Re-arranging the Arab Tent

The Ottoman Arab provinces were carefully divided by the Western Allies (read France and Great Britain) in 1916 according to the secret Asia Minor Agreement, more known as the “Sykes-Picot Accord”. Much has been written about this infamous deal which allocated areas of influence to Great Britain and France over dominions of the failing Ottoman Empire. However, post-world war II brought another refinement to this settlement by segregating these dominions into Arab and non-Arab groups. Iran, Turkey and Israel were built up as the linchpin of the post-world war II alliance, whereas the Arab nations were caught in the middle of this triangle. Teheran, Istanbul and Jerusalem are the capitals of the Persian, Turkic, and Hebrew ‘tribes’ whose reliance on the West and vice versa brought an era of stability into the turbulent Arab ‘tribal’ mess. Nasser of Egypt became in the mid 1950s a serious check to British power and had to be chastised after the nationalization of the Suez Canal, by a tripartite attack in 1957 led by no else than Israel, France and Great Britain. The Turkish strait crisis, a Cold War era territorial dispute between Turkey and the USSR, drew Turkey ever closer to the Western alliance, ultimately becoming a member of NATO. Finally, and until his ouster by the Islamic Revolution, the Shah of Iran was a close, if not the closest, ally of the Western Alliance in Asia Minor. He maintained a strategic relationship with the US, both regimes sharing a fear of/opposition to the expansion of the USSR , Iran's powerful northern neighbor.

The ‘tribes with flags’ of the Arab world were never treated with the same importance or deference by the British and French, and later by the US, as did the non-Arab entities of the Middle East. Judged unruly, sometimes untrustworthy, and lacking a military back-bone (save Egypt whose military was decimated in its successive wars with Israel), these Arab flailing nations presented the Western Alliance with little advantages apart from oil. However, when oil was nationalized in Libya, Iraq and Saudi this last piece of interest dwindled even further.

Fast-forward to present day. Turkey is a wavering NATO ally that attacks German and Dutch politicians and is bent on flirting with Russia. Iran’s staunch anti-US, Mullah-dominated regime, is fighting alongside Russian forces in Syria and is threatening the GCC nations. Israel is governed by an ultra-right, ultra-orthodox, ultra-everything government that sees no end to the Palestinian crisis except the end of the Palestinians. Furthermore, its repeated air strikes against Hezbollah missiles’ stockpile in Syria are closely coordinated with Russia. This renders the triangular nations of Iran, Turkey and Israel, either mortal enemies (such as Iran) or untrusted allies (as in the case of Turkey) or unsettled friends (Israel) of the US.

But what about the Arab nations? The GCC + Egypt, Jordan and Morocco form today the bulwark against Iranian ambitions and Turkish interferences into the matters of the Middle East. Israel, remains a separate case to be dealt with through the US and not in spite of it. Therefore, the Sunni Monarchies (as we posit that Gen. Sisi in Egypt is a virtual monarch) have appealed to the US and presented their case for a renewed partnership. Some critics have mocked this as a ‘coalition of the billing’ not ‘of the willing’, a jibe to the multi-billion dollar pledges that Pres. Trump has secured from Saudi alone. However, after being shaken to the core by the Obama’s administration pivot towards Iran and in favor of the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt and Turkey, these Sunni Monarchies have no reason and probably no option, but to throw their lot with the current US administration.

Iran is encircling the Arabs in the Gulf from Yemen to Bahrain, and is fighting fiercely in Iraq and Syria whilst taking Lebanon as hostage. Turkey is still aiding and abetting the Muslim Brotherhood –and some say ISIS or other versions ...

The Ottoman Arab provinces were carefully divided by the Western Allies (read France and Great Britain) in 1916 according to the secret Asia Minor Agreement, more known as the “Sykes-Picot Accord”. Much has been written about this infamous deal which allocated areas of influence to Great Britain and France over dominions of the failing Ottoman Empire. However, post-world war II brought another refinement to this settlement by segregating these dominions into Arab and non-Arab groups. Iran, Turkey and Israel were built up as the linchpin of the post-world war II alliance, whereas the Arab nations were caught in the middle of this triangle. Teheran, Istanbul and Jerusalem are the capitals of the Persian, Turkic, and Hebrew ‘tribes’ whose reliance on the West and vice versa brought an era of stability into the turbulent Arab ‘tribal’ mess. Nasser of Egypt became in the mid 1950s a serious check to British power and had to be chastised after the nationalization of the Suez Canal, by a tripartite attack in 1957 led by no else than Israel, France and Great Britain. The Turkish strait crisis, a Cold War era territorial dispute between Turkey and the USSR, drew Turkey ever closer to the Western alliance, ultimately becoming a member of NATO. Finally, and until his ouster by the Islamic Revolution, the Shah of Iran was a close, if not the closest, ally of the Western Alliance in Asia Minor. He maintained a strategic relationship with the US, both regimes sharing a fear of/opposition to the expansion of the USSR , Iran’s powerful northern neighbor.

The ‘tribes with flags’ of the Arab world were never treated with the same importance or deference by the British and French, and later by the US, as did the non-Arab entities of the Middle East. Judged unruly, sometimes untrustworthy, and lacking a military back-bone (save Egypt whose military was decimated in its successive wars with Israel), these Arab flailing nations presented the Western Alliance with little advantages apart from oil. However, when oil was nationalized in Libya, Iraq and Saudi this last piece of interest dwindled even further.

Fast-forward to present day. Turkey is a wavering NATO ally that attacks German and Dutch politicians and is bent on flirting with Russia. Iran’s staunch anti-US, Mullah-dominated regime, is fighting alongside Russian forces in Syria and is threatening the GCC nations. Israel is governed by an ultra-right, ultra-orthodox, ultra-everything government that sees no end to the Palestinian crisis except the end of the Palestinians. Furthermore, its repeated air strikes against Hezbollah missiles’ stockpile in Syria are closely coordinated with Russia. This renders the triangular nations of Iran, Turkey and Israel, either mortal enemies (such as Iran) or untrusted allies (as in the case of Turkey) or unsettled friends (Israel) of the US.

But what about the Arab nations? The GCC + Egypt, Jordan and Morocco form today the bulwark against Iranian ambitions and Turkish interferences into the matters of the Middle East. Israel, remains a separate case to be dealt with through the US and not in spite of it. Therefore, the Sunni Monarchies (as we posit that Gen. Sisi in Egypt is a virtual monarch) have appealed to the US and presented their case for a renewed partnership. Some critics have mocked this as a ‘coalition of the billing’ not ‘of the willing’, a jibe to the multi-billion dollar pledges that Pres. Trump has secured from Saudi alone. However, after being shaken to the core by the Obama’s administration pivot towards Iran and in favor of the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt and Turkey, these Sunni Monarchies have no reason and probably no option, but to throw their lot with the current US administration.

Iran is encircling the Arabs in the Gulf from Yemen to Bahrain, and is fighting fiercely in Iraq and Syria whilst taking Lebanon as hostage. Turkey is still aiding and abetting the Muslim Brotherhood –and some say ISIS or other versions thereof- despite a staunch opposition by Egypt and the UAE and the public outrage of Saudi. Russia is back on the scene and is meddling in Syria, Libya and in the oil markets. The British and French armies are a pale shadow of their glorious past, whilst current-day EU is hardly paying its 2% in GDP contribution to NATO. So sending ships to defend the Arab nations is not within the realm of the possible.

One can easily mock the Arabs for paying a tribute to Sheriff Donald, or criticize his dancing with a sword in a Bedouin garb, or lament the purchase of weapon systems that would not be used by their end users, and denounce the rounding up of 50 heads of States to Hail the new Cesar. However, Arab nations have lived under Mogul and Ottoman Empires, British and French mandates, Persian dominion and Israeli occupation. Seeking a security umbrella from the US, one of the few nations who never waged a war of conquest, is neither defeatist nor novel. Japan and Germany have lived under such protection since the end of world war II, so did the Philippines and so does Korea. Today the proud nations of the EU whilst scorning Pres. Trump for quitting the Paris Climate Agreement are crying out for him not to view NATO as obsolete. So, pragmatism in State affairs is global and fear from belligerent neighbors be it North Korea for the South, or Russia for Europe or Iran and Turkey for the Arab world, is legitimate. The actions of the Sunni Monarchies should not solicit outcries or scorn but praise for rational, cold, calculating thinking.

Machiavelli, once counseling an Italian prince in 1513 wrote” It is necessary for him who lays out a state and arranges laws for it to presuppose that all men are evil and that they are always going to act according to the wickedness of their spirits whenever they have free scope”. Funny, he could have been counseling an Arab prince in 2017.