How Bad Is Inflation? | CPI Data Release

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Market recapJPM EarningsDAL EarningsInflation dataApple cuts its iPhone forecast

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Unedited Transcript

Hey everyone, Spencer Israel here. Uh, before we start the show today, just want to tell you guys real quickly about today's sponsor. Um, everyone knows you can invest in alternative assets, real estate, gold, et cetera. We talk about that all the time on the show, but there's only one asset class that you've probably never heard of that has outpaced the S and P 500 by 174% from 1995 to 20 to 20, which is pretty great.

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coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a foul tile puppy here. Isn't it. And Dennis Dick I've been the penny. I will buy the stock for a Peck with everything that you need to start your trading day.

good morning, everybody happy Wednesday. Hope y'all having a good star to your day. Spencer. There is dammit. There is Joel. We got a lot going on today. I guess we can say earning season has begun with Delta airlines and JP Morgan reporting today. The rest of the banks report, we got to talk at apple though, probably off the, off the hopper today.

Apple headline out yesterday after hours, they have cut their iPhone production forecast. Why you know why there's not enough supply of components. They can't get components for their phones. We'll talk about that. We talk about inflation. Don't forget. Eight to 30 dentists go wide CPI out for September today at eight 30, we're going to go, we're going to be wide on eight 30 and we're going to talk about that number as well.

We'll take questions from our chat. Let's throw it to Joel. Let's bring tools, charts on. Good morning, have we bought or sold the rip yet? Oh man. We already in with it. The apple and, uh, Bullard, uh, talking about rates going up and, uh, but it was by the dip again, uh, rub 10 and three quarters handles it, uh, 43 51 50 only one relevant number on the upside.

And that would be the high from yesterday at 43 65. Uh, coming back on the downside here, CPA number, if they don't like it, maybe you see the close at 40, 75 crude, Poland back, uh, trying to stay in that $80 handle down 63 cents at 80 or one, our gold. We talked about it yesterday. It's having a good day up 1690 at 1776.

Sylvie, future's waking up to they're up 44 cents to 22.955 a Bitcoin Poland back. But Ooh, healthy. Look at that 55 K just standing there as support, uh, down 2 0 5, as I said at 55, 6, 10, 3 M's chest been quiet. Look at those tight little ranges. They're up 4 75 at 34 93 50. So, uh, earnings is finally here for JP Morgan.

We got apple news. We got a lot of stuff to cover. Triple D your head must have been on a swivel there with four 30. Yeah, it was crazy. I was, that was a good action. Yeah, but you know what a hit. So the apple iPhone news hit right at 4:00 PM and it's like, you see Spicer tank and you're like, And then I miss part of my closing hedge on spy, chorus.

You miss part of your head and it's never works in your favor when you miss the part of your hedge, it never works in your favor. And I miss shorting a bunch of spy on the clothes that I was supposed to shorts on unblocking stocks, and then spy starts tank and I'm like, oh, great. Never works in your favor.

So you that then you're trying to work it all out. But I mean, at the end of the day, um, you'll see apple it's come back here once again by the dips, come back. So give us the headline that broke right at four o'clock. This was a report that apple is likely to slash per their, uh, projected, uh, iPhone 13 production targets, uh, for this year, by as many as 10 million, they may produce as much as 10 million, fewer phones than they thought they were going to because of prolonged chip shortages.

This was a recording. I want to say it was Bloomberg. I got to be honest. I don't remember who, who broke it, but I think it was Bloomberg, but that was a headline right after the bell. Well, I will tell you, I am participating in that ship shortage because I have ordered my new iPhone, 12, many. I'm trying to get rid of this five, but it's been ordered here.

Now. They told me a couple of weeks. It has now been one month. So no call, no call from Rogers yet. We're waiting on my 12 mini to come in. The reason I went to many is because it was the identical size of the five. I don't want a bigger phone. Went to 12 mini. They said should be in, in a couple of weeks.

It's been one month. There was still nobody calling me to tell me my new phone. Isn't so again, that's, I'm participate. Uh, you had to quick drop and then the after hours, you know, goes off the board at 1 30, 9 50, and then just shrugged it off, opened a higher, uh, then at eight APM close, I look at yesterday's close 1 41 51 down to 77 cents.

Uh, that'd be, that'd be resistance for now. Coming back on the downside. You are below the low from yesterday. This. I do a pre-market low I'll use that as a target on the downside, but it doesn't feel like we're going to get down to 1 39, 26 sides, only a buck 30 away, but apple just selling off here and continuing to get hit with some bad news.

Losing lawsuits. Let's look at significantly off the lows. So not great news whatsoever. When you, you know, we've been talking about the auto is getting hair chips shortages. Now you've obviously got apple. We know maybe it wasn't completely unexpected, but we're bouncing back. And if you would've told me that apple was getting hit pretty hard and talking about chips, shortages, and obviously supply issues, then I would have thought that, okay, the whole NASDAQ's going to follow suit.

That is not happening. QQQ ripping higher, actually up more than the IWM, which I would not have expected. I would have expected rotation out of tech into, so, you know, the IWM because we've seen this rotation been happening over the course of last eight months today, everything is kind of ripping higher here.

So spies lagging a little bit. Uh, but overall, I mean, good day for QQQ considering Apple's not doing that well. And then if we jump into this, jump into the suppliers, the suppliers really aren't doing that well, and maybe we should take it there right now. So if you look at Skyworks down four bucks, look at AVG, oh, down four bucks.

Look, Cirrus logic. Cru S is down a buck here too. I mean, Qualcomm again, and it's got its own news is trading up, but it was trained down initially on it. But you see in the apple suppliers get dinged here, which they should. Uh, but. I'm impressed with how well the overall tech market's holding up, despite the apple news, a lot of phones, 10 million last, I mean, how many do they sell?

I mean, how many do they usually sell? I mean, it's a lot, but I'm one of those 10 million. The can't get, get me my phone waiting everybody. And the other thing that sort of has been made clear to me, I think it's obvious at this point, right. Is apple. And someone said this in the chat because they are like the supply chain Kings, right.

Them and Amazon apple kind of sets the tone for the entire technology into sucks sector. It's in terms of like supply chain, production, um, feeling right, like, like how good or bad, like w the industry's feeling about, about, uh, supply and demand is like apple kind of sets them. Because they're the largest tech company in the world.

Right? So for Amazon to come out and say, yeah, that's probably not what we thought it was going to be. You know, w we're not going to be able to produce the funds we want that probably ripples throughout the entire tech sector in the coming weeks. Y that's what you would think. Well, that's logic, Spencer using logic.

And that's what I would have thought last night. DQ is why, why does QQQ why is QQQ trading up a buck 60 here now this morning, despite having apple in there, what is the reason just to screw everybody had that has that thesis? Um, well, what's, what's the Facebook dude.

Every, every tech stock is trading up except the apple, but it wasn't that way. Last night they were all trading down and then separation happened. So I guess they don't think that the market thinks this is just an apple problem, which is absurd. So, I don't know. I think, pardon me would, thanks while you should be selling tech stocks into this rally here this morning.

Uh, which I've been saying for a while, you know, in a higher inflationary environment tech isn't going to do as well, but it's impressive. I'm actually impressed that QQQ is up here. I would thought it would be a QQQ massacre today on that headline. And that didn't not, that has not happened. So that's my thought process a bit.

I can't remember when, but did it, they have to cut per I mean, there's always been real bears or analyst comes out, but I can remember one distinct time. I dunno. Maybe it was I think you're right. Um, let me see here it dipped and then it just, it shrugged it off. I can't remember. I wish I can remember when now was, well, this is every stock, Joel, like every tech stock eventually shrugs off it's bad news.

Nobody's shrugs it off better than Oracle, which misses every single quarter and every single quarter, you come back to the stock three weeks later and the stocks got all the losses back and then another three weeks later, it's making new highs. And if you look at Oracle at all time, highs here, once again, full disclosure.

I am long Oracle in my long-term investment portfolio. I'm up above. Eight 900% I think in it now. So it's been a good long-term holding. Uh, but I mean, this is tech stocks, right? You know, everybody's just got the buy, the dip mentality, Cathy Woodbine and CRISPR last night, the buy the dip mentality in tech has been rampant forever for free for a decade.

And that content's continued to work. So, I mean, maybe that's just what it is too. Last night, you see apple down, people buying tech stocks on the dip and now they just get over excited and that are they actually buying it on the rip? I don't know. It's a difficult market to call here. I'll just say that.

I still think we're going to all time highs like Mr. Spencer Israel. Thanks. But I'd rather own IWM than QQQ right now. The idea IWM. I mean, you just look at tad. It is just the ranges. It's right in the middle of the range that you've had since February smack dab in the middle and the ranges are getting smaller too.

Uh, while we're only hitting hedges in the IWS. Then there is. And I mean, if you want the pure inflation, as we know you go commodity. So, and like I said, I bought, I bought more lumber stocks yesterday about steel on the pullback I'm in buying physical stuff. And I, I guess my best hedge is this house I'm building for inflation that's because I can't even keep up with it as I'm building the house.

So hopefully continues to inflate after it's built. But this is the market that we're in. Is it different this time? Like it is, or is it just eventually going to go back to a tack wins the day? You know, we, we don't care about inflation. We're just going to buy tech stocks and. That's the exact opposite of what we talked about yesterday.

I don't know. I'm not because I've been selling tax stocks, buying some, you know, like an obviously, you know, we know I own new core, but you know, I wanted to buy USD. I didn't get that. I did buy Cleveland class. I did buy it's called can for in Canada because I'm Canadian, but it's a big lumber lumber supplier, a big lumber, a stock in CFP and the TSC.

If you're following in Canada, I bought more of that yesterday. Um, I just think the physical, I want to own some physical stuff, so I've tried it and it depends why, how your position too. Right? I've been, my portfolio has been long tack and you know, too, too long tech for a long time. And it's worked really well.

I just look at my portfolio being like 40% tech, probably maybe 50% tech and thinking I want don't want to be quite as long tech right now. So I've been using tech rallies, which like we have today to lighten up some of the tech stocks. And it's not even it's sometimes it's just, you know, a re you know, the reallocation because the stocks have grown so much.

I don't think my portfolio started as like half tech, but it's just like, that's, what's grown the most. So you have all these stocks, like I said, you know, apple, if I add up, I'm on apple, I'm on Amazon. I'm not long Facebook. My mom, Microsoft, you know, you're a long Google and these things are just up so much that they start to take over your portfolio just as they've taken over a spot.

So, I mean, if you really are starting to get to. It's you got to lighten those things up a little bit and maybe reallocate to other sectors. And other sectors have been working in the banks have been working very well. We're going to get a CPI number, which is going to dictate what the next move is. And maybe that's a good segue into JP Morgan earnings could because it's next on the list.

But, um, and there's a lot of information coming, but if you're sitting all just tech stocks in your portfolio, I think you're reallocating. I think you're reallocating earnings per share this morning from JP Morgan, $3 74 cents. First, a $3 estimate revenue, um, slight beat as well. Uh, bad 30.4 bill versus a 29.8 million estimates.

So they beat on the top line revenue beat on the bottom line earnings. They released a little over $2 billion in credit reserves. Um, what else did they say? Um, Fueled that headlines in the Benz and GoPro, um, growth in advanced, in banking revenue up 45% total markets revenue were down 5%. That includes, I think, uh, uh, charged back or something.

Um, so I look at the headline says seem okay. And again, releasing credit reserves generally, uh, seen as bank earning seem to never matter that much. It's, you know, after a day they're forgotten and then they just all start moving together. I mean, I'm going to talk, relationship-based trading this Saturday, but the banks, you know, I pissed and trade all those things and what's that mean there's like 5, 6, 7 in the majors and they all moving up and down.

One's moving up, one's moving down at short, the one by the other. And they seem to bring themselves back in more often than not. Um, besides Wells Fargo, which has obviously been a perennial disappoint, or you bring those charts and you look at the banks, they all look similar. Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley are their own breed to a certain extent.

So I like to pair those two on their own because they were never pure banks. Like the others were. Uh, so a lot of other businesses, obviously in there, but JP Morgan, I don't know what to say on the charts on this. So wrote to Joel here, we had a breakdown the last couple of days ahead of the number. Now you get a little pop it.

We're going to get all the other banks tomorrow. We're going to bank of America, Citi Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo, Goldman on Friday. I mean, they're all coming. So we get, this is the first so far, so good. I'll say, but you never know what the bank's going to do until after nine 30, because sometimes what they do in the pre-market exact opposite, what's going to happen when the big money comes in.

I don't think they liked.

Uh, well, because I thought that it would, you know, you've had your move, you got a triple top at 1 71 50, which is huge. You got a double close at deal time closing I 1 70, 22, and you've had a two day break. And I would be taking that. If, you know, if they'd like this, they easily would take half of this glue back, get it to 1 68, 1 68 and a quarter hold in there for a couple of days and take a stab at a, you know, a new all-time high.

I mean, I just keep looking at this move and JP Morgan from 1 52 to 1 71 and a half in like two weeks, two and a half weeks, three weeks, it's digesting the move. I mean, if it's not. Bolt up and, and, you know, get momentum off a good earnings report. I dunno. I just don't they just looking at the chart, they sold it into the report.

It did hit 1 64. I dunno when knock it down to 1 64 and that report, but I would just, you know, there's no daily level, there there's no daily or anything. A 1 68 and a quarter. It just couldn't, that's my number, getting data out there and off the TLT. So you're going to see movement CPI number coming.

What's the TLT going to do TLT is trading slightly higher today. So far that typically is bad for the banks. There's an inverse relationship. There. Keep an eye on that up. The TLT stays strong. The banks could eventually roll over. So you have that fighting it right now is JP Morgan a pretty good report, but the DLT is higher, which would naturally want to bring the banks down a little bit, but that could all change after eight 30, when we get the CPR.

Right. And I mean, we're supposed to be having higher rates. And that said, that is, that is good for banks, but I mean, it's just incredible booth and, uh, it's digesting it and we'll see if, uh, you know, how it moves off the, uh, the CPI number. I mean, I guess we did have, we had the big move, uh, at the end of last year, right.

We went to a hundred, to 120, then we had another leg up, so on the monthly. So it certainly looks like it's still, it. Just based on those moves more room to go, but let's see how much it gets back today. Once laissez mentioned 1 68 and a quarter has been number for that, how the other banks reacting here right this morning, they all moved together.

So it's amazing. And I've said that before is even on earnings reports. So if I'm doing hedging, like let's just say for whatever, I want to take a stock through a report and it's, you know, look got a loose relationship with something like a ups, bad acts. It can do like I would, you have to do the laggard more than the leader with the banks almost can still do them until they just don't move around that much.

I mean, if it's a really disastrous report, JP Morgan's and be down, but bank of America, Citi group Morgan, saying all of them are going to be down with it too. So they're all trading slightly higher here on the JP Morgan. Good. But again, TLT probably weighs on that a little bit. Remember there's always more factors involved.

So with, if, if we didn't have the JP Morgan report, the banks would probably be slightly lower because the TLT is higher today. That number's relationship is very strong. So I think it's the JP Morgan report holding up the banks here this morning. But again, let's see what happens after eight 30. I think we should revisit the banks in 10 minutes.

Yep. A 21. Yeah. You got that number coming out at eight 30 in a way these numbers have been, I mean, they'd been having, I'm not even going to ask you what the estimates are because they just have been all over the place. Right? Well, I, yeah, I mean the, the, the standard, if I were at the fed, I would say, well, they have been going down on annualized basis.

Um, It's still pretty. I probably have to take away. So we'll go over that in a few minutes here. I'll let's pivot to the airlines for a second only because we've got Delta airlines importing this morning, EPS beat sales missed by a smidgen. Here's the headline though for me, the CEO says that they expect to see revenue get back to 2019 levels in 2023.

So another two years before the company gets back to the free COVID revenue that's to me is the big takeaway.

Um, the report was fine. I, again, if you're going to own a reopening trade, I'd much rather on the cruise lines. So I'm just going to stick with exactly what I said yesterday. Um, I think the airlines still going to have a tough cause I don't think business travels coming back ever to the way it was. So I'd rather on the cruise lines.

I think they're both moved together. I think the cruise lines are better, so I'll leave. Uh, and I'll just say right now, just, you know, based on the, uh, the pre-market trading and trading over the last two days, you hold 40 to 75 you'll turn and go up and maybe, uh, and maybe test that close in 43 54, uh, below 42, 75.

I'm not even going to pay much attention to that. 42 37. That's the other daily low I'd look closer to 42. So you got a technical setup. If you liked the, if you liked the report, you like to trade the gash in your open into a double bottom. See if it holds it just wouldn't want to hold onto it for dear life coming back on the upside, after being down then up, uh, keeping an eye on that close 43 50.

All right. It's 8 23. We got seven minutes before the CPI number. So let's just chill. We'll sit on that for a few minutes. And then at around, uh, 8 28 or so I imagine Dennis we'll want to, we'll want to hop off and, uh, let's go back in the body back central here. Yeah, we had my box last night. Bring up the chart of Qualcomm because it was trading down.

With the apple news. Initially, obviously the news we know, broke at 4:00 PM Eastern, um, for the apple news. And if you see Qualcomm did take a little bit of a hit, there can be down under 1 21 under one, I'm sorry, under 1 22. And then the headline breaks. I feel like around what, 4 45, 4 30, 10 30, $10 billion buyback, Qualcomm, huge buyback.

The stock just absolutely rips higher on every algo than algo trader. That seems like there's a million algo traders out there right now. They overshoot as they always do up to 1 26 and a half. It's kind of settled in 1 25 ish. It helps that apple has bounced back a little bit here as well. Um, huge buyback I'm long Qualcomm long-term portfolio.

Don't intend to trade it. Don't intend to do anything else with that. Um, it's it's it's been coming down. It's a nice snapback rally. It, these are the kind of stocks you want to own right now. I don't want. Um, I'm not selling it because I'm been in it for a long time and I'm just, you know, I need to stick with some core tech holdings.

Qualcomm is one of my core tech holdings, but I don't know if I'm buying it into the 2, 2 50 $3 pop that can get in another five, six bucks off this. I think it kind of prices priced at where it wants to be. Uh, you got some great monthly support. Um, if you, you know, if you choose to lean on the monthly levels, right.

Uh, coming right down here, then one $22 area. Look at that. You've hit that 1 22, 1 23 several times. So if you're leaning on it first swing trade, must hold the area. Maybe with looking at the monthly charts, when they decided to do their buyback. Did the negative here to be negative. Nelly is you haven't even taken out your two day high off.

This, this thing's been hit pretty hard. Pre-market high. The initial spike was the 20, 26 50. But I think if this thing is going to have some jets rally today, you should easily, easily get up to 1 27, 23. And that's, that's two bucks away from here. So they like it. It's up a couple bucks. I don't think they love it.

What is your, uh, what is your, obviously up from the close, your three-day close actually stopped dead in its tracks. It's three days close at 1 26 55 and boom. It hit 1 26, 50 and right back down. So street not getting super carried away with this one major resistance up at one 30, talking against my book here, because this isn't a long-term portfolio.

Um, I'm, I'm not that excited. It's a nice buyback. It's just this, this. Is this not in favor right now, some of these tech stocks, a smaller and this a big one, actually, obviously this is just not in favor. You can see the chart. So you got everybody caught back older, central. I think you saw. I think, I think we had it on for a trader using the rip to get out, but it only two, it's only up to box.

It's not up much on it. I would have liked to have seen a bigger pop. And then you have international paper, same thing, same story. They're doing a buyback as well. What's interesting about this one though. And when I read the headline, I was like, oh, dividend or a buyback and dividend raise. And then I looked at IP and it started going down and I'm like, why is IP going down?

And I went back to the headline. I was like, oh my goodness. It's not a buyback in a dividend raise. It's a dividend cut. So very rare. I don't think in 21 years, I've ever seen that buyback announced with a dividend cut completely. Cause obviously you can do two things. You know, if you're giving out money to shareholders and give them buyback, well, there's more, it can retain the earnings, but if you're giving the money back out, you give it out as dividends or buybacks.

Really. So. I look at it and think, wow, do you want to give some money back? I don't know why they're giving a dividend cut. It feels like they're not doing anything. I guess they just wanted to do a buyback. So they, I don't know, they're raising the money from the dividend cut or what, but very interesting.

I don't think I've ever seen that in 21 years and in the same headline where it's the out buyback and a dividend cut, but that's what we saw last night with IP. Uh, look at the pre-market action. It kind of, or excuse me, in the after hours, you gotta pop just over 56 40. Uh, but if I was lying in this stock, I'd be saying, man, I want to get this thing over 57.

I don't know if you know, if this news is obviously you're not going to do it right away trading at 55, 74. But man, I mean not one, not two, not three, not six but nine eyes at the $57 area, huge institution. I don't know if there are institutions. I don't know if they're moving off that number or not, but that's what you need to take.

Take out on the downside here. Yesterday's low. I mean, your lows have been coming up, so you've had higher lows. Uh, I'd use 55, 16 as a, as a potential. You know, if the market goes into decline and this goes into decline, but 57 really standing out to me and. And IP international paper. All right. It is LSU where to go.

It's 29, Joel Washington pull up some short-term charts, both short term here. Here's here's a situation for this CPI print. Okay. So the expectations for this morning are for CPR for the month of September to coming on an annualized basis at 5.3%, that will be a point of view percent a month or month 45, 40 3% annualized.

Uh, if we get that number, that would be the same as the prior month. That would be the same as August. Cause that's when we got the number is 5.3%. It will be a lower than July, which was 5.4. Um, and also, uh, in June, June we had, um, I believe we also 5.4%, uh, in June. Right? So it's hot. It's hot. Oh man. I, I, you know, I was so busy reading that I have taken my eyes off my other, I've only got three screens here, which I know seems like a lot, but it's really not.

When you're streaming a show, still staying within a couple of, oh, a couple point range here, uh, just got a pop 53 75. That stands as your current high. We're looking for to breach this. So it looks like it looks like a once in wine. Uh, I think if I didn't finish giving you the, uh, The, the, one of the estimates for like core CPI, which excludes food and energy, but that came in, in line at point at 4%, which is right where we were expecting.

Um, non-core is just regular CPI. All right. It was a smidge smidge hot 5.4%. So remember 5.3% was your estimate 5.4% was your actual, so we're basically back to where we were, where we were in June and July in terms of annualized inflation rate. So, so, okay. This is now like the, what did the fourth or fifth month in a row now that we've been over 5% on, on CPI.

So, you know, I, it's getting harder and harder to make the argument that inflation is transitory. So again, not only did the CPI number come in, uh, above the essay, but it came in above last month. Number, it actually came into higher than last month. Core CPI was in line. Um, But still, I mean, you know what I mean, the futures are moving here.

I dunno if there's something wrong with my stock quotes here or something. I mean, I see that future's ripping around pretty good, but it seems like people have yet to make their, maybe I'm looking at the wrong stocks. I'm looking at JP Morgan and that's not really moving off. This is hanging out at 1 66 30.

Uh, I got the good actions booze. You did make a new pre-market high by a buck. 53 75 went to 54, 75. We're really back where we started. I mean, I know looking at that, you know, my levels and looking at the charts here, I mean, we're stopping. I mean, this market is stock. You know, we had those inside days.

Last week, we broke out, it looked like we were ripping right back up to 4,500. They brought it in. We looked weak yesterday. You know, at least in the after hours, they couldn't filed through to the downside. I mean, this, I see the only way I can put in it's just this market is just stuck in the mud. Now you're getting some selling coming in just a little bit.

JP Morgan bumps up just to tad. Uh, now we're coming back. 43, 43, 43, 43, 75 was the spike. So this is the, the one minute bar you had. I'd be interesting to see if, uh, if triple D got some nuts, some trades off in this, because I just don't. I don't see, I don't see apple. Apple's moved a little bit lower.

Microsoft is still holding onto its gains. Uh, what else do we got here? Um, So it looks like the biggest reason for this surprise. Uh, if you can call it a surprise where at a point 0.1%, um, higher number than expected on an annualized rate, it was just energy. It was just fuel prices, right? It looks like everything else was pretty much accounted for that.

And that's not to say it's not high, but it's what the market was expecting. Right. So it looks like energy is just the, the, the culprit here. If you're going to call this a hot number, Which I guess, I guess you can. I did. I did initially, just because of the, you know, the reaction, um, you know, the concert, you know, the tail, T's just all just holding in here.

No, I mean, I thought we could get some more action today with, you know, the JP Morgan, uh, earnings and the CPI number. And I think participant, where were we at? Well, let me change this year to the 15 minute chart. I think we're, I think we're within a point and a half. Where were we? Uh, this is when the number I'd like to see where it actually started out the 8 30, 8 30.

Uh, we started out at 48 50. Now we're turning south. Uh, we're going to be testing the clothes here at 40 75. So I know we were surprised to see the market up with all the negative news. Now they're not liking the CPI. Now it looks like we're coming down the test, the clothes, and, uh, maybe the market's finally made up its mind.

I'm going to take that back energy. Actually. I don't think it was the problem. It was food. It was food cause energy. I'm looking now at the breakdown in the actual report and energy actually lessened on annualized rate inflation, uh, decreased from September or from August to September food, low increased.

Uh, if you look at food, um, CPI, uh, in food was, uh, for August was 0.4% and in September was 0.9%. So it looks like food is, is the culprit here. That's why if you take our food and take our energy. No. The number is, is, is, is normal, is what we were, what we were looking for. But food appears to have been the culprit here, uh, in September rising food prices.

So there's that. And again, now this is what, like the fifth month in a row, we've had a CPI about 5% on the annualized rates out, you know, it's, I could stomach the trends toward an argument for a month, for two months, for three months or maybe four months. But you know, we're getting to be on one five now, and it's, it's harder and harder to not like scoff at any transitory argument that the fed is making.

And I know that they've tried to come off that a little bit. I, I forgot. Was it bollard. It may have been somebody else who came in, came in the other day though and said, yeah, we think it's going to go longer than that. Then we thought, or we're not really sure. Um, yeah. I, um, my, my, my, my take a few months ago was I still kind of thought it would be transitory.

Um, it's just hard to know in the moment, but that was three, four months ago right now by now. So, I mean, it's it, I don't know. I mean, it it's, we're, we're still in the thick of it, whereas inflation hasn't really gone down. It actually went up from August to September. Now most of that was food, but that's, that's the way it is.

And the stocks aren't responding because the merch of the future is haven't picked a direction. Okay. So when you're chopping around, so if you're doing pre-market arbitrage between the indexes, which obviously is a lot of stocks that are thinner, you're not going to see a huge response to the stocks when you're seeing the index go like, oh, oh three, four down.

No, no, no. Okay. People aren't going to jump and start hitting the stocks, you know, for the most part, till they start to pick a direction here. So there's trying to pick a direction, but really it's been kind of a muted response. I mean, when you look at it, yeah. We've had a 10 point range off of it, but it could have, you know, some of these we've had a lot more violent ranges than that.

So it's been kind of actually we chopped, but it's been a, it's been a tight shop, really? So the market hasn't picked a direction. It almost looked like it wanted to go red there a minute ago and now we're bouncing again. So I, and the analyze it and you think, okay, it's a little bit of a hot number, but it's not completely, you know, you know, crazy.

Like we've had some of these numbers come, go, whoa. So, you know, we're a little bit above expectations. And I don't know, I didn't, I was listening to your food conversations. So I can't comment whether it's food or what it is, but it appears to have food has been the primary culprit. Anybody who is still preaching to you, that, you know, this inflation is transitory.

Isn't going to go just disappear in three months is one lying two or two. Doesn't know what they're talking about because it's not transitory. I mean, we are in the most inflationary period. We've seen the 30 years right now and I can, you know, you go in there and everything keeps going up, you know, and it's not just, you know, building costs and the case.

Let me know when you're building the house, but it's everything, you know, like we were talking the other day, used cars, you know, who makes money on a used car? So, I mean, yeah, you can blame the supply chain. You can blame a lot of things for it, but it's kind of like the perfect environment for inflation.

You have a consumer that has changed their mindset to a certain extent. You have a consumer that is paying for physical goods instead of experiences, because there's not as many people doing as many things as they were doing before. And people are liking spending money and having physical stuff and doing physical things.

So I, I think that, I think it sticks for a while. I think it's sticky. And that's why I keep saying it's about changing your portfolio to be better suited for the environment. And I think you're still looking, I'm still buying commodity type stocks on pullbacks. I'm still selling tech stocks on. And I think he continued to do that and tell the data starts to show that, you know, there's inflation is in check.

And I don't think it's going to get in check anytime soon, you know, gold once again, just, uh, just toying with the longs here, uh, got up to 17 78, 50. He got right near that high from a couple of days ago. And then back down now up only three 20. So your gold inflation had shot. Not working out, not working out big point.

Didn't move off that. Now. Now the spoos are feeling heavy, Dennis. It just feels like in this market. Yeah. I know you're getting people buying the depth, but I think the writ, I just, these rips here, it feels like the money is coming down. Like, you know, it's out there. The offers are out there. They're willing to sell that.

They're willing to buy the dips and stuff, but it feels like the offers are just coming down. And now we are going red here on the session. I, um, given back a lot of those games, we didn't get to yesterday's. Huh? We're we're now, uh, we're now in the red after that. So the market has made his decision that it doesn't like to CPI numbers, no mark.

That hasn't made any decision at all. I completely disagree with everything you just said. I think you're going to see a lot more shop. I don't think we can clearly say just because we dipped to the red, the market has made its decision. The market doesn't know what to do with this number. That's why I went off.

It went down to be in this environment. If you're full on bearish and you're selling in the hole, you're doing it wrong. I think I'm going to continue to be a broken record on this show for a very long time. And you've got to be buying depths and selling reps until further notice. In 2020, it was the buy the debt market.

And then hold, hold, hold, because they continue to go higher. And if you were selling the rips, you regretting it three days. I remember us saying that last year, Joel, it's like I sell a stock. I regret it three days later because the stock is. We are not in that market environment anymore. We are in a contrarion market.

This is, we haven't seen a full on country and market for a while. We saw a little glimpses of it in 20, 19, 20 18, before COVID started, there was some, you know, a few pauses in the big running bull market, right? We're in a contrarian market now where you're seeing just a lot of chop, a lot of no directional trades.

And if you're buying breakouts and you're selling breakdowns, you're probably doing it backwards too, because a lot of these are fake breakouts and fake breakdowns. So I think you continue to fade moves and that means selling the rep and buying the dip. I'll keep repeating it because it continues to work.

Oh, wait, I chat to asking them about used. So I'm looking at the report right now. Uh, I can go through by segment. The used car market is still absolutely bonkers insane on an annualized basis basis. We're still up 24.4% year over year, but the silver lining there is that we, the used car more inflation in used cars has actually gone down now, uh, 1, 2, 3 months.

So, so it is getting better, but it is still absolutely bonkers. If you look at it on, on the annualized basis. Um, I just want to go through the, go through the, the, the different segments here and tell you where, what segments are better or worse than the overall headline number. Again, 5.4% was the overall headline number for September.

Uh, what's better. And what's worse than that, right? And by worst, I mean, higher than that, a better, I mean, lower than that, um, food inflation overall is not, that is not as bad. It's 4.6% energy is, is still absolutely saying it's 24% annualized, um, used cars, obviously in St. I just said, uh, medical services are not as bad, only 0.9%, uh, annualized, um, transportation, not as bad, um, uh, peril, not as bad.

Uh, it's really just. And it's energy on an annualized basis that are just ripping our faces off right now. Um, so they've gotten better. Energy has gotten better the last couple of months, but, uh, same with used cars, but still just ripping our faces off. Um, that's where it's, that's where it's being felt the most probably.

Um, but there are segments that are, that are doing better than the average just, well, obviously, because it's an average number. So, um, just want to throw that out there. People were asking about used cars, used cars are still bonkers bonkers because they can't get the new ones. Yeah. Bonkers hot, but Hey, silver linings down three months in a row that was problems do fix ourselves.

If we do figure out the supply chain issues, you know, the used car market, isn't going to be as bonkers, obviously as it would be otherwise. So some of these problems I do believe do fix themselves. I don't think it can continue to see the inflation rate, maybe. Yeah. And, and certain parts of the economy that we've been seeing, we know building costs are just absolutely insane concrete, you know, maybe there's my builder telling me, but I've heard from multiple people is up like 50 to 60% year over year.

I mean, it's an insane number to think about. Like we've been giving, you know, the electrical, you know, a lot of love on this show with inflation. We've seen there, we've been giving the lumber, which has come back down to a certain extent, but you know, concrete, it's like so many things, but you know, it used cars is the thing that really blows me away.

And I think that does VIX itself once obviously, you know, GM and Ford put up the production and the curves that they want, but not having to have chip issues. I think you're going to start to see some of those problems fix themselves, but this mindset of rising prices is out there and there is businesses that problem.

I don't actually have the input inflation that other businesses have, but they can use that as an excuse to raise prices as well. So you're seeing a little bit of price gouging probably in that way happen as well. Uh, obviously this amount of inflation is not okay. Uh, to anyone who thinks I inflate any inflation is bad.

I would disagree. But this inflation to this extent is obviously not good. I was just trying to tell you what is better than the average, what is worse than the average to give you a feel for where, where the pain is being felt? The most it's being felt the most in used cars and energy. Um, and, and, and that's basically it used cars and energy right now is, are by far, those markets are just bonkers, but, um, Hey, getting a little bit better.

I'm trying to find the silver lining here. Um, it's 8 45. Let's talk about. Plug power and dollar power, uh, this morning, because I saw someone mentioned in the chat, we talked about it on the pre pre-market show, plug power cotton upgrade this morning, I forget who was, let me check right now. It was Morgan Stanley giving, giving a plug, a $40 price target.

So plugging Ballard are both willing to hire off of that and let's call it that chart. Look at that, run this Chad plug's been moving. Yeah. And you know what? Jim Kramer helps it along too. I mean, he had the CEO on plug power two, three days ago and people start, you know, it wasn't retail loved stocks when they see what's going on mad money.

That can be a catalyst as well. Obviously has been some news here too, but this plug power has really been popping. But again, if you're gonna come in and now it's of $4, five days ago, now it's 32. So you just saw a 30% rise in three. This is not the environment where the stocks that are going up 30% go up 50%.

It's more of the environment. Stocks go up 30% come back in 20%. And if I was just, you know, an obviously we don't have a crystal ball, we don't know anything, but I've been burned chasing moves in this market. A lot of times this is not the market chasing, definitely lean on up here except for the pre-market high.

It's at 30 to 65. And we're starting to leak off that level as we speak at 31 75. So the bull's got some lift and to do, if they could take that out, maybe I get a look at 33, 28, but just a, what a, what a great run this is had. And I mean, now you're common with the upgrade. I mean, all these people are very happy about that.

32 65 pre-market I use that as. Yeah, plugin, BDP, sorry, BDL. Because they moved together. All the PLD, both dyslexic today. What gives Spencer a break? Give me a break through his cover. We'll give him a break, Joe. We don't give any breaks COVID to a thing. He just like your eight might chop my head off. Cause I said, wow, mark lives a little bit weak here.

I don't know where the buy the dip though, is the dip at under 4,300 where all these lows are, you know, the Lowe's from last year, I think maybe a Target's on your stocks and you're looking at levels and you're using Joel Alcon and level analysis, which he's going to teach more of that on Saturday. He's actually going to teach you how to derive your level.

So it's a good segue to advertise our event. Once again, on Saturday morning at pre-market prep.com. But I mean, there are so many, you know, there's stocks that come into support and then the support olds, right? We talked about this AMD. Oh, just sitting there, sitting there, sitting there, and then all of a sudden it starts going off Robin hood 40.

We talked about the Robin hood 44, while this has been the, like the rocket Gibraltar, you know what, it's going to challenge it again. You think on like the seventh time, maybe it's going to take it out this time. But what I say is once they hold three times and you're making money by not that level, you do it every time until it breaks, because I wants to GE off a level.

I'm not kidding. I think 19 times in a row, it was back. Like, I dunno like a decade ago. And I, I bought it off this level and it was an intraday level, 19 times in a row before it broke. And I'm making money every time pick up 50 cents a buck, but by 50 cents a buck picking up 50 cents a buck and then eventually, and this was one, it was like a a hundred dollars stock.

Uh, but I mean a hundred dollars, a hundred dollars stock again, cause the reverse split. But here's Robin hood. If you've been buying this office 40, I think you continue to do it until you see a 39. And then you're like, okay, it's through it. That was fun. It was fun while it lasted, it continued to, you know, just get in there and sell a pocket in there and sell the pop.

The Robin is going to try 40 again. Maybe this is the time it's going to break it. But if in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, like eight times already, it hasn't broken 40. I'm not going to say it's going to be the time on the nighttime. That's actually going to break that. It means it's a solid level when a holds eight times in a row.

Uh, you know, uh, G got to said yesterday, he came. Yeah. Yeah. I think he thought I might be wrong. I think, I think you gave it. I think he gave it a $55 price target where, where we need to verify this check and you help us out. Well, the problem is, Joel has these dreams at night. He confuses dreams with reality.

Sometimes we have to verify, I'd say 80% of the time though. It is reality. So that's why it's worth it. Please help me out made Joe maybe referring to like, um, uh, uh, if he was on TV. Right. But yeah, I was, I saw it on CNBC. Um, I, you know, body language says, I'm not sure if you know what, I don't think that was new though.

I don't think that was new. He says you're right. Maddie says you're right. All right. Slow back says Joel's daydreaming again. So we don't know, we have one, one for Joel's right. Two, if you think Joel is daydreaming. So we're going to do a vote in the chat. If you think Joel is right on the two, so $55 price target and he didn't dream it up.

Put a one. If you think

you need to go ahead and buy lucid motors. You're lucid dreaming over here, man.

Voted that. You're dreaming to the tap. What to do with this. Here's what I think here's the thing I think Joel was right, but I think he was not a new price target. Okay. All right. Here we go. You guys. I just may pick on your draw. I'm sorry. I just may quit right now. I just may walk off. I may look at this.

Okay. What do you guys look at it? We see it. We see it was that from last year and what's the data continue

until you're not signed in. No, no, no. Joel, I I'm agreeing with you. I said, I think what you said is right, rather than a Barron's buddy, but it wasn't an, it wasn't a okay, fine. I thought I saw 55. Okay. There it is. There it is. You see it right there. Did you see it?

Okay. It looks like he is correct. Okay. Uh, Hey, let's, let's go back on the chat here. So I always ask him, I've always asked him about. Sorry, someone was asking about merch and you don't like your mom's going to come on down. I tried to send me a text right now. Stop picking on Joel. You're going to get grounded.

Well, you don't go anywhere before it doesn't make any promise for a year and a half. Yeah. Okay. What I need you to read because the balancing you, I lost your chart. So bring it back up and then let's, let's look at Merck. Okay. Merck, Merck has been Lincoln here. Let me get my charts back up here. Uh, the it's under 80 bucks now, right?

I was looking at it yesterday. Um, let me bring up, there we go. We got to get there. Wasn't another opportunity to sell the rep. We've talked about that day. I specifically said if this wasn't in my long-term portfolio, I'd be ringing the register on the sixth point rep it is starting to come back. I do believe it eventually fills the gap all the way down to $77.

Um, I think you're selling the rip on this thing. There's no rep here today, but I think thank you. I think it fills the gap talking completely against my buck because I'm on a portfolio. What, uh, what was interesting about it was it had those big opens and it had, you know, we're going back to four or five, six days and it had the reps and it had some higher moves, but it never, it would always close below the open and, and, you know, unhappy volumes.

So to me that indicates, yeah. Like, oh yeah, like the sellers were like, okay, yeah, open this puppy up. Yeah. Get it up higher. Cause I got stocked that I'd been sitting on since, uh, you know, $2 and 18, you know, and 55 60, and this is just a dream. So, uh, it's filling the gap assist just slowly slow here slowly.

Uh, as the P is back to an unchanged again at 40, 75 shopping around, but there's 43, 30 and 43 40 handle. We have been seeing a lot of that. Shop. It was the same word we use last week. It was the same word we use last month. Chop, chop. It could be that, you know what? It could be that for a long time. I mean, we don't necessarily have to rip back to do all time highs and we don't, I don't, and we don't necessarily have to, you don't have to take out the lows from last week and, and go down.

You know, the market has a lot of periods where it just does nothing. And shear feels like rain that now who knows how long it will persist, throw your trading fork away and start eating with trading chopsticks. That is my tip of the day. And my mother just said, stop picking on,

okay, let's talk. And we have five minutes, particular time Dre, Dre days asking us to look at Avis. I guess we should look at Amos because we're looking at car again and my car is inflation. It goes up every. This has been the, the sh like, it doesn't get any love about this short squeeze of short squeezes.

Anybody who shorted her car, thinking that while it's going to go the same way as Hertz has been absolutely annihilated. You don't want to talk about captain Kirk going to space it's Ava's budget. That's going to space as well. The stock goes up every day, ripping higher, another 10 bucks yesterday. I don't even think there's headlines.

It just goes, I don't know when it stops, but this has been a rocket ship. It will come back down to earth eventually about holy mackerel, never short of stock making new all-time highs. And you know what, when it broke out from a hunter, we talked about how breakouts haven't been working here is one that went up 50% in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 trading days.

That is absolutely nothing. Short of incredible. Wow. What, what a move in the stock. I'm so glad I'm not. Uh, for this one. Wow. It did have a big range yesterday. I mean, the only tell me that a new, old time closing high by 10 bucks and the volume was pretty good too. One of the best volume days. And it had, so the high was right near, just keep track of those closes those old time closing highs right now it's 1 50, 3 39.

So, you know, maybe if it kinda starts to fail and will not hold that area, but close right near the high, I will tell you when the last time we traveled that line was really long to get, uh, an Avis. So they're doing it right. I'm not, I don't know what the person wants to once off this. If you have a target at 1 53 85 and then take your target, but this is a rocket ship.

Hey guys, I just want to jump in here right quick. About a week or so ago, we were looking at H T Z, Z. Look at it now. Hey, look at it now. Okay. This is off board. Just running started, starting to get a little run there. I don't buy anything. That's bankrupt though. I don't buy Dennis they're out there out of bankruptcy.

Okay. In any regard, it's not listed on the regular market. It's listed on the Amex. It's not even on the regular Amex. So that's on OTC, Amex, correct? Thin that stuff is wild. That stuff. Isn't not for me. Okay. Uh, but good call out Mitch. Hey, a couple more from the chat. Good. Couple more from the chat. And then we have some announcements to make.

Um, let's go with MasterCard here. I was doing, I think it's been stuck in a range, right? Copy in the middle. In the middle of nowhere. 360. Yeah. I need to clear three. Oh, that was real quick. I don't know. I mean it, off the low, it failed at 360. I mean, if you feel like this low or the move was, you know, that was it.

I mean, you can lean on that 3 35 62 currently trading at 3 45. I mean, David's asking us to look at Bitcoin. We looked at Bitcoin at the top of the show. I don't know it hasn't done anything since then. Really. It's just, you know, we're down a smidge for the day, but, um, we also have, uh, I'll do it. I could give you a level here and pick, I mean, it's, I mean, for the, the, the speed that it went up, it surely is not coming down very hard.

Uh, this is just the futures here, so I don't know what the 24 hour chart looks like on it, but for the futures 54 K I mean, as long as you stay above 50 4k, you got to be in the book. Okay. Couple of announcements. We gotta make quick. First, obviously, as Dennis mentioned earlier in the show, the, uh, Saturday pre-market prep, uh, three and a half hour webinar, this coming Saturday, uh, pre-market prep.com.

I'll put the, uh, the image up on the screen, uh, three and a half hours of Dennis, of Joel and Rob freeze and talking really go more in depth on their strategies and how they trade. If you want a teaser, you're like, well, I didn't, I didn't do the first one. I don't really know what to expect. Here's what you can get a teaser.

Okay. Two o'clock Eastern time today, Jay Dennis Joel, during their very first Twitter spaces on Dennis's Twitter account. I understand is that right? I've never done it before. So this could go very bad. You want to watch, if you don't want to watch me mess up a space. No, I think it's video too. No, it's not.

It's not exactly.

I'll put a link to the spaces. You can already generate links. I'll put a link in the chat there. It's in the chat right now. Two o'clock Eastern time. If you've never done spaces, I put in the chat, um, for those spaces, check it out. I think they're great. Honestly. Uh, I, I probably check out spaces a couple of times a week basis is free today.

We're going to do you do, we'll talk a little bit of stocks. We're going to do a preview, obviously what we're going to talk about. It's not going to be a ton of education because we're going to save all the education, but we'll tell you what we're talking about and we'll do a little bit of stock talk as well.

On the Benzinga Twitter, I believe as well. I believe it's going to, I'm not a hundred percent, but anyways, I guess he got it right there. The link. Yeah, the link is right here in the chat link is three. The educational webinar on Saturday is $900. That's because we're putting a lot of work into it. We can't, I wish we could do everything for free all the time, but you know, it just doesn't work out that way.

We actually have some serious time and money put into, you know, when we're putting together educational webinars. So it's $99. I know some people say, oh, I get free education everywhere. I don't give free education anywhere. I don't give, like I give pre-market prep. I'll give you a little ideas. I give you stock ideas.

I don't sit there and do three and a half hours of education ever for free because I can't afford to do it for free. So, um, people have asked me for mentoring nonstop. I don't do mentoring for the simple reason is that I just it's tough because what can I, what do I charge for mentoring? I've always had this conversation.

I could sit there, but I've got family time. I'm trading full-time I don't have the time to do it. So for me to do mentoring, I would probably have to charge like $2,000 an hour and nobody would ever pay that. So that's why the webinar at nine, $9, you're going to get us for three hours. We group everybody together and there's lots of obviously education in there.

So I don't think $900. I think it's, I would've put it higher than that, but $99 is the price on Saturday. So you get what you pay for, if you're getting free education, I always say out there, and yes, we give a lot of good stuff on pre-market prep.com or we give a lot of stuff, you know, on the free market show, but we don't give this stuff on pre-market prep on the pre-market prep show.

So again, 2:00 PM Eastern time today Benzinga Twitter, Dennis's Twitter. The link is in the chat, but also put him on her pap.com. I'll put it up on the screen once again. Uh, on-site. There it is. Pre-market prep.com either you will be able to get the recording. And again, I know some people said that they didn't get the recording from the first one.

You just send us your email, email, Joel, Joel benzinga.com. And if you're on the list from the first one, you will, we still have the recording. We can send it out. So we have the first event recorded. This one will be recorded as well. You will get a recording. Um, so yeah, there you go. So if you can't be live and get the recording to, okay, Dennis, have a great rest of your day.

Second announcement I want to make is the Benzinga academy of Calibra conference is tomorrow. It actually kinda starts today. We're going to be airing our virtual track today 4:30 PM Eastern, but for the in-person stuff tomorrow and Friday, like today is the law. I mean, unless you want to risk showing up without a ticket and find one at the door, which may or may not work for you today is your last day to buy tickets for BZ cannabis.com to get your.

Today, um, we're going to be doing, it's weird. It's going to be a learning experience for us because it's our very first hybrid event. Right? We've done the in-person, we've done the virtual. We've never done both at the same time. That's what, that's what this is. It's going to be in-person. And then in a virtual event is going to be, uh, in-person stuff that is streamed.

Um, but that's all you get. You don't get the networking, the, the FaceTime, the one-on-one, that sort of thing. Um, Easy canvas.com to learn more about it. Who's going to be there tomorrow and Friday. Uh, that's going to be a wrap for us here. I'm going to end this show wive training with Benzinga with Mitch.

Ryan's you need starting right now. I'll be back on stream at around 10 20 or so. And then I'm going to run with David Green from 10 30 to two 11, uh, today. Uh, so I'll see you guys there, everyone. You know what I haven't asked for likes it's it's hard for me cause I'm not, I don't have my usual setup. I can't really see all, all that I want to see.

Right? 255 lecture. Now, can we get a 300 likes? I think we can. I mean, I'm doing this all from home streaming, from home. It ain't easy and I'm powering through for you all. So give me the 300 likes. I would appreciate that. Um, and yeah, please remember all the information from our showman to be used as informational purposes, not for investing or trading advice.

Once again, everyone masterworks.io. I put the link in the chat at the top and put the link in the description of this video. It's there. masterworks.io, check it out and invest in art without being a billionaire. You can do it. All right. That's a wrap here. Live trading starting right now. Everyone has to get the rest of your day.

Good luck out the open stayGreen. So you guys back on stream in like an hour.

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