The World of Today (or that of Trump)

The 9th of November will be remembered by liberals in Western democracies as the Bastille Day that crushed the dungeons of limitless migration, political correctness, the educated classes' snobbery over working classes, CNN’s supremacy over the airwaves, and the pollsters’ exactitude in predicting the outcome of mass events. On Ivy League campuses all around the country, in DC think tanks and in news rooms across all major US cities, people where literally chattered as their dream of liberal politics was cut down to pieces not by another establishment contender (Bush, Cruz or Rubio), but by a loud mouthed billionaire outsider. A Berlusconi moment of some sort that unsettled the cozy cohabitation of two antiquated ruling parties. A Brexit era of many sorts with trade, healthcare and migration consequences beyond the national soil.

Suddenly, Democrats woke up to new demographics and a new geography: the “Fly over States”. All that swath of land that stretches between NY and LA, that is inhabited by decent, God fearing, working masses that produce more useful goods than just CDOs and Blockbuster movies (sorry Goldman and Disney, no insults intended). That sees jobs going out, migrants coming in, infrastructures going down, taxes going up, trans genders storming toilet spaces, only Black lives mattered, police departments maligned nationally, Jay Z having political opinions, Beyoncé too (!), veterans denied proper care, a US Ambassador killed in cold blood in Benghazi few blocks away from ready-to-act military personnel, sensitive emails containing drone strike details handled by a Huma Abedin (?) on a private server set up for Hillary, and American products declining in the export charts despite low wages, low rates and a low USD.

Is this a cliché view? Wait till we get to real politics.

Domestically the Clintons turned political access into a pay-to-play scheme. Pay to the Clinton Foundation and you shall be granted access to the US Secretary of State (and her husband too) where you can voice your grievances in private and get personal assurances of them being resolved. Would that still be the US or more likely Angola, Guatemala, Syria, or even Italy or Greece? Several nations with stark record in human rights, in the treatment of women and of migrant workers, and in their carbon footprint became main donors to the Clinton Foundation, which incidentally, championed all such noble causes. How can such schizophrenic behavior ever be reconciled, except if one adds a large dose of greed and nepotism? The paid speeches of Hillary to Wall Street barons praised bankers, shunned regulators and made little if any, of the plight of millions of unemployed or of trade deals that were not stacked to the benefit of US workers. All part of the wealth-amassing frenzy that the Clintons embarked on. Within the Democratic camp none mattered more than Hillary. Even a firebrand such as Bernie Sanders was not provided a proper platform or given a fighting chance by the DNC operatives. His policies -that made total sense to disillusioned liberals and lefties- were set aside as the political machine of the Democratic Party crushed him under the weight of Hillary surrogates (including Barrack & Michelle, the odd couple) and dirty tactics. Hillary reigned supreme, faked few smiles, stumbled on few steps, and called more than 50 pct of Americans: deplorables! Not enough?

On the international scene, the US under the Obama administration and Hillary’s gazing eyes went from turbo power to wind power. The pivot to Asia, that signature piece of foreign policy, failed miserably. Even the Philippines, a US colony all but in name, decided to distance itself from the Obama presidency. North Korea mocked the vague US threats of retaliation whilst conducting nuclear tests, and China built more man-made islands in the South China Sea than a busload of agitated kids playing lego. Japan and South Korea the Asian allies of the US since World War II,

The 9th of November will be remembered by liberals in Western democracies as the Bastille Day that crushed the dungeons of limitless migration, political correctness, the educated classes’ snobbery over working classes, CNN’s supremacy over the airwaves, and the pollsters’ exactitude in predicting the outcome of mass events. On Ivy League campuses all around the country, in DC think tanks and in news rooms across all major US cities, people where literally chattered as their dream of liberal politics was cut down to pieces not by another establishment contender (Bush, Cruz or Rubio), but by a loud mouthed billionaire outsider. A Berlusconi moment of some sort that unsettled the cozy cohabitation of two antiquated ruling parties. A Brexit era of many sorts with trade, healthcare and migration consequences beyond the national soil.

Suddenly, Democrats woke up to new demographics and a new geography: the “Fly over States”. All that swath of land that stretches between NY and LA, that is inhabited by decent, God fearing, working masses that produce more useful goods than just CDOs and Blockbuster movies (sorry Goldman and Disney, no insults intended). That sees jobs going out, migrants coming in, infrastructures going down, taxes going up, trans genders storming toilet spaces, only Black lives mattered, police departments maligned nationally, Jay Z having political opinions, Beyoncé too (!), veterans denied proper care, a US Ambassador killed in cold blood in Benghazi few blocks away from ready-to-act military personnel, sensitive emails containing drone strike details handled by a Huma Abedin (?) on a private server set up for Hillary, and American products declining in the export charts despite low wages, low rates and a low USD.

Is this a cliché view? Wait till we get to real politics.

Domestically the Clintons turned political access into a pay-to-play scheme. Pay to the Clinton Foundation and you shall be granted access to the US Secretary of State (and her husband too) where you can voice your grievances in private and get personal assurances of them being resolved. Would that still be the US or more likely Angola, Guatemala, Syria, or even Italy or Greece? Several nations with stark record in human rights, in the treatment of women and of migrant workers, and in their carbon footprint became main donors to the Clinton Foundation, which incidentally, championed all such noble causes. How can such schizophrenic behavior ever be reconciled, except if one adds a large dose of greed and nepotism? The paid speeches of Hillary to Wall Street barons praised bankers, shunned regulators and made little if any, of the plight of millions of unemployed or of trade deals that were not stacked to the benefit of US workers. All part of the wealth-amassing frenzy that the Clintons embarked on. Within the Democratic camp none mattered more than Hillary. Even a firebrand such as Bernie Sanders was not provided a proper platform or given a fighting chance by the DNC operatives. His policies -that made total sense to disillusioned liberals and lefties- were set aside as the political machine of the Democratic Party crushed him under the weight of Hillary surrogates (including Barrack & Michelle, the odd couple) and dirty tactics. Hillary reigned supreme, faked few smiles, stumbled on few steps, and called more than 50 pct of Americans: deplorables! Not enough?

On the international scene, the US under the Obama administration and Hillary’s gazing eyes went from turbo power to wind power. The pivot to Asia, that signature piece of foreign policy, failed miserably. Even the Philippines, a US colony all but in name, decided to distance itself from the Obama presidency. North Korea mocked the vague US threats of retaliation whilst conducting nuclear tests, and China built more man-made islands in the South China Sea than a busload of agitated kids playing lego. Japan and South Korea the Asian allies of the US since World War II, were left to fend for themselves. In the Middle East, Iran was rewarded, Saudi was chided, Egypt was derided, Syria was neglected, and Libya forgotten. Former allies tuned into new foes, and old enemies got off scotch free without necessarily changing their vitriolic policies vis a vis the US. In Europe, Russia took over Crimea, shut down a Malaysian airliner, and allegedly hacked US emails without feeling the brunt of any US ire or retaliatory action be it of covert or overt nature.

Would a Trump presidency bring a solution to all such evils? Surely not, but it has the advantage of a clean slate. A fresh outlook at old problems without legacy issues to hold one down is never a bad omen especially from someone who has defied all odds, literally and figuratively, to win the White House.

What to expect from a Trump presidency is a pure exercise in speculation but we can anticipate few moves. A tougher stance on immigration in the US with deportations on the rise and extreme vetting for new entrants from Africa, the Middle East and some Asian countries, stricter border controls and an electric wall paid for by taxes levied on migrant workers from Mexico or US companies’ profits generated in Mexico, a renegotiation of NAFTA (both Canada and Mexico have expressed their willingness to do so), higher interest rates albeit gradually, a repeal of the ObamaCare legislation, a relaxation of the Dodd-Frank regulations with the possibility of reintroducing a Glass-Steagal Act that separates investment from commercial banking, a shake-up of NATO’s current financial commitments by non-US members, a détente (not love-and-kisses) with Putin, a rebuke of the Iran nuclear deal in its current form, a revision of the current policy vis a vis Cuba, stronger ties with Israel, with Egypt and a lukewarm relationship with Saudi.

If in the first 100 days we get a clear glimpse of 50 pct of those anticipated moves, the next 4 years will be much exciting to watch.