2020 Horse Race

Let's turn to the 2020 primary. I think that's almost taken a backseat to all of the other news that's going on, but there's no question in our poll, just like the other polls other there, Elizabeth Warren has become the one to watch. Joe Biden continues to hang onto his lead at 28%, down from the low 30s over time here. He has very strong vote among senior Democrats, and among African American Democrats, but Elizabeth Warren has been broadening her constituency. She really does very well with well-educated progressives. She is almost the elite candidate, but she's growing and she's trying to broaden her base. And she's trying to eat into the more youthful base that Bernie Sanders has had since Bernie Sanders was the first to really introduce the idea of free college out there on the stump the last time he ran.

Kamala Harris at 6%, Mayor Pete at 3%, no one else really getting above 3%. So this race really has telescoped to three, four, maybe five candidates. I don't see Yang or O'Rourke really breaking out of their base. There's a lot of organized youth support, I think, for Mayor Pete. Kamala Harris will have some good opportunities in California, and the strength of her organization will be tested. I think she still has to come back from her debate performances that have set her back from the initial attack on Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders, again a little weaker this time out than people thought. Warren, the one who's on the move. And Biden, despite everyone throwing everything at him, has so far been able to hold onto his lead.

61%, however, are underwhelmed with the slate of candidates, and it's still technically possible for a Bloomberg or Hilary Clinton to jump back in here over the next couple of weeks. Hilary Clinton's more active on stump, and Bloomberg certainly had considered running before, and he might well consider it again. That's the thing about Democratic primaries, just when you think you know how they're going to come out, events can overtake what your predictions are and shake the whole race up. In this case though, no one is getting close to 50%. You have to watch closely Biden, and whether or not he continues to erode, and whether Warren can break out from the 17% she's now garnered.

Biden is definitely seen in the mid 30s, 34% as the candidate who has the best chance of winning against Donald Trump. That sinks to 12% for Sanders. 11% for Warren. No one else gets a significant vote on that. I don't know. It's always an interesting question. Whoever gets the nomination, by definition, has the best chance of beating President Trump. And we've seen in the past some really ... This question has been off. A lot of people thought McCain and Romney were both put in very strong races against President Obama, and it really didn't turn out to be the case. Other candidates might have been stronger. No one thought, really, Donald Trump was a strong enough candidate to defeat Hilary Clinton.

Right now, Donald Trump continues to underperform in terms of having a solid base for reelection. He is at 38% definitely or probably vote for Trump. For someone, at this point, coming in an incumbent with such a strong economy, that is a troublesome performance for Trump. It shows that he's got some significant vulnerabilities. The percentage that will probably or definitely vote for a Democrat, though, is at 44. So, still not close a majority, but it means that Trump would have to take most of the Independent voters, most of the undecided to catch up there, which means that this is mostly about Donald Trump versus Donald Trump at this point.