Positive Regression: A Motorsports Analytics Podcast
139 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 2 years ago - ★★★★★ - 120 ratingsPositive Regression is a NASCAR podcast for the thinking fan, hosted by David Smith and Alan Cavanna.
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Episodes
Episode 131: Victory Lap
February 10, 2022 09:45 - 44 minutes - 35.8 MBIn which our heroes conclude their journey, bringing their humble podcast to an end. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 130: Things We Got Right and Wrong
November 24, 2021 09:15 - 52 minutes - 42.2 MBIn which our heroes close their third season of Positive Regression with a look back on their preseason predictions and a glance towards a new era of NASCAR where several of this year's truisms will remain intact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 129: Year-End Listener Q&A
November 18, 2021 09:15 - 49 minutes - 40.1 MBIn which our heroes conduct their final Q&A of the year, hitting on topics like Jimmie Johnson's hypothetical 2021 season, track characteristics, bad drivers in elite equipment, a Riley Herbst doppelgänger and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 128: Requiems and Fixes for 2022, Pt. 4
November 11, 2021 09:15 - 49 minutes - 40.1 MBIn which our heroes analyze the outcome of the 2021 NASCAR championship race before detailing the yearlong highlights, lowlights and potential fixes for the future on behalf of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: 2021 NASCAR Championship Race Preview
November 05, 2021 08:15 - 36 minutes - 29.6 MBIn which our heroes preview the NASCAR championship race, with deep analysis on Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex and an overview of Phoenix Raceway's track dynamics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 127: Requiems and Fixes for 2022, Pt. 3
November 04, 2021 08:15 - 40 minutes - 32.2 MBIn which our heroes detail the yearlong highlights, lowlights and potential fixes for the future on behalf of Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano before previewing the upcoming Xfinity Series championship race in Phoenix. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 126: Is Hendrick's Advantage Over?
October 28, 2021 08:15 - 43 minutes - 35.2 MBIn which our heroes ask whether Hendrick Motorsports has lost its advantage ahead of the final two races, both on 750-hp tracks. They also preview a pivotal playoff elimination race in Martinsville. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 125: Free Agency Winners and Losers
October 21, 2021 09:15 - 55 minutes - 44.5 MBIn which our heroes anoint the winners and losers of NASCAR free agency, discussing the likes of Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton, Matt DiBenedetto, AJ Allmendinger, John Hunter Nemechek and more. They also preview this weekend's race at Kansas Speedway. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 124: Requiems and Fixes for 2022, Pt. 2
October 14, 2021 09:15 - 46 minutes - 37.5 MBIn which our heroes detail the yearlong highlights, lowlights and potential fixes for the future on behalf of Kevin Harvick, William Byron, Alex Bowman and Christopher Bell before previewing the upcoming race in Texas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 123: The Mid-Year Crew Chief Change
October 07, 2021 08:15 - 46 minutes - 36.9 MBIn which our heroes explore the impact of mid-year crew chief changes across the last five seasons, including Austin Dillon's shift to Justin Alexander in 2017, the debut of Cliff Daniels in 2019 and the change on behalf of Matt DiBenedetto earlier this year. They also preview this weekend's race on the Charlotte Roval. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 122: Blue-Moon Occurrences
September 30, 2021 08:15 - 44 minutes - 35.7 MBIn which our heroes break down the pit strategy gone awry for Hendrick Motorsports in Las Vegas before previewing the upcoming race in Talladega. They also recall the caution-free 2001 Talladega 500 won by Bobby Hamilton. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 121: Requiems and Fixes for 2022, Pt. 1
September 23, 2021 08:25 - 48 minutes - 39 MBIn which our heroes detail the yearlong highlights, lowlights and potential fixes for the future on behalf of Kurt Busch, Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell and Aric Almirola before previewing the upcoming race in Las Vegas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 120: If You're First or You're Last, What is Your PEER?
September 16, 2021 09:05 - 51 minutes - 41.4 MBIn which our heroes answer listener questions — among them, mining for gems among NASCAR's back-markers, whether Christopher Bell was an upgrade over Erik Jones and how to estimate Ricky Bobby's PEER. They also preview this weekend's playoff elimination race in Bristol and remember the short career and life of Rob Moroso. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 119: Passing Fancy
September 09, 2021 09:05 - 53 minutes - 43.1 MBIn which our heroes offer a refresher on how to evaluate passing ability before sizing up the most efficient passers this season in the NASCAR Cup Series. They also preview this weekend's race in Richmond and discuss how the impact of Joe Gibbs Racing's No. 19 car pre-dates its history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 118: Kyle Larson, 15 Others Embark on Playoffs
September 02, 2021 09:05 - 45 minutes - 36.2 MBIn which our heroes preview the NASCAR playoffs by asking just how vulnerable title favorite Kyle Larson actually is. They also forecast the weekend's race in Darlington and recall the inaugural Southern 500. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: Daytona NASCAR Post-Race Analysis
August 29, 2021 05:37 - 34 minutes - 27.8 MBIn which our heroes break down NASCAR's 2021 regular season finale in Daytona, with discussions on Ryan Blaney's drafting track acumen, the skill of blocking and Austin Dillon's questionable strategy. They also assess Tyler Reddick's place in this year's playoffs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 117: A Year Deemed a Failure
August 26, 2021 09:15 - 43 minutes - 34.9 MBIn which our heroes determine whether the seasons of Richard Childress Racing, Roush Fenway Racing, 23XI Racing and JTG Daugherty Racing are failures if they do not qualify for NASCAR's playoffs. They also preview the NASCAR regular season finale in Daytona and look back at the fallout from Darrell Waltrip's 1990 injury. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 116: A Winless Harvick Hits Different
August 19, 2021 08:45 - 45 minutes - 36.9 MBIn which our heroes unpack a winless, albeit productive year from Kevin Harvick and question how late-season improvement could occur. They also preview this weekend's race in Michigan and reflect on the 2006 Carfax 250 which featured a showdown between Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 115: Talkin' Ty Gibbs
August 12, 2021 09:05 - 50 minutes - 40.9 MBIn which our heroes dedicate an entire segment to top NASCAR prospect Ty Gibbs, evaluating his 2021 season to date and answering listener questions. They also preview the first Cup Series race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and look back at a 1994 crash between brothers in the inaugural Brickyard 400. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 114: Pondering PEER
August 05, 2021 09:05 - 41 minutes - 33.5 MBIn which our heroes ask whether NASCAR drivers with well-rounded production abilities matter more than drivers with high PEERs on playoff tracks. They also preview the upcoming race at Watkins Glen and reflect on the career of Sterling Marlin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 113: Fast Cars and Fickle Predictions
July 29, 2021 08:45 - 46 minutes - 37.5 MBIn which our heroes discuss why the fastest car in a given NASCAR Cup Series race is only winning 27 percent of the time. They also evaluate some of their pre-season predictions and look back at Germain Racing's apparent lack of ambition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 112: Lessons Learned from New Hampshire
July 22, 2021 09:15 - 53 minutes - 42.9 MBIn which our heroes discuss what was learned in the New Hampshire race, an event that might've served as a playoff dress rehearsal. They also detail the highs and lows of Harrison Burton's development and fantasy-cast jobs for three free-agent drivers in Matt DiBenedetto, Ryan Preece and Ross Chastain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 111: Prognosticating Shock Victories
July 15, 2021 08:45 - 54 minutes - 43.6 MBIn which our heroes are joined by RJ Kraft, NASCAR.com's fantasy mage, to identify the most likely shock victors in the five remaining regular-season races. They also preview this weekend's race in New Hampshire and detail the tumultuous first season for Joe Gibbs Racing's No. 11 team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 110: Do 1.5-Mile Tracks Still Matter?
July 08, 2021 08:35 - 43 minutes - 34.9 MBIn which our heroes ask whether the 1.5-mile tracks that once dominated the NASCAR schedule still matter and if they're part of its future. They also preview this weekend's race in Atlanta and look back on the 1986 runnings of The Winston and Atlanta Invitational. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 109: Coaching Road Racers
July 01, 2021 08:35 - 48 minutes - 39.1 MBIn which our heroes are joined by Michael Self, a driving coach who trained Christopher Bell, Harrison Burton, Justin Haley and others, to discuss the methodologies behind training oval-track stars on road courses and help preview the NASCAR Cup Series race at Road America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 108: The Kyle Larson Deep Dive
June 24, 2021 08:35 - 42 minutes - 34.2 MBIn which our heroes become the latest NASCAR podcast hosts to talk about Kyle Larson, offering an analysis on his production increase, peripheral statistics and his crew chief's improvement on pit strategy. Then, they preview the doubleheader at Pocono Raceway. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: Listener Q&A on Restarts, Pit Stalls and Second-Chance Hires
June 22, 2021 08:35 - 23 minutes - 18.5 MBIn which our heroes answer listener questions regarding the impact of the choose rule on restarts, stats most correlative to success and which non-Cup Series veterans deserve a second (or first) crack at the big time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 107: Single-Car Sizzle
June 17, 2021 08:15 - 52 minutes - 42.3 MBIn which our heroes compare and contrast the seasons and trajectories of the top three single-car satellite teams: 23XI Racing, Richard Petty Motorsports and Trackhouse Racing. They also preview NASCAR's return to Nashville Superspeedway and look back on a memorable finish to its 2004 Xfinity Series race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 106: All Aboard the Struggle Bus
June 10, 2021 09:35 - 48 minutes - 39.1 MBIn which our heroes chronicle the struggles of recent playoff contenders Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Cole Custer and Matt DiBenedetto and identify second-half fixes for each. Before that, they recall Roush Racing: Driver X, a NASCAR-themed reality show on Discovery Channel in 2005. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 105: Nothing Silly About Free Agency
June 03, 2021 09:35 - 58 minutes - 47.1 MBIn which our heroes are joined by The Athletic's Jordan Bianchi to discuss top NASCAR free agents Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse among others, potential landing spots and free agency's biggest unknowns. They also preview the upcoming race at Sonoma Raceway and revisit when Todd Bodine and Ron Hornaday took spins behind the wheel of Hendrick's No. 5 car. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 104: An Ode to the Restarters
May 27, 2021 05:35 - 51 minutes - 11.8 MBIn which our heroes evaluate the year's noteworthy restarters in addition to diving deep on Jeff Gordon's 1994 Coca-Cola 600 win and previewing this year's iteration of the 600, where tire wear could disrupt Kyle Larson's likely dominance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 103: If You Can't Win at Phoenix, You're Not a Title Contender
May 20, 2021 05:35 - 50 minutes - 11.6 MBIn which our heroes assemble their lists of serious NASCAR title contenders and discuss whether we've seen "the real" Chase Elliott in 2021. They also preview the inaugural race at Circuit of the Americas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: More Questions, More Answers
May 18, 2021 05:35 - 27 minutes - 6.36 MBIn which our heroes answer more listener questions, including queries about speed measurement, neutral pit stops in lower divisions and Aric Almirola's place at Stewart-Haas Racing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 102: Listener Q&A
May 13, 2021 05:35 - 45 minutes - 41.4 MBIn which our heroes answer questions about PEER for argument's sake, designated race strategists, the financial impact of NASCAR's Next Gen car and potential regressions to the mean. They preview the upcoming Dover weekend with a focus on the kinds of drivers who conquer the concrete track and a look back at Derrike Cope's 1990 victory. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 101: Investigating the Impact of Pit Crews
May 06, 2021 05:30 - 49 minutes - 11.5 MBIn which our heroes dive deep on Lake Speed's 1988 Darlington upset before an all-encompassing discussion about pit stops, including which teams fare well, which disappoint and whether high-paid pit crews are worth it. They conclude with a preview of this weekend's Goodyear 400 at Darlington. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 100: A Hall of Fame to Call Our Own
April 29, 2021 05:35 - 1 hour - 14.6 MBIn which our heroes celebrate their 100th episode by making four inductions to a hall of fame honoring NASCAR analytics pioneers and staples before previewing the weekend's race in Kansas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 99: Production Rating Rantings
April 22, 2021 05:45 - 1 hour - 14 MBIn which our heroes extoll the wonderfully weird statistical oddity of Carl Edwards before breaking down overachievers and underachievers in the initial batch of 2021 Cup Series PEER rankings. Their Talladega race preview focuses on avoiding “The Big One.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 98: Process Over Results?
April 15, 2021 05:45 - 46 minutes - 10.6 MBIn which our heroes ignore the scoreboard and trust the process in a conversation about effort and outcomes before examining Kyle Larson's late-race fading and previewing the upcoming race in Richmond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: Martinsville Rain Delay Conversation
April 11, 2021 03:41 - 34 minutes - 7.85 MBIn which our heroes fill time during the rain delay of the Martinsville NASCAR race by discussing why the leader has such an advantage on this particular track, what Bubba Wallace's improvement means for him in 2021 and why 750-hp strength seems to translate from track to track. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 97: Two Truths and a Lie
April 08, 2021 05:45 - 44 minutes - 10.3 MBIn which one of our heroes is subjected to “Two Truths and a Lie,” a game designed to deliver you nuggets of NASCAR advanced stats wisdom. After that, they preview this weekend’s event in Martinsville and posit that a lack of qualifying could add sizzle to an otherwise straightforward race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 96: The Intersection of NASCAR and Cycling
April 01, 2021 05:45 - 51 minutes - 11.7 MBIn which our heroes are joined by Kristin Labonte, a three-time USA Masters cycling champion and NASCAR sponsorship marketer, to discuss the parallels between NASCAR and World Tour cycling. Then, they discuss whether elements of other sports like loans, tournaments, combines and timeouts could serve a purpose in auto racing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 95: Evaluating a Winless Trio
March 25, 2021 05:45 - 53 minutes - 12.4 MBIn which our heroes decipher the early-season riddles behind the prominent, albeit winless trio (07:36) of Kevin Harvick (09:17), Kyle Busch (21:16) and Chase Elliott (27:30). Afterwards, they offer their expectations of the upcoming Bristol dirt race (39:20). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 94: The Logic Behind Bad Pit Calls
March 18, 2021 05:45 - 52 minutes - 12 MBIn which our heroes celebrate their favorite NASCAR paint scheme (00:52) before understanding the logic behind some of the year's most polarizing pit gambles (09:25) for Kyle Larson at Homestead (18:26), Kevin Harvick at Las Vegas (21:22) and Bubba Wallace at Phoenix (24:17), among others. Then, they provide a comprehensive preview of the Atlanta race, focusing on tire wear (32:45), the relevance of having the fastest car (34:31) and what to expect from reigning winner Harvick (37:07). Learn...
Episode 93: What's a Proven Winner Proving by Winning More?
March 11, 2021 05:45 - 49 minutes - 11.4 MBIn which our heroes give thought to John Hunter Nemechek's puzzling path back to the NASCAR Truck Series (6:54) and whether his bet might actually work. Then, they preview the weekend's Cup Series race in Phoenix (32:16). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: Las Vegas NASCAR Post-Race Analysis
March 07, 2021 22:50 - 35 minutes - 8.11 MBIn which our heroes take to Venue for a live post-race show following the NASCAR Cup Series race in Las Vegas. They discuss the fickle restarts (04:19), Kyle Larson's evolution on 550-hp tracks (07:11) and whether he's a legitimate championship contender (10:42), Brad Keselowski's runner-up performance (14:35), the volatile fortunes of Kyle Busch (21:17) and a top-10 effort from potential free-agent market disruptor Erik Jones (26:04). Take part in the next Positive Regression live show by d...
Episode 92: Make a Strength Stronger
March 04, 2021 05:45 - 45 minutes - 10.6 MBIn which our heroes make sense of Martin Truex's decision to change spotters in an effort to improve his restarts (05:23), discuss whether spotter talent can be quantified (17:12), detail Team Penske's puzzling pit strategy in Homestead (19:02), preview the NASCAR Cup Series race in Las Vegas (22:45) and tease a new interactive post-race project (39:10). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Bonus Episode: Homestead NASCAR Race Preview
February 25, 2021 05:45 - 25 minutes - 5.78 MBIn which our heroes preview the NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, detailing the correlation between speed and results (01:37), the impact of long green-flag runs on car setup at 550-hp tracks (04:46), Christopher Bell's prowess on intermediate tracks (09:10), the restart dynamic (12:37), their favorites for the win (14:50) and their choices for contrarian performers (17:41). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Episode 91: Prospectpalooza III
February 18, 2021 05:45 - 50 minutes - 11.5 MBIn which our heroes are joined by Chris Mitchell of MotorsportsAnalytics.com to break down his list of NASCAR's top 50 prospects (07:55), including Sam Mayer (11:25), Derek Kraus (16:13), Sheldon Creed (19:01), Hailie Deegan (23:05) and Bret Holmes (27:07). Then, they offer a preview of this weekend's race on the Daytona road course (32:56) and chime in with favorites (41:47) and contrarian performers (44:29). For Chris Mitchell's prospects list, please visit https://motorsportsanalytics.net...
Episode 90: Very Specific Predictions
February 11, 2021 05:55 - 56 minutes - 13 MBIn which our heroes make predictions for the 2021 NASCAR season (04:55) that are on brand and off the beaten path, focused on fortunes for Kurt Busch (06:28), Joey Logano (10:45), Erik Jones (13:56), Chase Briscoe (17:44), Alex Bowman (21:21) and Matt DiBenedetto (25:54). Then, they submit a comprehensive preview of the Daytona 500 (29:24), discussing drafting-track speed (30:00), strategy (33:33), their picks to win (39:01) and contrarian performers (44:42). Learn more about your ad choices...
Episode 89: The Third Annual Crew Chief Draft
February 04, 2021 05:55 - 49 minutesIn which our heroes assemble their crew chief rosters for the 2021 Cup Series season in a snake-style draft focused on green-flag pit cycles (05:09). Then, they evaluate Denny Hamlin's contract extension with Joe Gibbs Racing (32:18) and the early outlook on NASCAR free agency (40:11). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices