Syria: tell me how does it end?

We all know how it started. A sparkle that was lit from the amber of the Arab Spring fueling the repressed demands of politically destitute and economically deprived Syrians. It did not start as an elite movement exploiting troubled times in the Middle East. Nor was it, as one would expect, a military coup or a hastily concocted accusation of an Imperialist, Zionist, Fascist or some other ‘ist’ conspiracy. The origins of the sparkle were much more modest. Kids scribbling anti-regime slogans on a wall in Dera’a. Mere slogans were too much to fathom for Damascus’ tyrant. Then, came the regime’s thunderous response delivered in a Stalin-like fashion.

We all know what followed. The brutal repression and mass murders perpetrated by the regime, which gradually drew hordes of Islamic fanatics of all colors and stripes. The situation soon deteriorated with bombs dropped on civilians from Syrian army helicopters only to be matched by ISIS-televised beheadings. As a result, the weakest link has been–and remains- the Assad regime and its limited number of supporters amongst the Damascene urban elite–which is taken hostage- and the rural minorities of Christians, Druzes and Alawites. Assad was severely weakened at the opening salvo of this war by the mere defiance to his regime, and to his father’s -who still rules from the grave. In dictatorships the aura, the myth and the illusion of power are more important than actual force, and armored divisions. Once the illusion is dissipated, fear quickly fades and the God-like tyrant suddenly turn into a mere mortal. The beauty of mortals is that they are. So taking aim at bringing down the regime became within reach. The unsettling of the regime was manifest though the growing threats from within. Gen. Asif Shawkat the distrusted brother-in-law, Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, the former ruler of Lebanon and Gen. Rustom Ghazali, his predecessor, to name but a few. All were assassinated by the regime in preemptive strikes, no questions asked. The SS liquidating the SA, kind of.

On the battlefield, only the intervention of Iran via its proxies made up of Lebanese, Iraqi, Syrian and Afghani paramilitaries, was able to shore-up the crumbling defenses of Damascus and other key cities and towns in Syria. This proxy army has fully undermined the Assad regime who now has to rely on foreign militias and irregulars to survive. Not only was the ‘Emperor Naked’, he was kneeling most humbly. Then, the curtain call came in once the Iranians, no longer capable of repelling the waves of suicide bombers, pleaded with Putin to save Syria’s Assad from its irreversible fate. The fate of the Assad regime was sealed the moment Russian jets entered the Syrian air space. From a former all-powerful dictator of Syria, occupier of Lebanon, ally of Iran, and junior partner of Russia, Assad became a Putin vassal at best, or his pawn at worst.

Cease fires are being negotiated than reneged between Russia and the US irrespective of Assad’s role, presence or opinion. The Syrian conflict has metamorphosed from a local rebellion into an international showdown. The Syrian theater of operations has succeeded to assemble more armies and proxy fighters than a landing on a Normandy beach. All seem to be present in one form or another including the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Saudi, Qatar, the UK, France, and Israel. But what are the objectives of the major players?

In Syria, Russia is most naturally protecting a historical client-state and laying claims to a strategic real estate on the Mediterranean, just like Crimea on the Black Sea. But what is Russia’ end game? Keeping Assad in place (an impossible task), or keeping the US in check (a costly game), or keeping the Sunnis subjugated (a risky gamble given the restless Muslims inside the former USSR)? Is Russia eying to play guarantor of the East Mediterranean gas routes to Europe? Would this role demand an enlarged, semi-permanent naval base in Tartus similar to the US’ Fifth Fleet in ...

We all know how it started. A sparkle that was lit from the amber of the Arab Spring fueling the repressed demands of politically destitute and economically deprived Syrians. It did not start as an elite movement exploiting troubled times in the Middle East. Nor was it, as one would expect, a military coup or a hastily concocted accusation of an Imperialist, Zionist, Fascist or some other ‘ist’ conspiracy. The origins of the sparkle were much more modest. Kids scribbling anti-regime slogans on a wall in Dera’a. Mere slogans were too much to fathom for Damascus’ tyrant. Then, came the regime’s thunderous response delivered in a Stalin-like fashion.

We all know what followed. The brutal repression and mass murders perpetrated by the regime, which gradually drew hordes of Islamic fanatics of all colors and stripes. The situation soon deteriorated with bombs dropped on civilians from Syrian army helicopters only to be matched by ISIS-televised beheadings. As a result, the weakest link has been–and remains- the Assad regime and its limited number of supporters amongst the Damascene urban elite–which is taken hostage- and the rural minorities of Christians, Druzes and Alawites. Assad was severely weakened at the opening salvo of this war by the mere defiance to his regime, and to his father’s -who still rules from the grave. In dictatorships the aura, the myth and the illusion of power are more important than actual force, and armored divisions. Once the illusion is dissipated, fear quickly fades and the God-like tyrant suddenly turn into a mere mortal. The beauty of mortals is that they are. So taking aim at bringing down the regime became within reach. The unsettling of the regime was manifest though the growing threats from within. Gen. Asif Shawkat the distrusted brother-in-law, Gen. Ghazi Kanaan, the former ruler of Lebanon and Gen. Rustom Ghazali, his predecessor, to name but a few. All were assassinated by the regime in preemptive strikes, no questions asked. The SS liquidating the SA, kind of.

On the battlefield, only the intervention of Iran via its proxies made up of Lebanese, Iraqi, Syrian and Afghani paramilitaries, was able to shore-up the crumbling defenses of Damascus and other key cities and towns in Syria. This proxy army has fully undermined the Assad regime who now has to rely on foreign militias and irregulars to survive. Not only was the ‘Emperor Naked’, he was kneeling most humbly. Then, the curtain call came in once the Iranians, no longer capable of repelling the waves of suicide bombers, pleaded with Putin to save Syria’s Assad from its irreversible fate. The fate of the Assad regime was sealed the moment Russian jets entered the Syrian air space. From a former all-powerful dictator of Syria, occupier of Lebanon, ally of Iran, and junior partner of Russia, Assad became a Putin vassal at best, or his pawn at worst.

Cease fires are being negotiated than reneged between Russia and the US irrespective of Assad’s role, presence or opinion. The Syrian conflict has metamorphosed from a local rebellion into an international showdown. The Syrian theater of operations has succeeded to assemble more armies and proxy fighters than a landing on a Normandy beach. All seem to be present in one form or another including the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Saudi, Qatar, the UK, France, and Israel. But what are the objectives of the major players?

In Syria, Russia is most naturally protecting a historical client-state and laying claims to a strategic real estate on the Mediterranean, just like Crimea on the Black Sea. But what is Russia’ end game? Keeping Assad in place (an impossible task), or keeping the US in check (a costly game), or keeping the Sunnis subjugated (a risky gamble given the restless Muslims inside the former USSR)? Is Russia eying to play guarantor of the East Mediterranean gas routes to Europe? Would this role demand an enlarged, semi-permanent naval base in Tartus similar to the US’ Fifth Fleet in Bahrain? Or is Russia just a spoiler looking for gains elsewhere? How can Russia afford all such maneuvering at a time of international sanctions, low oil prices, and an asymmetric military balance with the US?

Separately, the US is combating ISIS with the help of the Kurds, and more recently the Turks. US foreign policy has flatly denied a no-fly zone to Syrian refugees, barely assisted the Free Syrian Army, most assuredly alienated Turkey by cooperating closely with the Kurds, and most explicitly reneged on its promise to punish Assad for using chemical weapons. Though it has succeeded in getting Putin deeper into the Syrian quagmire. But is that enough as end game? What is the US attitude towards a re-stitched Syria under ‘Chemical Bashar’, or a divided Syria without him? Can the US continue to rely on Erdogan in light of his severe undemocratic streak and his suspicious rapprochement with Putin? Would the Kurds be sacrificed on the altar of realpolitik despite showing bravery in battle? Is Iran to gain more power in the Middle East, gift of the US’ blunders in Syria as it did in Iraq? How does the present course of a confused foreign policy further America’s long-term interests and those of its allies?

Let us imagine the end of this conflict. Humor, if you may, some few guesses. The Assad clan will most likely cease to rule Syria, or at least, pre-war Syria. The country itself will not be divided into multiple enclaves since such balkanization would lead to endless religious conflicts and cause a domino effect into Iraq and Lebanon. ISIS will most probably be crushed, but it will have siblings, and offsprings for years to come. Turkey is likely to witness another military coup and Erdogan’s iron rule severely tested. Iran’s youths would most probably revolt demanding reforms, basic rights and more freedoms. A regime change, from within, might finally occur. Russia would negotiate some meaty prize for exiting Syria. Probably, a recognition of Crimea’s annexation and fewer NATO-commandeered missiles on its borders. Finally, the US will have to find its path and reclaim a leadership role after eight years of literally drifting in the desert.

The good thing about a guessing game is that it gets people to challenge the thoughts, offer counter arguments and different scenarios, which all lead to gaining better visibility of what could be the closest version of an end-game. Let’s keep guessing……