MarketBeat Minute(2023-12-21)

Equity markets reversed course on Wednesday, ending a steady string of advances with a 1.5% decline. The move was driven by fear the Fed would not cut rates early in 2024 but would hold off until mid-year or later. The latest CPI report showed inflation cooler than before but holding steady near double the FOMC 2.0% target, a level inconsistent with the idea of interest rate cuts. The November PCE Index is due on Friday and may confirm stabilizing inflation at a higher-than-normal rate, a scenario sure to keep the FOMC in a hawkish stance for the next few meetings.

The S&P 500 is unlikely to move higher without a significant change in the outlook. The PCE data could do it, but it may take more than one data point to sway the Fed. This means high-interest rates and their impact on housing and consumer markets will remain in place. With the outlook for S&P 500 earnings growth in a quick retreat, it is likely the market will enter another correction in the first half of 2024 and could shed 10% to 20% before it is through.