The Road to 2020

When you're looking forward on the road to 2020, only 39% say they're voting for President Trump. Definitely, 28. Probably, 11. Right, and you've got 42% saying they're going to vote for the Democrat, you've got 9% voting for an independent, and 10% unsure. So no clear winner, but for an incumbent president with a good economy and 3.7% unemployment to have only 39% saying that they're going to vote to re-elect you is a real weakness, and suggests it's going to be a very tight presidential race, probably with Trump having to overcome kind of the deficit he's got right now in terms of his personal dislike.

Because we ask a question, when you think of Donald Trump, do you like or dislike him personally? Dislike him, 60%. Like him, 29%. Unsure, 11. That means in order to get elected, he has to have a lot of people voting for him, who in some sense hold their nose and say, "He's doing a good job on the economy, but I don't like him." And that's something we have rarely, if ever, seen to the extent that it's true for the personal profile of President Trump.

But, if I compare emerging messages, a presidential candidate who stands for lower taxes and reduced government regulations, strengthening our military, strengthening our border to reduce illegal immigrants, standing up more to China and Iran, and seeking better trade deals for the US, 60% prefer that message frame over a presidential candidate who stands for the Green New Deal on climate change, Medicare for all, free college tuition, opening our borders to many more immigrants, and raising taxes to pay for those programs. That may or may not be what a Democrat runs on, but those are all issues that have been talked about on the Democratic side by multiple candidates. If that is the issue face off, 60% favor the candidate on the first side, and only 40% favor it on the other side.

If you look issue by issue, wow. 89% want to see better trade deals for the US. I think that President Trump has taken an issue that was of little interest to most Americans, and really raised it up as one that they now see as quite important to the economic structure and to getting the jobs in America. Lowering taxes, opposed by only 15% and favored by 85. Standing up to China, strengthening our military, strengthening our border, 70%. Reducing government regulations, almost 70%.

But, a Green New Deal on climate change, 65% want some kind of change like that. 50 ... and if you look at it, 55, 60% like Medicare for all. Free college tuition, almost 60%. But raising taxes to pay for those programs, many of these programs have been outlined as multi-trillion-dollar programs, only 36% would do that. And opening the borders to more immigrants, only 36% would do that. So, you see that both sides have some popular issues and programs, although seeking better trade deals surprisingly is at the top of the list. You also see the weaknesses in both of those sides, but if they're put together in the issue sandwiches that we placed in the questions, you see that the Republicans and Trump have an issue edge, and a personality deficit.

Who would you most likely vote for in the Democratic primary? We have it Joe Biden at one, in the low 30s. We have Elizabeth Warren at third, but coming up. And we have Bernie Sanders really coming in second. Not a lot of change, I think you're seeing the race between Sanders and Warren continue to tighten in our poll and others. Kamala Harris is fourth. Buttigieg, the mayor from Indiana is then fifth. Beto O'Rourke with a few points, and no one else really scoring any significant votes. So, this race, no matter how many people are up there on the stage, has already narrowed essentially to a four or five-person race. However, 62% find the current set of candidates underwhelming.

Which of the candidates has the best chance to beat Donald Trump? Joe Biden, number one. Bernie Sanders much lower, Elizabeth Warren even lower, Kamala Harris even lower&