Iran’s Anschluss is Complete

Iran has won, for now. One can use different terms to assuage the affliction, apply various expressions to disguise the truth, or employ softer words to fabricate an alternative reality. The fact remains that since 9/11 2001, Iran has been feeding off the colossal foreign policy mistakes of successive US administrations, including the present one. From the invasion of Afghanistan to that of Iraq, and from the Iran Nuclear Agreement to the hands-off approach in the Syrian civil war, right down to the muted encouragement of Iran’s internal opposition. How can it be that a nation that has been a superpower since World War II, the effective leader of the Western Alliance, the home to numerous think tanks, universities and research centers, a government with top intelligence-gathering agencies and networks, got it so wrong and still is not getting it at all?

There could be few explanations that we will entertain in our attempt to elucidate this riddle. One of them is that the US was blindsided by its quest to eradicate Al Qaeda and later ISIS to concentrate on Iran. Afghanistan was a daring endeavor, Iraq a massive invasion, and many battles in-between have all but consumed the attention and focus of the US polity and military to attend to Iranian-sponsored terrorism. A plausible explanation, except that the US has had enmity with the Iranian regime since 1978, which precedes 9/11 by 23 years. Every US administration, since Carter has had its run-ins with the Mullahs. The exception was Obama who kowtowed to them in an effort to appear more balanced in the grand Sunni-Shia divide and the Muslim world at large. Hoping to win some goodwill, erase America’s ‘ugly past’ and vindicate an undeserved Nobel Peace Prize, Obama handed the Middle East to Iran -not on a silver tray only but with planeloads of cash. Blaming it all on the Obama administration is not only fair but well deserved, however, the seeds of the Iranian bloom were planted by Georges W. Bush and the miscalculations of his neocon acolytes, especially in the Iraq war. They were obsessed with Saddam and the elusive Chemical Weapons and relied on local charlatans such as Ahmad Chalabi and his gang to guide them through the Iraqi swampland. Every move and action taken by the interim US authority from the dismissal of the Iraqi Armed Forces, to the witch-hunting of former Baathist members, to the utter neglect of Iranian influence over political parties led to Iran’s hegemony over Iraq.

Lebanon had fell under Iranian influence right in the aftermath of the war with Israel in 2006. Having been accused of the murder of PM Rafic Hariri, both the Syrian regime and Iranian proxies had retreated and retrenched in 2005. Provoking a military clash with Israel was a perfect excuse for claiming back the mantra of ‘Resistance’ and reasserting political influence through the barrel of a gun, as preached by Mao Tse Tung. Following such devastating war which left Lebanon in tatters and Israel intact in its borders, economy and armed capacities, Iran concentrated on consolidating its power and influence over the weakened and failed State of Lebanon. Fast forward, with the election of President Michel Aoun in 2016, that takeover is complete. Any minority dissent is being muzzled as the political establishment, all religions confounded, has been effortlessly domesticated.

In Syria, what started as an aid to the Assad regime in 2011, ended-up at present as a forward base for Iran right-smack on the Eastern Mediterranean. The presence of some 80,000 fighters that swore allegiance to Iran is reported with a degree of certitude as are numerous ground and air bases scattered all over the Syrian landscape. From such bases Iran can project its influence and connect its forces -by land- from Terran to the Golan heights or South Lebanon, unhinged, unchallenged and undeterred. Simply put, Iran is the new hegemon of the Middle East without contest.

The prelude of an Iran-Israel war is on the horizon...

Iran has won, for now. One can use different terms to assuage the affliction, apply various expressions to disguise the truth, or employ softer words to fabricate an alternative reality. The fact remains that since 9/11 2001, Iran has been feeding off the colossal foreign policy mistakes of successive US administrations, including the present one. From the invasion of Afghanistan to that of Iraq, and from the Iran Nuclear Agreement to the hands-off approach in the Syrian civil war, right down to the muted encouragement of Iran’s internal opposition. How can it be that a nation that has been a superpower since World War II, the effective leader of the Western Alliance, the home to numerous think tanks, universities and research centers, a government with top intelligence-gathering agencies and networks, got it so wrong and still is not getting it at all?

There could be few explanations that we will entertain in our attempt to elucidate this riddle. One of them is that the US was blindsided by its quest to eradicate Al Qaeda and later ISIS to concentrate on Iran. Afghanistan was a daring endeavor, Iraq a massive invasion, and many battles in-between have all but consumed the attention and focus of the US polity and military to attend to Iranian-sponsored terrorism. A plausible explanation, except that the US has had enmity with the Iranian regime since 1978, which precedes 9/11 by 23 years. Every US administration, since Carter has had its run-ins with the Mullahs. The exception was Obama who kowtowed to them in an effort to appear more balanced in the grand Sunni-Shia divide and the Muslim world at large. Hoping to win some goodwill, erase America’s ‘ugly past’ and vindicate an undeserved Nobel Peace Prize, Obama handed the Middle East to Iran -not on a silver tray only but with planeloads of cash. Blaming it all on the Obama administration is not only fair but well deserved, however, the seeds of the Iranian bloom were planted by Georges W. Bush and the miscalculations of his neocon acolytes, especially in the Iraq war. They were obsessed with Saddam and the elusive Chemical Weapons and relied on local charlatans such as Ahmad Chalabi and his gang to guide them through the Iraqi swampland. Every move and action taken by the interim US authority from the dismissal of the Iraqi Armed Forces, to the witch-hunting of former Baathist members, to the utter neglect of Iranian influence over political parties led to Iran’s hegemony over Iraq.

Lebanon had fell under Iranian influence right in the aftermath of the war with Israel in 2006. Having been accused of the murder of PM Rafic Hariri, both the Syrian regime and Iranian proxies had retreated and retrenched in 2005. Provoking a military clash with Israel was a perfect excuse for claiming back the mantra of ‘Resistance’ and reasserting political influence through the barrel of a gun, as preached by Mao Tse Tung. Following such devastating war which left Lebanon in tatters and Israel intact in its borders, economy and armed capacities, Iran concentrated on consolidating its power and influence over the weakened and failed State of Lebanon. Fast forward, with the election of President Michel Aoun in 2016, that takeover is complete. Any minority dissent is being muzzled as the political establishment, all religions confounded, has been effortlessly domesticated.

In Syria, what started as an aid to the Assad regime in 2011, ended-up at present as a forward base for Iran right-smack on the Eastern Mediterranean. The presence of some 80,000 fighters that swore allegiance to Iran is reported with a degree of certitude as are numerous ground and air bases scattered all over the Syrian landscape. From such bases Iran can project its influence and connect its forces -by land- from Terran to the Golan heights or South Lebanon, unhinged, unchallenged and undeterred. Simply put, Iran is the new hegemon of the Middle East without contest.

The prelude of an Iran-Israel war is on the horizon as witnessed during last week over the Syrian, and Israeli skies. Now that Israel’s peace is imminently at risk, the US is taking the Iranian threat more seriously. The fact that Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, three Arab nations, are controlled by Iranian militias seems not a strategic menace to US interests in the Middle East. The suffering of civilian populations, the catastrophic refugee crisis, the eradication of borders, the failure of states and armies to uphold law and order within and outside their boundaries, were not judged a sufficient danger to the US and its allies in the region.

Now that the US has nurtured and complacently watched this Iranian dragon grow and roar, it is going to be captivating to view how this bloody tale will end.