Enter the Year of the Dragon! Our predictions for 2024

Dairy
Herd will eventually stabilize and start to grow again
We will begin 2024 with 50,000 fewer heifers than we did in 2023
Milk output will begin to grow again by spring flush
Buyers should be defensive and buy into weakness to extend coverage

Cocoa
Fundamentals are only now starting to catch up to the price move we have already seen
Lag in arrivals and projected deficit is growing as we near the mid-point of the main-crop
More price increases by large branded companies are expected as cocoa continues to trade at 47-year highs
High prices will cause demand destruction manifest in retail sales figures

Economy & energy
First rate reduction at June FOMC: 100bp total 2024
Core CPI falls to 3% and holds
GDP averages closer to 1%, maybe a slight negative quarter mixed in
S&P makes new record high, but returns come back down to earth in the 6-8% range
Crude oil breaks the $68 soft floor and averages $65 despite an EIA forecast of $78

Sugar
# 11 sugar will trade up to mid-20s before coming back to current levels
# 16 market will remain just below High Tier imports
2025 sugar negotiations will mirror 2024 negotiations

Corn
Acreage may lose to soybeans
Ethanol demand stalls
Exports robust
Ending stocks remain over 2.0 billion bushels

Wheat
U.S. crop to reach 2 billion bushels next year, despite fewer planted acres
Global stocks recover: 267 to 270 MMT
La Niña watch in late 2024

Edible oils
Soybean oil use for biofuel to reach or surpass 13.4 billion lbs
Despite this, soybean oil futures may finally meet their “new normal”: listen for that number!

McKeany-Flavell’s Spring Market Seminar coming April 17, 2024!
Mark your calendars, registration opens in January!

Happy New Year!

Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO
Expert: Jeffrey Rasinski, Consultant
Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Risk Management
Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
Expert: Eric Thornton, Commodity Specialist
Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services