Ep57 – The Fog of War or the Fog of Propaganda?

This week, Stefan and Scott wade back into current events to talk about the war between Russia and Ukraine. But, unlike seemingly everyone on social media, we aren't here to tell you what to think. Instead, we give you some tools to analyze the deluge of information and reach your own, honest conclusion.

Is Putin a madman hellbent on nuking the world, or is Ukraine's friendliness towards the west threatened Russia's security? After listening to this episode, you won't need Twidiots to tell you what to think. You'll learn to use models such as probabilistic thinking, circle of competence, and reversibility, to decide for yourself.

As always, we're building a community around Mentally Unscripted. So, share this episode with your friends and interact with us at MentallyUnscripted.com.

And remember, the conclusion you reach is less important than the process you follow to get there.

Resources

* TK News by Matt Taibi

* Wag the Dog

* Glenn Greenwald Substack

* “When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” ― Frederic Bastiat

Mental Models

* Pick your trusted sources

* Probabilistic thinking

* Heuristics

* Long-Tail Risks

* Past performance is not a predictor of future performance

* Don’t let a good crisis go to waste

* Incentives matter

* Circle of competence

* Accountability

* Reversibility

* Second-order consequences

* Compound decisions

* Decision nexus

* Short-term vs long-term thinking

* Competency crisis

Top Takeaways

* We need to learn how to navigate through an information war.

* Heuristics are useful shortcuts or rules of thumb to help us make decisions. To use them effectively, you must understand when your heuristics are wrong.

* We don’t need to consider every last bit of information. Our models must, however, incorporate the information most critical to reaching a strong conclusion.

Comments or Questions on this episode? Join the conversation at the Mentally Unscripted Substack.Engage with Stefan and Scott on the Twitter thought control machine. Scott is also on Instagram and rants and raves on his blog, Strength and Reason.Feel free to email him with questions, comments, or suggestions.We're also on Odysee. Rumble is coming as soon as Scott gets off his butt and uploads the podcasts.