Barbarians at the Gate: the Middle East Revisited

Palestine is no more the central issue of the Middle East, it remains an important one though. For the GCC, Iran is the real threat, whilst Israel takes second place. For Turkey, under the heavy-handed rule of President Erdogan, secularism and the Kurds are the main challenges. For Iran, its dominant role in the region and its aching need to be perceived by all powers, chief among them the US, as the only regional power capable of delivering stability is the main mission, and the one to ensure continuity of the Mullahs’ regime. For Iraq getting back on track, eradicating corruption, patching sectarian divisions, and pumping oil at pre-war levels are key to its survival. For Algeria, finding a balance between a decaying military junta and the needs of a younger population that demands a greater role in this energy-rich country will be cause for headaches for years to come. For Egypt, regaining normalcy, whatever that term means in the local context, will keep the Generals up at night, the pens of government-paid journalists flowing, and the terrorists busy in the foreseeable future. Syria’s fate is being decided in Sochi, Geneva and some other less known venues where larger powers are dividing up the spoils of a terrible conflict. Ah, and there is tiny Lebanon! That country sandwiched between Syria and Israel and shackled by a mountain of debt, hounded by a kleptocratic ruling class, and weakened by years of religious wars.

In this part of the world, the Cold War is terribly missed. Long gone are the days when the former USSR commanded a camp and the US protected another. The ideological divide of the Cold War took precedent over the nationalistic and religious fault lines that prevail at the present time. Socialism was in fashion in Cairo, Bagdad, Damascus and Tripoli not ISIS, or the Sunni-Shia divide, or the hegemonic ambitions of less relevant regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. Capitalism thrived in Tunis, Beirut and other capitals that saw a rapprochement with the West (now an outdated political terminology) as a means to join the modern world and improve the prospects of their nations. A precursor to joining the globalization process, one could imagine. However, despite the harsh demarcation lines between regional countries, the so-called super powers maintained a modicum of calm and stability and ensured that red lines were seldom crossed. Surely, there were the Arab-Israeli wars, hardly a walk in the park or a sign of tranquility. Still said wars had referees: the US and the former USSR who could be counted on to calm nerves, enforce cease fires and even bring protagonists back from the front lines and into the UN to air their grievances. Demarcation lines were drawn up, demilitarized zones were established, and a cautious quiet was reinstated. Granted, the school yard was never trouble-free, but the headmasters aka super powers, were not too far from the skirmishes, ready to step-in and save the day. They needed their client nations to remain whole, to avoid disintegration, to steer away from internal strife, to keep religious discourse at a minimum, and to heed their authority when required.

With the fall of the Berlin wall and the receding role of the former USSR, compounded by the fumbling years of the Bush and Obama administrations, the children –so to speak- took charge of the school, and all hell broke loose. Bullies namely, Iran and Turkey pretended to be legitimate heirs  of the former powers. Terror groups spread their poisonous rhetoric claiming it would bring believers onto the promised land (literally and figuratively). Peaceful and resource-rich countries sought alliances wherever they could find them and, more often than usual, were saddled with disappointing outcomes. All told, the puzzle was tossed on the ground shattering its tiny and fragile pieces all over the floor.

In ancient history, the Battle of Carthage was a siege that ended in the spring of 146 BC with the sack and complete destru...

Palestine is no more the central issue of the Middle East, it remains an important one though. For the GCC, Iran is the real threat, whilst Israel takes second place. For Turkey, under the heavy-handed rule of President Erdogan, secularism and the Kurds are the main challenges. For Iran, its dominant role in the region and its aching need to be perceived by all powers, chief among them the US, as the only regional power capable of delivering stability is the main mission, and the one to ensure continuity of the Mullahs’ regime. For Iraq getting back on track, eradicating corruption, patching sectarian divisions, and pumping oil at pre-war levels are key to its survival. For Algeria, finding a balance between a decaying military junta and the needs of a younger population that demands a greater role in this energy-rich country will be cause for headaches for years to come. For Egypt, regaining normalcy, whatever that term means in the local context, will keep the Generals up at night, the pens of government-paid journalists flowing, and the terrorists busy in the foreseeable future. Syria’s fate is being decided in Sochi, Geneva and some other less known venues where larger powers are dividing up the spoils of a terrible conflict. Ah, and there is tiny Lebanon! That country sandwiched between Syria and Israel and shackled by a mountain of debt, hounded by a kleptocratic ruling class, and weakened by years of religious wars.

In this part of the world, the Cold War is terribly missed. Long gone are the days when the former USSR commanded a camp and the US protected another. The ideological divide of the Cold War took precedent over the nationalistic and religious fault lines that prevail at the present time. Socialism was in fashion in Cairo, Bagdad, Damascus and Tripoli not ISIS, or the Sunni-Shia divide, or the hegemonic ambitions of less relevant regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. Capitalism thrived in Tunis, Beirut and other capitals that saw a rapprochement with the West (now an outdated political terminology) as a means to join the modern world and improve the prospects of their nations. A precursor to joining the globalization process, one could imagine. However, despite the harsh demarcation lines between regional countries, the so-called super powers maintained a modicum of calm and stability and ensured that red lines were seldom crossed. Surely, there were the Arab-Israeli wars, hardly a walk in the park or a sign of tranquility. Still said wars had referees: the US and the former USSR who could be counted on to calm nerves, enforce cease fires and even bring protagonists back from the front lines and into the UN to air their grievances. Demarcation lines were drawn up, demilitarized zones were established, and a cautious quiet was reinstated. Granted, the school yard was never trouble-free, but the headmasters aka super powers, were not too far from the skirmishes, ready to step-in and save the day. They needed their client nations to remain whole, to avoid disintegration, to steer away from internal strife, to keep religious discourse at a minimum, and to heed their authority when required.

With the fall of the Berlin wall and the receding role of the former USSR, compounded by the fumbling years of the Bush and Obama administrations, the children –so to speak- took charge of the school, and all hell broke loose. Bullies namely, Iran and Turkey pretended to be legitimate heirs  of the former powers. Terror groups spread their poisonous rhetoric claiming it would bring believers onto the promised land (literally and figuratively). Peaceful and resource-rich countries sought alliances wherever they could find them and, more often than usual, were saddled with disappointing outcomes. All told, the puzzle was tossed on the ground shattering its tiny and fragile pieces all over the floor.

In ancient history, the Battle of Carthage was a siege that ended in the spring of 146 BC with the sack and complete destruction of the city by the Roman Republic. The Roman general Scipio Aemilianus besieged Carthage for three years until it fell. After sacking the city, the Romans burned it to the ground, leaving not one stone on top of another. Scipio declared that the fate of Carthage might one day be Rome’s. In other words, he was lamenting that the only worthy rival of Rome was no more. Now Rome had to deal with a multitude of warring nations, opposing ethnic groups, clans and tribes of all sorts, and in the end Barbarian hordes conquered and ruled Rome in 476 BC.

Back to the present, the US must welcome Russia’s interference in the Middle East and vice versa lest they are bent on leaving it to be ruled Barbarian style.