A Red Reckoning After The "Wave" That "Fizzled" - Post-Midterm Election Debrief

Each month, presidential pollster, Harris Poll Chairman and Stagwell Global Chairman & CEO MARK PENN and BOB CUSACK,  Editor in Chief of The Hill discuss the findings of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. This survey was conducted online within the United States from November 16-17, 2022 among 2,212 registered voters. When asked by Cusack to summarize the first poll conducted after 2022 Midterm Elections, Penn offered "FIZZLE".  Download the FULL POLL and TRANSCRIPT.

Democrats outperformed expectations in the midterms as they closed the turnout gap by taking advantage of early voting and driving their core issues of protecting democracy and abortion to be most salient after the economy. On the Republican side, Florida governor Ron DeSantis emerged as a big winner. His support in a 2024 GOP primary increased by 11 points among GOP voters while Donald Trump’s fell 9 points, although Trump still leads with 46%.

Looking ahead to the new government, a strong majority of voters want to curb Congressional spending, and support for Ukraine is fracturing as Republicans and Independents increasingly soften on the rising price tag of supporting the war.

Other key findings include:

MIDTERM RESULTS

 DEMOCRATS MADE UP THE TURNOUT DEFICIT

Democrats closed the gap from the pre-election poll which had Likely Voters +3 for the GOP and Registered Voters tied 50-50Democrats took advantage of the early and absentee vote: 52% of Democrats voted before Election Day, compared to 45% of Republicans.One third of Independents sat out the election.Democrats successfully highlighted their core issues: the economy was the most important issue across the board (42%), but protecting democracy (18%) and abortion (16%) were next.

UNHAPPINESS WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN PLACE

President Biden’s approval is flat at 43 percent.4 in 10 voters believe the country is in a recession, and another 4 in 10 think it will be in a recession next year.

AMERICAN PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT CONGRESS

VOTERS WANT MODERATE SENSIBLE POLICIES

Roughly 80% of voters agree they want to reduce misinformation on the Internet and curb Congressional spending.Voters want the parties to moderate themselves: 62% think the Democrats have moved too far to the left, and 56% think the Republicans have moved too far to the right.

VOTERS EXPECT A SLATE OF INVESTIGATIONS FROM THE NEW HOUSE

Voters want more clarity on possible political bias: Strong majorities think the House should investigate the Hunter Biden laptop (65%), whether technology companies have been censoring political speech (74%), and whether politics have been affecting the FBI’s actions (77%).The January 6 committee continues to be unpopular: 62% of voters want the House to end it.

UKRAINE SUPPORT IS SOFTENING

Support for costly aid packages is decreasing among Republicans and Independents: 61% of Republicans and 59% of Independents oppose providing another $27 billion in aid to Ukraine.