Our confusing campaign season

This is a confusing campaign season. The polls currently have Biden behind. However, Biden is way ahead in fund-raising. Democratic Senate candidates are polling several points better than Biden. Seniors (and college whites) are for towards Biden and are reliable voters. Trump is gaining ground with under-40 Latinos and with Blacks. The most hardcore MAGA […]

By almost every measure other than polling, Biden is doing well. And Biden's polling is awful. Given that we're five months out and many voters still aren't paying attention yet, it's very hard to say with any certainty what's going to happen. https://t.co/Exnf49pIKh

— Mike Rothschild (no relation) (@rothschildmd) May 18, 2024

This is a confusing campaign season. The polls currently have Biden behind. However, Biden is way ahead in fund-raising. Democratic Senate candidates are polling several points better than Biden. Seniors (and college whites) are for towards Biden and are reliable voters. Trump is gaining ground with under-40 Latinos and with Blacks. The most hardcore MAGA supporters are also among the least likely to vote.

All of this is contrary to usual polling and expectations. Expect the coming confusing campaign season to be explosive, unpredictable, and all consuming, especially after Labor Day. Most people aren’t paying much attention now. That will change. Support for third-party candidates will decline drastically as the election approaches. Undecideds will make their choices. Social media and TV will be nonstop political ads, especially in the battleground states of WI, MI, PA, GA, NV, and AZ. Some of the ads will be AI fakes.

This election is going to be incredibly stupid because we're bored, so both candidates will see several phantom "vibe shifts" towards them.

Then we enter election day with all the battlegrounds within the margin of error, get another *incredibly* close race, and then we argue.

— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) May 18, 2024

Gosh, why would seniors, who usually vote Republican, be for Biden? Because Republicans want to decimate Social Security, that’s why. And that is a third rail of politics that only lunatics or ideologues attack. Granny will hobble to the polls using her walker to vote against destroying Social Security, count on it.

Ditto for women voting for abortion rights. This election is existential to them. No, they don’t want to be forced to report their periods and pregnancies to the government, presumably so it can be determined they might have gotten an abortion and then be prosecuted.

“According to the GOP, America needs a national registry for pregnant women along with the federal government tracking women’s menstrual cycles”