Nov. 7, 2022: Is it a wave?

We’re truly in the home stretch with one day to go until Election Day.
That means we are running out of precious time to deploy our favorite
campaign season cliches. So allow us to note: It all comes down to
turnout. And as we all know, the only poll that matters is the one on
Election Day...

Playbook editor Mike DeBonis and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza preview
the crucial week ahead, including, what should, actually, constitute a
red wave?

In the House, the most likely outcome is that this will be a typical
midterm in which the president’s party loses seats. The modern average
is a loss of 27 House seats. Three of the last four presidents did much
worse in their first midterms: Bill Clinton lost 54 seats, Barack Obama
lost 63 seats, and Donald Trump lost 40 seats. 

Every election brings with it confident predictions of some enduring new
majority. George W. Bush and Barack Obama were both seen as ushering in
eras of dominance for their respective parties. Donald Trump’s election
supposedly meant the end of the Democratic Party’s presidential
prospects. Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges
prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. 

The challenge after Tuesday is to keep two things in mind: There can be
a massive change in policy direction (the House flipping) with only a
small change in the electorate (less than 5% of House seats changing
hands).

Ryan's Playbook Deep Dive interview with Lynn Vavreck: Hindsight is
20/20

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter

Raghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook
Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We’re truly in the home stretch with one day to go until Election Day. That means we are running out of precious time to deploy our favorite campaign season cliches. So allow us to note: It all comes down to turnout. And as we all know, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day...

Playbook editor Mike DeBonis and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza preview the crucial week ahead, including, what should, actually, constitute a red wave?

In the House, the most likely outcome is that this will be a typical midterm in which the president’s party loses seats. The modern average is a loss of 27 House seats. Three of the last four presidents did much worse in their first midterms: Bill Clinton lost 54 seats, Barack Obama lost 63 seats, and Donald Trump lost 40 seats. 

Every election brings with it confident predictions of some enduring new majority. George W. Bush and Barack Obama were both seen as ushering in eras of dominance for their respective parties. Donald Trump’s election supposedly meant the end of the Democratic Party’s presidential prospects. Some liberals say that the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump surges prove that a stable center-left coalition exists to extinguish MAGA. 

The challenge after Tuesday is to keep two things in mind: There can be a massive change in policy direction (the House flipping) with only a small change in the electorate (less than 5% of House seats changing hands).

Ryan's Playbook Deep Dive interview with Lynn Vavreck: Hindsight is 20/20

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter

Raghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.