Saudi’s Missed Opportunity

This article is few weeks late. Maybe it took that much time to realize the facts, to intelligently react to them and to think about a different outcome to the circumstances that prevailed and that are still unfolding ever since.
A question has been haunting our analysis: what if, in the aftermath of the attack on Aramco’s facilities by Iran, Saudi stated its firm intention to get the oil flowing back but also said, that it did not have a definitive timeline for restoring such capacity? A rational, well prepared statement that explains that in light of the unparalleled nature of the attack and of the damages caused, the engineering team at Aramco now facing an unprecedented situation, would be grappling with the means and the time required to conduct and complete the repairs.
One could assume that oil prices would immediately hit the ceiling (way past $100/barrel), and so would gold and silver. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would tumble few hundred points, the boom in the US economy would be dented along with the carefree attitude of Trump towards the 2020 elections, and Iran would be squarely blamed for having caused a lasting havoc across the globe. All speculative guessing of course, but not so much off course!
The Iranian attack would take such a global proportion that even the Saudis themselves could never have dreamt of. Iran would become an international pariah overnight. Not only over the issues of nuclear proliferation and the exporting of terrorism, but for causing the savings of the world’s population to shrink due to a higher fuel & gas bill at the beginning of winter. Only the looney climate warriors would be happily protesting in the squares of Western capitals, to denounce the evils of oil dependency. Iranians would not be able to blame the West this time or the Arabs for a change or Israel for that matter. Since the attacks were a deliberate, unprovoked, act of war against a sovereign nation. Zarif would be derided in international forums for playing victim of a US-led conspiracy, as he usually does, the Mullahs’ hypocrisy for seeking good rapports with the West would be exposed and, the IRGC would become even more vulnerable to practical sanctions.
In this scenario, where the Saudis take their time to repair Aramco’s facilities, Trump would be caught between an edgy rock and a very hard place. Committing boots on the ground for a new Middle East military adventure would cause him to break a cardinal promise of his 2016 campaign, as well as, his strong personal beliefs. He has argued for an end to all US military interventions unless the direct security interests of the US were threatened. Sending troops to fight (not merely watch as they actually are) or launching a retaliatory attack would get the US into another unpredictable armed conflict. That was never in Mr. Trump’s plans. However, doing nothing and watching oil prices skyrocketing, the stock market crashing, unemployment rapidly rising, tariff wars becoming futile and costly, and a recession seeping in at a galloping speed, are not scenarios of choice for a President who is desperately seeking re-election. Trump would be forced to take some retaliatory measures to comfort his allies (does he really see them as such?) and punish his enemies (does he consider anyone to be such apart from the US liberal media?).  He would have, at minimum, to do something say damage or sabotage the oil refinery in Abadan and bring the Iranian transport sector and with it the country, to a halt. Launch a cyber-attack on Iranian drone installations and its air force to ground their capacity, or maybe other similar actions that would bring stability to the region but from a position of strength rather than one of evasion. And in all events, he would have to engage somehow to avert a global financial crisis and, an assured loss in the 2020 elections should the US economic miracle hit a serious speed bump.
Whomever counseled the Saudi leadership on their decision ha...

This article is few weeks late. Maybe it took that much time to realize the facts, to intelligently react to them and to think about a different outcome to the circumstances that prevailed and that are still unfolding ever since.

A question has been haunting our analysis: what if, in the aftermath of the attack on Aramco’s facilities by Iran, Saudi stated its firm intention to get the oil flowing back but also said, that it did not have a definitive timeline for restoring such capacity? A rational, well prepared statement that explains that in light of the unparalleled nature of the attack and of the damages caused, the engineering team at Aramco now facing an unprecedented situation, would be grappling with the means and the time required to conduct and complete the repairs.

One could assume that oil prices would immediately hit the ceiling (way past $100/barrel), and so would gold and silver. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would tumble few hundred points, the boom in the US economy would be dented along with the carefree attitude of Trump towards the 2020 elections, and Iran would be squarely blamed for having caused a lasting havoc across the globe. All speculative guessing of course, but not so much off course!

The Iranian attack would take such a global proportion that even the Saudis themselves could never have dreamt of. Iran would become an international pariah overnight. Not only over the issues of nuclear proliferation and the exporting of terrorism, but for causing the savings of the world’s population to shrink due to a higher fuel & gas bill at the beginning of winter. Only the looney climate warriors would be happily protesting in the squares of Western capitals, to denounce the evils of oil dependency. Iranians would not be able to blame the West this time or the Arabs for a change or Israel for that matter. Since the attacks were a deliberate, unprovoked, act of war against a sovereign nation. Zarif would be derided in international forums for playing victim of a US-led conspiracy, as he usually does, the Mullahs’ hypocrisy for seeking good rapports with the West would be exposed and, the IRGC would become even more vulnerable to practical sanctions.

In this scenario, where the Saudis take their time to repair Aramco’s facilities, Trump would be caught between an edgy rock and a very hard place. Committing boots on the ground for a new Middle East military adventure would cause him to break a cardinal promise of his 2016 campaign, as well as, his strong personal beliefs. He has argued for an end to all US military interventions unless the direct security interests of the US were threatened. Sending troops to fight (not merely watch as they actually are) or launching a retaliatory attack would get the US into another unpredictable armed conflict. That was never in Mr. Trump’s plans. However, doing nothing and watching oil prices skyrocketing, the stock market crashing, unemployment rapidly rising, tariff wars becoming futile and costly, and a recession seeping in at a galloping speed, are not scenarios of choice for a President who is desperately seeking re-election. Trump would be forced to take some retaliatory measures to comfort his allies (does he really see them as such?) and punish his enemies (does he consider anyone to be such apart from the US liberal media?).  He would have, at minimum, to do something say damage or sabotage the oil refinery in Abadan and bring the Iranian transport sector and with it the country, to a halt. Launch a cyber-attack on Iranian drone installations and its air force to ground their capacity, or maybe other similar actions that would bring stability to the region but from a position of strength rather than one of evasion. And in all events, he would have to engage somehow to avert a global financial crisis and, an assured loss in the 2020 elections should the US economic miracle hit a serious speed bump.

Whomever counseled the Saudi leadership on their decision has done a great deal of benefit to Trump, the US economy, the world’s oil consumers, global trade and, to the Iranians (indirectly) by getting them scot-free from a mousetrap that could have really caught them bloody handed. No tangible benefits to Saudi can be seen from such counsel. Next time perhaps because they’ll be plenty of such occasions.

Maybe they can take some solace in a Confucius quote: ”Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall”.