The Arab Spring is Back .., Maybe smarter this time around?

Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafi, Zein Al Abidine Bin Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Ali Abdallah Saleh, Omar Al Bachir, and Boutaflika, constitute an A team where ‘A’ stands for a mix of Assassins, Authoritarians, and Autocrats. The Arab Spring, in its first version, has been much mocked, belittled and disdained. True, the street protestors did not have a replacement plan in most cases, but protestors don’t usually have one. From the Brexiteers to the Gilets Jaunes, they have demands, anger, and claims, but not a succession plan especially, for regimes that have been in place for 30 years and more. True, the street protests have escalated into armed conflicts in Libya, Yemen and Syria, but that was expected in light of the brutality of the dictators who promised to wipe out -literally- all of their opponents.
The first version of the Arab Spring was filled with hopes and shortcomings, with enthusiasm and chaos, with civil society demands and with civil war consequences. The civil society that opposed tyrants in Damascus, Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli and Sana'a had no political agenda ready to project onto the post-dictatorship era. So, the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical versions of such venom-filled ideology, filled the gap.  The Internet-based activists, the pacifists, the women movements, the press, and the civil society at large were discarded, excluded, and taken over by an organized mob of men hiding behind their strict religious beliefs, and their repressive ideals which aim to keep the same people, who just claimed their freedom, under another serfdom. Finally, when such group of misfit theologians failed to govern, the army, the only other organized structure in said nations, took over and replaced the bearded politicians with crew cut officers. Not the best outcome, nor one that answered the aspirations of the young activists, but between a religious and a military junta, the population sided with the least ideologically harmful party namely, the armed forces.
In its second version, played out in Khartoum and Algiers, not only did the street protestors not succumb to the use of violence or to hurling Islamic slogans at the regime, but they have removed the long-serving so-called Presidents for Life, from office within days. They also have smartly rejected the musical chair game, of replacing an old military or ex-military dictator with a relatively younger one, in the form of an Armed Council or a Temporary Military Government. The protestors in the second version of the Arab Spring are making clear statements. They have claimed to oust the regimes of Bouteflika and Al Bachir not because of beliefs, or stands on ideology but because they have failed to deliver what governments should: economic prosperity, zero tolerance for corruption, safety to all and a guarantee of personal freedoms. They have rejected the interim military governments simply to avoid another Egyptian scenario. They see such an offer as disingenuous, a sort of a false promise to get them off the street and back home to worry about their jobs, schools and welfare. The trick does not seem to be playing to the benefit of the armed forces, this time around.
Maybe a civilian government which includes military appointees in the interior and defense ministries, civilian ministers with an impeccable human rights record, and other technocrats who are much needed to jump start the economy, could be the interim solution before the closest thing to democratic elections can be held.
In its second version, the Arab Spring is giving pause to others who survived the first one including, Assad fils, and the Mullahs in Iran. Lebanon might follow suit if the economic situation worsens and the Lebanese pound takes a nosedive shattering to bits against the mighty US dollar, which is the benchmark currency. Then, the current collage of a freak government would not last under the pressures of public sector employees, the armed forces going unpaid,

Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafi, Zein Al Abidine Bin Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Ali Abdallah Saleh, Omar Al Bachir, and Boutaflika, constitute an A team where ‘A’ stands for a mix of Assassins, Authoritarians, and Autocrats. The Arab Spring, in its first version, has been much mocked, belittled and disdained. True, the street protestors did not have a replacement plan in most cases, but protestors don’t usually have one. From the Brexiteers to the Gilets Jaunes, they have demands, anger, and claims, but not a succession plan especially, for regimes that have been in place for 30 years and more. True, the street protests have escalated into armed conflicts in Libya, Yemen and Syria, but that was expected in light of the brutality of the dictators who promised to wipe out -literally- all of their opponents.

The first version of the Arab Spring was filled with hopes and shortcomings, with enthusiasm and chaos, with civil society demands and with civil war consequences. The civil society that opposed tyrants in Damascus, Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli and Sana’a had no political agenda ready to project onto the post-dictatorship era. So, the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical versions of such venom-filled ideology, filled the gap.  The Internet-based activists, the pacifists, the women movements, the press, and the civil society at large were discarded, excluded, and taken over by an organized mob of men hiding behind their strict religious beliefs, and their repressive ideals which aim to keep the same people, who just claimed their freedom, under another serfdom. Finally, when such group of misfit theologians failed to govern, the army, the only other organized structure in said nations, took over and replaced the bearded politicians with crew cut officers. Not the best outcome, nor one that answered the aspirations of the young activists, but between a religious and a military junta, the population sided with the least ideologically harmful party namely, the armed forces.

In its second version, played out in Khartoum and Algiers, not only did the street protestors not succumb to the use of violence or to hurling Islamic slogans at the regime, but they have removed the long-serving so-called Presidents for Life, from office within days. They also have smartly rejected the musical chair game, of replacing an old military or ex-military dictator with a relatively younger one, in the form of an Armed Council or a Temporary Military Government. The protestors in the second version of the Arab Spring are making clear statements. They have claimed to oust the regimes of Bouteflika and Al Bachir not because of beliefs, or stands on ideology but because they have failed to deliver what governments should: economic prosperity, zero tolerance for corruption, safety to all and a guarantee of personal freedoms. They have rejected the interim military governments simply to avoid another Egyptian scenario. They see such an offer as disingenuous, a sort of a false promise to get them off the street and back home to worry about their jobs, schools and welfare. The trick does not seem to be playing to the benefit of the armed forces, this time around.

Maybe a civilian government which includes military appointees in the interior and defense ministries, civilian ministers with an impeccable human rights record, and other technocrats who are much needed to jump start the economy, could be the interim solution before the closest thing to democratic elections can be held.

In its second version, the Arab Spring is giving pause to others who survived the first one including, Assad fils, and the Mullahs in Iran. Lebanon might follow suit if the economic situation worsens and the Lebanese pound takes a nosedive shattering to bits against the mighty US dollar, which is the benchmark currency. Then, the current collage of a freak government would not last under the pressures of public sector employees, the armed forces going unpaid, and the rest of the people who would see both their savings and their income evaporate into thin air.

Two lessons that could be distilled from the Arab Spring in its first and second versions. The first lesson is to dictators: run, and the earlier the better.The second lesson is to protestors: no religious slogans, no violence, and for God’s sake, have a modicum of an interim plan.