net, but I'm not going long above that level. Crude down a 43 cents after making a new high for the move at 74 85 gold laboring at the 1750 area up $6, 17 43 50 silver laboring at the $22 level down 16 cents to 20 to 30 Bitcoin up nine 40 quiet old Bitcoin here at 42,540.

The theory seems kind of sleepy to here finding support $91 and 75 cents at 2,940. There's a look at some of your commodities and futures. Spencer, what do you got? You got some fancy graphics for us. What do you got? Uh, well, yeah, the graphics are back today after a, uh, unplanned absence yesterday. Uh, but let, let's just talk overall market here, right?

I mean, th that's that's the question. Um, you know, we, we had, you know, the headlines, you know, you've all seen them right. Worst day for the S and P since, uh, it was, it was in March. I'm losing track. Now there was a March or the NASDAQ was March. The SMP was may, um, uh, the Russell, even the, also even the whole year.

Okay. Then the market went down if the Russell went down. But, um, so what do you do here now? Cause if you come in overnight, as Georgia said, the S and P is, are higher. The futures, right. Futures are higher, kind of across the board. What do you do today? We just had a big old red day, not the first time we've had that in the last week, week and a half, but we, in the last time we did last Monday, We bought that dip.

Didn't we, the rest of the week we bought that dip. So now the question is, do we buy this dip or is this a sign of more self they've already? That was yesterday at the clothes buying the dip. I was yesterday's trade. So I would say, yeah, you're not buying a DEP you're up 25 handles. That's not the definition of a dip yesterday.

Yesterday was the depth. So coming in and chasing this dead cat bounce. Yes, I called it, I think is the wrong move. I think obvious Adam. Now, what did you say, obviously, Adam is an alliteration. What did you say? To sell or tell short. No, but Adam, you're saying that anyways. I think the obvious maybe it's wrong.

Cause it's just too obvious to solver. Can we just stop? And I just want to, this is going to bug me if I don't say anything. I think, I think we need to refrain from using the term dead cat bounce for anything that is not like an asset, that's going to zero, right? Like the dead cat being the key word there, right?

The market is not a dead cat. Uh, maybe neighbor the balance. You might think that the bounce this morning or overnight is, is stupid or, uh, a bounce to sell, but it's going to bother me anyway. I just don't think of the market. It can be called. Do you don't cats the matter where you throw on foam, they land on their feet.

Hey, that's an analogy for the market. I don't want to tell my story about dead. Lisa hates the story I have about that. Uh, put it this way. Coming to the end of the quarter tomorrow. Well, I'm going to reserve, you know, I mean, we're, we're holding the low from last week, bullish, uh, recommen through the end of the quarter.

Right. And. Quarterly numbers. Let's see where they come out. I think this is going to be the first time in a long time that, you know, when you look at the quarterly numbers, you know, where, you know, we're going to close right at or below, you know, my swing block before it, this is it. Definitely. We're a couple hundred points off the high.

We're a couple hundred points off the low. And I don't know, I just got this feeling about Q4. We've just made so many all-time highs and everything. I think it'll either just be a grinder or we might have a little bit of a correction. I think there's just too much overhang in the market for us to rip up another 200 handles and make a new all time high.

So I wasn't on the fence, but now I'm very convicted in my opinion, the sell the rip this morning. Spencer, can you please bring up my latest tweet that I just was putting together here in the background, watch who I was giving his bearish thesis. What, what are we looking at? What is this. We're looking at the Guinea pig indicator here, you pig indicator because the hamster indicator was all over CNBC yesterday.

So I have the Guinea pig indicator. So bring it up. We're waiting for it. Here it is. It's up. The Guinea pig indicator says, and you don't. I put the tweet out there too, but the Guinea pig indicator says, sell the rep, sell the rep. So I'm, this is not investment advice, but don't give us some advice on the show, but I'm of the opinion that the Guinea pig is smart.

I'm of the opinion that I think you sell a rep. This it's just that. Yeah, it's a body list. Guinea pig. It's just his head. He doesn't have a body weight. Is that your Guinea pig? It's uh, it's about. Oh, I didn't know. You guys had anyway. Okay. Moving on anyways. So that's so there you go. So that's, that's, that's the indicator right there.

The hamster indicator is gone. Now. It's now the Guinea pig indicator. Guinea pig says, sell the rep. I don't know if he's right or wrong. He might be wrong, but I side with him, Joel, I think you side with them too. So we now have three, three out of four Spencer's on the fence.

If you got caught yesterday and you were just averaging down, right. Frown in an average down in, and you get this kind of move here and it gets back to your average cost. You know, I don't know what everyone's individual positions are. The traders are what we have, but man, you're, I don't know if your stocks are going to get anywhere near yesterday's high, if they do, it's probably a pretty good sell and anything that your long.

If it could easily come down and test the clothes so easily, uh, apple up a buckle for gas couldn't come that could that come down on change, uh, Microsoft, which is getting pounded. What about that buyback? Are they going to have to increase the buyback in, uh, in Microsoft? All I know is Joel, the market is all about information.

And yesterday you ask us on the show and it's a tough call. It's like, okay, we got a dip do come in and buy it. You know what happens? We have new information and that new information was a serious flush. You caught a lot of traders early that were buying the dip and punish them all day. How many times.

And the first week of September and like Ryan Dietrich said, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rides. But how many times in early September, when we started selling off, do we get the flush flush during the day? And then the rally overnight, and then the flush during the day and the rally overnight and the flushed during the day and the rally over the night?

Well, yesterday we had the flush during the day and now we get the rally overnight. So I'm going with the trend is my friend. And that trend has been to sell the bounce the day after a big flush. And I'm going to go with that again. I don't have any stats to prove it, but select the perception. Maybe on my part says that I'm not a buyer of the 25 point rally here today.

Not at all. So just to clarify what he said, he, he said two things. He said he not a buyer of stocks and he's anything he's willing to trade today. He's looking to sell. That's selling out of stocks today. Like some stocks, I might dump it in my long-term portfolio. Now the long-term portfolio hat is not on there's no hat on.

I should have a hat on the hair is terrible, but the day trader hat is fully on. And the day trader hat is saying I'm selling and selling short into this rally. That's just my opinion. I might be wrong. I might be early, but I'm lightening up into this rally. If I was buying the tip yesterday on some stocks, which I did, I'd be turning around, sign them today.

All right. And now does that apply? I'm not sure how we stand in pre-market uh, well, okay. I just put it on Microsoft and I just saw, you know, uh, you know, we, we, we were off the pre-market highs there. So like, I know that, I know that the, the, the, the Fang stocks are all, we're all trading higher. I don't know what, if everything was getting higher this morning or not.

I imagine not for the, the banks are struggling. Okay. LT, you know, we, we've got this new market where the TLT is dictating the overall stock market move and the TLT rallied it's fizzling. You also have ever, ever grant. I think a lot of this rally this morning to Spencer just overall market talks probably ever grand.

They, you know, I don't know if you have the headline in front of you, but they did get some money. Well, there's another point. There's another payment due it's due Wednesday, but they got, they got some money overnight. They were selling some stock or selling something. I saw that and they were getting one and a half billion dollars.

So they got a little bit, the market tore off on that headline. It broke around seven 30. We repped five, six points right on that. So I don't have it in front of me either, but there's never a grand headline out there. We know evergreen was a start, but it's evergreen out of the woods here yet. I don't know anything about that.

I think it was just the scapegoat for the market sell off anyways, but technically speaking, I think I'm still solid. This is a good point for me, easy in the chat, someone to think about it, as well as the ease and the chat got easy. We've got easy money. Is that the same guy or they no easily. He's always there.

No, I is something to think about is the end of the quarter, the end of the quarter. Yes, yes, yes, yes. I know he said it I'm a, I think the boys are locking it and I think they were selling it danda last week. They're like, they want to secure their bonus for the year, then just, they're going to just ride off and you know, they're going to buy some safe stocks.

They're going to, they're going to go into like the Johnson and Johnson's and the Pfizers and a deep, boring, boring stocks for the end of the year. Like, um, that is a concern. If you're shorting stocks into the rally, you know, and I think I'm lightening up into the rally. And I think with my day trader hat, I'm not going up more than a day or two here, because you do have to consider that Thursday.

So tomorrow would be under the court. And that typically isn't a cleanup day. So maybe you're selling the rally and maybe you're buying the dip at the end of the day, if it F happens like that. And obviously we don't have a crystal ball. We are literally trying to call the tape here. Sometimes we do that sometimes we don't, but okay.

Outside day inside. Well, that's a bold call actually, because we had a violent candle yesterday. I think we do challenge yesterday as lows. We'll see what we do there. Typically when we say end of the quarter, when addressing. W what that typically means is you see some buying cars are all, you know, and the theory, the good stocks.

Well, that's the theory is that, uh, uh, you want to show your clients all the big, the big managers watch with the clients, look at all the good stocks that we own now. Um, but in this case, they're saying, they mean, John Dennis are saying the opposite, right. That Joel thinks that all these guys are going to walk in their profits today.

Tomorrow. I think they have been, I don't think it's just like a one day phenomenon. I think the salad that you saw at the end of last week, Friday, I think Monday was a real rug pool too. Right? The way we, we were up 10, 12 handles, and then we ended up all of a sudden we dropped 50 handles overnight.

What's the last time we had a 50 point break overnight. It didn't look as bad because you know, we are up 10 or 12. And that, I don't know if you're a money manager in your mind. You're looking at the chart. You're looking at the spider. You're looking at your returns. You're coming into the quarter. You have a fed.

Is there dropping like flies? Um, you know,

yes, I think so, man, I'm not going to go into this, but you know, you got a fed, doesn't know what they're doing. Uh don't know what they're doing. I'm going to give you that. And you know, and who knows, I'm not really worried about it. I've said this a thousand times interest rates. Okay. They're never going back.

I say 4%, 5% mathematically impossible. So, so it's, you know, so rates are going to go up a little bit, like does such, are you going to rush into, you know, bonds at one and a half percent? Well, I guess it's better than losing. Right. If the market starts to go down. So I don't know, we've always had the rotation.

We've always been selling this one, buying this, reselling this rebind, this, there could be a time where they just sell it may be sitting on cat and then your client calls and the market's down October. And you're like, well, you know, we're up 18.7% this year when we made 22%, we bought the bottom last year and I'm, you know, I'm just, let's just ride it out.

You don't, oh, you know, the market's not always going to rip up. It's not always going to crash what the market does most of the time is it just grinds? And I think we're coming up to a grind to lower period. Kathy look at . We haven't taught Kathy and given her some love in a while. Although I don't know if we've ever given her a love on this show, but a R K K that's a serious breakdown through support Joel and.

I mean, the Cathy indicator says a lot of these little growth stocks. Like it was a hammer, the high, multiple stock day yesterday. And some of the biggest winners that have been the biggest winners were some of the biggest losers, like a CrowdStrike that lost like 15 points yesterday. Some of these stocks that are just completely loved, not just picking on Kathy, because she doesn't own all of these, but she owns a lot of the high flyers.

They were handling those stuff. So I think you have a little bounce and today this a or K K sets up not bad now from, you know, the old support, a one 14 to one 15 becomes new resistance now. No, uh, not, well, I'm looking at this, I'm looking at the, go back to the a R a R K K. And I'm looking, I'm looking at the month lease here.

All right. So you're still holding above what the four month low. So you could still say that it, you know, it's holding support, but it's just hovering down there for too long. Where was that low? That monthly low when, um, Bobo 1 0 7 39. So you're hanging. You know, here, you should get chin chin 1 11 81. You took out a double bottom on a monthly and 1 13 40.

I mean this one 11, I mean, half it closed at 1 12 14. So yeah, we're trading up a little bit, but there's more downside. And if any of you, I may, maybe some of you did, did you bother to listen to the most informative half hour on the markets on tech stocks and growth tack and fanning yesterday, both gene Munster and Sean Udall.

They are like, there, there is no buying the dip in these growth tack right now. They don't want to buy the dip right now. Nope, Nope. Both of them even up to their eyeballs. So all they're saying is they're not buying more with their weight now. No, there. I don't want to give too much disclosure. You guys should've filled in, but they, the considerable amounts of cash and their weight.

And there's one sector that they're both really hot on. I'm not gonna tell you guys yet, because you should have tuned in yesterday. I gave you a hundred different times to tune in from one to one 30. I'm going to have, Wayno write up some articles on it, but yeah, very cautious on the Fang. Very cautious on a lot of these stocks.

And so they're there waiting to buy the dip, but we'll wait. And Chad mentioned this as well. I want to give Tim Clawson credit. Cause he did mention this on Monday's show when he was on a T plus two would be, would be today, right? Because if the last day of the quarter, no yesterday, because the last day of the quarter is tomorrow.

So he said that that could factor in here. People would want to get they're selling out of the. So their books are totally clear by the end of the quarter. Um, since you mentioned Kathy, but I brought up the, uh, daily arc, uh, email for the first time and what she, what she bought. I don't know. I, I haven't looked at this in over a month, but doesn't move stocks anymore.

So I get interested. I don't know what's new here. Uh, I see some competitor selling a 300,000 more than that. More than 300,000 shares of Tesla sold yesterday. Um, we know she's actively trading, so I don't know what's new here, full disclosure. I'm just bringing it up for the first time in awhile. Um, I see some success, uh, you know, she's still buying corn Bain, still buying Robin hood, um, culprits, the usual stuff.

He likes to be like stocks trading 50 times sales. Yeah. Hey, let's move on to micron here. Okay. Uh, this was the big earnings report from the after hours session yesterday. Uh, their earnings. It's not about that. It's about the guidance about the forward looking statements. And that was not what the street was expecting.

Again, the earnings for the prior quarter beat the sales beat, but the guidance was very light. They gave an earnings per share range for the current quarter of $2 to $2 and 20 cents versus an estimate of $2 and 61 cents per share. They gave a sales range of 7.4 to $7.8 billion versus an $8.6 billion estimate.

So they missed decidedly on both EPS and sales for the current quarter guidance and the stock got hit off. Bounced where it should bounce. Joel, that's the one good news. 60. You have a triple bottom if you're going back and you know where I'm walking there is this August and August at three loads, right in the same area called 69 bucks.

We'll round it. And we bounced right in that between 68 and 69 handles. So we bounced right where we should. That's your support? That's your critical support. I mean, the trend is not your friend here. It looks broken. It's been coming down, but overall, I mean, you've, you've had, you know, the stock is not expensive.

Again, we know this is cyclical. I've been burned with micron before saying yeah, it's trading five times earnings. It's good. And then, you know, the cyclicality to that business falls apart, this and their earnings come way down. So we know the earnings are very volatile with the stock like micron. Um, so you can't just say, oh yeah, that's trading five, six times earnings.

I want to buy it. Um, I kind of still, still do want to buy it, but I wouldn't want to own a below 68. I'd say 68 would be my stop-out. So again, if you're buying stocks, you always want to look at your risk, then your return. If I was buying this dip today, not that I am, cause I don't think I'm buying any dips today, but if I was, I'd be leaning on that 68 and a half low.

And uh, for me, uh, I've no interest in trying to buy this until it gets above 73, 10 and holds guilty until proven innocent. Yup, yup. Yup. Yup. That was closed from yesterday. It's just been whipping around. There was a bunch of lows in the 73 area, 70 to be 10 closed street, leaning the roadway while the market was going down yesterday.

So the buy, the dip is they're going to come in today. They're going to come in hand over fist. They're going to get this green on the session and then it's going to be a reset. So that's what I'm looking at in my chronic. Any other stock moving off this, this morning chip stocks, I imagine that's it. You know, my Crohn's like the last report we are literally like, we can't get close to the end of the quarter then right now, September 29th.

So we're ready to go onto the next quarter. We're looking ahead to the next quarter. So, um, you know, obviously there's other chips, lots of other chips, but I don't think there's much response here. No. All right. Well, let's move right along here. Um, here's one that I would, I think that sets a nicely for a cell loosen mode.

O L C I D Spencer stock that has gone. And this month has gone from 16 to like 20 well got to 28 the other day, but it got, got to 27. Got a 27 this morning from 16 to 27, this month off of news, that was already known that the news here that you're probably seeing today, or maybe you saw it yesterday. I don't know.

Uh, cause they had their production days. Yes, we have started production. We are going to actually have cars come off the line. We're going to deliver those cars to the customers that have already paid for them. And this is great news for us. This is not even new. They've said this they've said October deliveries, October production.

That's what they've said. They said deliveries to begin in late October. That was always kind of known, um, again from 16 to 24 and three weeks or I guess four weeks. So pat and this specific pop this morning up 5.75% is what Mr. Alcon was alluding to. This is from being the CEO being on CNBC. So CEO pops on CMBC stock rips from 24 and a half to 26.

During the interview, it's still holding onto those gains. I love fading. CNBC pops. It's one of the easiest strategies. Doesn't work a hundred percent of the time, but I pretty, I can say confidently, it works more than 50% of the time. So if your strategy works somewhere between 50 and a hundred percent of the time, it's a winning strategy.

Fading. CNBC pops is a winning strategy in the long run and buying. PR pops is a losing strategy in the long run on any individual stock. They can do anything. This is a storied stock. The stock could travel it. Hasn't given it back. So that's the one good thing is that it's been holding up for a long time since that interview at four 30 yesterday.

But again, this is the kind of stock where I'm not chasing it up and yeah, I'd be more inclined to celebrate. Let me just say this for the people that are really Bullard loose, so that's fine. Lucid. It could be the next Tesla. I have absolutely no idea if it is though, then the best thing that you could probably do is dollar dollar cost average the entire time, right?

Take emotion out of it. Say to yourself, I'm going to buy this sock. I'm going to buy whatever 50, a hundred shares every, every week or whatever every month we'll deal with it, whatever it is you want to do and do it every set period. If you really think it's tough, you really think it, then that's fine.

But don't that, that's how you do it. That's. That's how you, that's, how the best investors did test the back of the day. Right. They just DCA their way in it's scale their way. And that's what you should be doing too. If you love it. If you love, it has a market cap of $42 billion. So it better be the next test because you're paying for it.

You are paying for it. $42 billion. How many cars are they supposed to deliver? Oh, I'll tell you in October. Oh, okay. So they have 13,000 bookings, right? They don't have any sales yet. That's what that is. That's the stupidity of this market is just, it's a soft number, right? But this is the market we're in, it's a storied stock.

Um, it, a $41 billion. They're saying that this company is going to be better than Ford. And you know, it's a bad comparison. I did this comparison five years ago with Tesla and I got burned badly on it, but I mean for its Mark House 56. Lucid is 41 billion. So I don't know, you're saying that this company is basically going to be number two, you know, or whatever, and Evie, because they don't have anything else.

I think it's insane to pay $41 billion for lucid. That's just my opinion. I think people throw Fisker back in my face just before your point, Joel, people throw Fisker back and say, well, you're a long Fisker Fisker, Fiskars market cap is 4 billion. So, and they do have to deal with magnet. So I'm paying one 10th of the cost of lucid.

So that's, you know, if it's a $4 billion market cap, it's like, oh, okay, well there's some growth, 41 billion. They're already pricing and some serious sales. So that's a big market cap, man. That's a big market cap. You guys ready for my best Denis imitation ever episode. Ready? Are you ready? Okay. All right, go to, I know you want to show me why I'm doing this.

Go to the 4:00 AM. Pop. You have Kramer on, uh, the, the company's on Craver. You wake up at 4:00 AM, right? And you get a pop to 27 18 folks. If you're waking up at 4:00 AM and you're buying the cream renews, you're doing it wrong. You are absolutely doing it wrong. And that opened up right in, or it got right close to your today high, which was 27, 27.

So if you're out there, you might've missed it. Now you've leaked over a buck from that level. You're doing it wrong folks. If you're getting up and you're chasing stocks at 4:00 AM, now we've already leaked over a dollar, right? And you're going to have to check off the open. You're going to have to take out yesterday's high.

And now you're 50 cents off. So I'm looking at that as resistance and then the extra major, double important support is on that low from yesterday at 24 15. Once you crack that, you say hello to 22. So that was my dentist rant on. I have one more comment on this to comment or in the chat lucid is the next Ferrari.

I've upset some people in the chat. I think w w somebody in the chat, I said, lucid is the next Ferrari. So we, so that's okay. Okay. So let's say it is the next Ferrari stop. The next so Ferrari's market cap is, which is race awesome. Ticker something, by the way, it's 50, $53 billion loses 41. So it better be the next Ferrari because it almost has the same market campus Ferrari.

So there you go. So that's the upside, if you think it's the next Ferrari. Well, okay. It's got $10 billion with a market cap. It can go up 20% if it turns into the next. It's got $28 million worth of side. So you're talking to 18% right. About 18. If it's not the next Ferrari, it's going down a long way. So I think the risk reward, I might be wrong.

Maybe this is the next Tesla. Maybe it's going to have a $700 billion market cap, and it's going to be, everybody's going to be driving lucid or whatever the hell area they're called when I'm in mine. When I move into my bed averse. Okay. I'm just going to, I'm not, I'm not going to have a car. I don't care about electric cars.

I'm just going to put on my virtual reality glasses and I'm going to say, I need to go to the store. And then, uh, you know, a driverless car, I don't know who's going to make it is going to show up at the front door, you know, and they're going to take me there and then I'll do my, and it will wait for me.

And then it will take me home. I mean, I just, there's gotta be less cars on the road. Who's going to be making them. I don't know. But, uh, and Teslas, I want to get to this one on this stock real fast. And then we get Joel clean on from windows dollar tree. If you're seeing a trading off this morning, they added to their buyback this morning, they added a one over a little over a billion dollars to their buybacks, or just, it's been a record.

This shouldn't be a surprise, but it's been a record year for buybacks across the board. Did you see the first dollar to your headline before the buyback further in your pro pricing? Yep. What combo store, what they're actually, um, increase their, their, their checking put dollars for you plus, Hey $1 enough.

So, so you got dollar tree Jack and prices too. You know, inflation got issues with a dollar trees. Look at it, going to $2.

You know what dollar tree has the power to pass these costs on though? I believe cause now they can just change the name to $2 tree and people like I go in there and get some for two bucks still. So you know what dollar tree actually still has the power to pass this through. They are going to do it.

What about. I think five o'clock has changed the name to 10 below or five above. Well it's it's like in New York where they have the 99 cent stores. We're linking bad Guinea pig in the kitchen. It's already up 10 handles gave his opinion 20 minutes ago. Guinea pigs. Good. I said dopey and Biggs folks. When we're talking on the show, that's not fair.

Yeah. We want to hit these beds and he gets done talking on the show now, just kidding. What a time to be alive. Uh, the, the Guinea pig is driving the market pig indicator, man, the anchors are winning because they have a pet turtle. It's the playoffs. Yeah. It's going to make the plot. I don't want to talk about it.

I don't want to jinx it. I don't want to talk about it. That's how much, I mean, baseball, I mean, baseball is for old people. And I'm old and I don't even, I don't, I couldn't really I'll wait the Dodgers. Right. The Dodgers got the best record, the giant, the giant state, but that's not there cause they're both going to be in it's 8 35.

Let's get Joel clean on a head. Save the show with Joel. Joel asked if his appearance on our show is going to mark the bottom. So let's ask Joel that question. Good morning. What's going on guys? Joel is the head of technology, immediate trade trading. I waited for securities. Joel, is your appearance on our show this morning?

The bottom. Why is it more of a joke? I think I was on ahead, immediate parents last Tuesday following the Monday blood. So I guess it's a trend, right? You know, uh, you know, cells, I guess that they're Guinea pigs, right? So the rip. Um, but no, I mean, you know, we, I feel like it's almost become a little bit of a broken record.

And, uh, with, with tech, I think coming out of labor day, you know, you really sort of see a shift in mentality and price action, as you said, rallies are really starting to be sold. Um, you know, and I think the epic apple ruling back on September 10th, as I say, was kind of the straw that broke the camel's back.

We know that these mega cap tech stocks did a lot of heavy lifting in late August, early September while, while the technicals and breadth was pretty terrible underneath. Um, and I think it's pretty telling, um, you know, oddly enough, you know, going back to last week and even yesterday, I mean, yesterday was one of the quietest sell-offs I can probably ever remember, especially with the NASDAQ dropping, you know, 280 basis points.

There was just no panic. I don't know if guys were positioned for that type of drawdown, but, you know, given the long list of names down, you know, anywhere from five to 8%, I don't know how you can be. You know, ready for that type of, uh, that type of move. Um, but it was all fairly orderly, which is the positive.

The negative is the tech technology sector is still facing the same myriad of headwinds, you know, coming out of a pandemic. These fit, these tailwinds are continuing to fade. You have rising yields. Um, and that's really the reality. And now they throw in the supply chain bottlenecks, which, which are clearly going to be a major talking point over the next six weeks, which clearly impacts tech.

And that's going to limit, that's gonna impact sales, which will probably trickle down to impact margins. Uh, to, to your point, Joel, I keep coming back to the last week when we spoke to, uh, three different people, uh, that all a trade or a work trade on the floor of the exchange. And they said that last Monday, the 20th was like just as orderly and non chaotic.

So off as one can have, it was just totally normal. And I can't get that into my head and, and seeing, keep remembering that and seeing what happened, Leah, the back half of last week. And it's hard for me to come in here and say, oh no, you know, and, and, and be, be that scared, honestly, it's, it's above my pay grade to go too in depth on it.

But I mean, market structure, it just, it it's a lot different than the market from old, right. We know retail's become a bigger, bigger percentage of the daily activity. Uh, quant, uh, is become a bigger part. ESG is obviously one of the most actively managed strategies out there as well. So there's a lot of different market structure is different.

And I don't know if that's leading to active managers, at least hedge funds, just activities down guys. Aren't turning over the books like they used to. They're trying not to overthink these one are these want need kind of 24 to 36 hour drops because the past few years, you know, this tape has told us if you overthink these near-term moves, you're probably going to be chasing the thing higher, you know, two to three days later, which is, you know, sad.

That's kind of the, I think that's what leads to kind of the, the, the, the more quiet sleepy activity that the day of the big, first initial move, you know, what's interesting, Joel is yesterday was, I don't even know the last time this has happened. And you observed this as well was the market was down yesterday, but you know, what was not down was the video game stocks, which I've been down all year.

It seems like. On a day when every most docs were down yesterday, Activision EA take two end of the green, talking about a plot twist. Well, and I'll talk to the video games, but also, also keep in mind, I think ethics side, you know, right. The Chinese have finished up 10 basis points as well. When was the last time you could point to NASDAQ being absolutely carried out and you have the video game stocks trading higher.

I think it's finally some maybe signs of supply exhaustion, subsiding of hate selling and maybe investors just kind of rotating, looking for names that have come a lot more, uh, attractive from a valuation standpoint, the metals haven't changed that much for the video games, right? Younger generations are still spending the bulk of their, uh, their free time, you know, playing in front of consoles and TVs.

Um, but yeah, so like Activision obviously was w w was one of the outperformers. They have the call of duty launches, November 5th, you know, EA has a FIFA 22 launch coming on this Friday, uh, also battlefield, uh, their next ballfield games going into beta on October 8th. So we also got a few positive, positive kind of, uh, you know, talking points.

But again, it feels like, you know, winners were being sold and guys were looking for names that have kind of lagged significantly. And, uh, I think a few other names you can look fit in that camp would be names like MasterCard visa. Um, if you do see an uptick in consumer spend travel, I think, I think you want to be buying those, those type of names, you know, into the momentum, not trying to catch a falling knife, but you know, video games and an old school kind of legacy payment, credit card names.

They've been massive under-performance with. And I think you want to be buying them as they head up versus trying to catch the falling knife. So there's a chance that maybe if we were to keep, like, just say, if we were to keep selling off, there's a chance maybe based on yesterday that, that you see these, these stocks, these areas that have lagged, you know, outperform relative, which, yeah.

Interesting. That's the same as I play. If you're negative on tech and you need, but you need, it needs some long exposure. That's probably not a bad place to be. So you look at the video game stocks and obviously where you'd want to avoid the names you kind of, you guys discussed earlier, right. To kind of, uh, the Kathy would, you know, elevated multiple, you know, sky high valuation type of names and even sending.

So I still, like, I think semi fundamentals overall, still very healthy for the most part. Um, but you have to be a lot more selective with, within that complex. But I mean, yesterday, it's just like, regardless of what, of what the story was for any chip stock carried out. So I think you can, you can look within the semi space, look for the winners and kind of avoid names.

I like the name, like micron was just reported. Well, I was going to ask you about that next. I mean, so you, so you're, you're, you're just hands off my ground here. Yeah, I think so. I mean, the stock has underperformed the socks by 20% year to date, and that was coming. I was into the print. So, I mean, there's, there's really nothing telling you there that, that things are going to change anytime soon, they gave a very disappointing guide.

Their CapEx is going to be significantly elevated year over year. I think 20% managed was trying to put the bullish spin on that. But I can't remember a time where you're seeing elevated CapEx how's that not going to fall down and impact margins. And then also we know PCs are, are going through some issues, especially with given the lingering, not lingering, ongoing shortage, kind of, uh, you know, cluster, which is out there.

Um, but micron, I mean, I just don't see, you know, pricing's headed one way and that's lower and you have to think some of their bigger customers I hyperscale could be really licking their chops when it comes to next round of contract negotiations, the memory players don't have much, uh, have much bargaining power.

That's true. Ron align with Joel clean. I had a technology media trading at Wedbush securities. Uh, let's shift over to the media stocks here. Uh, Comcast, I mean, when a company comes out and says, Hey, you know, we don't have some good news. It goes down and it's continuing to go down. Uh, just looking at the media landscape here, Disney lowers subscriptions to me, there's just, there's just too much out there.

And I don't know if there's going to be any huge winners here. It's just, you know, I, I haven't looked data via comm and I haven't looked at all these different things, but, you know, I don't think I'm not cutting the cord anytime soon with Comcast. I love it. Every time I call it customer services, like, we love you.

You better customers is 1992, maybe their last subscriber, but you know what, every six months I call and I complain about my rates and they take them down. So I do have that. But, um, is it just like, it's not going to be any big winners in this? I mean, Disney struggling, Comcast is struggling. Like it's, to me, it's just like no big winners.

I like where you're heading with it. Your thought, right? I mean, it's, you know, I've mentioned it before and ages ago and I think, I think you're right. It's it's subscription fatigue. How many of the different subscriptions can, can people have? And I think younger generation. Are going to be able to be a lot more and more intelligent and more, I don't know what the word I'm looking for is, but, uh, you know, they're going to be able to hop around from sub to, you know, different platform on a monthly basis, keep control of what they're paying for every month.

That's the key, right. Um, you know, I actually just dropped HBO max up here because I want to watch something else on a different platform on FX, I think, you know, and so I think that's going to be the key. If you get to get used to kind of handling your subscriptions in a, in an intense. You know, economical, sensible manner.

That's the risk though, right. And that leads to elevated churn. So yeah. Disney Warren, you have Comcast or the commentary out of Goldman's commuter Copia conference last week overall was, was very negative. Um, you know, Disney and Comcast were probably two highlights, but I don't really can't point to anything that really stood out.

You have value guys trying to defend the likes of Viacom discovery. I mean, pull up those charts. I mean, we know they got caught up in the, in the Billy Wang or goes, blow up block, stock the buckle back in what feels like 18 years ago. I think it was February or March. You mentioned discovered. I mean, those Hawks stocks had not done anything for months and there was, again, nothing about that charts.

Tell me you need to go out, you need to own these stocks in your portfolio. I just don't see. What's going to change the narrative. And I'll be honest with you. If the stocks move and they're 20% higher in a week from now, there's going to be a real catalyst. That I'd rather be buying into the momentum.

It's time to buy something. That's been dead money for a vast majority of 2021, but you're right. Funny. I was going through the fangs, the Fang charts last a lot yesterday, and it's worth worth anyone just checking those out. Like obviously, you know, Amazon's, you know, a false breakout back in July, Facebook had pretty ugly puke below its hundred day.

Um, but then you look at, uh, look at Netflix with it's still within striking distance of all time highs. And so that's still your winner. Um, you know, even though they, they missed on subs back in July, the stocks come back with a vengeance and obviously they have a very strong second half slate. They had an event earlier this.

Talking up stranger things for a new Ozark series. I'm in the camp. I love Netflix. I mean, especially if you're a documentary type of guy, they have some good music stuff. I've been listening to a Skinner thing. Uh, you know, let it scan it a little bit this week yet. You know, I've got about 20 minutes a day where I can, I can kind of dip into a doc.

So I mean, Netflix is the clear winner and it's amazing. And then you remember Disney warned about not just subs, but, um, disruption development delays, which obviously is even more supportive for, for Netflix. And in terms of, you know, and, and Seinfeld's coming October 1st, that's going to help keep churn low.

That just helps keep your own churn. Very. Yeah, I think what, uh, actively, uh, canceling and re-upping your, your streaming subscriptions is going to be to this generation. What, uh, what, uh, playing credit cards for the points are to like our parents generation. Cause like, like my dad has like at any given time, like 15 credit cards, he's always canceling and adding new ones to, to, to get the points and the rewards and, and he's, he's got, and he's really into it.

That's like his hobby and our generation's worried about security. We are actually worried about security Owens, general diners club. Yeah. Yeah. My hobbies can be canceling or subscriptions if you cancel it, if you time it right. You can get a free week. And now when this new show is out. So, uh, yeah. Um, let me go to Netflix here.

I mean, how, how was there, I mean, how's their oversea, how's their expansion going? I mean, cause I see they better keep expanding. Right. And getting more customer base or they're just going to be forced to raise prices. I mean, is there going to be a point where, or is their content just so surprised that people are just going to keep paying up?

I mean, how much have they increased their prices? It's funny. The story goes in cycles and obviously, but I think right now, I mean, they're, they're pretty much the best position. I feel like they've been in a quite some time, they've been able to absorb all the recent pricing, uh, you know, hikes that they've put in over the last few years and there's still pricing power in the model.

Um, and, and, and I know what the sell side's been, you know, talking about this weekend. Is, uh, you know, continued, uh, you know, coming out with hits from the non non, uh, non-English, uh, original content. I haven't watched it yet. It looks a little creepy to me, but the squid game, I I've been meaning to get to that in trending number one, everywhere.

I think something like that. And even they come out then with like the untold untold series stories kind of program, and you have, uh, you know, all these little sports stories that people aren't really familiar with, which has been a hit, whether it's been, you know, the hockey one is, is ridiculous crime and penalties with the mob, that team and Derek, my brother-in-law was just telling me about that one last night.

It's on, it's on, it's on the bucket list now. I can't believe it actually happened, but it did. I never heard about it. Um, but you know, they keep on reinventing themselves with these, these other shows. And then, I mean, not so, but it's obviously it's, it's not a trade. Probably your audience is looking to do.

It's obviously become a relatively, a boring game. I think get dressed and take a look. Some of these Chinese internets, we've talked about them before me, along with every other fast winning guy out there has got their hand cut off. But again, I think you'll look at the relative out-performance yesterday in Chinese internets overnight, the big Chinese tech index only fell 80 basis points versus a NASDAQ, you know, falling 280 basis points the K webs up another 1% last I checked today.

So I think you're, you start seeing continued relative strength from these Chinese. I think that it's given us a clear signal, you know, start dipping in, maybe keep, keep tight stops. Um, but we know there's, long-term value there in Alibaba, Tencent. Um, again, this is regulatory cycles longer than anything we've seen before, out of Beijing.

Um, but companies are starting to fall in line and that's, that's the key, right? Joel, I want to buy more Ali Baba. I have a little piece in my portfolio. It's like at a six year low, I think is where it's approaching here from a valuation perspective. Looks very attractive, but I think, well, they're just like, so attack him.

I don't know, like, are the earnings going to start dropping, like, are their earnings numbers going to start going down because of, you know, what they're, you know, w what the communist China communist party is doing to the company? I feel like a lot of the negative and the downward pressure on the multiple and estimates has been priced into the stock at this level.

Um, you know, now we have some reports last week that the ant IPO may be back in the works as well. And I think, I think again, I think it comes down to Beijing has a goal, right? Like they obviously want their tech conglomerates to fall in line. And if you don't listen to Beijing and what we're we want to do, we're clearly going to punish you.

And they, their number one goal was punishing the west. And they've done that impressively to say the least, for sure. But again, like I don't 10 cents open up their platform to some of the competitors as well. You are starting to see signs that people are falling. I mean, I love to see Jack ma walking around, right.

That would be the big catalyst. So maybe look to 10 cent as a, as a better play. Cause he, I mean, who knows where, where Jack I can't, who knows where that guy is right now, Waldo, but I just can't help to think again. You looking at looking at the price action. They're making low, they're making higher lows.

That the regulatory headlines are subsiding. Obviously Evergreen's taken a lot of focus away from the tech, you know, onto the property, you know, uh, under the property bubble, which has been imploding. Um, but I think if you're looking for near term trades, um, unless you think the world is falling, China's already blown up, right?

These, these stocks have blown up. Um, could you imagine if our tech names drop 50% or whatever it was, and, uh, Shutter to think what would happen if that were to happen. But, uh, you don't come to Canada. That's what you do, I guess. Right? I mean, yeah. We know what we're, we're half Canadian right now. Um, on the shelf we should, like, we should get picked up by CBC because we actually were more than broadcasting corporate cause I'm half Canadian.

That's right. So, wow. So Spencer, you're the lone American here. I just want to ask you before we let you go, we're talking a lot about the end of the. And, uh, I know you're not talking to a bunch of pikers out there at a wet Bush. You're talking to some people that, that, you know, that have big, big holdings and it takes them a day or two or a week, you know, to move in and out of stocks.

I mean, what's our outlook for Q4. I mean, we had one hell of a year. We've had off the March lower. They just did just this Q4. They're just going to ride off into the sunset and make a new, all time high on Christmas Eve. Or do you feel a little bit of caution out there and the institutional client base?

I mean, it's been, I mean, a bit of bizarre year to say the least, right. And the bulk of my clients are, are long short hedge funds. And it's been an impossibly difficult year for alpha generation to say the least. I mean, you go to the Reddit, Reddit and implosion, and then you have Billy Wang and arcade ghosts blowing up, which has really impacted how guys use leverage.

Um, and then we've had the China, you know, regulatory assault, you know, out of Beijing, You know, and it blew up a lot of guys, you know, P and L's as well. And I think one of the biggest issue is that, is that these long short guys, especially they can't run these concentrated short books anymore. Um, there's just too much risk that amazingly just didn't exist, you know, 10 months ago.

Um, and so guys want this, this year to end. Um, it seems like the bulk of people are, are, you know, upload single digits since seems to be the norm, um, which is obviously traveling the benchmarks, uh, significantly. Um, so I mean, you know, that people want this year to end, but you said. I don't know, like we look at what are we seeing so far in September?

Right. We had the apple epic rolling, which kind of could end, you know, two of the biggest tech companies in the U S with apple and Google and the Android Android store. Um, you've had almost every airline in the world cut their guidance. You're, you know, had a slew of industrials come out and mourn on component shortages, rising costs, et cetera.

Microm last night, that could be the trend. So I think people want to wait. Almost to what the tone of earning season is going to be like. So I think we have to wait to probably the third or fourth week of October, you know, Netflix, I think kicks it off for tech on October 19th, but it's really the following week.

When you hear from the more important companies, apple alphabet, Microsoft, um, you know, the semiconductors across the board. So there's a lot of, uh, a lot of caution is, is to say to these guys are trying to avoid the blow up. And I think that's where you're seeing people, you know, position guys are just being a lot more nimble.

They're not trying to overtrade overthink things and let this year end and hopefully to greener pastures in 2022 Kaleena way, Bush securities were having way too much FOMO. We gotta let you go. Thanks a lot. Joel, always, always find. No, I take care. I got it. I got to tell the Leonard Skinner story now never told this one.

Okay. So, you know, the band that had scattered, they were named, it was named after their gym teacher, Leonard Skinner. You didn't know that. I thought it was the principal, but whatever principal, I thought it was a gym teacher anyways, uh, this is, I don't know how many years ago down in sea island, Georgia.

Uh, Lisa has a conference, my buddy IRA flies down and we're golfing while Lisa's at the conference. And we decided to go check out the town. And so we're in the town and we go to the Spire and Ronnie, uh, one of the van Sant brothers singing at a bar. Right. And he goes, I just want to give a shout out to Leonard, skip.

For showing up tonight and IRA and I turned around, we'd go to the back of the bar and there's this older heavyset guy with this big gray ponytail. And we go up to him and we go, oh man, we're, you know, we're so happy to meet you. And, uh, you know, look, what was it like being around those kids in high school?

And he looked at us, he goes, And then that was it. And I don't even think it was the principal. Wasn't the principal or the, you met the actual actual Leonard's and it was like pre cell phone. I mean, I'm probably not cell phone, but I probably had a bag in my car with a cell phone, so I couldn't do a, a selfie or anything with them, but yeah, I'm not the actual, wow.

So they're saying that the China wasn't Jim Petri apparently know one of my favorite bands of all time. Incredible bird we got, let's not, we'll get in trouble. Uh, five minutes before five minutes getting in trouble five minutes before you ended the show four minutes. Now take your time. Let's do, uh, here, uh, because I saw a few people mentioned a GRI, uh, G R E the report.com is getting a rating this morning from B.

They're giving it a, a actually, I don't even remember what they gave it, uh, by rating. Yeah. $76 price target. They gave it 76, 78 is the old support.com SPRT that did not move. And the reef is what it, was it a reverse split or something where they took most of your shares away. Because when we didn't like this on the show, one month ago, it was equivalent to $370.

And I said, I'd sell it. It's 30, 90% since I said, I just want to show up. I just want to show my think or swim chart, which I I've never seen this kind of a chart this pattern before, is this in the textbooks? This pattern? I, I don't quite know that's wrong chart though, because Jasmine and now I know, but it doesn't have the adjustment.

So you're missing the adjustment. It's literally trading at equivalent of like $3 or something where it was at 30. Alright.

Okay. Some of the little boutiques, like the Riley get a lot of, because they don't feel like they have as many conflicts of interest and you'd be shocked at how, and they cover some of the smaller stocks in these smaller boutique firms, but they can really move stocks. I mean, this is up 30% this morning because of this rating.

I'm a hundred percent. So I don't know what the thing was. 300 is the equivalent of it on the adjusted chart, which mine is adjusted. It was $375 a month ago. It's 30 bucks. Can I go to 40? Sure. Good. I don't know where it's going. This is too hard to trade. I tried to buy it last night when I saw the ratings come out and it was like, people were lifting 26 and I'm like, I'm not paying up 10%.

I should have paid up 10% for it. I knew it would move on it. I saw it, you know, somebody tweeted it out and then, you know, you see the rating and you're like, ah, 20 sex. Do I want to pay two bucks? 27 goes 28 goes and I'm like, okay, I should've bought 26, but $30. You know, I, I don't know. This thing could go anywhere.

I'm not even going to comment on at this point in time, I was a seller at $370. I'd still be a seller $370. Okay. I stand corrected. It's Dewey Cheatem and Howe not can we cheat them? Did you see what I put up on my upper on the upper right chart? No touch, no bias. No technical now does not deserve technical wizardry.

Do you want kinder Morgan? KMI other of you have thought dividends. Nice. When, if they still like dividends it's rallied up oil services. I mean, I don't know. I don't like oil stocks, so that's one, one reason not tone. Kinder Morgan, 6.3, 6%. Dividend is nice. It hasn't kept up with some of the others, but I think it's a more conservative play.

I like it, you know, from a technical basis, a little back. It's been moving though. We've had a big move. It's a big move. Relative strength on the same crude goes makes a new high for them. I mean, I know they're probably a little bit more diversified, uh, but, and they've just been around forever paying that fat dividend.

So, you know, buy down dip, styler costs, you know, DCA, DCA. It is Spencer coined a new term on wall street, DCA. That is so not a new term. Are you kidding me? Dollar costs. Average dollar cost. Average is not, but you would like to fancy, you know, steal, TCA it like you're so big. You guys, you guys. Okay. All right.

Be too hard on stuff, but I need to pull back. All right. We got to wrap it up guys. It's nine o'clock we've been hit on Fisker again again. Why do you guys get billion dollar market cap lucid $40 billion market. It's 10%. So Fisker is still speculative. Lucid they're pricing it like it is the next Ferrari.

If lucid was a $4 billion market cap, I might actually be long into my speculative portfolio, but it's not. It's 40 billion. It's 10 times more. Is it 10 times better than Fisker? We don't know. I mean, Fisker is still at least a speculative play when you're buying $40 billion companies. Is it going to 400 billion?

I don't know, but this could go to 40 billion and become lucid. I think there's a better chance of Fisker could go to 40 billion. Then lucid go to 400 billion and that would be the same thing. It'd be a thousand percent gainer capital Dennis. Call me if your phone's working, call me after your open. All right.

Okay. Everyone have a great rest of your day. Smash that like button, please. Let's get this. I don't, I haven't even looked at likes today, but, uh, I've been distracted. So hit that like button then, please remember that. All of the information from our show is meant to be used as informational purposes, not for investing or trading advice need Benzinga small cap health for Collins is alive or going live right now.

Right? When this show ends, the stream will redirect to that stream and you'll see, Brent, you'll see me and w will beyond and that's that's going to be it. So everyone have a good rest of your day. Go look at the open, stay green. See you ever. Healthcare conference.

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