Bitcoin Ban In China; What is Shrinkflation?

Episode Summary:

Bitcoin Ban In China?Nike Earnings NKECostco Earnings COST

Guests:

JC Parets, founder of AllStarCharts

https://get.allstarcharts.com/

JC Parets is a 15-year veteran and Chartered Market Technician who actively manages money incorporating Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance into his practice. JC’s work has been featured regularly on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, Business News Network, Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance among many other financial media outlets. All Star Charts was launched in 2010 as a blog meant to share technical analysis ideas, and over the years has expanded to options advice, events, a podcast, and even internationally with All Star Charts India.

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Dennis Dick

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Joel Elconin

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Unedited Transcript

Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a foul tile property here. Isn't it. And Dennis Dick I've been the penny. I will buy the stock for pet with everything that you need to start your trading day.

good morning, everybody happy Friday, Spencer Israel, join Alcon. Dennis stick is here, but he's in a fast market and his kids ready for school. So when the kids get off to school, Dennis will be back with us. I promise we got to talk about Bitcoin today. Uh, that will be the story of the day they are. The kids are off to school.

They're on the bus and Dennis's here, Dennis. Welcome. We, uh, thanks for joining us. So we're going to talk Bitcoin, we're going to talk Nike, we're going to talk Costco. We're going to talk some M and a. We're going to talk all of that with JC Perez at 8 35, he is from all star charts. We've been trying to get JC on this show for like a month.

We've had to reschedule. He had to go do a wine harvest he's back. So we'll get JC and JC technical thoughts on, uh, in a half hour from now, before I throw it to Joel quick, P S a next Tuesday. Right. Yes. The 28th Tuesday, Joel will be alive with gene monster and a mystery guest. One-to-one 30 pre-market prep.com.

Uh, here's a code for you already. I'm going to give you a code to access the debate. The code is PMP mystery, 28. I'll put it on the screen. Okay. I'll I'll S I'll I'll we'll literally spell it out for you. PMP mystery 28. That code will get you in on Tuesday. One-to-one 30 Joel with Jean and the mystery guests debating technology stocks.

Okay. Let's get to the charts though. Joel, how are we doing this? Under pressure, little David Bowie song here, song. Yeah, a little rally off, you know, last night, you know, trick Dennis going into that eight o'clock clothes. They floated, they couldn't take out that they missed a high from yesterday by four and a half handles.

And then I'm not sure if we got China or they didn't like the Nike earnings, but just kinda rolled though. And, uh, now we're down 22 handles at 44 16. We're just right in the area of last Friday's close. I was talking about that yesterday and we exceeded it by 25 handles. And when now we're back under it.

So important day for the market to see if we can at least end up green on the week, a crude spend some time over $73, a new high for the move today, but it's down 22 cents is 73 0 8 gold got shellacked yesterday, new low for the move, trying to rebound up about 20 17 51 silver in the red by 14 cents and 2253, uh, Bitcoin.

Under pressure heading towards that 40 K load to those lows at 40 K a down $3,600 41, 3 40. And the theories that's moving to sympathy. That's down 11%, $355 at a 28 40. Yeah. So maybe let's start with the overall market here. Um, Dennis, I'd be curious to get, to get your thoughts on the fact that we filled Friday's gap.

And then some actually I we've had a good rally. I mean, if you're coming in and buying it now, I said it yesterday. I thought you were doing it backwards and we tacked on more so again though, I think you're buying dips now too. So I'm always doing the same thing. We're in this shop and slop market.

You've got to buy the dips and sell the reps. Yesterday's rep to be sold, I guess, you know, obviously early yesterday, But are you getting a dip here this morning? So you got your shopping list and you go out and you do some shopping. The other stock I bought, I forgot was Jemiah. So I bought JMI three days ago around $19.

Went to 20, dip it back here today. So just looking at putting some more risk on just allocating around. I don't think evergreen is event. That's going to make us go into a bear market. I don't think we're going down 20%. We have a little 5% correction, the spy and they can't stop buying them. So you know what?

I think you're going to win your bet, Spencer. I think we're going to be making new highs by the end of the year, but I'm using the dips to buy today. They get a little dip. Maybe you do a little shopping, just indecision. I just think, you know, you had, uh, you know, you had that dip last Friday, the dip last Monday.

Tuesday, we were still lower, but it kind of felt like an update the Wednesday rep and then Thursday rep. And now, I don't know, I kind of feel like we're just maybe going to find some kind of trading range and it's going to be below the old time. Uh, and I don't know, maybe just above the 4,300 level, uh, maybe not even take out that low and just grind for a while until we decide what to do.

But, you know, we got through the fed meeting, uh, and two definitely today, rally got back more than half the move. Uh, what's the catalyst, you know, there's, you know, we keep getting a submarine by China and certain sectors. Uh, certain tech sectors are under, you know, a part of, you know, Facebook's under pressure.

So that's it, I'm looking for more of a trading range and more of a rip higher rep lower. Okay. I think, well, that's what we've been saying. You know, you're saying the exact same thing that we've been saying it's by the depth sell the rep we're in a trading range. There is, you know, really, you know, you look at IWM for the last year and it's a better indicator for the overall.

It's this range-bound and you know what? We just went from the bottom of the range four days go around to 14, up to 2 25. So I think now it gets tougher. And so I do think we're going to make new highs by the end of the year, but it's not going to be easy sailing. And we're not like, it's not like a bold call here at this point in time.

I mean, we're 2% off the highs. So, you know, two and a half percent here on spot. So it's not a bull call at all to say, we can make new highs. Are we going to go break out and have a 25% rally from here when nobody knows anything? But I think we just do more of the same. I think, you know, keep just trading because if you're putting stocks in and saying, yeah, this stocks going way up, take the gains when he got them, because you know what, it's just, the market will take them away from you if you don't take them, because that's what I've learned in this environment here.

It's not the environment that we're running 30, 40, 50%, and everything's just going awesome to environment or. Just chopping around and just moving around oscillating. So fade, trade winds in this environment. Yep. And that's basically what I said yesterday with Joel on the afternoon is like, uh, we're not going to get, I don't think we're gonna get an all time high as next week, but we're going to get on all time highs at some point Mayan.

So why not? Why not? Where is the money going to go? The Tina trade is probably the most important thing. Where are we going? Joel? Where are you putting money? You keep getting the cash and you're getting the shit kicked out of you by inflation. No, no, no, no. Hold on. I will tell you, we are all going to do the same thing today.

Ready? Let's all come in and collectively buy the different crypto. How about that? Uh, I might. Okay. I might, I'm not against it. China torpedo something else again. I mean, China is just at war with capital markets right now because they come in and they just torpedo a sector twice a week. You know, what have they done now?

Let's just go through the tail of the tape of China. Start from the beginning, how many stocks they started with their own stocks, obviously, D D you know, and maybe we'll start with Alli, Baba, Baba first, and look at Ali Baba. Like holy crap. I should've sold all that. I'm down in the stock. I bought it five years ago, watched them go to 150 to 300 it's back down to $147.

So I'm actually down in it now. I sold half of it. Thank goodness. Wish I would've sold it all. It's the only pure Chinese stock that I own. It's about 1% of my portfolio becoming less every day. And you know what I wish, I didn't know in any, I wish I didn't know anything overnight. It was Alibaba and Baidu there.

I feel like together and in both of those stocks, so Ali Baba is down 55% from the highs. Baidu is now. Let's go to those highs, which were over done way over done, but well, over 50% from the highs as well, significant. Right. So, so from there we've got a D D right. If Uber going in order, it might not be good.

Um, and actually, if you really want to start you, you could even say, well, let's start with, with the travel industry with COVID, but let's not go there. So, so D D um, then you've got, um, casinos and no, no, no. Then video stuff between them, then video games, video games, right? You can't play video games. Those are bad and casinos and casinos, but I should, I should point out if I say crypto today, we, we should point out that today is not the first time that China has come out negative on crypto actual crypto.

Nothing really has. I guess the only thing that's changed today is that the, the, the people's bank of China actually said that crypto transactions need to be banned. They haven't been banned yet. They're just saying they need to be banned. Uh, but we, we, we knew this, we knew that China didn't, didn't like crypto, that was against everything.

They're about role. I mean, this is taking way. So crypto is right at the heart of like, you can't control it. So of course they don't want, you know, they don't, they don't want their people transacting, crypto. They want to be able to control. They want the control. So thank you, Eddie Lee, we forgot education as well as education.

Absolutely hammer over there. Bring us a couple of those. Like T a L T a L. Look at this stock. You want to see a kid investment laugh out loud. 80, no. $90 in February Tao was $90 in February. It's four bucks. It's $4. So I don't know, down 90% you think it's probably going to zero. So when they go that far, but I don't know, like I can't touch them at this point in time.

EDU. Back in February $20 a share, it's a buck, 93. They have just torpedoed. So many sectors, man. So many sectors. Yeah. Serious and the sec and they don't come back. That's the one thing to consider too. We haven't seen like, oh yeah, they shrug off the China. You know, Baba never shrugged it off. Didi never shrugged it off.

The video game was really how much shrugged it off casinos really? Haven't shrugged out, maybe Crip it. We haven't seen a bounce. Like that's one thing to consider that the sectors they're torpedoing, Joel, to use your words, they've never come back. They don't come back. So I don't know, like, do you not buy the dip on stuff they're attacking, but maybe can we agree that crypto is a different beast than, than companies?

And I would think so. Right. I would hope so. I would hope so too, but it's serious. I mean, we'd be easily at all time highs if it wasn't for China, I mean, easily. What about it's the biggest risk out there because you don't know what they're going to do next lucky kitchen. Yeah. We're welcoming that wasn't there.

That was just, that was actually, actually, we look at that stock in the last couple of weeks. Haven't we it's L K C and Y know what's the ticker Ellen. Casey was just a scam though that wasn't the Chinese regulators fault. That's. It's so it's LPC LK. NCY it's actually not doing that bad, but anyway, um, yeah, so, so that's why crypto is down today.

You've all seen that news by now. I'm sure. Um, the futures Bitcoin down eight Ethereum down 11%. Um, I, as I said to Randy on the news desk, I guess we're buying more today. I guess that's the only thing we're going to do. I don't know. I might increase my crypto exposure. We'll see. But again, now I think about it when China starts attack and something, it doesn't seem to bounce back right away.

So maybe that makes me a little more hesitant. The third or fourth time this has happened now making new lows here, Dennis, or just kinda, just kind of still a slow leak from yesterday. We had pressure on the clothes on. I'm not sure how they popped it up to that. 51 50. What the heck time did they do that?

I'd must've been sleeping. I know I was sleeping. What is. Yeah, what time this just after midnight Chyna had orders out there, but where are we going? We're going to the inner day low from yesterday. Um, oh one and a quarter. So the battle for last Friday's closed is still on folks where we're a long ways from there though, 120 points above the low we set four days ago.

So there is some air below there's air above, but there's air below. So I think you got to pick your stock. You got to pick, you know, what, you know, and have your list, but just coming in and saying, okay, I spy this a detriment of buy. You might be right, but you know, where do you stop yourself out? We go 3 35 too.

I mean, we're still for 4 35. We're still well above that low from four days ago. So it was a hell of a ride. You know, yesterday was just way it was over done yesterday and then at the open, and then it kept running yesterday too. So the rally is way over done this, this, this dead cat bounce became an all, it got two thirds of it back.

So I think you're lightening up into the reps and nearby in the depths and just continue to do that until it doesn't work anymore. I know we sound like a broken record on this show, but you know what it's been working. So we're going to continue to repeat what is. Let's move on. Uh, if you guys want, and we can go to Nike here, uh, cause they reported earnings last night and uh, basically the theme of the report and the theme of the press con of the conference after on the analyst call was a supply chain problems.

And because of those supply chain problems, they did a war with their sales guidance a little bit, uh, prior to yesterday, their sales guidance for the year had been low double digit growth, low double digits. Growth year over year. Now it's more like mid, single digit percent growth year over year. This is for their state, their sales for the year.

So lowering their sales guidance. Um, and what they said was just all kinds of supply chain problems. That, that was basically my takeaway, the numbers. I mean, I'll give you the numbers if you guys want them. Uh, even though guidance is more important than earnings, uh, EPS came in, uh, 5 cents above the estimate.

Sales came in to smidge below the estimate, uh, comps were, uh, or I'm sorry. Uh, online sales were up 25% year over year, but it's all about that, that guidance while ring and supply chain problems and all sorts of stuff to talk about at the mom and, and factory closings and all, all kinds of things. But anyway, sales guidance lowered for the year is the bottom line.

Are these away anytime soon, these supply chain problems. I mean, some of this comes from China as well, does it not? Oh, yes. So, I mean, China is at war with the capital markets and probably are at war here. Like I wonder if some of this isn't starting to be intentional. Somehow some of these supply chains, I know that's all over the place and yes, demand is through the roof on a lot of different stuff, but it's everything like, you know, you talk about Nike.

I mean, I, I've got my next door neighbor at doing, you know, a renovation on their house. Same time we're doing our build. There've been waiting on vanities for like two months. Like they're ready to move in, but they have like, you know, they're waiting for fixtures, they're waiting for their vanities and it's like the stuff's on order.

And it just doesn't come in. It's the same thing with my apple, you know, iPhone, I distorted, they're like, well, we're projecting out three weeks. And they're like, we don't really know. I mean, it's crazy to think we're in this environment where we can't get stuff, you know, we've never, we never experienced this.

Not very often in north America. Do we experience. I want to buy something and there's just none of it to buy. Yeah. I can't tell. No. I mean, there's at workers. There's no room. I mean, what's going on. I mean, and I know California is always screwing things up, but, uh, throwing darts at California today and then California just broke off into the ocean.

I mean, it would be like a big win for our country. Okay. Strike that from the record. I have no idea. Take Florida while you're at it. Um, but I like Florida. Uh, no. I mean anyone who says that dykey is not in huge technical trouble here, then they don't know how to read charts. I mean, first of all, you had to gap a go off earnings.

And then the street just said, I want out of this stock. I do not want to be lost in this stock going into earnings and right. Boom. The street was right now. What do you do if you get into this gap? 1 50 40. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's gonna fill the gap. It's good. I don't know the exact path to it, but that was a ridiculous gap and held it, it tacked on another 35 points and it's just going to labor.

So I don't think you try and pick a bottom anywhere between here and 1 35 and the, the whole thing to Dennis's question about the supply chain problems and when it gets sorted out, th th this actually reminds me a little bit of, of, of COVID last year in that we, no one had really had any clue as to when it was going to end or when it was going to get better.

And it seems like we're just repeating the same thing where we, maybe we thought that this could be a temporary problem, or the supply chain problems are they'll get sorted out by the end of the year. Don't worry. Well, Nike is saying not so fast. It's going to take a little while longer to get. All these problems and it stems from labor shortages.

They're all, it's all connected. Right? It's all economics, everything is connected, right? Labor shortages here leads to delays there. You know what I mean? So sounds like what's what everyone is saying. If you just read the tea leaves is like, forget 20, 21. This is going to be a 20, 22 problem as well. I mean, yeah, it is.

Uh, as long as the food chains not disrupted, I'll be okay. Right? Yeah. Certain stuff you can't get in the stores too, though. You go into the grocery store and there some empty shelves on certain products too. It's not even, you know, there, there is food issues too. Like not saying we can't get food, but there is some stuff that is not on the shelves.

I mean, I, and, and again, you know, like we had issues even up here with suntan lotion this summer, I was like, I went in there and I was like the complete, I went in a couple of stores that was completely empty. The spray suntan. I like the. But there was like, it was all empty shells. I'm like, this is crazy.

I'm sure now it's not summer anymore. Who the hell wants sunscreen, but you can always get stuff and don't want no demand, anything that has increased demand right now. They're not able to meet the supplies is not able to meet it. So you have Jack up the demand just for seasonality too, like in sunscreen's case and it's trouble meeting the demand.

So it's an issue. It's an issue for sure, for a lot of companies. And, you know, you just got to start looking through when you, you know, you're looking at trying to predict these earnings reports and saying, Hey, you know, a company like Nike, I mean, some were predictable. Like Campbell's, it's predictable.

They were going to get, be getting squeezed. There are certain companies that are getting screwed. So, I mean, logic is winning in some of these cases. So in the case of Nike, you're thinking about it. Yeah. I mean, supply chain issues here, once again, stocks down, I supplied a supply that's I mean, that's not boding well for inflation, right?

That's supply higher to Spencer's right. With a labor shortage too. I mean, people aren't don't want to work for 15 bucks. They don't want to do these jobs for 15, 20 bucks an hour. And they shouldn't have to because, I mean, how do you, when prices are going up, and this is all stems back, you know, so we can say it's on China, but let's go back to the fed.

I mean, they're so scared to even taper. They've caused all these problems, you know, you can say, oh, Powell is doing a good job. Is he really, is he really? I mean, we've got, you know, interest rates that have been so low forever. The entire economy is built on debt, including the U S government where, you know, we've got to raise the debt ceiling every six months.

It's inevitable. The hole is so deep. There's no way to ever get out of it. So they're just keep hoping that they're just going to continue to dig the hole, because what else can you do when you're literally stuck in his holes a mile up and you have no way of ever climbing out of it, you just dig it and hope you find a way out through the bottom because, and that's what, you know, it all, it comes back to.

The fed it's been too easy. The money has been too easy. Now inflation is running rampant and it is the lies that they feed us. That it's 2% is an absolute joke. No one is saying no one is saying it's 2%. Okay. Go to my Twitter feed. What do you mean? No one is saying it's 2%. It's exactly what Powell said during his press conference.

Go to my Twitter feed. I took a picture of his comment, which was an absolute joke. Go to my Twitter feed. I have it up. I have rang it up from like, I don't tweet that off. And like four or five tweets ago, probably Powell forecasts show very modest overshoots of 2% inflation goal. That's what he said.

That's what he said right from the freaking press conference. Look at that. That's what he said from his mouth. Okay. That is a lie. That is just. It might be on their crappy indexes because they put TVs and garbage in there, but they don't include housing. They don't include energy. They don't include food in any of those numbers.

And that's the stuff where you really spending money on, you know, people are spending money on that stuff. The guy is just, you know, th th th if they, if they, if they honestly, aren't lying, then they're just the stupidest people on the planet, because you can go anywhere. And 2% is a joke. We are not running a 2%.

We're running at eight to 10% on all of our important stuff. It's significant. And this is why it's hard to think that the stock market is going to turn around and crash, because where do you put your money? If I'm sitting in cash, I'm getting crushed, right? So at least when you're in stocks or even crypto, at least you're keeping up so far with inflation, you know, as long as you're making eight, 10% on your money a year, at least you're keeping your purchasing power.

But if you're sitting in cash and cash, giving you like the TLT, you're going to go on the 20 year bond set for 1.4, 6%. Yes. You know, the bonds can continue to rise and you can get that extra return, but really you're buying 20 year bond at 1.4, 6%. I got to think you mentioned this bond market. Just epically collapses.

Well, oh, whoa. Okay. That I got to think that that was a leap there at the end. Yeah. I'm going and just saying eventually, you know, if you're jumping in and throwing all your money in a bond and a 20 year at 1.4, 6% eventually lose some money and it's worked because the yields have gone lower and we're saying negative yields and the bonds have went up in price because of that.

But you're not keeping up with inflation. I think eventually you don't want any of that stuff. I don't know where else you go. That's why I think it comes back to the equity markets. Why not? Barista? Uh, okay. If I can bring it back to Nike for a second. One of the reasons I liked to Nike earnings is because there was always mad sympathy plays to go off Nike.

Right? You can go under armor. You can go foot Walker, you can go Sketchers. Good ones. Yeah. There are more, I'm just, I only gave three Footlockers you're pure play. Obviously they sell a lot of Nike shoes. So Nike supply issues, it's like, oh, that's not good for foot locker. So, you know, so you go to foot locker and that's obviously going to spill over into that.

Lulu lemon is another one that does trade off sympathy with that. But Footlocker has been, you know, a little more in the gutter than Nike for awhile here. We've topped out back in March. We are now 64 down to 50. You're talking 15 points on 65, 20, 20 5% off the highs. So it is a pullback and my jumping and Footlocker though, when there's supply issues coming on from one of their major footprint for our shoe producers, it's.

So, I don't know where the trend is likely to. I think we're going to bring JC on, we know JC don't like down trends, this Footlocker clearly in a downtrend here right now. Just little, little lamb in here. If you want to, you know, if you're worried about this, look at that, just perched up and kept up at all time.

Highs and Holden bill big D I don't know if your girlfriend sold their stock yet, but metal, man. I mean, here you are new all time eyes hanging out, down to 91 sympathy. Um, we had, uh, I mean, under Armour really doesn't go anywhere. What's that? What's a more liquid one. You a, they were both very liquid. I thought that both it's a nice, you know, and obviously we talked to your class arbitrage.

I talked to in our last webinar that we did our, an educational event. We'll talk a little bit more about it in October and a better educational. Um, they're both very liquid UAA. UAA are nice to nice to trade against each other. Obviously the two stocks track each other perfectly. I mean, this is a stock that has been in the gutter for years.

It's trying to show some light, but supply, if you've got supply chain issues going through Nike, you've probably got supply chain issues going to hit under armor too eventually. So this is, you know, a stock where, you know, it, could it be potentially that they say something, when does EIA report, do they report coming up or did they already, they're already out there.

They're already out. So we won't hear about them for two and a half months then maybe four. But, uh, under Armour reported on the, uh, 20 on August 3rd, we reported. So they got another, you got another month. Yeah. Is there a supply issue is going to happen to these types of companies to pop. So, I, I don't wanna, I don't want to come in here and obviously we've got supply issues.

We know what they, they torpedo the stocks. It's not even sometimes the company's fault. They've got demand for the products I can't get. I mean, for a GM, you know, that was the biggest issue for them to the chips shortage. So it's that their fault. Not really, but they torpedoed the stocks for it. So I'm probably out on UA for now as well.

Dick's as well, which is also a sympathy play here. And it's training it's string down off this number. So we have my dicks to so many more things and just shut. Yeah. But it's the same, it's the same thing. It's the same problem. So I mean, why else things to think about? Yeah. Yeah. You know, one thing that really bothers me is, and I still can't figure it out on the Michigan football Jersey.

They bring it to Michigan. They have chorten. Do it, you know, doing his, like his, his basketball. I mean, what, what I, him understand that he was anti-D Detroit it's worth, tangently very disheartening. These are the things. These are the things that Joel thinks about at night when Joel can't sleep, he's thinking he thinks he thinks about Michigan sports though.

How, uh, how many times a day are you thinking about Michigan sports? Not as much as I used to.

I'm missing another whole. I only got into one home game so far. There's only been two. Okay. No, there's been three. Okay. Okay. Fine. Okay. Well, let's stick with the earnings theme and move on to Costco here. Um, numbers at a Costco it's sort of the same story, right? It it's, it's trying to understand the impacts of, of inflation and supply chain, but the takeaway for Costco, their earnings were, were good.

Their sales were good, uh, revenue up 17% year over year. That was a bit above estimates, uh, comms. We already got comms for, for we, we get them for at the beginning of every month, the previous month. So we already got the comps number that was strong for August. Um, membership, uh, fees were, uh, up 12%, a bit above estimates there, notably every single segment had double digit growth percent growth year over year.

So, um, there wasn't as much in this report about the effects of inflation, um, or, or even supply chain problems as there. But it was a, it was all in all a good report, but, but I think the stuff, I think the market doesn't know what to think of. It, it's so many things to buy Costco though. Like you got to think, you know, Nike and think about it.

There's mainly sound's shoes. Like how much their money just comes from. Shoes, Costco selling everything, everything there isn't one sector that's going to be like, oh yeah, we get 40% of our revenue from this. So it's a different issue that just sounded a lot different stuff. So, you know, it's not, and I don't know, like I didn't read the Nike report to say specifically what it was in the supply chain, but when you have, you know, one main product, which, you know, I've got to think that it's shoes.

I don't, you know, I know they sell a lot of their stuff too, but I got to think the main product is shoes. It's a completely different animal than a company that sells a million different products. So obviously you might have individual supply chain issues on some products. They just put other stuff on the shelves at Costco.

I'm going to give you like a long term number. And it's going to be good for today. And also just like I said, longer-term, what's going on at 4 56. I mean, you did have the spike above that on the print, your last three sessions, highs have surrounded that area. And now someone's there right now trying to sell.

And it's basically an area of the triple top kind of in the middle of the training range here. So this gets above 4 56, hold go test the top of the trading range. Just feels like someone has a lot of stock there to go at 4 56 and then not too worried about the downside here. Mondays low, nicely coincided Mondays low at 46 62 that coincided with three other lows, right at the 46 75 area.

So decision time for Costco, can we bust out 4 56? And we're quite a ways away from that though, but that's where I get concerned for more downside in Costco, the mentioned dispenser. I mean, that's the only place where you go, you shout out four or 500 bucks, you know, dollar hotdog at the end of it. And you can leave with a smile.

The hot dogs are smaller now. Joel what the fed doesn't track to a product size. It's truly the way they've been inflating prices for a decade is, oh yeah. You know, it's the same thing, Joel. You're exactly right. Everything has gotten smaller. We've talked about this on the show too. You see those Reese's peanut butter.

Look, I'll bring it back to like kill it or whatever. But do you see, um, Dennis, you're talking about one biters now you're talking to the wrong crowd with the races. Yeah. Okay. Well anyway, so you guys don't see it, but the chat sees that. I mean, there are so many things that have gotten significantly smaller yet.

They don't say, oh, so if you can't bring up the price 10%, then you decrease the product size 10%. That's 10% inflation. That's not tracked. I mean, jams not tracked. James has got it. It's true. That's shrink inflation in a nutshell right there. And it's true. I mean, there's a lot of conspiracy theories. This isn't even a conspiracy theory.

This is a fact that the crap today, Joel you're agree. The hot dogs, everything gets smaller. Everything has gotten smaller. You got rid of the oven. You know, and decide, oh, that's valid, but yeah, because of COVID, you know, you used to be able to grind the onions, but you know what, this is not that buy it that often, but, uh, it it's kosher bacon.

They, you know, they used to have those bacon packs. I don't, I, we got it last time and it's horrible. I'm never buying, I don't know where they're getting their quality from, but, uh, I'm done with it. No oven grinder, I don't know. And also some other things you could just see you open it up. You're like, wow.

I can't believe how small that is. So, yeah, that's another thing I was also reading this morning about there's like, I guess a shortage of, uh, of liquor and wine and spirits out there. Um, I, I read that this morning in all seriousness, our next guest can actually speak to that a little bit because he's, in addition to being the founder of all star charts and a massive.

Sharpness and technician, he, uh, is also, uh, a, uh, he also owns a winery and, uh, JC Perez is gonna join us now on pre-market prep. JC. Good morning. How are we, how, how how's, how's the harvest going? The wine harvest so far, we haven't screwed it up too bad. Okay. We actually, we actually got a picture of everyone, uh, of JC, uh, made a harvest here last week or the other week.

Oh, there it is. There we go. There, it is stepping on the grapes. All right. We got jokes. We got jokes. Uh, prostate yet. It's been sitting with the, uh, with the yeast. As of yesterday, the bricks were at 16. We picked it at 26 and we'll probably press it when it gets down to about one. Right? So the yeast converts the sugar into alcohol.

Okay. This guy knows everything. He's got this all figured out to makes his own wine. Mike looks like he's a Mike Tyson. PunchOut champion too. I love that picture behind you, man. Like that awesome joke. Like I was doing like this financial advisor thing, you know how financial advisors love being like, oh, everybody has a plan.

So you get punched in the mouth. So that was kind of like making fun of them and everybody loved this. I just left it. Awesome. Nice. That's one of the best video games ever made. They don't make them like that anymore, man. That game was awesome. No one makes video games anymore. Wow. Yeah. JC, I would love to get your thoughts on just general broad market.

Where do you think we're at right now? Where are you on the boast of barriers? Well, you know, I mean really since March, you know, we've been in the camp that we're in the midst of a major con consolidation, right? A down ingestion of gains, just classic year, two of a cycle behavior. So market peak there in the second week of February, it's just been breath deterioration ever since some stocks have been working, most stocks have not.

And the question was then, and still is how long is it going to take even then? And since now that we have more data, it's really just confirmed that thesis. It was always, this is just a consolidation within an ongoing uptrend, like all of those other year twos of cycles that will ultimately resolve higher and risk will be put on again, if you will.

And now that we have six more months of data or seven more months of data, We still feel that way. We feel more like that than ever before. So the question is how long is it going to take and, you know, listen, their stocks, making new highs. We're going to talk about some of the stocks we're buying here today.

Uh, but that doesn't change the fact that only some stocks are working and most stocks still are not. So we're looking for broth expansion. We're looking for an expansion to new highs, not the continued deterioration of new highs. You know, we're looking for an expansion of sectors and industry groups breaking out to new highs, not the deterioration that we've seen.

If anything, we've seen an expansion of breath internationally, um, which I think bodes really well. The fact that the breath data is better internationally than in the U S I think that's impressive. I mean, you're a spin. Impressive. You know, like we look at China, it hasn't been impressive, but Japan has been very impressed.

And obviously, yep. Yep. So, so you are seeing money still flow into international funds. It's just, you know, maybe the money is coming out of China and moving into those international funds. Maybe it doesn't want to come, but obviously China's had its own problems, but I mean, so, okay. So you talked about specific sectors, where are you looking?

Like, what do you, what do you see it, you like out there? Yeah. You know, I'd stay away from the new lows list, you know, when you see new lows.

It's true though. It's true though. That's JC man. He's at, and you know what? That's the best tip right there. Stay away. Just write on your wall. Right beside the Mike Tyson's punch-out picture, stay away from the new Lowe's Lowe's list is not where you should start your analysis when you're looking for lawns.

Right. Everybody does that. That's it, you don't, you don't see a lot of new lows in up trends. That's what I've seen in my, uh, in my day, you tend to see new highs. Right. So that's where we like to look. That's what we like to go fishing. Right? So software, right? I mean, it's hard to argue against software. Um, you know, the relative strength there is off the charts.

So names like Palentier, uh, names like, uh, uh, unity, software, tickers, monster, JC. Do you like, like in software, for example, do you like names that within a strong sector that have underperformed Pelletier is, has been a little bit of an performer compared to some other software names? Do you like names like that?

That are, that are maybe lagged their peers. Well, Palentier, as we speak is making new seven month highs at the amount of stocks that are making seven month highs. I haven't done that so far today, or I didn't do it all week. Actually, my argument is you're probably not going to find a lot of names that are making new seven month highs.

So by definition, that is relative strength, for sure not to mention that the risk versus reward is so well-defined because we're coming out of that base. So if Palentier is not above 28 bucks, you can't own it. Right. It's really that simple 28 is the line in the sand. You're about 28 all in baby. Let's go.

And what I like about Palentier is something similar to the phenomenon we saw in town. There are people who are choosing not to buy it for reasons that have nothing to do with profiting in the market. They think it's a scam, or they don't like the CEO or his political beliefs or whatever it is, you know, that's awesome.

That's great. The more people hate a stock for reasons that have nothing to do with the behavior of the stock, the more bullish it is, you know, Tesla 2.0, uh, JC, I want to ask you about this chart that you tweeted the other day. Uh, if you're you're on high beta right now, or, or the, the high beta low vol, um, uh, pair trade.

Can you explain this to us here? Okay. Well, I mean, there was a high beta chase, right? The entire time, right off the lows in 2020, it was a beta chase all the time. And in February high beta stopped out performing low volatility stocks, just like so many other things peaked. Right? So the new highs list peaked in fab in the second week of February biotechnology peaked in February emerging markets, the IPO index and NASDAQ advanced decline line.

I mean, I could go on and on and on. So many things peaked in February. That was the best things were. If you recall, that's when everybody had a SPAC, you know, everybody's making money, crypto ripping the whole thing that was the best things were. And since then it's been deterioration. You can obviously see it in the high beta versus low volatility ratio.

And then below we're looking at the value line. Which is going to give us the median stock price, right? So this is not an index that's driven by five mega caps. You know, like the S and P 500 or the NASDAQ. This really gives you a better idea of what the market is actually doing, which has been a big nothing burger for most of the year.

So if that high beta is real, cause we're making new multi-month highs relative to low volatility. My suspicion is the median or average stock will also start to do well. Remember, the average stock in the NASDAQ is down 27% right now, the median stock in the NASDAQ is down over 20%. So most stocks are in bear markets have been in bear markets.

The majority of names have been struggling for most of the year. I think this high beta low vol ratio can give us a heads up that perhaps that period has now come is now over. Yeah, crazy stat to think about though, where you've got the majority of stocks down 20, 25% have the Aspie, why sitting two and a half percent off the highs.

And everybody's sitting here waiting for a correction while you're saying is the corrections happen? And a lot of stocks are not even a correction. You're in a bear market and a lot of stocks correction for seven months. If you're waiting for a correction, where are you been, bro? Well tell CNBC because they tell me every day they bring out a money manager saying we got a 5% correction.

Kevin, we got a 10% correction. Alyssa comes on rather ran my head against the wall and watch basic cable television during the day.

The day. I don't understand how to do watch fucking basic television during the day, come home faster on that beep I have to pay people at the airport, people at the doctor's office, uh,

maybe give us a couple of names on your, you gave us Palentier. Uh, you gave us software. Do you have anything else that, that, that you like Etsy, baby Etsy? How bout two 10? That's the level four above two 10 in that, see, I like this baby long. I think it's got 50% of upside. Um, take a look at Yeti. Believe it or not a Yeti six is my level.

This is more consumer discretionary showing a ton of relative strength. This has nothing to do with fundamentals because the last I know about a company, the better it is as far as I'm concerned. But I do know about this one because I have a Yeti and it is fricking. Uh, and I feel like everybody, I know who has a Yeti also loves it.

Um, and man, they're expensive as hell. So they're doing something right. Stock looks great. It hasn't broken out just yet. Uh, so to be clear, we are looking at 106 bucks. If it's below 106, you leave it alone, stay patient, but we want to buy a breakout above 106. I think it's got 50% of upside, nice trade. And I love the relative.

It's been a quiet, well, I haven't looked at this one for a hot minute, but, uh, yeah, very nice. And Etsy was one that it got. So you mentioned going back to February, right? And then it got punished so hard, but to your point, JC it's it's it's compost on the way back. No supply chain issues and Etsy. Aye. Aye, aye.

And their basement. Yeah. JC, where are you on this whole inflation now? You know, when the fed fed doing a good job fed doing a bad job when you have inflation. So supply side issues. I mean, I can't wait for the answer. The day I start commenting on monetary policy. Just put me out of my misery. He sees lost it.

It's over. Take me out, you know, take me out and stick a fork in JC it's all over. I have no idea what the fed is doing, why they're doing it, why everybody's so concerned about it. That's all point. We're focused on price. As far as inflation goes. Again, those are economic implications that are incredibly lagging, right?

So if you're looking at inflationary data, instead of price, like it's the other way around, right? The price moves first. And then you see the inflation or the deflation or the disinflation or the stagflation, right. There's always some kind of relation. It seems sort of debate. And I just don't understand it because the flashings are the implications of price movements.

So why don't you just look at price and not worry about the fallacious? That's really the problem everybody's got inflation, right? Like freaking Oprah. You get a flashy, you get a place. You

look at commodity or B index closing at new check, my math, like seven year highs, eight year highs at two 20 or something like that on the CRB index. Take a look at the U S 10 year. Uh, the bond market is smart. I don't know if you heard, but if the us tenure yield is above 1.4%, the cyclicals I think are back, the banks are back, is going to break out.

You know, those things sound somewhat inflationary to me. And then just to get, you know, come back full circle. If you're one of these idiots that think gold is an inflation hedge, the market keeps proving that thesis incredibly wrong. Gold is just a hedge against making money. It seems like to me, there's so much truth.

There has been in the gutter here forever. I mean, yeah, we had a little break on 2020 from one 40 to one 60, but it's GLD has gone nowhere for a decade. Imagine you could have bought anything except precious metals. Amazing. Every, every idiot is making money except for the. Yeah, more or less. Um, I just had it.

Oh yeah. JC last thing before we let you go here, I would just want to, I would love to know where your head was at last Friday, last Thursday, last Friday, Monday, you know, we, we get a broad based correction and we hadn't, we hadn't gotten for awhile. I know you were talking about the individual stocks being in corrections, but the overall market hadn't really done that for awhile.

I just want to know like what you w what was going through your head on Friday, Monday? Were you in full just like dip buying mode or great picking mode? Yeah, no, actually, no. I mean, we have really been hands off, you know, individual names, things like that, but really, really neutral because a lot of important indexes and sectors like financials are below overhead supply industrials and materials.

Uh, even technology below overhead supplies for those really note transport is getting killed, but there's really no reason to be aggressively bullish, particularly to the broader markets. However, Since then I have been very impressed with the behavior this week, particularly from the cyclicals, particularly from interest rates on the bond market.

Um, you know, and the lack of defensive rotation also, right? You're just not seeing that bit in bonds or yen or precious metals. You're just not getting that defensive rotation. In fact, the strength that we've seen in financials and interest rates and high beta that's super impressive. So I have gone from, you know, neutral, be careful the world might not be coming to an end, but it doesn't really make a lot of sense to be aggressively bullish equities too.

Huh? Look at interest rates. Huh? You know, it looks like oil is going to break out above 76 soon. You know, all of these are very risk on that point, too, you know, a ripper into the end of the year. And then from a seasonality perspective, we're, we're coming to the end of that seasonally, bearish, uh, period.

It started, you know, six months ago or so, and we're almost done. So not that I'm like Mr. Seasonality or anything like that, but if the market's going to finally get going from a broad perspective, just mathematically, this would be a perfectly logical time for that to get them to get their mojo going.

That that's, that's what the seasonality says anyway, for, for the, for the end of the year. Uh, JC Perez is the founder of all star charts, guys, all star charts.com, uh, at, uh, all star charts, uh, on Twitter as well. Uh, great follow there. Uh, JC, uh, pleasure to have you on as always. I hope the harvest, uh, keeps going well for you.

Sorry about the confusion. Last time it got all hot as hell and Napa. So harvest was like three weeks before it was supposed to, so we pieced out, we went to Napa. What kind of wine farm life, bro. What, what kind of wine we're doing? Single vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon in Calistoga, Primo, Primo juice. This is arguably some of the best Cabernet on planet earth.

Okay, well, we'll check it out for ourselves. You got a guy. See you soon. Alright. Charts that you want to know about wine. You go to JC right there. I say, man, that's it. It's age. You guys it's eight 50 on a Friday. Let's do some taker time. Let's drop those tickers. And then there was a couple of things we didn't get to.

We didn't get to Meredith MDP. They, uh, there was a report in the journal that there, there may be taken and taken over by IAC. There was no price given, but I see it did say it would be, it would value, uh, MDP at more than two and a half billion dollars. They do. They take it to a two and a half billion dollar valuation immediately on the rumor.

I mean, this is this market in a nutshell, it's like, Oh, let's take it up 25% because that's a 25% premium. So better hope it goes through. Now, if you're buying it at 56, 10, because I don't even know how much premiums left in it. So I have no position in this. Would I be buying at 56 15 now bed? Absolutely not because I think the premium is all in there.

I think if it gets taken over, it goes out to 58 or 60. Maybe if it doesn't, it goes right back to 44. So it's a major, the risk set up here is now to the short side, unless there's another better that comes in or it's significantly above the 25% premium that the wall street journal projected because I just did the quick math $2 billion market cap close.

And you know, you're saying two and a half billion. Well that's 25% premium. It's up 25%. So they put it right on there right away. This is this market. It buys first ask questions later. I would not be buying this up 25% on it. Well, at least the comp I mean, the company says that they're talking about it.

So that's what it's wall street journal. It's legit. It's just like, okay, well we're going to buy for a 25% premium. Why are they buying it right away? I have the 25% premium. So it sounds absolutely overdone to me being buying. And for the entire thing, saying this deal is imminent. I don't sound, it doesn't sound eminent.

To me. It sounds like your talk. So I don't know, maybe, maybe it's going to be a 35% premium. Maybe the risk ARBs are speculating a lot higher, but it said in the article that there could be the potential for another buyer to, I did read it. I don't know who that would be though. Maybe some private equity.

I don't know. It's not like this. Isn't like this on fire industry here to Juul, all that, you know, I don't know. I think if you're along this stock, congratulations, great buy, ring the register and sell it. That's my opinion. I wouldn't stick around for the last couple of weeks. And cause if they solve a sudden pull the rug out from under this room where it could be back under 50 in a heartbeat, we've seen this happen time and time again in this buy first ask questions later, market where you get something ramped right up on a rumor and then the rumor doesn't materialize and the stock collapses.

So I think upsides two or three bucks, I think downside is 10 bucks. Not a good risk-reward ratio. Not at this point in time. It was a 44. Alright. Tickers from the chat. Uh, thank you to whoever reminded me about CCL. I always, I'm terrible. Always thinking they always sneak and it's always at like nine, 15 Eastern time.

It's always right before the open. So CCO is on the schedule to report earnings tonight. I'm sorry, this morning to report this morning. Uh, probably in like 20 minutes or so. So what's pulled that CCL chart, if we can. I mean, it had all kinds of resistance from 24 to 24 and a quarter let's call it. And, uh, it cleared that.

So as you know, I still like it holding 24 move to the upside. I mean, there's just spotty daily highs here, 25, 29. And then now they're high at 26, 28. I mean, I don't know how good of a quarter they can have, but, um, how many ships are still not? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know either. I don't know the answer to those questions.

Um, but you know, I, I mean, it's beat up, you know, these, this industry has been beat up eventually if we do get past COVID, it's going to be an industry that's on fire. Me and rise were saying that a year ago that eventually, you know, the cruise lines could be an industry that catches fire. I will say I would rather own a cruise line than an actual.

Because there's a lot of business travel happening on,

so if you're going to go one or the other, I think I'm, you know, I think cruise lines could eventually get back to where they were. I don't think airline is airlines are ever getting back to where they work because they lost so much business travel. There's not a lot of business travelers on cruise lines.

So I'd rather on the cruise lines and the airlines at this point in time, we're not knowing Delta. I don't know if I want to own any of them.

All right. Let's keep going. I guess we'll do some more thinkers in the chat here. Job, man, we got five minutes left. Well, let's look at, someone's going to ask him about AstraZeneca for a few days. Now. I keep seeing AZN that take the second and third day in a row. I've seen ACM in the chat and this doc. So you have a lot of health care stocks that have simply fallen off a cliff.

And if you luck and obviously, you know, you can go maybe away from the European ones that you, maybe it's a European thing. Cause the European stocks been hot. The Merck has come down. Significantly. Lilly has come down significantly. Pfizer has come down significantly from the highs. Um, you know, even at going over to GlaxoSmithKline, that's come off significantly and they know AstraZeneca is doing its own thing, make a new highs all the time.

JC would love the relative strength on the thing. I just look, you know, I'm a peer trader and I'm like, well, it scares me though. This has definitely been best of breed because it's still one of the only major pharmaceutical companies that continues to break out. So it's good. It's breakouts, but this isn't the environment that breakouts up and work either.

So I don't know if I'm paying up, I am a country and people saying I'm a natural contrarian. You know, I always happen, you know, but I like, you know, with JC, I like to buy stocks that are an uptrend, but I like to buy the dip in the uptrend. So, you know, so I'm a, contrarion within an overall trending environment.

I can say AstraZeneca is definitely trending higher. That's going for it. But what scares me is a lot of the other stocks in the sector haven't been. I have a little AstraZeneca thing from the mid fifties, I cannot remember the exact price really edit an important area. And this was, uh, the, the pop-up to 64 94.

Uh, that was on some COVID drug news. It didn't really pan out. Uh, but it's just been keeping an eye on 61 here. Uh, this monthly highest 60 93. This is 1, 2, 3, 4 months of trading action here. So a breakout over 61. Yeah, it's good. But definitely coming into a major, major area of resistance. I've got one that Mitch was talking about earlier about, uh, an hour or so ago.

Sony Sony is $3 away from a another 20 year high or 21 year. Excuse me, 21 year high. So, and why that changed the ticker on each? Oh yeah. Okay. This was so go back. The 20 year chart I had did not realize that Sony had not made any Walton. No, it's eight in February. That that's impressive. $3 away from that.

Go back to the long long-term church all. And I don't know how far he can go back, but I mean the monthly down here, how much farther do you want to go back? Well, he's saying that it was back in the financial in the dock and go back to the two thousands. See how high Sony was, you know, just again, showing you my 20 year gets caught on.

I got it. I got it. Got it. Almost. I got it. But still, yeah, they don't have the, uh, where it was in 2000. I, I got it. I got it. One second. I got Spencer's got it. And bring it up. He bought in the year, 2000. There we go. Holy shit. That was a boom. I mean, saying, you know, and look at what it did. You know, it went from like $20 to like $160 in a couple of years.

And it's never got back to those highs. Is that not incredible? You think you're lucky and you're new to the markets and why there's so many stock is just, I wish I would've just owned this when I was a little kid. Well, you know what? No, you don't. Because if you would've bought in 1999, 2000, it's still be down significant amounts of money, $160 back in the year, 2000, it's $116 a day.

That's what happens when you pay multiple through the roof and sit on them, you can trade anything. But when you get stuck in these high flyers and paying 80 times earnings or 30 times sales or 20 times sales, eventually the growth starts to slow. And that's what happened. So I'm S you know, this is, this is why, you know, I'm a value guy, not a growth guy.

Shout out to me. Sure. Bringing this up this morning. I mean, if we're right there, we're three to $2, $3 away, right. From that out that, that February high. And so, yeah, it's still significantly off the high from 20 years ago. There's no overhead supply. Nobody actually owned it has owned this stock, but even knows somebody remembers that stock for 21 years.

I think, well, I bet, you know, sell it losses. I'm joking. There are some pension funds, of course, that own it, but no pension funds, there's retail traders that would have been around back then. And heaven forbid you sell it a loss because nobody wants to ever cut their lose. They don't sell at losses and you know what, eventually maybe they'll get their money back, but it might take 50 years the better part of their lifetime to get their money back.

I mean, same thing with Japanese stocks. We talked about the Nikkei, you know, topping out. We're not back to where we were in 1992. So we're 30 years later still trying to get back to the. Could that happen in the U S markets? It absolutely could. Is it going to happen the eminently now? I don't think so. I don't see any signs of like this imminent crash.

I think JC is right. And I think you're right, Spencer. I do think eventually we're making new highs. I'm going to let you guys take it the rest of the way. No, pre-market prep plus today, Spencer, I'll be talking to you at three 30. Okay. PSA. Uh, if you're looking for upcoming events that maybe I should have mentioned this a few days ago, but Netflix has an event tomorrow.

They're a two dumb event is what it's called. They're going to basically it's the first ever the first time they're doing this, they're just going to preview all that stuff on the movies. All the TV shows that are coming to Netflix, I guess in the next one, if tomorrow. Yeah, maybe there'll be a run-up today.

Insight into that event. You mentioned that three days ago. Sorry. Let's see what the stock has done quickly to stick with you for a second here on Netflix right now, you know what? This stock, you want to talk about? Stocks making new highs and moving up higher, Netflix contents kill on it, scribers or whatever.

It doesn't even matter. At this point in time, they've got an event coming. Why not? Why not make new all-time highs on Netflix? I don't see any reason, you know, the valuations extreme violence. See any reason why the stock is all of a sudden going to turn it turn around and not, I think if you're thinking the market's making.

Netflix is going to be one of the drivers. It's been a leader. I think it continues to remain a leader. Don't tiger. King to Vista. Juan was playing. I don't say I didn't warn you. Okay. Tonya king too, is coming out for real. Uh, okay. That'll be a wrap here, guys. Smash that like button please. How many likes we're at today?

Right? Like three red, 2 53. Let's get to like 400 a day. Have a great rest of your day. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday. Uh, guys, I'm gonna wrap it up here. We're going to do some wive trading, uh, at the open, into the open, uh, Ryan Soluna, Mitch Hotch, uh, as you need, I'll stop by for a smidgen.

Um, and then I got to prepare for the show afterwards. So, uh, I'm gonna end this stream and we'll redirect automatically to that, you know, start probably in another minute or so. So hit that like button. Please remember all the information from our show it's meant to be used as informational purposes only, not for investing or trading advice.

Thanks to JC Perez. Thanks to all of you in the chat. Uh, the, the, the lovers, the haters, everyone, we, we love all the feedback we do. So thank you very much. Uh, and, and this stream here live trading with Benzinga starting live in.

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