Economic Outlook

Let's take a deeper dive into some of the economic numbers, and see what Americans think the future is going to hold. Six months from now, do you think that we're going to be in a recession? 42% think that. 35% think that it's going to be the same as now, and 24% think it's going to be improving. So depending upon how you look at it, there's 59% that think it's going to be as good as it is now if not better, and 42% who are more pessimistic about the outcome of the economy.

If we ask them to rate the strength of the economy today, on a zero to 10 scale, almost no one says zero, one, two, or three. Pretty low numbers. Not that many people say 10, only 5% say 10. And if you look at it, most people are in the five, six, seven, eight range, which means they think the economy is good to very good. How would you rate business conditions today? Very good 14, good 32, normal 37, bad 15, very bad only two. So only 17% think business conditions are bad or very bad, which is a pretty good number. Remember the American public doesn't ever go over the top about the economy, but these ratings were all consistent with the view of the economy as in very good shape.

Would you say jobs in the United States today are plentiful? 47%, not so plentiful 39, hard to get 14. That's a pretty great number on plentiful. I don't think I've ever seen Americans think of jobs as plentiful on that large a scale. And then in general, we asked them are you concerned or not concerned that there'll be an economic recession in the next six months? 55% have some concern. 46% have no concern. Just another way of asking that question, there's somewhere between 42% and this number of 55%, of people who are concerned, have heard the recession message, and are thinking wow, will that occur? And we haven't seen any actions in the consumer marketplace so far that indicate that people are acting this way, but we're going to keep a very close watch.

So would you say that business conditions in the U.S. in six months will be better, worse, or the same? The same 41, better 22, worse 37. Would you say there will be more, fewer, or about the same number of jobs in six months? Again, very similar pie. Same 38, fewer 36, more 26. That's about consistently around 36%, that 37%, that are showing a very high level of pessimism, and the rest being relatively optimistic. Finally, do you expect your income to increase, decrease, or remain the same in the next six months? 56% remain the same, 27% increase, 17% decrease. Now, this is an interesting question, because it shows that people are more confident about their own incomes in the next six months than they are about the rest of the economy. And I've always found that personal confidence is really the most important driver of attitudes towards the economy, and how people really act in their own lives as opposed to what they think the macro environment it, which tends to be driven much more by the stock market, news events, and what they hear in their community.

Who do they blame for the recent volatility in the stock markets and fears of a new economic recession? U.S., China trade tensions. They are very surprisingly well-informed about that. Trump's announcements are second. Troubles from other economies are third. Do you approve or disapprove of Trump's criticism of the federal reserve? 55% disapprove. But people think that the federal reserve should not just focus on monetary policy, but on fostering growth. And in the mix of things with the U.S. trade negotiations going on, with President Trump's pressure on the fed, President Trump owns the economy. And when you ask who would you blame if the U.S. economy enters a recession next year? 54% Trump, 35% the fed, only 11% other. He gets possibly not all of the benefit of the good economy, but he certainly will get the downside of a bad one.