We’re (still) not in a recession. Right?

Spoiler alert: We’re not in a recession. But maybe one is on the way.

That debate reignited last week after the yield curve inverted, again. As we’ve talked about on the show, inverted yield curves can be a warning sign.

“A lot of this is psychological. It’s a lot about what you think is going on, not necessarily what is going on,” said Todd Knoop, professor of economics at Cornell College and author of “Business Cycle Economics: Understanding Recessions and Depressions From Boom to Bust.”

While the National Bureau of Economic Research has the final word on whether we’re in a recession, today we’re asking: If recessions are a regular part of the economy, why are they so hard to predict? Knoop breaks it down. Plus, we dig into the psychology of recessions and why they could become self-fulling prophecies.

In the News Fix, Kai gives a lesson in how to decode the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Plus, Kimberly gets an up-close look at the ongoing supply chain crisis.

And for this week’s answer to the Make Me Smart question, a listener explains what potty training her kids taught her about creating new habits.

Here’s everything we talked about today:

“The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession” from The Washington Post
“Another Yield Curve Inversion Rings Recession Alarm Bells” from The New York Times
“GDP report shows U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter, but recession fears loom” from The Washington Post
“Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path” from The Wall Street Journal
“Mississippi River has dropped to record-low levels amid severe drought” from CNN
“America Is Facing a Dramatic Diesel Shortage That Could Get Even Worse” from Business Insider

Join us for tomorrow for Whaddaya Wanna Know Wednesday. If you have a question you’d like the hosts to answer in a future episode, leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART or email [email protected].