Episode 188: Nate Silver
Longform
English - April 13, 2016 15:23 - 56 minutes - ★★★★★ - 1.7K ratingsNews Arts Books interview journalism longform Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the author of The Signal and the Noise.
“I know in a perfectly rational world, if you make an 80/20 prediction, people should know that not only will this prediction not be right all the time, but you did something wrong if it’s never wrong. The 20% underdog should come through sometimes. People in sports understand that sometimes a 15 seed beats a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s much harder to explain to people in politics.”
Thanks to MailChimp, Bombas, Squarespace, and Trunk Club for sponsoring this week's episode.
Show Notes:
@NateSilver538
fivethirtyeight.com
Silver on Longform
[2:00] FiveThirtyEight Podcasts
[2:00] "Why The Dean Scream Sounded So Different On TV" (Jody Avirgan, Clare Malone • FiveThirtyEight)
[10:00] The Burrito Bracket
[12:00] Silver’s Daily Kos Archive
[19:00] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t (Penguin Books • 2012)
[19:00] "FiveThirtyEight’s 2012 Forecast" (New York Times • Nov 2012)
[45:00] "Donald Trump Is the World’s Greatest Troll" (FiveThirtyEight • Jul 2015)
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Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the author of The Signal and the Noise.
“I know in a perfectly rational world, if you make an 80/20 prediction, people should know that not only will this prediction not be right all the time, but you did something wrong if it’s never wrong. The 20% underdog should come through sometimes. People in sports understand that sometimes a 15 seed beats a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s much harder to explain to people in politics.”
Thanks to MailChimp, Bombas, Squarespace, and Trunk Club for sponsoring this week's episode.
Show Notes:
@NateSilver538
fivethirtyeight.com
Silver on Longform
[2:00] FiveThirtyEight Podcasts
[2:00] "Why The Dean Scream Sounded So Different On TV" (Jody Avirgan, Clare Malone • FiveThirtyEight)
[10:00] The Burrito Bracket
[12:00] Silver’s Daily Kos Archive
[19:00] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t (Penguin Books • 2012)
[19:00] "FiveThirtyEight’s 2012 Forecast" (New York Times • Nov 2012)
[45:00] "Donald Trump Is the World’s Greatest Troll" (FiveThirtyEight • Jul 2015)
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices