In the first quarter of the year, office vacancies were the highest ever recorded, according to real estate broker CBRE. The firm estimated a 29.5% vacancy rate last quarter, substantially higher than rates seen during the dot-com bust and Great Recession and a seven-fold increase from the start of 2020. 

Real estate analysts are expecting vacancies to tick up further as leases—including a major glut of shorter-term subleases—expire in the coming years. More dominos could fall if building owners, faced with lower revenues, decide to hand over their properties back to lenders, many of whom are already-distressed regional banks. 

“We’ll have a turnover unlike anything in the history of commercial real estate in the next 12 to 18 months,” said Mark Ritchie, a commercial real estate broker with Ritchie Commercial. 

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